While tomorrow may be up in the air, the May 13 West Virginia primary is not in doubt. Ras sez Clinton by 29, 56-27.

BTW, here is Geoff Garin's answer to my Magic Number question. Here is the entire call.

Let's make this an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

PPP's Final NC poll has Obama up 10, 53-43. The key data: Clinton wins whites 62-35 (61% of the vote). Obama win African Americans 84-11 (35% of the vote).

PPP has an interesting discussion about their turnout model:

Obviously how you choose to nail down that figure can have a pretty significant effect on your Presidential numbers when the electorate is so polarized along racial lines. We settled on 35%. We asked folks who were polled if they had voted early. Taking all of the respondents in our poll, if 40% of those who voted early were black then 35% of the population as a whole was.

In other words, they threw a dart. Keep this in mind when you hear about "scientific polling." That said, the poll feels right to me.

The Suffolk University Poll for Indiana taken over the weekend has Hillary 49, Obama 43. Six percent are still undecided.

Suffolk says:

"Although the margin appears to be single digits at this point, the outcome will hinge on high turnouts in Marion and Lake counties, which are crucial for Obama."

....A considerably high 38 percent indicated they would vote for McCain, while 6 percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader, and an additional 11 percent were undecided.

"This 38 percent is one of several statistical signs that Republicans are meddling in the Democratic fray, knowing full well they will vote Republican come November," said Paleologos.

The margin of error is 4%.

Obama told reporters this morning in Indiana that "Every poll shows it is a dead heat."

Chris Bowers says "the Medium is the Movement:"

Is there a progressive movement? . . . If the Obama campaign can change the principles of the movement so quickly, perhaps there isn't a movement at all. . . . [T]he rise of the Creative Class doesn't really work, even most members of the Creative Class tend to be progressive. This leaves us with the lower cost of information, and resulting explosion in cultural production, brought on by the Internet. Perhaps the de-centralization of mass media consumption, the public sphere interaction, and cultural production brought on by the Internet is the progressive movement. It is the clearest example of how daily life has changed in a progressive way over the last decade. The medium is the movement.

More...

The final SUSA Indiana poll has Hillary Clinton winning by 12, 54-42.

Key findings: Clinton wins whites 58-39 (87% of the vote, Obama wins African Americans 77-21 (10% of the vote).

I do not believe the African American finding. Doing my SUSA adjustments (A-As 90-10 for Obama, undecided whites 2-1 for Clinton), I get the following result: Clinton 54-46.

By Big Tent Democrat

Garin's answer to my question here.

During the Clinton Press Call, I asked about the magic number:

I asked about the Magic Number, if the Clinton camp accepts 2025 [the number w/out FL and MI] as the Magic Number or do they insist that it be 2209 [the number with FL and MI included]. I asked specifically if Obama garnered 2209 delegates, would they accept that he had won the nomination. At first Garin seemed to accept this argument but then other speakers [Phil Singer I believe] for Clinton seemed to NOT accept it, calling the issue "academic."

I was surprised by this reaction from the Clinton campaign. The reasoning was there was a process in place to determine WHETHER Florida and Michigan would be seated and therefore, I surmise, the Magic Number was not knowable at this time. This line of argument, it seems to me, undermines the Clinton high ground on Michigan and Florida. Will they claim victory without seating Florida and Michigan? How do they achieve such a victory? Would it be acceptable to the Clinton campaign not to resolve Florida and Michigan prior to determining the nominee? I must say that the answers on this issue were not coherent imo. Nor is it politically smart. Right now, MSNBC is discussing the Magic Number as 2025, stating that Obama will need only 38% of the remaining delegates if the delegates are split tomorrow. And the Clinton Camp seems unwilling to push back on this.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

This morning's Clinton conference call is all about setting expectations.

Clinton says a month ago, the RCP average for Indiana Obama led by 7 points. "That is his baseline" argues Geoff Garin. Clinton will do better than that. In North Carolina, In North Carolina, RCP average Obama led by close to 20 points. Clinton will do better than that.

Wolfson discusses the Obama memo, which predicts victories for Obama of 7 points in Indiana and 8 points in North Carolina. Wolfson discusses Joe Andrews' flat prediction that Obama will win Indiana and North Carolina.

Wolfson seems pretty confident about Indiana. More . . .

Here is the problem with the Left Blogs:

I get the sense that Clinton has decided to game entirely on going after conservative Democratic voters, using the gimmick of the gas tax holiday, pugilistic foreign policy ideas, and race-baiting.

And finally, the ease with which the destructive and inflammatory charge of "race baiting" is levelled, without citing even one example of this so called race baiting, is an indication that the Left blogs are simply smearmongers now. Disgraceful. Let me quote Charlie Rangel, ironically cited in the same post for other purposes:

More...

USA Today reports on its new poll conducted with Gallup:

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp.

The numbers:

In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.

Then there's this:

Eight of 10 Americans have been following [the Rev. Wright controversy] most of them closely...Just 1% of likely voters say Obama's links to Wright make them more likely to support him.

If I were an Indiana voter listening to Obama, I don't think I'd appreciate him telling me that since I've lost my job, I've lost my dignity. The crowd didn't react to the statement. Certainly no cheering.

See what you think.

A tv reporter tonight said Hillary Clinton is heading back to North Carolina tonight. Bill Clinton will make 11 stops there tomorrow and Hillary will make 2. (Here's how hard Bill's been working --3,500 came out to see him in Morganton today.)

The Obamas will also be in North Carolina, campaigning in Durham and Fayetteville.

What does it mean that both candidates are spending the day before the NC and IN primaries in NC?

There are 72 pledged delegates at stake in Indiana and 115 in North Carolina. Indiana hasn't voted for a Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. North Carolina voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 (by 13% and 12%). Even native son John Edwards on the ticket didn't matter. Since 1964, the Democratic Presidential ticket has carried N.C. only for Carter-Mondale in 1976..

Here are the latest voter stats, as of May 3, for North Carolina. As for Indiana, the New York Times explains it's very complicated. Maybe that's why the polls are so divergent.

Update: Comments now closed, new thread is here.

Public Policy Polling is suggesting that Obama will outperform the recent NC polling:

Barack Obama won three of the primaries in our surrounding states here in North Carolina- South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. And in all three of those states the polling vastly underestimated him . . . In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.

This is true. However, in South Carolina (1/25), Clinton and Edwards split the white vote (43% of the vote.) In Georgia (2/5), Clinton won the white vote (43% of the vote) by 53-43 (Edwards was still in the ballot and took 4%). Virginia (2/12) was, with Wisconsin (2/14), the last contested state where Obama won the white vote. Oh by the way, SUSA's polling was quite good for Virginia.