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Ras WV Poll: Clinton By 29

While tomorrow may be up in the air, the May 13 West Virginia primary is not in doubt. Ras sez Clinton by 29, 56-27.

BTW, here is Geoff Garin's answer to my Magic Number question. Here is the entire call.

Let's make this an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

< PPP NC Poll: Obama By 10 | Not Good At Math >
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    Wow (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:07:43 PM EST
    this is even higher than KUSA, and we all know KUSA is in the bag for Clinton.

    Did Garin's answer satisfy you?  

    Yes (none / 0) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:10:45 PM EST
    My problem was with the backtrack by Singer AFTER Garin's answer.

    Parent
    the backtrack was stupid (none / 0) (#5)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:12:08 PM EST
    These guys need to keep pushing single points each call and not back away from them.

    Parent
    She'll win it by more than that IMO (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:10:53 PM EST
    and also, per youtube, she's up on the air in WV today.

    Meanwhile, TMP has the entire Clinton conference call. I'm listening now.

    Hint to Campaign: give us a live web feed!

    I live right near WV (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by cawaltz on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:19:22 PM EST
    We're an hour away from WV. Populism plays here. Speak to folks wallets.

    Clinton needs to... (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by OrangeFur on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:20:47 PM EST
    ... really get a big turnout in WV. We need to have a good popular vote margin to take to the convention.

    Are we expecting an SUSA poll for North Carolina today?

    DNC RBC (5.00 / 3) (#33)
    by Step Beyond on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:23:09 PM EST
    In California Progress Report there is an article that includes some answers from Garry Shay, who sits on the DNC RBC who will be hearing the Ausman appeal on May 31.

    This caught my eye (emphasis angrily added):

    There's the fact that Hillary Clinton's name and the uncommitted slate was the only thing that was on the ballot in Michigan because the Democratic National Committee asked the other candidates to withdraw their names from the ballot. So, here you have the institution itself asking people to pull their names off the ballot.

    How does one get to sit on that committee and still not know the facts of the situation especially knowing the issue is coming up. The DNC never asked them to remove their names. Hell the pledge wasn't even made to the DNC. And he gets to vote on issues he hasn't taken the time to be informed about?

    If this goes anything like the last time Florida was in front of that committee, they will have made up their minds before hearing anything the state representatives have to say. It would be nice, if they at least made the effort to learn the facts on their own prior to the meeting then.

    As we have seen.... (5.00 / 3) (#45)
    by ineedalife on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:28:28 PM EST
    personal integrity is not a requirement for DNC membership.

    Parent
    But (none / 0) (#57)
    by Step Beyond on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:37:51 PM EST
    I was hoping that some sort of grounding in reality might be.

    I'll just have to find some contact info for him and introduce him politely to the facts that he seems to be missing.

    Parent

    please post (none / 0) (#116)
    by boredmpa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:29:16 PM EST
    contact info if you find it.  I do not consider multiple people informing party leaders that they need to have some knowledge of what they're doing to be harassment.

    I mean, when SF commissioners don't know the budget within a few million it's one thing...but this guy is about to rule on whether or not democrats win the election imho.

    Parent

    Competing Priorities in Conflict (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by Edgar08 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:38:35 PM EST
    FL and MI is one thing to focus on and I now see how raising the "magic number" works as far as that's concerned.  Which tends to place a lot of emphasis on delegates, pledged or otherwise.

    Here's the other thing:  The electoral argument that Obama is now being rejected by voters, if not delegates.  That folks shouldn't be thinking so much about a delegate lead and magic numbers but the popular vote and Obama's electability issues at this point.

    Just a question of focus, and I can definitely see how focussing on one too much and not the other would lead one to conclude that one was backtracking and giving up on the other.

    If you can hypothesize a situation where Obama met the higher magic number but still lost the popular vote, then I still think a lot of people are going to think the nomination was rigged.

    So that's really the task.  To make sure that the delegate count has some relationship to the popular vote, so that no side can say they were robbed.


    Teamsters - Hillary and Obama (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by Josey on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:41:28 PM EST
    WSJ - 5/5/08
    Sen. Barack Obama won the endorsement of the Teamsters earlier this year after privately telling the union he supported ending the strict federal oversight imposed to root out corruption, according to officials from the union and the Obama campaign.

    But naturally, Politico focuses on Hillary's statement -
    http://tinyurl.com/5h3ojc

    The Washington Monthly Magazine (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by ding7777 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:47:14 PM EST
    Charles Peters' "Tilting at windmills" in the April 2008 issue was oozing Obama (reading it again after Obama's reaction to Rev Wright's NPC speech makes Mr. Peters look foolish in his praise for the Obama/Wright situation).

    Anyway, Mr. Peters also offered, a Falling out of love blurb, with a bad case of Clinton Derangement Syndrome, when he wrote "the repeated attemps by the Clintons to make race a major issue" and Hillary's answer to the 60 Minutes question if she thought Obama was a Muslim as "There's nothing to base that on--as far as I know".

    After reading that distortion, I canceled my subscription and donated the expected refund to Hillary.

    The economy, stupid (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by Manuel on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:07:10 PM EST
    Which Democratic candidate is more likely to have the toughness required to impose the necessary new regulation on our financial system?

    Probably the one who doesn't go around praising the Republican approach to regulation.


    NC and IN prediction (4.00 / 1) (#60)
    by magster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:38:57 PM EST
    From the ashes will rise the phoenix of John Zogby's restored credibility...

    Obama by 15% in NC
    Obama by 3% in IN

    Heh (none / 0) (#69)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:43:14 PM EST
    Not with me. Zogby is not polling - he is posturing.

    He is taking a stab at it.

    He figures Obama has a chance in Indiana and Clinton does not in NC. He's right of course but he is STILL not a pollster.

    Parent

    everyone is so sure Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:47:43 PM EST
    has no chance in NC.
    what a wonderful Chihuahua fire drill it would cause if she won.

    Parent
    Excuse me (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:50:04 PM EST
    KUSA has clearly called NC for Clinton.

    Chihuahuas, indeed.

    Parent

    My conservative friend in western NC (none / 0) (#104)
    by oculus on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:12:10 PM EST
    agrees w/you.  He doesn't actually poll anyone either; he expects Wilder effect to kick in.  

    Parent
    I love the image (none / 0) (#82)
    by Democratic Cat on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:53:36 PM EST
    but she really doesn't have a chance. He should beat her by 10+. If he doesn't there is a problem -- NC is not winable by either Dem in November, but a close NC race means he is likely losing a lot of white support elsewhere.

    Parent
    I disagree (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:59:37 PM EST
    with your analysis.  I think it's not so much that Obama is losing white support (though I certainly agree that, to a percentage, he is), but that Clinton is getting more new voters to turn up who happen to be white.  It's as if they are coming out of their Bush-induced stupor and realizing that they can be proud to be dems again.

    WJC has been hitting these small towns like a nun at a wh*re house.  He's been energizing a set of voters who normally don't vote in primaries because they don't think their voices count.

    I predict a huge upswing of rural voters on par with the upswing of evangelicals who gave Bush his second term.  I hate making that kind of comparison, but WJC is gold in these small towns.  500 votes here, 700 votes there...it adds up.


    Parent

    oh please oh please oh please (none / 0) (#110)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:17:46 PM EST
    Zogby lost credibility... (none / 0) (#75)
    by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:48:47 PM EST
    a long time ago.

    No redemption.  After this election cycle, no one will quote them again.

    Parent

    thats what big dog said before PA (none / 0) (#107)
    by thereyougo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:13:21 PM EST
    about a fire in one her offices in PA. She'll rise
    out of the ashes like the Pheonix. ha--ha!

    Parent
    This one (none / 0) (#4)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:11:24 PM EST
    could turn into a 50 pt. blowout. I don't think that Obama has surpassed 30 pts. in any poll of this state.

    I say 40 pts. (none / 0) (#6)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:12:49 PM EST
    It's ALL appalachia. Should be her best state.

    Parent
    I'll be keeping the angiostura handy (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by MarkL on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:13:54 PM EST
    for celebration.

    Parent
    Why? (5.00 / 3) (#18)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:16:31 PM EST
    If she wins by that much, no reason to be. . . . bitter.

    Parent
    I like Old-Fashioneds (none / 0) (#39)
    by MarkL on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:27:45 PM EST
    Bitters and soda is good for heartburn. (none / 0) (#64)
    by magisterludi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:41:20 PM EST
    I'm keeping my fingers crossed Axelrod is all stocked up.

    Parent
    Bartender's Hiccup Cure (none / 0) (#89)
    by DFLer on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:00:33 PM EST
    OT

    Soak a piece of lime or lemon with bitters. Suck on it. It really works.

    Parent

    I never thought I'd see the day (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by oldnorthstate on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:15:10 PM EST
    Where we'd be looking at appalachia to help put a progressive candidate in the white house.

    Parent
    That Might Just Be (5.00 / 3) (#17)
    by dissenter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:16:29 PM EST
    What the problem has been lol

    Parent
    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by RalphB on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:27:51 PM EST
    you may be onto something with that comment. :-)

    Parent
    My family is from WV. (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by magisterludi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:57:56 PM EST
    I lived in Huntington from HS to college at Marshall (whole family are alumni) and my father's side were the only republicans I knew. FDR was a hero to my mother's side- the Rural Electrification Project saved many family farmers like my grandfather.

    Back in the seventies strip mining and acid rain runoff was a huge issue. The coal companies really know how to devastate. We cut our first Christmas tree (my now-husband and I) at an old strip mine site. A sorry little scrub pine in a moonscape. So sad in retrospect.

    Anyway, I still have lots of family there and they're all going HRC.

    Parent

    Hooray for Hunt-ting-ton. (none / 0) (#122)
    by liminal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:50:52 PM EST
    If you remember that lovely song...

    Cheers, I live in Huntington now, though I didn't attend HS here.   Nice to virtually meet you!  I remember when Bill Clinton visited Huntington in 1996 and campaigned with/for Charlotte Pritt.  

    Parent

    I'm going with 50 (3.00 / 1) (#8)
    by dissenter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:13:53 PM EST
    I don't see how he gets 30% of the vote there after Wright and the bitter remarks. They don't have that many colleges lol

    Parent
    And (none / 0) (#13)
    by cmugirl on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:15:28 PM EST
    most colleges are done with finals today. Campuses will be emptying out (if they haven't already)

    Parent
    do you get an image (2.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:14:51 PM EST
    of barefoot, banjo strumming hillbillies in your head when you say that?  :-)

    Parent
    why should (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:17:18 PM EST
    be barefoot banjo strummers be any different in WV than anywhere else Hillary has won?
    we're all the same.

    Parent
    heh, no (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:18:09 PM EST
    I see a lot of devastating poverty. I see mine collapses.

    Parent
    really? (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by kredwyn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:21:04 PM EST
    I was thinking about the mine rehabilitation programs. A friend of mine used to be part of one program.

    Parent
    Don't forget the washboard (none / 0) (#44)
    by oculus on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:28:26 PM EST
    [such an amazing article about the lone mfg. of washboards in the U.S.]:

    NYT

    Parent

    HuffPo will just re-post the picture... (none / 0) (#93)
    by ineedalife on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:04:31 PM EST
    of the good ol' boys that they had after the PA election.
    Well, maybe they have to have another casting call to find two goobers with even fewer teeth left this time.

    Parent
    Don't care (none / 0) (#101)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:09:48 PM EST
    HuffPo is so rudely biased toward Obama that I wouldn't even consider giving that site a "hit".

    Parent
    Ahh West Virginia (none / 0) (#7)
    by CST on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:13:38 PM EST
    Beautiful to drive through, not too much variety in the way of radio stations though.

    Probably the most stunning place I've been to in this country (I have never been West of the Mississippi except San Diego)

    Eastern TN and SW VA... (none / 0) (#16)
    by kredwyn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:16:07 PM EST
    Drove through both of them on my way home from TX once.

    That area is just stunning.

    I lived in Boulder for a while, but I love the combination of thickthick trees and mountains.

    Parent

    the green, green (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by Molly Pitcher on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:20:38 PM EST
    hills of home!

    Parent
    Part of my growing up (none / 0) (#127)
    by kredwyn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:16:20 PM EST
    was spent in the Catskills...and I did my undergrad at WVU.

    Being in Boulder felt weird...you had mountains but very few trees. They looked bare without the heavy forestation.

    Parent

    I saw this today and had to share.... (none / 0) (#10)
    by cmugirl on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:14:30 PM EST
    (Hopefully no one is eating at their computer)

    You keyboard:  Dirtier than a toilet

    Ok - not pleasant, but since we all spend so much time on computers, I thought it was interesting. (Also, maybe we can collectively curse the Blogger Boiz to a week of tummy aches)

    I've seen that before (none / 0) (#15)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:15:49 PM EST
    Your phone is filthy too.

    Parent
    That's why I'm a believer (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by cmugirl on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:17:28 PM EST
    In carrying hand sanitizer with me every where I go - probably creating some super-germ that will be resistant to antibiotics some day.


    Parent
    how did we live (none / 0) (#24)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:19:17 PM EST
    before hand sanitizer?

    Parent
    I buy 10 bottles at a time (none / 0) (#36)
    by dissenter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:24:33 PM EST
    And take it to Afghanistan. It still doesn't help. You have never seen a nastier place. I throw out all my clothes every time I come home. The place is disgusting. I use to run down to the base once a week just to eat and get take out just to try to keep from getting completely sick. They hang their meat and place their vegetable carts right next to the open "sewers".

    Parent
    not to go to far off course (none / 0) (#66)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:41:38 PM EST
    but I have a very good friend who was married to an Afgan man who had some great stories to tell.
    one was of public bathrooms.  which is basically a spot like your dog would pick.  where (men only) sort of just back up hike up their gelabas and have at it.  so to speak.
    needless to say women did not do this.
    some of the other good stories involved the custom of men having a "little boy" as a "playmate".
    but we wont go there.

    Parent
    speaking of dirter than a toilet (none / 0) (#22)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:18:19 PM EST

    Slate: Rumors of more Monicas

    Parent
    Aw, Bill is making too much headway? (4.00 / 1) (#40)
    by BarnBabe on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:27:48 PM EST
    Bill is zooming all over the states and doing quite well. Must be time to send in Bill's Wright. They can't get her so they go after him. The only thing is that Bill's popularity hit very high numbers during that time and people will see it for what it is. Desperation.

    Parent
    Nice segue! (nt) (none / 0) (#26)
    by cmugirl on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:20:46 PM EST
    so THAT's why the Economy was good (none / 0) (#51)
    by Josey on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:30:47 PM EST
    in the 90s!
    Great! - if it takes a 100 Monicas to improve the Economy - so be it.
    I sure don't have any faith in Obama.
    The only numbers he's interested in are more widgets for his "movement."


    Parent
    Germs are good for you! (none / 0) (#23)
    by CST on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:18:35 PM EST
    They build your immune system... or something...

    Parent
    Aieeeeeeeee! (none / 0) (#28)
    by eleanora on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:20:55 PM EST
    Yuck, yuck, yuck, bleargh.

    ~Finds disinfectant wipes and q-tips, spends day cleaning~

    Parent

    Whew (none / 0) (#48)
    by Step Beyond on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:29:47 PM EST
    Thankfully, I just cleaned keyboard and mouse thoroughly last week. Otherwise I would be grossed out by that.

    Parent
    is Obama putting ANYTHING (none / 0) (#14)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:15:48 PM EST
    into the State?  Or is he letting Hillary walk away with it?

    Since I live here! (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by liminal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:10:10 PM EST
    He is putting some resources into WV, though he hasn't put much time in here, himself.  Obama has more campaign offices in the state, and opened them sooner than HRC.  Clinton has fewer offices, but gets pretty reasonable coverage from the offices she has, in Charleston, Fairmont, Beckley and somewhere in the eastern panhandle (where the self-same Carnacki is from - mostly D.C. ex-urbs, very Republican, and not much like the rest of the state; note: we kept the eastern panhandle when we seceded from Virginia during the Civil War because there were some important rail lines there.  I do like the panhandle - there's lovely country on that side of the continental divide - but it's not much like the rest of the state).  

    I live in Huntington, the second-largest city in the state.  We have an Obama office downtown, but no Clinton office.  There's one in Charleston, which is an hour's drive east, though, and the campaign has space in an old laborer's union hall in Htng to use for GOTV meetings and training, et cetera.  There are definitely more Obama signs up in people's yards, but most of the campaign signs scattered around the city are for local races - and there are a ton of local races.  WE elect our magistrates (and there is no educational requirement for magistrates in WV), circuit judges, sheriff, mayor, state legislators, secretary of state, city council, school board, various county offices, and 2 state supreme court justices, and for many of these races, the primary will be more important than the general.  

    So, there are loads of signs for so-and-so for magistrate or XYZ for the at-large city council seat or whosits for mayor just everywhere.  If you want to know how important the Democratic primary is for statewide offices, there are 2 slots on the state supreme court, 1 open, 1 held by a somewhat embattled conservative Democrat.  There are four Democratic candidates, but just 1 Republican.  There's an open seat on the county circuit court too.  Two Democrats are running, and no Republicans.  

    Okay - clearly I like talking about WV.  

    That said, yeah - he has money here.  And he has volunteers.  Even though I'm volunteering for Clinton and hope she wins, I'm happy to see that.  I had a phone call from a local Obama volunteer, and one of my co-workers said a canvasser visited his house.  He lives a street and a half over from me and I didn't get any such visitor, but I was harrowing my soon-to-be vegetable garden in the back yard, and have a Clinton sign in my front yard, so they probably figured me for a lost cause.  :)

    Hillary and Bill and Chelsea, though, have spent much more time campaigning in WV than Obama and/or his surrogates have done.  He's not been back since he visited Charleston and Beckley back in March.

    Contrary to lots of people on this thread, I think that the race will be tighter than it appears.  I've found that the coalfields (where Clinton will be strongest) have abysmally bad turnout, and that early voting hasn't improved that at all.  Obama will run fairly well in the population centers and in the eastern panhandle.  While it is true that finals are over, we've had early voting since 4/23.  I know that Obama folks had early voting parties over the weekend.  Me, I haven't voted early because I still haven't figured out which magistrate candidates are the least incompetent, and whether I can stomach voting for ANY of our candidate for state Supreme Court.

    Parent

    Thank you (none / 0) (#118)
    by ineedalife on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:31:08 PM EST
    Always good to get the good stuff straight from the source. Keep us posted please.

    Parent
    He's got a new ad up (4.40 / 5) (#52)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:32:24 PM EST
    Fade into Obama's smiling face;  "Hi, I'm Barack Obama.  I know you're bitter..."

    cut to: toothless hillbilly swilling moonshine

    voice-over: "Growing up with a single mother on food stamps, I understand what it means when I say that you have no dignity."

    cut to: same hillbilly copulating with a large, fairly attractive pig

    voice-over:  "No one worked harder than me those two and a half years I was a community organizer in Chicago."  

    cut to: Rezko slum

    voice-over "And understanding your plight is in my DNA."

    cut to: pic of Obama with grandparents on the beaches of Wookey Weekey Peachy.

    voice-over: "I will delegate to the right individuals the responsibility of keeping your drinking water clean"

    cut to: pic of Lake Erie

    voice-over: "And I'll make sure you continue to receive inadequate healthcare, sub-standard schooling and all the things you've come to enjoy under the progressive Bush administration."

    montage: hillbilly in hospital/hillbilly crammed into old-fashioned school desk/hillbilly passed out under waving American flag (pig optional).

    voice over: "and PS: Hillary sucks."

    Parent

    thank God (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:38:14 PM EST
    the pig was attractive, right?

    I so hate that stereo-type of the hillbilly who can't hook-up with an attractive pig.

    (snark)

    Parent

    they thought it was important (5.00 / 2) (#63)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:41:11 PM EST
    to avoid the obvious stereotypes...

    Parent
    I was disappointed (3.50 / 2) (#70)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:47:04 PM EST
    they didn't have Granny hawking tobacky into a spitoon from the front porch while singing a hymn to the yung'uns gathered around her.

    But it was only a 30-second spot.

    Parent

    Breaking! PUSA Poll (none / 0) (#77)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:50:17 PM EST
    the older female Dachshund poked her nose from beneath the blanket and indicated she'd prefer Hillary.

    The younger male Norwich Terrier stretched and indicated he wanted Dinner.  We'll count that as Undecided.

    But the Dachshund and I are sure we can sway him to the Hillary Camp with talk about her strength, experience, policy points ... and a cookie.

    Parent

    Foreign Policy (none / 0) (#90)
    by waldenpond on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:00:40 PM EST
    Explain Clinton's foreign trade policy to enforce China regulations with regards to pet food contamination.  Even if they are of the 'elite' class and enjoy home prepared food, tell them how important it is for the good of all puppies (and kittens), especially those less fortunate.

    Parent
    tried that (none / 0) (#95)
    by ccpup on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:05:32 PM EST
    the Dachshund burrowed further under her blanket (she knows Hillary's Policies inside-and-out and is a staunch supporter) but the Norwich turned his back on me and went back to sleep.  

    As he's only 3, I guess Hillary has more work to do with that latte-liberal (he IS a Greenwich Village pup, after all) youth vote.

    :-)

    Parent

    I can see it all so clearly... (none / 0) (#124)
    by DJ on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:55:08 PM EST
    There was a post awhile ago on MYDD (4.00 / 1) (#34)
    by ineedalife on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:23:53 PM EST
    The posters name was Carnacki. A DKos regular, I think. Apparently he was overjoyed that Obama's minions zerged the county conventions that have already happened in WV, and thus pulled off a backroom power-grab. If I understood it correctly, that means they will have undue influence over the delegate selection process and therefore blunt any Clinton blowout. You know, undo the "will of the people" that they like to scream about so much.

    Parent
    Obama will reach pledged delegate majority (none / 0) (#30)
    by magster on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:21:35 PM EST
    on May 20.

    Would that cause a flood of SD's (app. 130 more) to Obama that would have him reach the lower number before nuclear option day?  If so, Obama can have the press declare him the nominee before Hillary can take her next major procedural maneuver to have MI and FL count.

    I don't see how Clinton could succesfully employ nuclear option on 5/31 if Obama hits 2025 before that date.

    That's impossible. Neither candidate can hit 2025 (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by vicsan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:28:22 PM EST
    without MI and FL. THAT is THE problem we have here. It's WHY the SDs will decide this election unless the DNC should get a brain and count the 2 states.

    Parent
    Obama can't win FL (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by Josey on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:33:10 PM EST
    but Obama supporters say he won't need it in the general.
    Yes, many of them are young.


    Parent
    I know. He's going to win Colorado (5.00 / 2) (#78)
    by vicsan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:50:30 PM EST
    and Virginia instead, so FL. and MI are disposable now. What kind of sick, twisted logic is that?

    Parent
    Colorado? (none / 0) (#123)
    by christinep on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:54:22 PM EST
    Well, don't count on the "purple state" of Colorado to vote Democratic in a Presidential race.  History suggests otherwise.  Certainly, there is a lot of progress here.  But, in the last 50 years or so, I believe CO went Democratic for LBJ and for Clinton (the 1992 race was 3-way--so we saw a plurality.)  The point: Obama's electoral vote strategy--in view of dissing Fla & Mich and in view of his not-so-good prospects in Ohio & Pa--seems groundlessly grounded in the "hope" of Colo, N.Mex & Nev.  It is hard to see all 3 wins.  Also: Consider what the effect in the upper Midwest might be if McCain selects someone like Minn Governor Pawlenty as his VP choice. Just ruminating.

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    Yep! That's his spin for not counting (none / 0) (#128)
    by vicsan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:24:20 PM EST
    MI and FL! He's going to win COLORADO and Virginia instead. He's delusional!

    Parent
    Painfully (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by magisterludi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:04:50 PM EST
    young.

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    But didn't we see this morning (none / 0) (#99)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:07:45 PM EST
    that they will need more than 2025 if MI and FL get seated?

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    Nuclear? (none / 0) (#37)
    by Step Beyond on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:26:19 PM EST
    What "nuclear option?" I've seen that twice today and would like to know exactly what people who use that term are referencing?

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    I am sure it was (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by eric on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:55:34 PM EST
    part of the daily Obama talking points.  Something about how Clinton will go nuclear by demanding delegates from Michigan and Florida.

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    No (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:01:44 PM EST
    Forcing the seating of FA and MI (none / 0) (#47)
    by cannondaddy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:29:13 PM EST
    through the credentials commitee.

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    Or what? (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Step Beyond on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:33:24 PM EST
    Doesn't the term "nuclear option" imply a "or we'll blow this thing up" component? I didn't think it was sufficient to label it nuclear just to ask for a vote.

    And even if they win the credentials committee vote, isn't it still able to go to the full convention vote through a minority appeal? So Clinton could still fail to get those delegates seated right?

    What I'm missing is how is that process nuclear?

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    Because they say it is? (none / 0) (#62)
    by nycstray on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:40:39 PM EST
    ya know, "she'll do anything . . ."

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    Here's a story about it: (none / 0) (#50)
    by vicsan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:30:37 PM EST
    Not going over to HuffPo (none / 0) (#108)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:13:35 PM EST
    she'll have to change her biased reporting to get more hits on her site.

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    Aparently if Obama nukes Israel. . . (none / 0) (#56)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:34:19 PM EST
    Hillary has promised massive retaliation.

    I think that's it.

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    If Hillary wins NC and IN... (none / 0) (#73)
    by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:47:55 PM EST
    I don't think there will be this flood of SDs to Obama, especially from states that Hillary won.  So many are sitting back, waiting to see what happens.

    Shame on Dean and the DNC.  They tried to get me to donate money and I refused.  Dean is trying to move this primary back into the direction HE wants, not the Democratic voters.  

    The next two contests will go to Hillary BIG TIME- WV and KY.  She will also win big in PR and MO.  Obama may win OR and SD, but not by big margins.

    Also, Hillary will get another surge of donations on Wednesday.  Face it Obama, you aren't good enough to take on this woman.  Perhaps Obama should go back to the Senate and learn a little more instead of thinking a Harvard degree affords him the presidency.

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    Could we put an end. . . (5.00 / 2) (#85)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:55:08 PM EST
    Dean is trying to move this primary back into the direction HE wants, not the Democratic voters.

    to this silliness?  As far as I can tell, both sides are absolutely convinced that the DNC is acting to steal the election from them.

    In retrospect the path that the DNC chose to attempt to keep Florida and Michigan in line in terms of the primary calendar may not have been such a great idea.  But the basic issue, trying to restore primary scheduling sanity, is perfectly valid.

    Outside of that boondoggle, Dean has consistently said that the process should run its course until sometime closer to the convention.  I'm sure he's still hoping that one candidate will be leading in all major metrics by the end of the primaries so that a bloodletting can be avoided.

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    As a certified old fogey, (none / 0) (#106)
    by Molly Pitcher on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:12:56 PM EST
    I have no objection at all if the convention decides (with Fl/MI seated). Going to the convention gives the delegates a chance to change their votes on a second roll call.  The Chicago affair was abominable, but that was made lots worse by the mayor's actions.  I tend to believe that the smoke-filled rooms of legend may have done a better job than the DNC has been doing planning their coronation ceremonies.

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    The last Oregon poll I saw (4.00 / 1) (#83)
    by vicsan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:54:32 PM EST
    had Hillary within 6 of Obama. She COULD beat him there. One more state he was "expected" to win and may lose. Then what? The SDs certainly aren't going to flock to him.

    He was expected to win Indiana because it's his neighboring state. I wonder how his campaign will spin that one after he loses tomorrow?

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    West Virginia is like Mississippi (none / 0) (#31)
    by Prabhata on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:21:53 PM EST
    Mississippi went for Obama and now we WV going for Hillary because of the demographics.  I think it's hilarious.

    Yay! Go, WV! (none / 0) (#32)
    by vicsan on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:22:46 PM EST
    WV is not just one of the most beautiful states we have, IMO, but the voters are very smart too!:)

    I drive through WV when I visit my sister in Virginia and it really is breathtakingly beautiful!

    very much like my state (none / 0) (#38)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:27:13 PM EST
    arkansas

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    Heber Springs! (none / 0) (#96)
    by magisterludi on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:06:07 PM EST
    one of the most beautiful places (none / 0) (#115)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:27:28 PM EST
    on earth.
    IMO

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    Yes, my father (none / 0) (#120)
    by nashville on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:32:40 PM EST
    & his second family used to live there.

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    This is waaaay out there, but (none / 0) (#35)
    by Anne on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:24:25 PM EST
    I'm still trying to grasp the concept of the multimillion dollar "Baghdad Zoo and Entertainment Experience," complete with water park.

    From the article:

    Mr Werner, chairman of C3, a Los Angeles-based holding company for private equity firms, is pouring millions of dollars into developing the Baghdad Zoo and Entertainment Experience, a massive American-style amusement park that will feature a skateboard park, rides, a concert theatre and a museum. It is being designed by the firm that developed Disneyland. "The people need this kind of positive influence. It's going to have a huge psychological impact," Mr Werner said.

    [snip]

    Mr Werner, who has been sold a 50-year lease on the site by the Mayor of Baghdad for an undisclosed sum, says that the time is ripe for the amusement park. "I think people will embrace it. They'll see it as an opportunity for their children regardless if they're Shia or Sunni. They'll say their kids deserve a place to play and they'll leave it alone."

    [snip]

    But Mr Werner, whose company manages several hundred million dollars of equity, sees Iraq as a great opportunity. "Iraq to me is an open field. I have never in my life seen an opportunity with the potential that Iraq has with its skilled workforce and oil reserves." He has begun partnerships with several Iraqi factories in the last year, investing tens of millions of dollars in joint ventures. But the Baghdad Zoo and Entertainment Experience could prove the most ambitious. General David Petraeus, head of US forces, is said to be a "big supporter" of the project, according to Mr Brinkley.

    [just shaking my head]

    I know (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by dissenter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:28:19 PM EST
    I spent a year there. I fell over laughing and I mean holding my side laughing when I read that. I remember laying at the pool at the embassy and watching a rocket go overhead. That is all I could think about.

    Parent
    He wants to what? (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by kredwyn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:30:15 PM EST
    Put up a zoo slash WallyWorld in Baghdad?

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    There was a zoo there (none / 0) (#55)
    by dissenter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:33:54 PM EST
    Back during the CPA days - before I got there - they use to walk down there for date night. Most of the animals were gone when I got there but the old zoo was legendary. It is where Saddam's son use to terrorize women and opponents of the regime. It has a nasty history. They still have the cages though so they should be all set lol

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    Yul Brenner at Westworld. (none / 0) (#102)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:09:55 PM EST
    Ugh... (none / 0) (#126)
    by kredwyn on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:08:15 PM EST
    This reminds me of when they were talking about turning the Maze prison (Northern Ireland) into a tech park.

    Not sure if they did it, but it sounded like a really weird idea considering all of the various things that went on in there.

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    i think mr. werner, (none / 0) (#61)
    by cpinva on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:38:59 PM EST
    if he's serious, has just given a new definition to the term "extreme optimist".

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    He is off his rocker (none / 0) (#68)
    by dissenter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:43:04 PM EST
    But I have to tell you, if the conditions were right, I would go work on it. If children anywhere deserve an entertainment complex it is in Baghdad.

    I use to live behind a school but there were walls between my house and the school. I could hear them laughing and playing all day but never once saw them. It was really sad. When it went quiet, you knew something was going to blow up soon. They would warn the school to put the kids inside.

    I use to think how horrible it was that their childhood had been reduced to that.

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    Yeah, but how well is it going to run (none / 0) (#67)
    by FlaDemFem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:42:09 PM EST
    with electricity or water, both of which are iffy in Iraq at the moment. And who in Iraq has money to spend on that sort of idiocy? Plus, imagine what the imams are going to say about it, especially since they won't have separate lines, etc. for the women. What kind of idiot invests in something like that??

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    You would be surpised (none / 0) (#74)
    by dissenter on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:48:06 PM EST
    At what stupid projects can be funded in Baghdad. One correction though. Baghdad was never a place where women and men were separated. Lots of women didn't even have to wear head scarves. All that came in with the militias and the civil war. Brought on by us of course but just so you know, Baghdad wasn't that way before we waltzed in.

    Girls and boys both went to school. Men and women both voted. Women were doctors, etc. The problem now is anyone that could get out did so there is nothing to work with as far as a professional class to fix things. That is a big frustration for reconstruction.

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    That was when Saddam was in charge... (none / 0) (#129)
    by FlaDemFem on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:30:51 PM EST
    he isn't any more, and the imams are starting to erase the secularism that was a bone of contention between Saddam and his neighbors. I read some of the blogs coming out of Iraq and the women are being shoved back into the 12th century again. And a western style amusement park is just going to accelerate the process.

    Parent
    Well BTD, I listened to your question (none / 0) (#80)
    by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:51:17 PM EST
    and I seemed to me like they agreed that victory should only be possible for FL and MI were counted. However, I agree that the way they answered your last attempt at pining them down sounded like they were avoiding committing to a specific number.

    My analysis is that they agree with your first statement, but weren't sure that 2209 was actually the right number.

    I believe (none / 0) (#84)
    by Kathy on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:54:40 PM EST
    that they were caught unawares, and there were furious scribblings going on, because they didn't know what the approved answer would be.

    Hopefully, they'll be better on this point after they talk to the Boss.

    Parent

    Anyone know if SUSA will have a final NC poll? nt (none / 0) (#81)
    by Annie M on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:53:26 PM EST


    Just found it elsewhere (SUSA final NC) (4.50 / 2) (#121)
    by Marvin42 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:36:07 PM EST
    Link here

    I am stunned.

    Parent

    Thanks! n/t (none / 0) (#125)
    by Annie M on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:56:56 PM EST
    Oh well (none / 0) (#92)
    by dmk47 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:03:21 PM EST
    Just when there seemed to be a sign that the Clinton campaign had ruled out trying to turn the convention into Jonestown...

    Anyway, always encouraging to see a "Big Tent" Democrat --- the sort risibly claiming to support a candidate he despises on electability grounds that he strives tirelessly to undermine --- claiming that misapplied and misunderstood democratic values demand seating Florida and Michigan, at the cost of (a) violating basic procedural fairness and (b) gift-wrapping the election for John McCain.

    Counting votes like suicide? For Obama, (5.00 / 1) (#97)
    by MarkL on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:06:16 PM EST
    maybe. For Democrats, it's sweet success.

    Parent
    Not just Jonestown (5.00 / 2) (#100)
    by eric on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:08:47 PM EST
    its nuclear Jonestown....stay with the talking points!

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    The Brian Jones Town Massacre (none / 0) (#105)
    by Salo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:12:44 PM EST
    has gone Nuku-lar.

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    Why are Democrats so afraid? (none / 0) (#114)
    by Manuel on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:25:08 PM EST
    The party is closely divided (for good reasons).  There are two popular candidates with wide appeal and passionate supporters.  The "conservative" candidate in the race is on the left of the "liberal" candidate on many issues.  Under these circumstances we should be striving for exceptional fairness while following our very flawed process to the end.  Let everyone vote and allow both candidates to make their case for why they should be the nominee.  Among bloggers I read, BTD has been exceptional in advocating this course of action.  You can't get more big tent than that.

    BTW Kristol on the NYT mentions that while McCain is ahead of Obama in polls, an Obama/Clinton ticket comes out ahead of a McCain/Romney ticket.  BTW Jindal will, in time, be a formidable opponent.  I can see a lot of young Obama supporters switching to his side.

    Parent

    Jonestown? (none / 0) (#119)
    by Steve M on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:32:32 PM EST
    Man, the Bataan Death March wasn't an offensive enough analogy for you people?  You must have loved the MyDD diary about why the Kentucky Derby is a metaphor for Tuesday.

    Parent
    Michigan (none / 0) (#109)
    by zebedee on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:14:15 PM EST
    I listened to the call and they again made the point that Obama took himself off the Michigan ballot voluntarily, for "political reasons" but I think they don't make their case fully. Obama made a calculation, that pandering to Iowa and NH was worth more than the Michigan votes (presumably they did not guess that HRC would campaign to have them counted nor that the popular vote would come into play).

    Arguably he made the right call, where would Obama be without that Iowa win? Having cashed in on the upside (by winning Iowa and almost tieing NH) they can't now argue against the downside.

    funny (none / 0) (#112)
    by boredmpa on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:22:56 PM EST
    Obama's ad was just as "negative". I mean really, wtf.

    Some facts & an opinion (none / 0) (#113)
    by wurman on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:24:41 PM EST
    There are 4,416 delegate slots available for the Democratic Party convention.  At present, 367 of the delegates cannot vote--FL & MI penalty by the Standing Credentials Committee.

    To my knowledge, the Standing Rules Committee has not met & reduced the total delegate votes that are available, nor have they changed the 50 percent plus one rule.

    At the convention, the 3 standing committees will each expand from 25 to 186, with 183 voting members.  The 161 added members, per committee (483 total) will come from the state delegations in approximate proportion to the overall percentage of selected delegates at the convention.  The Credentials committee may choose to make changes, or may not.  Same with Rules, & it appears that the Platform Committee has no bearing on this issue.

    An easy fix for Dr. Dean is to leave the majority number for the nomination at 2,209 and seat the FL & MI delegations with no votes.

    At all times, the 2,025 number has been a very questionable extrapolation.

    "Going nuclear" could be moves that force both committee & floor battles on 2 different fronts, then using procedural tactics to tie-up the convention.  If it takes 2,209 to pass a motion, nothing will be finished.  If they attempt to change the number to 2,025, there may not be enough votes in committee or on the floor to make the change.  Stalemate.

    Cue Monty Hall & let's make a deal.

    Wow (none / 0) (#117)
    by Steve M on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:30:39 PM EST
    "the most bruising to date"?  No wonder these people went bananas over a half-second of bin Laden footage.  But the media never misses a chance to push the narrative that Hillary is unfairly attacking, because, you know, that's just the sort of thing a b** like her would do.

    Tom Hanks (none / 0) (#130)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:33:54 PM EST
    gave a fairly odd endorsement to Obama today. He created a self-filmed little blurb that's been shown on Hardball.

    He's entitled, and I don't care that he wants to vote for Obama. He did make a bit of a funny along the lines of "now that you know who I'm voting for, you can choose your candidate".

    My gripe is that he listed a few previous presidents (JFK and before), and Ronald Reagan as the comparison to Obama's greatness.

    I'm sick of the Obama campaign diminishing Bill Clinton's presidency by refusing to acknowledge it as one of the finest we've have in decades.

    Guess I've seen my last Tom Hanks film.  I abandoned Mel Gibson after his endorsement of Bush and drunken politican rantings. My life is richer without these people.


    What Michelle Said... (none / 0) (#131)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 05, 2008 at 04:40:23 PM EST
    Chuck Todd on Hardball today said that Michelle Obama has made the statement that this is the ONLY time Obama will campaign for president. Her explanation was that in another four years they will be so above the ordinary citizens financially they will no longer be in touch enough with the issues of regular people.

    OMG

    Interesting story that busts HuffPo (none / 0) (#132)
    by AnninCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 05:42:00 PM EST
    http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/05/busted-west-memphis-church-responds-to.html

    Remember the preacher who asked McCain about the c*nt remark?  Turns out....he was a Huff plant.

    Whoa*......how low can one go?

    For an exercise in self-flagellation, (none / 0) (#133)
    by MarkL on Mon May 05, 2008 at 06:55:11 PM EST
    read This

    I'm not sure how to categorize this. Maybe "an expert in racism spews racist bile".

    Absurd (none / 0) (#134)
    by AnninCA on Mon May 05, 2008 at 07:12:59 PM EST
    isn't it?  Didn't you love how the Latino vote was somehow now all Obama's.  

    Parent