Here is the problem with the Left Blogs:

I get the sense that Clinton has decided to game entirely on going after conservative Democratic voters, using the gimmick of the gas tax holiday, pugilistic foreign policy ideas, and race-baiting.

And finally, the ease with which the destructive and inflammatory charge of "race baiting" is levelled, without citing even one example of this so called race baiting, is an indication that the Left blogs are simply smearmongers now. Disgraceful. Let me quote Charlie Rangel, ironically cited in the same post for other purposes:

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USA Today reports on its new poll conducted with Gallup:

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp.

The numbers:

In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.

Then there's this:

Eight of 10 Americans have been following [the Rev. Wright controversy] most of them closely...Just 1% of likely voters say Obama's links to Wright make them more likely to support him.

If I were an Indiana voter listening to Obama, I don't think I'd appreciate him telling me that since I've lost my job, I've lost my dignity. The crowd didn't react to the statement. Certainly no cheering.

See what you think.

A tv reporter tonight said Hillary Clinton is heading back to North Carolina tonight. Bill Clinton will make 11 stops there tomorrow and Hillary will make 2. (Here's how hard Bill's been working --3,500 came out to see him in Morganton today.)

The Obamas will also be in North Carolina, campaigning in Durham and Fayetteville.

What does it mean that both candidates are spending the day before the NC and IN primaries in NC?

There are 72 pledged delegates at stake in Indiana and 115 in North Carolina. Indiana hasn't voted for a Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. North Carolina voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 (by 13% and 12%). Even native son John Edwards on the ticket didn't matter. Since 1964, the Democratic Presidential ticket has carried N.C. only for Carter-Mondale in 1976..

Here are the latest voter stats, as of May 3, for North Carolina. As for Indiana, the New York Times explains it's very complicated. Maybe that's why the polls are so divergent.

Update: Comments now closed, new thread is here.

Public Policy Polling is suggesting that Obama will outperform the recent NC polling:

Barack Obama won three of the primaries in our surrounding states here in North Carolina- South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. And in all three of those states the polling vastly underestimated him . . . In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.

This is true. However, in South Carolina (1/25), Clinton and Edwards split the white vote (43% of the vote.) In Georgia (2/5), Clinton won the white vote (43% of the vote) by 53-43 (Edwards was still in the ballot and took 4%). Virginia (2/12) was, with Wisconsin (2/14), the last contested state where Obama won the white vote. Oh by the way, SUSA's polling was quite good for Virginia.

Don't miss "60 Minutes" tonight. It features the work of the Innocence Project of Texas, where in Dallas alone, 17 men have been freed after DNA proved them innocent. It includes an interview with several freed inmates, concentrating on James Woodward, freed last week after serving 27 years for a rape and murder he did not commit. The Texas Senate will be holding a summit on the wrongfully convicted on May 8.

Update: This was one of the most moving segments "60 Minutes" has ever done. It ends by telling viewers another 250 cases in Dallas County alone are under investigation. Watch it online if you missed it on TV.

Update: A poll of Northwest Indiana Democrats (Lake and Porter Counties) has Hillary ahead by 13 points- 46% to 33%.

Northwest Indiana is the state's second-largest pool of Democratic voters, behind Marion County. Lake County has the state’s highest concentration of Democrats, statistics show.

"If you want to be able to win in Indiana, you have to turn out the vote in Northwest Indiana," Eisenstein said. "This is the Democratic stronghold of the state."

***

It's another Jefferson Jackson Day Dinner tonight, this time in Indiana. Both Hillary and Obama will speak, at different times.

Update: 6:25 pm MT: Fox is about to broadcast Hillary's speech. Unbelievable that Geraldo has Jeanine Pirro, who ran unsuccessfully against Hillary for the Senate, as an analyst.

Some things to keep in mind about Indiana: [More....]

Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased -- he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago. However, among all registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats (regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama and Clinton are virtually tied -- 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Obama. This is similar to the numbers earlier in the week.

(Emphasis supplied.) Ha! That is one of the funniest things I have ever read. What pollster comes up with the "likely to have voted" screen? Even better, what are the numbers for the people who will vote in the upcoming primaries? Do you think they polled Puerto Rico? That may be a quarter of the remaining vote. [More...]

Kevin Drum does not understand discusses what the anti-Kelo forces want:

Three years ago, . . .Kelo v. New London [was decided.] . . . Here in California, though, nobody seems to have the horse sense to get it right. Two years ago the lunatic brigade offered up Proposition 90, which not only restricted eminent domain but also tried to enshrine a longtime wet dream of the property rights movement: demanding government compensation for any restriction on land use. . . .Prop 90 failed. Big surprise. But not by much: if its supporters had just offered a clean eminent domain initiative, it might have won.

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From Only in America, Newsweek's cover story today (page 4):

Eyeing those Reagan Democrats, the McCain camp believes that if Obama wins the nomination, the Republicans might have a shot at some states considered to be safe Clinton territory, like New York and New Jersey. Those big former industrial states—Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan—could all go Republican if the Democrats pick Obama. On the other hand, the Obama advisers argue that by appealing to independents and registering new young voters, Obama could take states in the West like Colorado and Nevada that seem unreachable to Clinton. By energizing his black base, Obama could even take away two or three Southern states—Virginia and the Carolinas, perhaps—from the GOP. The Obama-ites also predict that once the hard fighting of the primaries finally ends, the Democratic Party will come together, and Democrats alienated by all the feuding will come home.

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Rep. Heath Shuler (D- NC) is expected to follow his district in choosing the Dem Presidential candidate he will support:

Shuler, a freshman congressman, is expected to announce Monday that he will pledge his support to whichever Democratic candidate wins his district in Tuesday’s primary. . . . Given the demographics of Shuler’s district, Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is predicted to win there on Tuesday.

It is a neat trick more superdelegates should use if they fear political repercussions for their decisions. Clearly, Shuler wants to be for Clinton but does not want to say it directly. Other ways could be used by uncommitted superdelegates. For example, if Shuler wanted to be for Obama, he could have said he would vote the way the state voted overall. Ultimately, I believe the overall popular vote leader should be selected by the super delegates. But there are many ways to finesse this for the SDs.

By Big Tent Democrat

Back in February, Bloomberg and Politico published an internal spreadsheet from the Obama campaign with calculations on the pledged delegate and superdelegate split. The Clinton Campaign brought up the spreadsheet today, asking if Obama still thought he was going to win Indiana by 7 points.

The memo is here in Xcel. If you don't have Xcel, I've converted it to pdf and you can view it here.

Check all the states, the campaign was off on several. It predicted only a 5 point loss in PA, a 7 point loss in Ohio and an 11 point win in Guam. For NC, it predicts an 8 point win and for Indiana, a 7 point win. Also, for Montana, an 11 point win. For South Dakota, a 15 point win. For Puerto Rico, an 8 point loss. It also predicts double digit losses in KY and W.Va.

What do I take from this? Obama knew back in Feb. he needed to work to convince the rural and blue collar voters of Ohio and PA and was unable to do so. Those states are critical in November. Why should the superdelegates believe he can take them in November?