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As The Polls Close: Midterm Elections Live Blog

Update: Dems To Take Control of the House according to projections. Right now they have 18 wins. Republicans will keep control of the Senate. In Texas, Beto O'Rourke lost to Ted Cruz(even Beyonce's last minute endorsement didn't bring it home for him.) Ted Cruz is one of at least two Republican Senate wins Trump cannot take credit for (the other is Mitt Romney). On the flip side, I wonder if anyone is keeping track of candidates Trump campaigned for who lost? (Here's one: Bob Menendez thanks Trump for endorsing his losing opponent.

Update: Coloradans win!

Original Post

Results and predictions are beginning to stream in. Here is the NY Times Live Results page.


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Criminal Justice Measures To Be Decided in Today's Elections

Here is an excellent guide to criminal justice reform measures at stake around the country in today's elections, from legalizing marijuana to reducing sentences, allowing expungement of prior convictions and bail reform.

. Four states might legalize the drug by referendum: Michigan and North Dakota for recreational use, and Missouri and Utah for medicinal use.

Victories by governors who back marijuana legalization—including JB Pritzker (Illinois), Tim Walz (Minnesota), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico) who are all favored to win, as well as candidates locked in tighter contests such as Andrew Gillum (Florida), Ben Jealous (Maryland), and Ned Lamont (Connecticut)—could alter the legislative landscape on this issue.... In Michigan, Whitmer’s win could facilitate the referendum’s expansion into legislation to expunge past convictions.

Other measures detailed include ICE and local participation in its 287(g) program. [More...]

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Harvard Poll: Young Voters Rejecting Trump and Repubs

A new Harvard poll finds that young voters are exercising their right to vote in record numbers and will be rejecting Trump and Republicans at the midterms:

Nearly twice as many respondents identified with the Democratic Party over the GOP — 41 percent to 21 percent, while 35 percent said they were unaffiliated or Independents.

That gap widened significantly when asked about Trump's job as president: 68 percent of overall respondents said they disapprove of Trump's performance after nearly two years in office, compared with just 26 percent who do approve. It grew wider still among likely voters, with 72 percent of that group disapproving of Trump's job.

While more of them lean progressive, the poll found they don't go as far as to support the Bernie Sanders-inspired "Democratic Socialist" views.[More...]

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Tuesday Primaries and Open Thread

Sorry for the late response to the request for a new open thread and one to discuss the primaries.

Season 6 of Senor de los Cielos starts tonight in 15 minutes. Enemigo Intimo ended last night, it was a really good story with a terrific cast. It's hard to say goodbye to Monica Robles but Roxanna Rodilles is another strong female lead, just in a different way. There will be a season 2.

Again, this is an open thread, all topics welcome.

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Suburban vs. Rural and Faith-Based Republicans

The New York Times reports today on efforts of suburban republicans in places like Texas who are so disgusted by Donald Trump they are organizing for Dems in the 2018 election.

“Have you ever heard of a stupider and trashier man than the president of the United States?” asked Ms. Sharp, an interior designer who lives not far from the elegant condominium where about 75 women gathered this month to help the House candidate Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. “Calling a U.S. senator ‘Pocahontas’ in front of God and everyone!”


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Alabama Senate Results: Live Blog

Update: 10:30 pm: The New York Times, CNN and NBC call the race for Doug Jones! (I beat them by 25 minutes.) Congratulations to Doug Jones. America thanks you. Donald Trump loses again. Who says you can't go home?

Update 10:05 pm: The networks are being cautious, but looking at the map and the precincts not yet reporting, I don't see how Moore can pull it off. I'm ready to call the race for Doug Jones!


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Alabama Senate Exit Polls

5:20 p.m. ET: First early exit polls released in the Alabama Senate Race:

The first exit polls are released, revealing Alabama voters divided on the validity of the allegations against Moore. More than four in 10 believe they are false. Most Jones voters believe the accusations, while most of Moore's voters do not.

For about 40 percent of voters, the allegations were the most important factor in their vote, mostly for Jones voters. Moore voters were more motivated by their support for Donald Trump. Early exit polling shows Jones supporters more staunchly behind their candidate than those behind Moore.

Furthermore, most voters had already made up their minds by November – before the allegations against Moore surfaced.

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Rand Paul Announces Presidential Bid

Sen. Rand Paul has announced he is running for President.

A quote from his speech:

“I say the phone records of law-abiding citizens are none of their damn business,” Paul said of government officials.

His banner read:

“Defeat the Washington machine. Unleash the American dream.”

Any takers here?

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Ted Cruz Announces Presidential Bid

Ted Cruz will seek the Republican nomination for President. Here's a place to discuss him and the 2016 Presidential race.

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The art of the clown:

Donald Trump will launch a presidential exploratory committee Wednesday, the eve of the business mogul’s return to New Hampshire. [. . .] According to Lewandowski, “Apprentice” producer Mark Burnett personally called Trump to offer another season of the “Apprentice” but Trump turned him down. “Nobody in the history of television has turned down a renewal,” Lewandowski said in a phone interview with the Union Leader. “But Mr. Trump can do that.” [My emphasis]
It's HUUUUUGE!!! It's history. The Art of the Clown.

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eGhazi Effect: Clinton Leads Bush, Walker by 55-40

This CNN poll has to be confounding for the Media:

The two candidates who currently top the GOP field, Bush and Walker, match up equally against Clinton, with each carrying 40% to her 55%. Huckabee gets 41% to Clinton's 55% and Carson has 40% to Clinton's 56%.

[Clinton's] prospects in 2016 appear largely unchanged compared to polls conducted before news broke about her use of a personal email address and home-based server while serving as secretary of state.

In the primaries, Bush leads the GOP pack with 16% to Walker's 13%. Not that that matters much as national polls don't tell you anything about Iowa and New Hampshire, where the stage is set. On the Dem side, Clinton holds a 50 point lead over Biden and Warren.

10 months to Iowa.

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eGhazi: Dan Metcalfe appears to be ill informed

So Dan Metcalfe is back at it again. The former FOIA person for the Justice Department, with an assist from Politico, continues to spout uniformed nonsense on eGhazi. Some examples:

We now have former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton being revealed as someone who took the unprecedented step of arranging to use her personal email account for all of her official email communications.

But didn't Colin Powell do the same thing? I'm sure I read it somewhere. Why yes, here it is in, um, Politico:

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The Plot Thins: State Dept regs require employees to decide what e-mails are preserved

Media Matters points us to State Dept Reg. 5 FAM 443.2:

E-mail message creators and recipients must decide whether a particular message is appropriate for preservation In making these decisions, all personnel should exercise the same judgment they use when determining whether to retain and file paper records.

We already know there was no prohibition until 2014 regarding the use of private e-mail accounts. We now know that, as a formal matter, even e-mails sent or received on State Department email account were not automatically preserved. Instead only those e-mails designated for preservation, by the determination of the individual holding the e-mail, would be preserved.

Hillary Clinton should have made these determinations in a timely manner. When she did not, after the effective date (in 2010) of the 2009 NARA regulation, she failed to comply in my opinion. (I do not accept her argument that she could rely on the determination of the recipient or sender from a .gov account.)

But in terms of laws and regulations, this has become "The Incredible Shrinking Scandal."

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eGhazi: Why Democrats and Hillary Clinton Need A Contested Primary

As Laura Clawson deftly describes, the Media is turrible on its best days, but when the Clintons are involved, they reach seemingly impossible nadirs, and stay down there.

There's a lot to question about Hillary Clinton's policy positions, especially, in my view, on foreign policy. But those questions will never get asked by the Media on its own.

The Media doesn't actually care about policy. Partly because it's hard to report on policy. Partly because they don't really care about policy. The only way they do is if a political opponent raises the issue.

More on the flip.

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2016: Hillary Leads Potential GOP Opponents by Double Digits

The latest (PDF) in a string of polls showing Hillary Clinton would defeat all GOP challengers in 2016:

The national survey finds 53 to 56 percent support for Clinton among registered voters against each of these potential Republican candidates, while they get 39 to 41 percent.

One of the most interesting findings is Clinton's performance among white voters:

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