Friday :: February 05, 2016

Friday Open Thread


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Thursday :: February 04, 2016

Belated Post Debate Thread

Sorry. Should have put up a thread.

Update (TL): Thanks, BTD. I didn't even realize there was a debate tonight until just now. That's how studiously I've been avoiding news about New Hampshire. Here's an AP recap of the first half.

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Wednesday :: February 03, 2016

Wednesday Open Thread

No, I'm not watching the TV show about O.J.

Or following the campaigns in New Hampshire -- everyone should just declare themselves a moral victor and move on to states with more significance to the race as a whole.

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

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Tuesday :: February 02, 2016

Sanders Complains About Party Staffing, Wants Results "Recreated"

Too much. CNN reports Bernie Sanders' campaign is claiming 90 precincts were inadequately staffed by the Democratic Party and wants the vote recreated in those precincts. Wolf Blitzer seems truly perplexed and asks, "What exactly does that mean"?

Here's the result tally and map from the Iowa Democratic Party's caucus website at midnight Iowa time.


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Monday :: February 01, 2016

Hillary's Iowa Speech: The Real Winner Stands Up

Hillary Clinton looks great in red. She's hoarse. Bill and Chelsea are with her. Her makeup's perfect (unlike Trump's racoon eyes.) Some of her remarks (not verbatim):

It is rare to have the opportunity to have a real contest and think about what the Democratic party stands for. I am a progressive who gets things done.

Cheers and standing ovation. [More...]

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Ted Cruz Thanks You Know Who

You don't need to listen to Ted Cruz's speech. You know what he said. Like Rubio, it's all the work of You Know Who.

Good luck with that in November. Trump will eat them both alive. I would bet that You Know Who will never run the United States of America in my lifetime.

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Trump's Iowa Speech: Iowa We Love You

"I think I might come here and buy a farm."

The gracious Donald Trump showed up tonight. He loves Iowans. He congratulates the others. He loves New Hampshire and South Carolina.

His wife looks gorgeous. His sons are on hand, they've been in Iowa giving speeches. I think Ivanka was on the left with her husband but I was typing and didn't really see. (Corrected: His daughter with Marla Trump is not Vanessa but Tiffany. So I have no idea who the blond was with his sons.)

Trump says he will get the Republican nomination and beat Hillary or Bernie or "whoever the hell they throw up."

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Iowa Caucus Coverage and Results

Update: I'm done for the night. Congratulations, Hillary. These numbers are from the Iowa Democratic Party's caucus site. 1632 of 1683 precincts reporting. (Results include Tele-Caucus and the Satellite Caucus.)

Here's the County map showing winners at midnight, Iowa time. Looks to me like Hillary won a lot more counties.

At 538: David Wasserman writes at 10:52 PM:

Reality check: A tie in Iowa is actually a win for Clinton. According to our targets at the Cook Political Report, Bernie Sanders would have needed to win twice as many delegates as Clinton in Iowa to be "on track" for the nomination. He's nowhere near that tonight.

Update: Hillary is at 49.9%.

Update: Bernie changes his mind again. Now Bernie's flying off to New Hampshire after all tonight. He's not going to demand an actual vote total, but claim a "moral victory." Translation: He didn't win. Spin: It's a tie. Reality: A tie is if they each get 49.75%. If either gets more, he or she wins Iowa. (With O'Malley getting .5%, that leaves 99.5%.) [More...]

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Iowa Still Up for Grabs?

Hillary Clinton has a three point lead in the final Selzer poll -- also called the Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll -- before today's Iowa caucuses. Here are the poll questions and the methodology.

Nate Silver at 538 says Hillary may just win Iowa. He opines Bernie Sanders is close, but has failed to grab the momentum. (Feel free to disagree with him, but skip the name-calling and personal attacks or your comment will be deleted. They aren't welcome here as to anyone.)

538 also favorably dissects the historical accuracy of Selzer's Iowa poll (there's a reason it's called the best of the Iowa polls, but still, it's not perfect.) [More...]

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Saturday :: January 30, 2016

Saturday Night Open Thread

What I'm watching: The X Games in Aspen (here's today's updated schedule) and next the Screen Actor's Guild Awards (Red carpet airing now on E.)

I've gone days without blogging. The biggest reason is both the mouse and the track pad on my laptop are on the fritz. They alternate between not doing anything and all of a sudden moving to a different page. The hard drive is just about full, making it very slow. (And there's nothing I feel like moving to an external drive.) [More....]

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UPDATE - Clinton 45- Sanders 42- O'Malley 3.

Trump 28, Cruz 23, Rubio 15, Carson 10.

6:45 pm Eastern time tonight, Ann Selzer drops her final Iowa poll. For those who don't know Selzer is the gold standard for Iowa - THE poll. So we'll know a bit better what to expect at the Iowa caucus then.

But here's what we've always known - the Iowa caucus on the Dem side is a travesty. There are many reasons why it should not go first - mostly because it is basically an all white state (like NH that follows it), thoroughly unrepresentative of the demographics of the Democratic Party.

But the actual Dem caucus process itself is ridiculously undemocratic. There is no secret ballot. There is no connecting statewide votes with actual delegates chosen. There is a 15% viability requirement PER PRECINCT! It is truly awful in every sense.

Ironically, it's possible Sanders will get more voters out Monday night and "lose" the caucuses. We'll never actually know as vote totals are not reported just delegate counts.

It's long past time to end the travesty known as the Iowa Caucus going first in Presidential primaries.

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eGhazi: Same BS IC story: different day

Josh Gerstein and Rachel Bade:

The furor over Hillary Clinton's use of a private email account grew more serious for the Democratic presidential front-runner Friday as the State Department designated 22 of the messages from her account "top secret." [. . .]

"These documents were not marked classified at the time they were sent [and they weren't sent by Clinton imo - BTD my emhphasis] ," Kirby said in a statement.

Sound familiar? It should because it is the same story I've been writing about since this nonsense started. See in particular State v. IC classification battles:

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Friday :: January 29, 2016

Friday Open Thread

Busy day. I'll write a little bit on Iowa and EGhazi (same story, different day) tomorrow.

Open Thread.

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Thursday :: January 28, 2016

Thursday Open Thread


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Wednesday :: January 27, 2016

Wednesday Open Thread


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