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WaPo Polls: TX Tied, Clinton Ahead In OH

By Big Tent Democrat

WaPo Polls Ohio and Texas:

TEXAS

Clinton 48
Obama 47

OHIO

Clinton 50
Obama 43

The details on the flip.

The Post-ABC News polls show Clinton with solid support from white women and voters with less education and lower incomes in both Ohio and Texas. She holds a big lead among Hispanics in Texas. Obama has large advantages among independents, African Americans and better-educated voters in both states.

Clinton advisers have expressed optimism about her prospects in the two contests, but the new polls suggest the momentum Obama achieved in his string of victories has turned both into true battlegrounds. Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton, said earlier this week that she must win Texas and Ohio to keep her candidacy viable.

It appears that the demographics are holding form, but Clinton's leads may have narrowed. We do not know as WaPo does not provide its expected turnouts.

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  • Display: Sort:
    You are singlehandedly taking care (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:41:08 PM EST
    of that deficit.

    TX IS KARL ROVE'S PLAYGROUND (none / 0) (#64)
    by john5750 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:56:39 PM EST
    Republican Party always wanted Obama to be the nominee; flushed his coffers with cash; saw him as easier Democrat to defeat.

    Republican Party activists have been organized by the GOP to throw their weight behind Barack Obama, the Democratic rival of frontrunner Hillary Clinton.

    Early in Obama's campaign, top Republican fundraisers flushed his coffers with cash, something the deep pockets hadn't done for any candidate in their own party.

    http://www.thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html

    Parent

    oooo (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by andgarden on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:48:09 PM EST
    I know what you mean by that too. . .

    Obama didn't see any difference (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Shawn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:57:47 PM EST
    when he was running against John Edwards.

    It is utter nonsense and I have no patience for bringing it here.

    It will all be deleted.

    I can not stomach the spread of the dishonesty about this.

    I can't believe (none / 0) (#42)
    by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:27:04 PM EST
    That you deleted two entire conversational threads!

    Why are you doing this?  It doesn't reflect well upon your site that you would do such a thing.

    Parent

    I just explained why (none / 0) (#43)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:29:38 PM EST
    These are not conversations. These are opportunities to spread dishonest smears.

    You can all discuss how evil Hillary is on this at you know where.

    It does not speak well of you and others that you want to spread the lies that have been written about this.

    I will not countenance it. Perhaps Jeralyn will let you in her thread. I won't in mine.

    Parent

    I don't (none / 0) (#46)
    by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:33:06 PM EST
    think that Hillary is evil.  Not at all.  I don't understand why you would say that.

    When you asked, I told you the truth: that if she would ask the 527's to stop, the same way Obama did, I wouldn't blame her for what they did.  

    I might add that you participated in these conversations.  It wasn't just a bunch of trolls who came in and yakked it up with each other.  Why would you delete your own comments?  They weren't bad comments.

    Parent

    Issue is closed (none / 0) (#47)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:34:22 PM EST
    See if Jeralyn lets you write about it. I will not in my thread.

    Parent
    Yaknow what? (none / 0) (#51)
    by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:39:42 PM EST
    This is the only Dem site I've ever been to where the authors attempt to have such dictatorial control over the content of the comments.  Why is this the policy?  If people's opinions are without merit, it will be proven in the fullness of time.


    Parent
    Not open for discussion (none / 0) (#53)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:46:48 PM EST
    If you do not like it, you can go elsewhere.

    Parent
    Big Tent is Right (none / 0) (#57)
    by sar75 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:51:06 PM EST
    It's his blog and he has the right to delete anything he doesn't like.  I just posted some general election head-to-head numbers because I thought this was about polls, but I was clearly wrong and should have known better. It's about one poll in particular, not a jumping off point for a discussion of other polls.

    Enjoy the blog, but remember, it's not yours.  I'm slowly learning my place and enjoying myself more because of it.

    Parent

    It is is not about polls (none / 0) (#59)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:53:42 PM EST
    It is about WaPo's TEXAS and OHIO polls.

    If you have OTHER TEXAS and OHIO polls to discuss, you are more than welcome.

    It is pretty obvious that your comment was off topic.

    Parent

    I was agreeing that it was off topic... (none / 0) (#61)
    by sar75 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:54:58 PM EST
    ...and was glad that it was deleted.  Sheesh.

    Parent
    My apologies then (none / 0) (#63)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:56:37 PM EST
    Actually... (none / 0) (#60)
    by sar75 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:53:54 PM EST
    ...there are very few posts right now about the WP poll.  

    Parent
    Indeed (none / 0) (#62)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:55:57 PM EST
    Most are about a discussion of deletions of comments.

    You have anything on topic to add?

    Parent

    It might be nice... (none / 0) (#65)
    by sar75 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:58:01 PM EST
    ...if we could use some threads as a jumping off point to talk about related things - like other polls? Maybe not, just a thought - please don't yell at me for suggesting it.

    Parent
    Open Threads (none / 0) (#67)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:04:20 PM EST
    Frankly, we keep tight reins on it to avoid fights.

    Parent
    actually, I think other polls (none / 0) (#68)
    by Jeralyn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:11:22 PM EST
    are an appropriate topic if they are close in time and of the same subject.

    Parent
    Our comment policy is (none / 0) (#55)
    by Jeralyn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:49:03 PM EST
    here.

    Commenting is a privilege, not a right. It's my site and I make the rules. You can start your own blog if you disagree.

    All points of view are welcome but commenters need to stay on topic unless it's an open thread. We decide what to write about. It's not a free-for-all.

    Parent

    I didn't see them (none / 0) (#56)
    by Jeralyn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:51:05 PM EST
    I'm assuming they had nothing to do with the topic  of your post.

    Parent
    They had nothing to do with my post (none / 0) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:52:22 PM EST
    I deleted all my comments as well.

    I see red when discussing the phony campaign finance issues and dishonesty is the order of the day in those discussions.

    Parent

    Her leads with her constituencies... (none / 0) (#1)
    by jor on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:34:48 PM EST
    .. have been continually getting smaller and smaller with every election throughout february. If things go at the same rate they have been, she is already a goner come March 4th.

    Reading between the lines (none / 0) (#5)
    by Shawn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:44:55 PM EST
    The Post-ABC News polls show Clinton with solid support from white women and voters with less education and lower incomes in both Ohio and Texas. She holds a big lead among Hispanics in Texas. Obama has large advantages among independents, African Americans and better-educated voters in both states.

    If all of this is the case, their turnout model must really favor Obama.

    Not their turnout model; Texas turnout model (none / 0) (#75)
    by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:49:00 PM EST
    definitely favors Obama.  Earlier posts in earlier threads explained that delegates are awarded based on turnout last time, and Latino turnout was low -- plus there is the incredibly bad redistricting of Texas by the Republican legislature.  See if you can google up a map; I saw it a few years ago and was just amazed at what they got away with there.

    Parent
    Key finding: (none / 0) (#16)
    by PlayInPeoria on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:58:01 PM EST
     
    "A quarter in Texas, and a third in Ohio, say they could change their minds or are undecided."

    It is weird that when asked who is the strongest leader ......

    Ohio
    Hillary 53
    Obama  36

    Texas
    Hillary 51
    Obama  40

    Survey

    They don't want a leader, they just want (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by Teresa on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:01:15 PM EST
    to feel good? Be part of the crowd? Maybe we should just text in our votes after American Idol goes off.

    Parent
    The Primaries (none / 0) (#38)
    by MKS on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:21:40 PM EST
    need to end soon...Hillary has had every chance to win this...but her campaign has blown it....

    If this goes to June, patronizing comments like Obama supporters just want to feel good will seem quaint.....

    Parent

    Voters have not had every chance (none / 0) (#72)
    by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:44:36 PM EST
    yet, so please learn deferred gratification.

    Parent
    Some want "electability" most (none / 0) (#71)
    by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:43:47 PM EST
    such as BTD.  He has explained it.

    Parent
    it shows an appalling lack of understanding (none / 0) (#34)
    by Kathy on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:17:41 PM EST
    We are at war.  Soldiers are dying.  Torture is being done in our name.  American citizens are being spied on.  Our constitutional rights are eroding.  We need a strong leader to get us out of this, someone who will not be pushed around--someone who understands what is truly at stake here.

    I don't need someone in the White House who makes me feel good about myself.  I need someone who makes me feel good about America.

    Parent

    That's Obama (none / 0) (#40)
    by MKS on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:23:16 PM EST
    Obama makes people feel good about America...and he has greater ability to get out of Iraq than Hillary....Hillary's plan has "mission creep" written all over it...

    Parent
    and (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Turkana on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:32:39 PM EST
    obama keeps the $1.3 billion a year (permanent base) embassy. anyone who thinks he's better on iraq than hillary is deluded. oh yeah- he gave a pretty speech. in 2002.

    Parent
    He does not make me feel good (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:46:02 PM EST
    so therefore, with Kathy and me vs. you, Obama loses.  Or perhaps we could move beyond the anecdotal and discuss the polls?

    Parent
    According to the survey (none / 0) (#69)
    by PlayInPeoria on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:15:54 PM EST
    Who do you trust to handle the War in Iraq

    Ohio
    Clinton 45
    Obama  39

    Texas
    Clinton 43
    Obama  44

    National
    Clinton 48
    Obama  40

    Have you read thesurvey we are talking about? The link is above.


    Parent

    Strong leader numbers (none / 0) (#41)
    by MKS on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:26:26 PM EST
    mean that all Obama has to do in the debate tonight is look Hillary's equal--not get blown off the stage....A draw means he improves his stature....

    Parent
    Spin (none / 0) (#74)
    by PlayInPeoria on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:46:24 PM EST
    like a top!!

    Parent
    Dee Dee Meyers refers to HRC's (none / 0) (#18)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:58:41 PM EST
    presidential bid in the past tense.  See Huffington Post, Sam Stein.

    I'm interested to see (none / 0) (#22)
    by andgarden on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:00:58 PM EST
    hat the polling looks like tomorrow. Someone is likely to get a bounce.

    Well, Obama's been photographed (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:03:44 PM EST
    wearing a Stetson, so I'm thinking he'll probably win TX.

    Parent
    The knives are starting to come out now (none / 0) (#29)
    by blogtopus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:08:17 PM EST
    Have you folks been seeing some of the sniping the pundits are making at Obama now? Of course you have, TL just posted a sample below.

    This will begin to weed the true believers from the leaners, I think. Probably won't be enough though.

    Or the leaners will ffeel (none / 0) (#44)
    by oculus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:29:58 PM EST
    sympathy for Obama.

    Parent
    Something to look for (none / 0) (#49)
    by jen on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:37:07 PM EST
    IF Obama wins the nomination, in theory, he should win the GE in an unprecedented landslide. If all the Republics and Indys who came out to support him stick with him in the GE, we're going to see an election with historical results.

    BTW, I'm absolutely convinced we won't see this, and expect him to go down in flames against McCain. But that's just me...  I really, really hope I'm wrong.

    From what I see in Wisconsin returns (none / 0) (#70)
    by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:42:02 PM EST
    the conclusion is not as cataclysymic, and the closest state in 2004 may be more Dem this time -- but it would be more Dem either way, because of Bush.  The state would no way be so much for Obama; that clearly was the massive crossover vote.  (See jsonline.com today for more analysis; see bylines Borowski and, for Waukesha County, Walker.)

    Parent
    This thread is about the WaPO poll (none / 0) (#50)
    by Jeralyn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:38:21 PM EST
    Big Tent is right. Stay on topic.

    Internals (none / 0) (#52)
    by Shawn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:40:57 PM EST
    From TalkLeft's sidebar:

    Six in 10 Hispanic voters and nearly as many white women in Texas say they back Clinton, similar to her national edge so far with those groups, who have been crucial to her. Three-quarters of blacks support Obama, slightly lower than usual, and he leads by 10 percentage points among white men. He is seen as more electable, she as the stronger leader. Unlike most states, health care trumps the economy as Texas Democratic voters' top concern, and Clinton has a 17-point edge over him for handling the issue. A quarter say they still may switch their support.

    Hard to see the "erosion" in her base from these numbers. Again, 48/47 must indicate an Obama-friendly turnout model.

    trend lines for Texas polls (none / 0) (#66)
    by A DC Wonk on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:03:51 PM EST
    which incorporate todays polls, are here at Pollster.