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Friday :: February 22, 2008

Number Crunching the WaPo Texas-Ohio Poll

The Washington Post and ABC have released their poll of likely Democratic voters in Texas and Ohio , taken Feb. 16 to 20. As the article says, Hillary is slightly ahead in Ohio and she and Obama are essentially tied in Texas.

The polling data behind the poll is here. I see some different patterns.

In Ohio. 72% said they would vote for Hillary while 70% said they would vote for Obama. 27% percent of these voters said they would definitely vote for Hillary, 11% could change their mind, and 16% said it was unlikely they'd change their mind.

For Obama, 70% said they were definitely going for Obama, 14% said they were could change their mind an 9% said they were unlikely to change. [More...]

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Texas Debate: The Morning After

Now for the post-mortem. Will Hillary see a bounce in Texas and Ohio? Was her final statement of pride in being with Obama a signal that if she loses Texas and Ohio, she'll gracefully step aside? Will Texas and Ohio bring it home for her so she can stay in through Pennsylvania and keep her superdelegates happy?

I have no answers, all I can tell you is the TV pundits don't either. Most of them watched a different debate than I did.

The debate transcript is here. This will be our fourth and final thread on the Texas debate.

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Thursday :: February 21, 2008

Late Night: Post Debate Thread II

(Comments now closed, new thread is here.)

Via No Quarter:

We're having server issues due to traffic spikes or something like that. While Colin, our webmaster works on it, here's a new thread to discuss the debate and other topics.

I also have to finish deleting the insults and personal sniping from the first debate threads.

Please, keep it civil. We are almost at the end of this interminably long primary process, with just a few weeks to go. There are two remaining candidates. State your opinions without rancor.

Update: Debate transcript is here.

(195 comments) Permalink :: Comments

Texas Post-Debate Live Thread

(Comments closed here. New thread is here.)

The debate's over. Who won? What did you think?

Update: (Big Tent Democrat): I thought Hillary whupped him good. David Gergen thought it was even until Hillary's last answer, he thinks it was her best moment of the campaign. I don't see it. Go figure. Watching more of the pundits, they really have no idea what to say anymore. They really are useless. But who cares what they think?

Poll below.

(202 comments) Permalink :: Comments

Hillary-Obama Texas Debate: Live Blog I

Update: Post debate thread here. Comments closing on this one.

The Austin, TX CNN Debate starts in 5 minutes. Big Tent Democrat and I are live-blogging using our live-blog software.

You can comment same as always in the comment section below. You also can send us live messages through the software. Only comments you post below will appear on the site. For a reminder of what it looks like, see our L.A. Debate thread.

I'll be putting up some polls during it to see how you think the candidates and questioners are doing. His posts will say BTD and mine will be TL.

The live blog stays below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

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Texas Democrats Debate: Pre-Debate Thread

Here's a pre-debate thread for CNN's debate tonight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Until it starts, please post your comments on tonight's debate, expectations, predicitions, etc. here.

The live blog, once it starts, will be here.

(49 comments) Permalink :: Comments

A Columist Supporting Obama Expresses Doubts

Buyer's Remorse is setting in for Boston Herald columnist Margery Eagan, who has often criticized Hillary and says she supports Obama. Read the whole thing, but here are some snippets:

I’m nervous because too many Obama-philes sound like Moonies, or Hare Krishnas...These true believers “Obama-ize” everything. They speak Obama-ese. Knit for Obama. Run for Obama. Gamble - Hold ’Em Barack! - for Obama. They make Obama cakes, underwear, jewelry. They send Valentine cards reading, “I want to Barack your world!”

Even better:

Oh - I’m nervous because it’s all gone to his head and he hasn’t even won yet. I’m nervous because it’s gone to a lot of other people’s heads as well.....“He walks into a room and you want to follow him somewhere, anywhere,” says George Clooney. “I’ll do whatever he says to do,” says actress Halle Berry. “I’ll collect paper cups off the ground to make his pathway clear.”

I’m nervous because nobody’s quite sure what Obama stands for, even his supporters. (“I can’t wait to see,” said actress/activist Susan Sarandon, declaring full support nonetheless).

She even has remorse about Michelle Obama, about whom she recently wrote "a puff-piece." She ends with:

I’m nervous because John McCain says Obama’s is “an eloquent but empty call for change” and in the wee, wee hours, a nagging voice whispers, suppose McCain’s right, too? Then what?

Is she serious? Who knows, but I suspect we'll be hearing it from others over the next two weeks.

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WaPo Polls: TX Tied, Clinton Ahead In OH

By Big Tent Democrat

WaPo Polls Ohio and Texas:

TEXAS

Clinton 48
Obama 47

OHIO

Clinton 50
Obama 43

The details on the flip.

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Times' Keller Defends McCain "Story"

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Greg Sargent, NYTimes Executive Editor defends the McCain story:

On the substance, we think the story speaks for itself. In all the uproar, no one has challenged what we actually reported. On the timing, our policy is, we publish stories when they are ready.

'Ready' means the facts have been nailed down to our satisfaction, the subjects have all been given a full and fair chance to respond, and the reporting has been written up with all the proper context and caveats. This story was no exception. It was a long time in the works. It reached my desk late Tuesday afternoon. After a final edit and a routine check by our lawyers, we published it.

I agree with Greg's take. This statement addresses NONE of the concerns raised. Wholly inadequate.

Update: (TL) The New Republic, which reportedly was the impetus for the Times running the McCain story yesterday, has now published its article about the history of the Times' article and investigation.

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Bush Admits U.S. Used British Territory During Transport of Ghost Prisoners

The Bush Administration has admitted for the first time using a British territory in its transporting of Ghost Air prisoners as part of its secret rendition program.

The Bush administration is bracing for a diplomatic backlash after conceding it used British territory to transport suspected terrorists on secret rendition flights despite repeated earlier assurances the U.S. had not.

U.S. officials have sought to quell the fallout by apologizing to Britain for what they said was an "administrative error." The admission, however, may reopen a bitter debate between the United States and its allies over how the fight against terrorism should be conducted and compromise future cooperation.

The territory at issue: Diego Garcia.[More...]

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Bush Judicial Nominee: Private Prison Executive With Little Court Experience

Via Mother Jones:

Tennessee's next trial court judge might be a prison company executive who has less courtroom experience than most inmates.

His name is Gustavus Adolphus Puryear IV:

Puryear has spent the bulk of his legal career at the Tennessee-based Corrections Corporation of America, the nation's largest private prison company. As its general counsel since 2001, Puryear has made millions of dollars working for a company that profits from the country's incarceration boom, particularly through his recent sale of more than $3 million worth of the company's stock. (His financial disclosure form shows a net worth of more than $13 million.

...According to his written questionnaire for the committee, of the two cases he has tried in the entirety of his legal career, he was lead counsel on one of them. The last time he litigated a case in federal court was more than a decade ago.

Puryear oversees the defense of Correction Corps of America to inmate lawsuits. [More...]

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Clinton's Finances

By Big Tent Democrat

A minor matter, but Hilzoy is concerned about Clinton's finances and states:

Question: does anyone think that she will take in as much in February as she did in January? I don't.

As I understand it, Clinton raised 13.5 millon (though Politico says $20MM, including Clinton's loan) in January. In February, just online, Clinton had raised 15 million in 15 days. So the answer to Hilzoy's question is actually, yes, Clinton will raise MUCH MORE in February than January.

(120 comments) Permalink :: Comments

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