Barack Obama is almost certainly going to be the nominee. As I wrote to our friend Markos today (yes, he is still a good friend of Talk Left), it is in Barack Obama's and the Democratic Party's interest to seat the delegations. I assume Democrats in all races, including the Presidential race, want to compete in Florida and Michigan. Seating their delegation contributes greatly to that.

That's why I think attitudes like that exhibited by Matt Yglesias are totally misguided. If Obama loses the nomination, it won't be because Florida and Michigan are seated. It will take a huge meltdown for that to happen. On the other hand, seating Florida and Michigan could very well contribute to Democratic victories in Florida and Michigan, including at the top of the ticket.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Comments now closed.

You'll be hearing this a lot in coming days. The true delegate number and the one Barack Obama must surpass is 2209, not 2025. Litigator Mom over at The Confluence explains, beginning with the correct calculation:

50% + 1 of all the delegates, pledged and SDs, alloted to the 50 states, Guam and Puerto Rico.

Not 48 states, but 50 states. She explains: [More...]

TwinMom at MyDD has an interesting diary up comparing Obama's win in Virginia to North Carolina:

Obama won Virginia by 28 points and North Carolina by 14. What's different, given the similar voter demographics?

Using exit poll data here and here from the NY Times, TwinMom shows the percentages of white men, white women, black men and black women voters were very similar but the results were not:

• In Virginia, Obama won 67% of White Men. In North Carolina only 40%

• In Virginia, Obama won 45% of White Women , in North Carolina only 33%.

• In Virginia, Obama won 93% of Black Men and 85% of Black Women. In North Carolina, he won 91% of Black Men and Black Women.

The conclusion: [More...]

I am watching Hardball and the total nonsense is amazing. They are discussing how the white working class issue disappeared. Specifically, Chris Matthews, with the once respected Chuck Todd nodding vigorously, said Pennsylvania was the past and North Carolina was the future on race relations. This is simply counterfactual. Let's review the data.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton won whites 18-29 (52-48), 30-44 (58-42), 45-59 (63-37), 60+ (68-32). In North Carolina, whites 18-29, just 8% of the vote, went for Obama 57-41. But whites 30-44 went for Clinton (52-45), 45-59 (64-33), 60+ (69-29).

Barack Obama is almost certain to be the nominee, and Tweety is ebulliant about his guy looking like the nominee. But let's stick to the facts please. On the demographics, nothing got better for Obama. The difference between North Carolina and Pennsylvania is there are a lot more African American voters in North Carolina. She never had a chance to win it. Ever.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

Comments now closed.

Update: Marc Ambinder's 7 reasons why Hillary should stay in the race.

Hillary Clinton picked up a superdelegate in North Carolina today.

U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler pledged his support to Sen. Hillary Clinton after she won in his Western North Carolina district.

Obama also picked up a North Carolina superdelegate today. At least two are staying uncommitted, U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge of Lillington and an attorney (Parker?)whom I heard on the news earlier.

Almost 300 of the 796 superdelegates remain uncommitted. Here's a list of some of the more prominent ones.

Hillary today said she's staying in until there is a nominee. Good for her.

Your turn. This is an Open Thread.

Comments over 200, thread now closed.

In the Left blogs today, it is considered a mortal sin to point out that Barack Obama has trouble connecting with white working class voters. It is a mortal sin to point out that in the South Carolina campaign, the Obama campaign fed the narrative that the Clinton campaign was race baiting. Indeed, the Left blogs themselves led the charge with this smear, notwithstanding the fact that it was utterly illogical. In South Carolina, the last thing the Clinton campaign would have wanted was African American voters rallying to Barack Obama.

In February, Obama was able to nimbly straddle appealing to African American voters while maintaining a broader appeal. Wisconsin and Virginia appeared to be watersheds, where Obama won both the white and African American voters (he has consistently lost Latino voters.) But from Ohio on, it became clear that Obama would not be able to sustain that. Jeremiah Wright was the biggest reason why. More . . .

If the Obama campaign believes, very reasonably, that he is virtually assured of the nomination, the time is now to agree to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations.

It is time for Obama and his supporters to realize that NOT seating Florida and Michigan hurts him in terms of unifying the Party and in terms of the general election in Florida especially.

The time is right Senator Obama, agree to the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments now closed.

William Earl Lynd was executed in Georgia last night.

Lynd's execution at 7:51 p.m. was the first since the court ruled April 16 that the three-drug protocol most commonly used in executions by states and the federal government did not constitute cruel and unusual punishment.

Last week, a former death row inmate was freed in North Carolina. The Death Penalty Information Center reports:

Around the country, the 129th person was recently freed from death row in North Carolina. Levon Jones was exonerated after his conviction was overturned because of inadequate representation. The state's star witness has also recanted her testimony implicating Jones. The District Attorney dismissed all charges against him on May 3. Jones is the sixth person to be freed from death row in the past 12 months, the eighth person from North Carolina, and the 3rd from North Carolina since December 2007. The last four inmates who have been freed from death row in the U.S. are black.

The New York Times reports questions of fairness remain.

I noticed a lot of drug warriors on tv yesterday talking about a bust in San Diego. I'm not sure why that's such big news. What should be news is this drug war outrage in Arkansas.

Some have learned a lesson:

There's clearly an effort not to appear to be forcing Clinton out of the race and Rep. James Clyburn -- formally uncommitted, but recently critical of the Clintons -- said on MSNBC this morning that it's "absolutely not" time for her to drop out.

Good for Clyburn.

By Big Tent Democrat

I didn't hear John McCain's speech on judges yesterday, but Andrew Cohen at the Washington Post's Bench Conference and Ann Althouse provide their views.

Would McCain stack the court with right wing ideologues? Of course he would. There's no better reason, other than the war in Iraq, to make sure he doesn't win in November.

Update: 11:12 pm Comments now closed.