NC: Lessons From VA, SC and GA?

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:08:30 PM EST
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Public Policy Polling is suggesting that Obama will outperform the recent NC polling:

Barack Obama won three of the primaries in our surrounding states here in North Carolina- South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. And in all three of those states the polling vastly underestimated him . . . In all three cases Obama won by double digits more than the average preelection poll suggested, and no one got within seven points of the correct margin in any of the states.

This is true. However, in South Carolina (1/25), Clinton and Edwards split the white vote (43% of the vote.) In Georgia (2/5), Clinton won the white vote (43% of the vote) by 53-43 (Edwards was still in the ballot and took 4%). Virginia (2/12) was, with Wisconsin (2/14), the last contested state where Obama won the white vote. Oh by the way, SUSA's polling was quite good for Virginia.

SUSA's polling was quite prescient. It predicted Obama would take 47% of the white vote (63% of the vote) and 86% of the African American vote (29%), with Obama winning by 22. The exit polls showed Obama winning 52% of the white vote (61% of the vote)and 90% of the African American vote (30% of the vote). Obama won by 29.

For North Carolina, SUSA is predicting, as of now, the following, Obama will get 30% of the white vote (61%) and 87% of the African American vote (33%). Obama by 5. If SUSA has the same errors as in Virginia, Obama takes 35% of the white (59% of the vote) and 90% of the A-A vote (34% of the vote.) What does this translate into? 54-46 Obama.

SUSA is the best pollster in this cycle. I think an 8 point Obama win in North Carolina is what we should expect.

By Big Tent Democrat

< "60 Minutes" Tonight Features Innocence Project and Wrongfully Convicted | Clintons, Obama Head Back to North Carolina Monday >

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NC: Lessons From VA, SC and GA? | 61 comments (61 topical)

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When is the next SUSA poll?? (5.00 / 2) (#1)
by athyrio on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:20:07 PM EST

I hope tomorrow....

: Think so. (none / 0) (#20)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:05:18 PM EST

They should have NC and IN.

RE: (5.00 / 0) (#6)
by az on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:35:41 PM EST

I would caution PPP to throw their polls in the garbage.

Obama is going back to NC and Hillary Clinton is heading back their tonight .

I stick with my prediction she wins NC in a squeaker due to her strength in the west and the mountains , she comes close to a 5 point spread in Raleigh.(Obama underperforms ).

Its not a coincidence they are both heading back to the state.

Rep. Shuler endorses Hillary tomorrow (none / 0) (#8)
by Josey on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:43:37 PM EST

because she's projected to win his NC district.


Rep. Shuler endorses Hillary tomorrow (none / 0) (#9)
by Josey on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:43:37 PM EST

RE : (none / 0) (#13)
by az on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:48:31 PM EST

She has two events tomorrow in NC , I expect he would endorse her at one of her events.

However a note of caution , even if she wins NC on Tuesday which I think she would , I believe she won't be able to wrest the nomination from her .


: Could you rewrite your last 2 sentences (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by ding7777 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:09:20 PM EST

with names? Too many she's and not enough he's - and I got lost

Lessons from Pennsylvania and Ohio (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by BDB on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:44:31 PM EST

One of the things in the polls of Pennsylvania and Ohio is that while the spread between the candidates went up and down, Obama rarely if ever got more than 45% in any poll.

In North Carolina, that is true for Hillary. While the spread differs, no poll has her above 44% ever. Going all the way back to last May. That may be close to her ceiling, as it was for Obama in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Obama's support bounces around, sometimes topping 50%, but she never gets out of the low or mid-40s.

Indiana, OTOH, has had polls where each has topped 50%.

So, I'd say that NC is probably out of Clinton's reach, but if she gets 45% or better, that's more than she's ever polled. OTOH, there's no reason why Obama can't win Indiana. He's had a number of polls where he's polled over 50%.

: Pretty much (none / 0) (#41)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:48:08 PM EST

That's why I say that NC is Obama's PA.
Still, I think IN is Hillary's to keep.

: Doesn't Obama under perform? (none / 0) (#51)
by SueBonnetSue on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:27:34 AM EST

I was under the impression that more voters tell posters they are going to vote for Obama than those who do actually vote for him.
Obama would NEVER win Virginia if the primary was now. People in Virginia voted for Obama before they had a chance to really see and know Hillary's campaign. Not that matters, my state is in love with McCain because the Navy. Too many Navy people here. ugh.

: however, (none / 0) (#58)
by ghost2 on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:29:53 AM EST

I noted that in OH, PA, and Texas (and some other recent states), you could get a good estimate of the vote by noting the RCP average, and then splitting the undecided 2-1 for Hillary:
PA: RCA H/O= 49.5 vs. 43.4
Actual: 54.6 vs. 45.4
(Note, Hillary is +5, Obama is +2, so undecideds are gone 5-2 for Hillary.)
OH: RCA H/O=50.1 vs. 43.0
Actual: 54.2 vs. 44.1
(undecideds have gone 4 to 1 for Hillary).
TX: RCA H/O= 47.4 vs. 45.7
Actual: 50.9 to 47.4
(undecided split 3.5 to 1.7 for Hillary)
Now, granted none of these states have a large AA voter percentage.
So, I hope she has a better than expected performance in Indiana, has a really good showing in N.C.

PPI (none / 0) (#2)
by Ga6thDem on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:27:07 PM EST

Aren't they the ones that predicted Obama would win PA? They might be better about NC but I'm with you on SUSA. Right now I would imagine that Obama will get 90% of the AA vote and Hillary will get about 70% of the white vote.

Remember also that many candidates have tried the Obama way: jack up the votes in the cities and lose. I'm not saying that he's going to lose NC just that it's really hard to tell how this is going to come out.

I'm guessing that the Bradley effect (none / 0) (#3)
by athyrio on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:28:12 PM EST

will show up in NC

I call it the Wright effect (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:52:27 PM EST

because we haven't seen a contest post-post-Wright. PA and OH saw the beginning, and "The Speech That Healed the World" might have allayed some fears, but that was before Wright had to go out and prove himself that he was a hateful nutball from h*ll.

All bets are off with NC. I see the black vote being depressed and the white vote being energized by (1) Clinton's recent gains and (2) Obama's looking like a politician-and a bad one-instead of the Hope Pony to Freedom. Obama was only ever going to get X percent of the white vote, and some of that is being peeled off. It's not about race, it's about viability and connecting with the voters.

KUSA says NC will be within five points with either candidate on top.


I hate to say it (none / 0) (#16)
by Marvin42 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:59:17 PM EST

But I have a feeling you are correct. We'll know soon enough.


: Expectations (none / 0) (#23)
by lambert on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:09:43 PM EST

NC Obama by 15 (used to be 20!)
IN Obama by 5 (next door to his home state!)
Anything less than that is a win for Hillary.

Again, again, the Bradley effect (none / 0) (#22)
by Cream City on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:09:25 PM EST

isn't really what would apply. See pollster.com for an explanation of what it really is about, not what the pundits are misstating.


thanks, i just went over and looked at it. (5.00 / 2) (#43)
by kangeroo on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:50:23 PM EST

it's here if anyone wants to check it out. i agree with cream and also think that in the current primary environment we should be especially cautious about attributing anything to the "bradley effect" unless we're pretty sure that's what's happening. my own feelings on race relations have been rubbed painfully raw this campaign season.


: Thank you for doing so (none / 0) (#60)
by Cream City on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:38:23 AM EST

and for your reasoning. People who got C's in journalism classes -- and heaven knows what in math -- but have pretty faces keep misstating this, and we can be better than them. (It would be hard to be worse.:-)

If she does not pull an upset or at least come (none / 0) (#4)
by kenosharick on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:29:32 PM EST

very close- the media will portray the night as a huge Obama victory and the supers will keep drifting his way.

: Yes, the media will do anything to make it appear (5.00 / 1) (#52)
by SueBonnetSue on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:33:27 AM EST

A victory for Obama. It gets tiresome. I loved it when Chris Mathews couldn't find a way to spin Hillary's PA win, try as he might. He even had to say that her speech was good and that Obama 'forgot' to congratulate her in his speech. I have no doubt that it pained him to say so. Let's hope that he's in LOTS of pain on Tuesday night. :)

I think the situation is still fluid. (none / 0) (#5)
by Boston Boomer on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:31:53 PM EST

Wasn't that SUSA poll taken before the latest Rev. Wright contretemps? Furthermore, undecideds have been breaking for Hillary in other states. I think she could get closer than 7 points in NC. But even that would be good, especially if she wins Indiana comfortably.

OT (none / 0) (#7)
by Josey on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:42:08 PM EST

CBS News last night: an Obama rally in a NC auditorium was filled with
African Americans, but only white people were sitting behind Obama - for the TV audience.
I was shocked the reporter exposed it.

Makes ya wonder if the AA community is (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by athyrio on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:45:54 PM EST

starting to feel a tad used and under appreciated...I sure would if I were them...


I am feeling a bit used and (5.00 / 2) (#50)
by stefystef on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:07:14 AM EST

as an African American, I don't like it when people think we all think the same and have the same attitudes. We don't.

Hillary has many African Americans supporters in North Carolina and I think these polls supposedly showing Obama winning NC, but I think there is a big surprise awaiting on Tuesday.

I think the "magic" is gone from the Obama campaign.


: Welll............when 90% of Blacks vote the same (5.00 / 1) (#53)
by SueBonnetSue on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:36:01 AM EST

way, it's kinda hard not to generalize about them.
I sure hope that you are right and Blacks in NC have woken up to what Obama is really about because he sure isn't looking out for them, or anyone else, except himself.

: i sure as heck appreciate you. (5.00 / 1) (#57)
by kangeroo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:22:16 AM EST

i know it can't be a walk in the park to be aa and supporting hillary. thank you, stefystef; my heart's very grateful for your support, and i know i'm not the only one who feels this way.

wow (5.00 / 1) (#39)
by Makarov on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:45:05 PM EST

I thought they'd have learned their lesson from Pittsburgh. They had a rally there, I think where Michelle was speaking, where they pulled a young (asian I think) woman off the risers to change the racial backdrop. It didn't get wide media coverage.

Yeah, she was asian. Coverage by the CMU student newspaper:
http://www.thetartan.org/2008/4/7/news/obama


I've got 5 bucks for the under on SUSA poll (none / 0) (#11)
by white n az on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:47:37 PM EST

of course we can't really have betting on TalkLeft

;-)

I think 10 points (none / 0) (#12)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:48:20 PM EST

NC is Obama's PA.

Wildcard: Republicans listen to Rush and/or feel compelled to vote against the black guy--and do.

How about (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:58:22 PM EST

republican women see that Clinton is viable and cross over to back her? Why does it always have to be that she gets votes not because people want to vote for her, but because X, Y and Z? And, no, Andgarden, you are certainly not guilty of lockstepping to that particular beat, but many are. It's like all those folks who say Obama is the reason for record new voter registration and record turn-out. If that were true, then he would be debating McCain right now instead of treading water.

The fact is that some republican women are crossing over to vote for Clinton. For thirty-eight years, my grandmother identified herself as a republican. Then my grandfather left her and the first thing she said was, "phew, now I can admit that I've been voting democrat all these years."

There's a reason voting is done in privacy. And what we have found all along is that people lie to the pollsters. That's actually been the fun part to all of this--watching the pundits melt like peeps on a bonfire because their exit polling was so very, very wrong.


i'm a big proponent of the (5.00 / 1) (#47)
by kangeroo on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:13:36 PM EST

reverse hillary effect theory. lots of hillary supporters are closeted--not just because it's decidedly uncool in many circles, but also because announcing your support invites unwarranted grief. it's getting better now, but back in january (right before NH), i felt alienated for supporting her. i realized i wasn't alone when i got an e-mail from a guy thanking me for my pro-hillary blog and expressing regret at having to take his down because he was constantly being harassed and attacked for defending hillary.


We need a secret handshake (5.00 / 1) (#59)
by Nadai on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:31:58 AM EST

I'm not closeted, but I don't discuss politics with people unless I know they're interested, and most of the people I know aren't. And the couple of times I've ended up in a political discussion with Obama supporters haven't been pleasant. I can hold my own because I'm a fairly combative person, but I don't enjoy it and I don't need the extraneous stress, so I avoid it if possible.

I got a phone call a month or so ago from a NARAL volunteer wanting a donation (I've donated money to them before). I explained to the woman that I wasn't giving money to anyone but Hillary right now and to call back after the election. She just lit up - we must have talked for 45 minutes about Hillary's chances down here in NC and in the general. At the end of the call she thanked me for talking to her, saying that it was such a relief to talk to another Hillary supporter. So I think you're right - there's a lot more of us out there who are keeping it to ourselves.


: sign me up for that handshake. (none / 0) (#61)
by kangeroo on Mon May 05, 2008 at 02:04:45 AM EST

it is such a relief to talk to other hillary supporters. oftentimes i don't even realize, until that familiar wave of gratitude and relief hits, just how tensed up i was a second before. i don't know what i'd do without TL and other hillary-friendly blogs.

Disgusting (none / 0) (#54)
by SueBonnetSue on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:40:50 AM EST

That democrats would do that to other democrats. Or do it to anyone. It makes us look bad, like we're the party of thugs or something.

I don't bring up Hillary unless I'm with people who I know support her because so many Obama supporters are so nuts. I just don't want to hear their shallow, often insane and innane, arguments. They rarely know ANYTHING that the man has ever done or ANYTHING that he will do. It's like debating children, so why bother?


It's possible (none / 0) (#18)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:02:54 PM EST

We'll know in 48 hrs.


You mean independents? (none / 0) (#17)
by ineedalife on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:01:26 PM EST

I don't think Republicans can vote in the Dem primary but independents can. In NC the indies probably lean republican but that is the one thing that can pull this out for Clinton. A huge influx of independents choosing the Democrat ballot and voting for her. But with contested primaries up and down the ticket that may not happen. Aren't the Governor and US Senate primaries tomorrow too?


I believe NC now has (none / 0) (#19)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:04:52 PM EST

same day registration and that you can switch your party at the last minute. I could be wrong on whole or part about that, though.

There are contested local/statewide elections, yes, but a presidential election always eclipses the local stuff.


Same day registration (none / 0) (#48)
by wasabi on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:51:38 PM EST

is only valid during the early voting period which has now closed.


: Gocha, thanks. (none / 0) (#49)
by andgarden on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:03:45 AM EST

Zogby hoping to stand out (none / 0) (#21)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:08:04 PM EST

still predicting Obama win in Indiana - 44-42. Obama by 8 in NC.

Hedging though in IN, saying undecideds lean Clinton.

That (none / 0) (#24)
by Ga6thDem on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:12:42 PM EST

means that Hillary will win by 12 pts. He's probably got Obama's number right.

Of course, Zogby going against Clinton is usually good news right?


Both those numbers. . . (none / 0) (#25)
by LarryInNYC on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:13:08 PM EST

coming from Zogby, could well mean a Clinton victory.

Those NC polls (not just Zogby) are awfully tight.


A poll 2 days before the election (none / 0) (#26)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:15:21 PM EST

with so many undecideds is junk. I hate polls like that.

But anyway, it's Zogby.


Heh (none / 0) (#28)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:21:53 PM EST

Zogby is not a pollster. How many times do I have to tell you that. I am just watching him for entertainment value as he struggles to become relevant again.

In PA, he played Clinton by 10. It worked for him.

Now he is taking a flyer on Obama in Indiana.

I think he is making as mistake. The demographics. But he needs to be different somewhere and he figures Obama in Indiana is his best play.


Would it surprise you (4.00 / 0) (#29)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:26:09 PM EST

if Zogby didn't even really have a callcenter and pulled the numbers out of his rear end? It wouldn't me!


It would surprise me (none / 0) (#30)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:28:08 PM EST

Because it would come out.

But it would not surprise me if Zogby just made the raw numbers up.

but mostly I think he plays with his LV model to make it jigger to the result he wants.


But he could do it for so much cheaper (none / 0) (#31)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:31:07 PM EST

with a dart board!


OT (none / 0) (#32)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:32:39 PM EST

What do you think about the example of Tennessee? Why does it fall outside of the pattern of the south? White Democrats? Appalachia?


I dunno from TN (none / 0) (#33)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:33:33 PM EST

I should look at SUSA's TN performance.


I don't think they polled it (none / 0) (#35)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:37:19 PM EST

Then there is no point (none / 0) (#37)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:41:18 PM EST

I am a firm believer in SUSA adjusted.


: Well, SUSA sez Al Franken (none / 0) (#40)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:46:06 PM EST

lost us the MN Senate seat. He should have had a better accountant!

Doesn't Zogby do his polls on the internet? (none / 0) (#55)
by SueBonnetSue on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:42:46 AM EST

He's notoriously wrong.


Also, to put a point on it (none / 0) (#27)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:16:47 PM EST

why not consider TN? Similar demographics, but Hillary walked away with it.

Appalachian character? White Democrats? Phase of the moon?

TN Exit Polls Says (none / 0) (#34)
by Dan the Man on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:36:05 PM EST

even though 29% of the voters were A-A, they only went 77-22 for Obama. In Alabama, even though 51% of the voters were A-A, they only went 84-15 for Obama (this is the reason why he only won 2 more delegates in AL). Both of these states happened on Super Tuesday, and Obama couldn't get more of the A-A vote for him because of all the primaries/caucuses happening at the same time.

Ever since Super Tuesday, he has been going all out in getting the A-A vote in order to limit the effects of white voters voting for Clinton - especially in Southern/Appalachian states. I think this is the reason why the race has been so racially polarizing since then.


: Could be (none / 0) (#36)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:37:54 PM EST

: I really don't think (none / 0) (#46)
by IzikLA on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:10:59 PM EST

He has gone All Out getting the AA vote. If anything, he's taken them for granted, and that is one of the things I hate about this primary season. Hillary Clinton has repeatedly supported their community. She has fought, showed up, and listened to what they had to say. Obama has not. He sat in that church and beyond that I'm not sure exactly how he has connected to the AA community. If anything, he has pushed them away.

Should we expect any good polla tomorrow? n/t (none / 0) (#42)
by Lil on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:48:43 PM EST

70/30 white vote (none / 0) (#44)
by Makarov on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:50:28 PM EST

for Clinton is going to be tough. I think the key to keeping this close for her will be the AA vote. If she can get 20%, she could limit the victory to single digits or even get close enough to win by a hair.

Still, I don't think it will happen. Predicting AA vote 90-10, white vote 65-35, and Obama wins by 10% or a little more.

I hope I'm wrong.

: She needs at least 65 percent (none / 0) (#56)
by ChuckieTomato on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:06:31 AM EST

And even that may not be enough