Below I wrote that Barack Obama can win the nomination today by sweeping North Carolina and Indiana. But the reality is Obama can not lose in North Carolina. If he does, then he is in serious serious trouble. Why? Because in order to lose North Carolina, Obama will have to garner less than 30% of the white vote. Remember, North Carolina's electorate today will be comprised of at least 32% and likely more African Americans. They will vote for Obama by at least 9-1. Thus, in order to win North Carolina, Obama only needs to capture about 30% of the remaining vote, almost all of it white. Let me repeat - Hillary Clinton can win 70% of the white vote in North Carolina and lose. The fact is Obama can not lose North Carolina. Period.

More . . .

As we're following the news, I wonder how our expectations will change throughout the day as we hear from anchors, surrogates and pundits. Let's hear your early predictions for both states, with point spreads, and then we'll do another this mid-afternoon and this evening.

One winner from each prediction thread will get a present from TalkLeft (I'll have to figure out a fair way to choose if there's a tie.)

I'm also putting a poll below.

Update (9:50 am MT): George Stephanopoulous on the campaigns' predictions:

Obama's supporters suggested to Stephanopoulos that Clinton would win in Indiana by as much as eight points, and Clinton's camp hinted that Obama would win by as much as 10 points in North Carolina. If either of those margins are trimmed, the loser will likely claim some sort of upset victory.

***

Terry McCauliffe was on Fox News this morning with Bill Hemmer. Hemmer said word is from Drudge that Clinton advisors say Obama will take N.C. by 15 points. He asked Terry if he's hearing those numbers and if he thinks Hillary can win that state. McCauliffe said he's never spoken to Drudge in his life and he hasn't heard those numbers.

If Barack Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina today, he will effectively end the contest for the Democratic nomination. John Zogby is making his play for relevance by predicting that Obama will indeed do that. The pundit Zogby again stands out as predicting Obama will win Indiana by 2 and North Carolina by 14. No other pollster has Obama winning Indiana. Most other pollsters predict a much closer race in NC.

Key NC data from Zogby - "Obama wins 79% support among African Americans, compared with 11% for Clinton, the junior senator from New York. But while Clinton wins among whites, 52% to 37%[.] . . .The African American vote in the North Carolina primary is expected to be about 32%."

Key Indiana data from Zogby - "Clinton leads among white voters, 48% to 40%, with 12% left unsure or supporting someone else. Among African Americans in the Hoosier state, Obama leads by an 82% to 13% edge over Clinton, going a long way to boost Obama statewide. African American voters in the Democratic primary comprise about 11% of the electorate."

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The New York Times reports on Hillary Clinton's transformation into America's working class hero.

Here's Green Day:

As I wrote here the last time I picked this song for late night (with the John Lennon version), we've only got one working class hero in this race. [more...]

Update: Here's the ad.

Ouch.

Paul Krugman says an Obama ad attacking Hillary on gas tax relief misrepresents what he said.

I did not say that the Clinton proposal would increase oil industry profits. If the ad implies that I did, it should be retracted.

....I was very clear when I wrote about the Clinton proposal that while I didn’t think it was good policy, it was not the same as McCain’s, and relatively harmless. If the Obama people are suggesting otherwise, they’re being deliberately dishonest.

Krugman's original column is here. It attacks only McCain's plan which is not the same as Hillary's.

More...

A new AP-Ipsos national poll has just been released. Hillary has some serious momentum happening.

Clinton (47%) Overtakes Obama (40%) Nationally On Eve of Indiana And North Carolina Primaries ; Poll Shows Clinton Campaign Picking Up Steam With Democrats Nationally

47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton, while 40% would vote for Barack Obama.

These results are in contrast to a poll conducted by Ipsos from April 23rd to April 27th and released last week which showed that Obama had a forty-six percent to forty-three percent lead over Clinton on this same question.

Hillary's greatest support is coming from women with high school education or less and low income voters. The margin of error is 3.1%.

Thanks to all who contributed to our TL Appreciation Days. We've had a great response and we thank every one of you. We'll bump it a few times until early afternoon tomorrow and then it will fade into the archives.

Here's an open thread for you. What haven't we covered? What more do you have to say?

Somerby reminds us today of Richard Cohen's classic example of double standards:

[RICHARD] COHEN (2/5/08): [. . . [I]n 2005, [Clinton] co-sponsored a bill that would make flag-burning illegal. . . . I was not alone in suggesting that on the flag issue, Clinton was readying herself for a presidential race and trying to blunt her image as a harridan of the political left.

. . . Look, I know what Obama was doing when he refused to confront his minister about the latter's embrace of Louis Farrakhan. . . . He will not get my Profiles in Courage award for this, but the rest of his record overwhelms this one chintzy act. Not so with Clinton. In the first place, you don't get to pander with the First Amendment. It is just too important, too central, not merely an amendment but a commandment: Thou Shalt Not Abridge Speech.

In his column the next week, the following correction:

COHEN (2/12/08): My Feb. 5 column was critical of Hillary Clinton for supporting a bill to make flag burning illegal. I have since learned from a reader that Barack Obama also supported that bill.

Heh. That is a classic.

Hillary:

• 2:30 p.m., Appearance in Merrillville, IN.
• 7:30 p.m., Rally in New Albany, IN.
• 9:45 p.m., Rally in Evansville, IN.

Here's Obama

• 7:30 p.m., Rally in Indianapolis, IN.
• 9:15 p.m., Appearance in Gary, IN. (Spouse)
• Time N/A, Appearance in Evansville, IN.

More...

A new Insider Advantage poll from North Carolina was released this afternoon. It was taken yesterday and shows Hillary and Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat: Obama 48%, Hillary 45%. Undecided: 7%.

Actual poll results are here.

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp."

The Insider Advantage Indiana poll is out. It's Hillary 48, Obama 44, with a 4 point margin of error. Actual results are here (pdf.)

Obama’s problem in Indiana is as clear as black and white, literally. It appears he will pull in his customary 80%-plus of African-Americans, but blacks make up only about 10% of all voters in the Indiana Democratic Primary. Meanwhile, Clinton is leading 54% to 41% among whites.