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Why Did Obama Do Worse in N.C. Than Virginia?

TwinMom at MyDD has an interesting diary up comparing Obama's win in Virginia to North Carolina:

Obama won Virginia by 28 points and North Carolina by 14. What's different, given the similar voter demographics?

Using exit poll data here and here from the NY Times, TwinMom shows the percentages of white men, white women, black men and black women voters were very similar but the results were not:

  • In Virginia, Obama won 67% of White Men. In North Carolina only 40%
  • In Virginia, Obama won 45% of White Women , in North Carolina only 33%.
  • In Virginia, Obama won 93% of Black Men and 85% of Black Women. In North Carolina, he won 91% of Black Men and Black Women.

The conclusion: [More...]

Obama lost ground among all but black women:

White Men (-27)
White Women (-12)
Black Men (-2)
Black Women (+6)

What to take from it:

In fact, Obama's showing in NC last night is CONSIDERABLY weaker than his showing in neighboring VA 3 months ago. In my opinion, we should all be asking WHY and also wondering about what this decline in numbers means in terms of the GE?

NC and VA make an excellent, nearly ideal side-by-side comparison in terms of demographics. These 2 contests clearly show a significant increase in support for Sen Clinton and a marked decrease in support for Sen Obama.

The voting demographics:

White male: VA 28%, N.C. 27%
White female: Va 35%, N.C. 35%
Black Male: VA 13%, N.C. 13%
Black Female: VA 17%, N.C. 20%.

Comments over 200, now closed.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Is it complicated? (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by robrecht on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:34:28 PM EST
    Isn't it simply Obama's elitist remark about small town people clinging to guns & religion and all the hype about Rev. Wright?  And Obama's relative inexperience in extricating himself from these political liabilities?

    Elitist (2.33 / 3) (#149)
    by WorkinJoe on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:13:14 PM EST
    First off, Obama is not an elitist.  His "bitter" remarks were part of an adult conversation in explaining how the Republicans were able to siphon off votes from people in economic levels that would seem, on face value, to be better served by Democratic policies.  Obama simply stated that because Washington DC's economic promises are never delivered to workin' Joes, they often fall back on issues like gun control, or religious issues such as gay marriage or abortion to cast their vote.  

    What is refreshing about Obama is his willingness to speak to us as adults.  Listen closely to his speeches.  Quit taking the Republican approach of picking a single word or phrase and letting your blood pressure rise.  Actually try to understand what's being said.  He's a very straight forward guy and has a chance to be a great president.

    [ Parent ]

    On what basis (5.00 / 3) (#159)
    by alforhil on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:17:20 PM EST
    are you making the assumption that Obama will make a 'Great president'? I see nothing in his thin resume to support this fact, so we are expected to take him at his word..

    Now it WAS his words which sounded very condescending to a lot of ordinary folks and his arrogance that he thinks people who do not vote for him does not count.


    [ Parent ]

    This: (5.00 / 6) (#171)
    by Nadai on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:20:49 PM EST
    His "bitter" remarks were part of an adult conversation in explaining how the Republicans were able to siphon off votes from people in economic levels that would seem, on face value, to be better served by Democratic policies.

    is an out and out lie.  He was "explaining" why he wasn't doing better against Clinton in Pennsylvania.  It had nothing to do with the Republicans.

    [ Parent ]

    I thought the comments (5.00 / 10) (#178)
    by Salo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:22:22 PM EST
    were a gross misread of Frank's Kansas thesis.

    Frank was attacking Dems for abandoning populist rhetoric and economic policy.

    The Dems offered a slick internationalist cosmopolitan multiculturalism, freetrade liberalism and the cruelty of the freemarket. Coupled with affirmative action, prochoice, PC language restrictions,  these are policies designed to appeal to fairly well heeled upper middle class voters.  Not factory workers or manual labourers.

    Frank was saying that the working class were abandoned by self-rightcheous liberals in favour of cultural battles.

    Guess what?

    liberals have done it again. And Obama embodies that liberal habit.

    [ Parent ]

    I'll agree with the "gross misread" (5.00 / 1) (#227)
    by debrazza on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:00:50 PM EST
    I think Frank himself wrote the same thing in an editorial in the Wall Street Journal.

    [ Parent ]
    Refreshing? (5.00 / 2) (#221)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:58:06 PM EST
    "What is refreshing about Obama is his willingness to speak to us as adults."

    You sound as though Barack Obama is the bravest, kindest, warmest, most wonderful human being you've ever known in your life.

    [ Parent ]

    Oh, I just love (5.00 / 1) (#228)
    by lilburro on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:01:30 PM EST
    being spoken to as an adult.  Heaven knows Hillary doesn't speak to me as an adult.  Why, she expects me to keep track of funds I've never heard of, of the structure of her plans!  She wants to expand my vocabulary to include words like "mandate"!  

    Having an adult conversation means including the people you're talking about.  Which Obama didn't exactly do when badmouthing the working class in front of SF royalty.  

    [ Parent ]

    Is there something wrong with SF? (none / 0) (#232)
    by debrazza on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:05:41 PM EST
    I think if we want to rid the old "San Francisco Liberal" canard, we should not believe that ourselves.  As somone who lived in the Bay Area for many years, I will tell you that I don't think there is much at all "liberal" about San Francisco.  Unless you think a gross disregard for a massive homeless population while simultaneously being the home to some of the richest people on the planet "liberal".  There is nothing "liberal" about the inequities of wealth in that city.

    [ Parent ]
    Hmm, one sec. (5.00 / 2) (#243)
    by lilburro on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:23:21 PM EST
    Did I write the word "liberal" anywhere in my comment above?  No, I did not.  SF I'm sure has problems that belie its pop culture image, but there's no changing the fact that Obama said his bitter comments in front of a **wealthy** (from your POV, unrepresentative) audience, in San Francisco.  What you're saying, IMO, underlines the problem in Obama's comments - SF isn't all wealthy+liberal people, though that is who Obama stood in front of when characterizing the small town PA voters (in other words, when he chose to represent them to the SF fundraisers).  We don't know the real SF.  Well, Obama doesn't know "the real" PA.  And perhaps, we don't know the real Obama.  But it's hard to trust the gross generalizations of a Pres. candidate hobnobbing with his rich fundraisers in SF.

    Obama may've gained a little cred in opposing the gas tax holiday.  But he's demonstrated at best a great tone-deafness towards the enduring class issues of our society and the language we use to describe them (ex. unions = special interest groups).  If the Dem party is to stay on the right side of socio-economic issues, it needs to maintain a respect for the hardships of our workers past, present, and future.  Presenting these people as disposable doesn't cut it for me.  Search through the exit polls; across the country there are plenty of white working class voters plugged into the Dem Party, apparently not yet clinging.  We should be able to keep these people in the GE.  

    SF still has a certain cachet, as does say, Seattle.

    [ Parent ]

    This seems a little bit silly. (5.00 / 2) (#242)
    by wurman on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:22:03 PM EST
    Sen. Obama was wrong & does not know what he's talking about.

    Economic policies in D.C., & the fact that nothing trickles down to working stiffs, has nothing to do with a person's positions on god, guns, gays & abortion.

    For the people who want to overturn Roe v. Wade, a candidates view & votes will be the first & singular over-riding factor in voting.  This issue crosses all economic lines & often works in tandem with the god thing.

    People who perceive themselves as religious fundamentalists make that their most important factor in assessing a candidate; it is not something they cling to after something else happens to them.

    The anti-gay thing & the same-sex marriage gambit are tiresomely worn out: it is a basic, front-of-the-line position for the people who fear & loathe homosexuals; it is not a by-the-way issue.

    Anyone, I mean anyone, and especially a political candidate, who thinks that the 2nd amendment is some sort of fallback position of smalltown folk who feel left out is just plain, flat-out too silly to be in politics.  For the voters who are passionate about firearms, it is their foremost issue.

    Finally, many of these factors tend to fall together for people.  As most observors KNOW, god & guns & gays are basic tenets of a very huge group of voters.  Anti-abortion beliefs thread through those groups too.

    The religious conservatives & social conservatives who hold those views do not do so because some factories got closed & the people can't find new, well paid jobs.  

    What an utterly banal, ridiculous comment that was by Sen. Obama.  He has no concept of who those people are & why they won't vote for him.  And he grew up in Kansas--go figure.

    [ Parent ]

    Elitism (4.00 / 4) (#158)
    by AnninCA on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:16:45 PM EST
    is very different from adult conversations.  Mature adults, in fact, don't discuss people as though they are a "category."  Mature adults also recognize that they must apply the same principles to themselves as to others.  For example, if I am spiritually inclined, I would never suggest that someone else's beliefs are motivated out of some "lower" motive, as he did.

    I very much disagree that he talked to the group as adults.  He and the wine-sippers were clucking over those slobs in PA who don't know any better.

    We all got the message.

    [ Parent ]

    You contradict yourself... (none / 0) (#209)
    by sander60tx on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:41:06 PM EST
    You say that "mature adults" don't speak of others as if they are a category, then you go on to call a certain group of people "wine-sippers."  Of course, you never said you were a "mature adult!"  Only that Obama wasn't.  I think that misses the point, though  The whole post is talking about categories of people and how Obama support among those groups has varied over time.   I wonder how much of that comes down to "likeability."  I wonder if those of us who identify with a particular candidate have an easier time excusing their flawed behavior (or not even recognizing it at all).  It's much easier for me to excuse Clinton than Obama, because I view him as a hypocrit and but I never felt that she portrayed herself as anything other than who she is, baggage and all.  

    [ Parent ]
    Bingo! (none / 0) (#216)
    by AnninCA on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:49:52 PM EST
    I did, indeed, not claim that mantle.  :)

    [ Parent ]
    The longer people (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by pie on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:36:03 PM EST
    have to get to know them, the worse he looks.

    He does not wear well. n/t (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by DJ on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:57:45 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I agree n/t (none / 0) (#229)
    by stefystef on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:04:01 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    The worse he looks? (1.00 / 1) (#237)
    by joharmon86 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:15:56 PM EST
    Illinois knows him very well and Obama destroyed Hillary in Illinois despite the fact that Hillary is FROM ILLINOIS. It is her HOME STATE. Obama won white women in Illinois and seniors because they know him.

    [ Parent ]
    NC voters LIKED the gas tax holiday (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by oculus on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:37:37 PM EST
    idea (says she, after paying $64 to fill up her 4-cylinder car).

    That is a problem (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by Leisa on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:38:09 PM EST
    when a candidate is fresh...  Voters know more about him now than they did three months ago.  I think it could get worse for him, as it appears that the media really have not covered the problems with his candidacy (and I am not talking about Wright).  Even now it does not seem that the media is doing it's job as ignore issues that are very important in a democracy.

    And That Is How We Ended Up With gwb As (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:42:28 PM EST
    president.  

    [ Parent ]
    all things being equal (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Turkana on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:38:19 PM EST
    the story of last night would have been clinton doing better than has been expected in both states. a month ago, obama would have won north carolina by 25-30, and indiana by 8-10. but all things are not equal, and clinton simply couldn't afford another bad post-election news cycle.

    Sooooo infuriating. (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by oculus on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:39:33 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Until you realize that "one month ago" (none / 0) (#19)
    by Addison on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:44:52 PM EST
    is totally arbitrary. You might just as well set the timeframe to six months ago, and note that compared to that Hillary underperformed. The timeframe is arbitrary and pre-selected to show a specific result.

    What matters is not that selective, rhetorical use of timeframes, but yesterday, and the consequences of yesterday.

    [ Parent ]

    Hope you won't be offended if I (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:46:42 PM EST
    don't agree w/you.

    [ Parent ]
    Innocent reason? (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Salo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:42:06 PM EST
    She campaigned there.  She also got excellent endorsments. Obama's appeal and newness wearing off in general. She got a bump out of Pennsylvannia.

    Other Reasons:

    Wright, Ayers, Bittercling, disconnected attitute about energy prices.

    Also the media are starting to attack him and various GOP moles like IWF's Michelle Bernard are starting to see their plans reach fruition.

    to know him is to love him less!

    For the first time in the Rasmussen poll (none / 0) (#18)
    by maritza on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:44:49 PM EST
    Obama has higher favorabilities than McCain and Hillary.  The last time this has happened according to Rasmussen was March 10th.

    [ Parent ]
    Favorables? (none / 0) (#26)
    by OrangeFur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:46:34 PM EST
    Hasn't he always had higher favorables than Hillary?

    [ Parent ]
    Yes...Her Unfavorables Dogged Her (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:53:12 PM EST
    constantly.  Being smarter, more experienced, and a problem solver are a liability now in our bizarro world.

    [ Parent ]
    Because of his negative campaign tactics, (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:55:53 PM EST
    yes. His campaign's non-stop bellowing for tax returns, earmarks, library donations, etc. was intended to send the message the Clinton's were hiding something illegal, underhanded, or tainted with unsavory relationships. It worked on two levels: they established a cloud of untrustworthy over the Clinton camp, and they got their supporters to say, "so, what about Hsu" every time the topic of Rezko, Ayres, etc. comes up.

     

    [ Parent ]

    because of his negatives (5.00 / 1) (#153)
    by delacarpa on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:14:22 PM EST
    I don't think that Clinton knew Hsu" for 20 years and that is the difference

    [ Parent ]
    Yes but his favorabilities (1.00 / 1) (#68)
    by maritza on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:56:49 PM EST
    are now higher than McCain's according to Rasmussen.  This is the first time this has happened since March 10th according to Rasmussen.

    [ Parent ]
    What matters to me is how I feel about him. nt (5.00 / 1) (#112)
    by Maria Garcia on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:05:46 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    A quick glance through the exit poll data (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by OrangeFur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:43:14 PM EST
    doesn't indicate too many other determining factors besides race.

    Obama simply lost massive support among white voter.

    Virginia does have more college graduates and more people making over $50,000, but the margins between education and income groups aren't close to those between racial groups.

    It appears the losses were more concentrated among those making more than $50,000, but I don't know how to compare that, given the different costs of living.

    What a depressing election. Has the Democratic Party ever split in such an obvious demographic way before in a presidential primary?

    a factor besides race . . . (5.00 / 3) (#30)
    by nycstray on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:47:52 PM EST
    issues vs whining.

    Obama spent a lot of time defending against Wright and whining that Hillary was being a big ol' meanie and pandering politician. She talked issues, so that may have swayed some 'practical' voters to her.

    [ Parent ]

    I hear it certainly played a role (5.00 / 1) (#161)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:18:47 PM EST
    in the Triangle where people want to be able to say what they learned was more than just a series of words strung together with way too many uh's, and um's.

    Starting a sentence with "well, look" is really condescending. I never hear another word after he starts that way (which is frequent)...the rest of the sentence goes something like "blah, blah, blah, blah".

    [ Parent ]

    Obama WILL win the white vote in Oregon for sure (none / 0) (#25)
    by maritza on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:46:28 PM EST
    over Hillary.

    [ Parent ]
    And he won't (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by AnninCA on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:48:03 PM EST
    in Kentucky.

    [ Parent ]
    But (5.00 / 4) (#41)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:51:19 PM EST
    didn't you know?  OR is higher on the Ladder of Enlightenment than KY so it doesn't matter.

    [ Parent ]
    See? (5.00 / 1) (#79)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:59:09 PM EST
    Just look at the comment below mine.  Someone posted the same thing but actually means it.

    I just went to Wikipedia to check on OR demographics and learned that they had a law on the books until 1925 banning AAs from living there.

    [ Parent ]

    Funny :) (none / 0) (#168)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:20:36 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    What's the point? (5.00 / 2) (#39)
    by OrangeFur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:49:39 PM EST
    He also won the white vote in Raleigh/Durham. Nobody is saying he can't win among some groups of white people. The question is why he did much worse in NC than in VA?

    Maybe, as Steve M says, the two states are just different, just as Oregon is different than California. Or maybe something has happened in the last few months to cause it.

    [ Parent ]

    funny (1.00 / 2) (#113)
    by moe21885 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:05:51 PM EST
    I can just hear you crossing your fingers and whispering "pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease" as you typed that last sentence.


    [ Parent ]
    That's not really necessary... (5.00 / 1) (#182)
    by OrangeFur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:23:58 PM EST
    ... is it?

    [ Parent ]
    What about in FL, MI, OH, PA, against McCain? (none / 0) (#36)
    by nycstray on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:48:51 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    It means nothing to me (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Steve M on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:43:49 PM EST
    North Carolina is more like a cross between Virginia and Tennessee.  Different kind of state.  There's lots of diversity among white voters.

    The longer Obama campaigns (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:46:10 PM EST
    the more obvious it is that he hasn't said anything at all about what he is going to do to make life more comfortable for the middle and lower income people in this country. The Clinton's both talk non-stop on the importance of addressing issues that are important to those demographics.

    At some point his supporters are going to have to explain what it is about his policies that keep them wanting to cast their vote for him. I can't think of anything he has said that makes me believe his motivation is anything more than a self-serving need.

    I had the same impression last night (none / 0) (#34)
    by oculus on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:48:18 PM EST
    listening to him say we must all come together now.

    [ Parent ]
    I talked to a young woman outside (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by BernieO on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:08:55 PM EST
    of a polling place in Charlotte yesterday. She said she had decided to vote for Hillary after going to both Barack and Hillary speak at events. She heard Barack first and felt he did not really say what he planned to do, but Hillary offered a lot of proposals. This woman teaches kindergarten in a very low income area was really impressed by Hillary's proposal for pre-K ed and by her opposition to No Child Left Behind.

    [ Parent ]
    That young teacher's story is telling (none / 0) (#235)
    by stefystef on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:11:38 PM EST
    and not uncommon from people who honestly and objectively look at what Obama is saying (or not saying) instead of his fancy speeches.  

    This is very telling for the future of the Democratic Party.

    [ Parent ]

    Don't worry---the good stuff will trickle (none / 0) (#49)
    by MarkL on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:53:34 PM EST
    down later.

    [ Parent ]
    Like Reaganomics? n/t (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by misspeach2008 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:02:34 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    How Reaganesque! (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by Fabian on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:03:55 PM EST
    You all know how Obama admired Reagan's ability to bring people together.  Like a flock of gullible sheep - IMO.

    [ Parent ]
    Remember Reagan (none / 0) (#141)
    by BernieO on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:11:23 PM EST
    rhapsodizing about the "magic of the markets"? The guy explicitly expressed that he was a magical thinker and Americans went for it. Bet those people who lost money in the S&L, dot-com, etc. don't think the market is so magical now.

    [ Parent ]
    They intend to use (none / 0) (#175)
    by cawaltz on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:21:42 PM EST
    the Supreme Court boogey man and McCain to attempt to scare people. Welcome to the Democraic Party, he same as the Republican prty but without the bullocks of them.

    [ Parent ]
    One other factor (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by Salo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:48:35 PM EST
    Chaos version 1.0 was designed to Stop the Hillary Express! It worked. Chaos version 1.0 was decisive in the Chesapeake primary.   (does Rush enjoy high listenership stats in Virginia and Maryland?)

    Chaos 2.0 looks to be a damp squib in comparison. Intended to drag out the Dem race a little bit longer to cover McCain from scrutiny.  Also a last chance to torture a Clinton and give kerry talking points.  Is he having some revenge on Clinton for the muffed Iraq joke he told in 2006?

    the lopsided win of white males in Virginia looks like the clincher for Obama's selection.

    I predict (none / 0) (#179)
    by cawaltz on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:22:30 PM EST
    he'l lose them in the General.

    [ Parent ]
    I thought there would be several (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by MarkL on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:51:24 PM EST
    SD's announcing for Obama today.
    What.. they only announce when it looks like he's going to lose a primary?!
    Hmmm.

    No, they announce (5.00 / 2) (#180)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:22:38 PM EST
    when they think they will get the most national attention for their own names. It has nothing to do with Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Who said that? (1.00 / 1) (#57)
    by maritza on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:54:50 PM EST
    This process continues to go on.  Obama will probably get 3-5 superdelegates a day over the next month.

    [ Parent ]
    There were several. (none / 0) (#67)
    by Addison on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:56:28 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Again, he'll lose (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by AnninCA on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:53:20 PM EST
    big in Kentucky, which has a small AA community.  Right next to Illinois.

    So what is the reason?

    I'm sure it's that Wright brought real issues into play that will not work with moderate and conservatives.

    The reason is (1.50 / 2) (#98)
    by independent voter on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:02:19 PM EST
    when you are struggling in life, low wages, low education, limited prospects, it is not uncommon to look for a group of people that you can feel superior to. It is very sad, but I have seen it over and over, lower income, less educated whites are more likely to buy into stereotypes about minorities, and look down on them.
    I know this is in some part a generalization, and I'm sure some of you will want to point out all the people you personally know that do not fit this mold....but as a whole, it is reality in America in 2008. Maybe President Obama will be able to change some minds during his term in office. I sincerely hope so.

    [ Parent ]
    That's elitist (5.00 / 2) (#131)
    by AnninCA on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:09:05 PM EST
    BS talk for calling an entire state racist.  LOL*

    What's very sad is if you honestly believe this.

    [ Parent ]

    All the more reason (5.00 / 1) (#134)
    by pie on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:09:21 PM EST
    that we need Hillary as president.

    [ Parent ]
    Well (5.00 / 1) (#154)
    by Steve M on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:14:48 PM EST
    I have found that well-off, educated, successful white people tend to be more polite about what they say on the issue of race.  Other than that, I'm not prepared to generalize.

    [ Parent ]
    And super succesful ... (5.00 / 1) (#199)
    by Salo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:32:12 PM EST
    ...educated rich men like Kerry and Daschle have delusions that a man who's black can stop Muslims from being upset at America...and thus stop them from sending fanatics to blow up American troops stationed in the Middle East.

    [ Parent ]
    rubbing it in (5.00 / 3) (#89)
    by coolit on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:00:50 PM EST
    and celebrating at another's misfortune is typical of Obama's supporters.  

    I feel so attacked by his supporters that I am really starting to agree that he is creating a new kind of politics:  

    It is the kind of politics that is sleek, stylish, and cool without any substance.

    It is the kind of politics that convinces the media that it is hopeful and refreshing (in sound bites) while doing the opposite).

    It is the kind of politics that calls someone racist  who it knows is not racist.

    It is the kind of politics who says someone is trying to "steal the election" when they are just competing hard.

    I don't want this kind of politician as my president.

    Period.

    American Idol (5.00 / 1) (#163)
    by AnninCA on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:19:20 PM EST
    presidents with no substance have one big advantage.  They really don't do a lot.

    I say, focus on the down-ticket.  Let's take back the party, but let's do it inside out.

    In short, let him be a figurehead.

    In the meantime, I've caught the politics bug.  There are tons of positions in Congress out there, and it will be interesting to see if we can replace some of these power-grabber types with some really solid people.

    I know they are out there, just waiting for a break.

    [ Parent ]

    Do you want the (none / 0) (#115)
    by independent voter on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:06:24 PM EST
    politics that says it is OK to stay in Iraq 100 years?
    Do you want the politics that wants to invade Iran?
    Do you want the politics that extends the Bush tax cuts and expanmds them?

    Mourning is fine, and expected. Keeping a grip on reality...priceless

    [ Parent ]

    Another (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by kmblue on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:07:25 PM EST
    one.

    Where are they coming from?
    Guys, if you are so sure of Obama,
    for God's sake go to the beach or something.

    [ Parent ]

    That's the problem. (5.00 / 2) (#144)
    by coolit on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:11:43 PM EST
    Obama and his supporters are so mean and disingenuous that I am starting to doubt absolutely everything he says.  Left is right, up is down, clinton is a racist, obama doesn't play the 'old kind of politics'.  What can we believe?  

    Yeah, I wish I wanted to vote for him.  I wish I trusted him.  It's not my fault that he has completely alienated me.  Why do you fault me for the things he has done?

    [ Parent ]

    McCain will be lucky... (none / 0) (#145)
    by Salo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:11:45 PM EST
    ...to see the end of his 70s.

    100 years...could just as easily apply to Obama or Clinton. Noone is plannning to evacuate the middle East last time I checked.

    [ Parent ]

    Nope (none / 0) (#183)
    by cawaltz on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:24:02 PM EST
    That doesn't mean I'm voting for Barack though.

    [ Parent ]
    What's the explanation going to be... (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by OrangeFur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:00:56 PM EST
    ... when McCain carries North Dakota, Idaho, and Utah and Obama carries Vermont, Maine, and Connecticut?

    There are so many possible explanations that you can't just say that racism is the cause.

    Racism is the nuclear accusation. You have to be have rock solid evidence before deploying it. Just because one state likes Obama more than another doesn't mean the folks in the second state are racist.

    Racism as a reason for Obama's failures (1.00 / 1) (#239)
    by joharmon86 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:18:00 PM EST
    Racism is not something people wear on there sleeves in the overwhelming majority of cases, so obviously there isn't going to be "evidence," though the exit polls show that those that think race is an issue overwhelmingly support Hillary. That is telling.

    [ Parent ]
    Well, then, explain why the same fine folk (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by Cream City on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:03:28 PM EST
    here in my state of Wisconsin who so fell in love with Obama turned around and only weeks later ran off the state Supreme Court the first AA justice ever here?  And with a disgraceful campaign that Willie Hortoned him and worse.

    You either still really don't know what happened in Wisconsin in the primary (and I have relayed the media reports and voting data and more here many times so won't use up bandwidth again) or opt to ignore it.  Bottom line, you would be wise to not use Wisconsin as evidence for your argument, because to do so suggests ignorance, untruthfulness, or simply naivete.

    Oh, and Obama now is losing in Wisconsin (5.00 / 4) (#110)
    by Cream City on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:05:29 PM EST
    to McCain by four points, per a new Rasmussen poll.

    As Wisconsin was the closest state in 2004, with less than half a point margin for Kerry, Obama would turn Wisconsin from blue to red.  And wouldn't that be just a great thing for the Democrats downticket here?  (Uh, no.)

    This is important (5.00 / 1) (#169)
    by chancellor on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:20:37 PM EST
    Kerry and Edwards had to work their butts off to nail WI. Madison is very blue and Milwaukee is reasonably blue, but the rest of the state only has blue pockets. Remember, right next door to Milwaukee is Jim Sensenbrenner's district, and he's a total Repub nutcase. I know everyone thinks that because Russ Feingold proclaims himself a progressive that he is a liberal voter. Not true. Russ votes to represent his state, meaning he scores about a 77% versus 96% for Hillary on progressive issues. WI is a purple state.

    [ Parent ]
    Russ can be such a conman. (5.00 / 1) (#206)
    by Salo on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:37:05 PM EST
    Massively inflated reputation.

    [ Parent ]
    I lived in Madison during Reagan v Mondale (5.00 / 1) (#188)
    by ineedalife on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:26:26 PM EST
    I did phone work for Mondale and it was amazing the number of split-ticket voters. Reagan at the top and the liberal Democrat Kastenmeier for Congress. I have a feeling that is Obama's fate as well.

    [ Parent ]
    Cheesehead Input (none / 0) (#166)
    by WorkinJoe on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:19:43 PM EST
    As a Cheesehead, I don't have any concerns about Obama carrying Wisconsin.  When McCain has to start speaking side-by-side with Obama, people will see the differences in policy.  

    [ Parent ]
    Except (5.00 / 4) (#187)
    by misspeach2008 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:25:57 PM EST
    Obama doesn't talk policy.  He talks biography.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh. (none / 0) (#213)
    by pie on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:45:03 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Policy? (none / 0) (#189)
    by cawaltz on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:27:28 PM EST
    Baaahaaahaaahaaaa, you mean the stuff that Obama supoorters have decried as not important throughout the primary? Watching this GE would actually be fun iof it weren't for the fact that I'm predicting the next four years ar going to be some of the worst fo average AmericansWhether it be Obama or McCain because one thins bad policy is good and theother thinks that policy isn't important.)

    [ Parent ]
    Silly Rabbit (5.00 / 2) (#223)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:58:51 PM EST
    A president's job is to provide inspiration not enact policies.

    [ Parent ]
    To all those who called HRC's supporters racists (5.00 / 1) (#167)
    by feet on earth on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:20:10 PM EST
    show same guts and go tell this group of Hillary supports that they are Racists.
    They are women, they are black and they are angry big time at people like you, the party and Barok Hope Obama (BHO).

    I go hung out there for a good dose of disinfectant and a lough  when people like you infect me.

    http://sugarnspice.typepad.com/

    How about agreeing (5.00 / 1) (#190)
    by Molly Pitcher on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:27:29 PM EST
    to ignore the posters who are here just to aggravate?  I kept trying to answer one of them--turned out that comment was deleted before I could get my (then) irrelevant answer in.  I'd like to read some enlightening stuff, not rants--how ever disguised.

    Ignoring them... (none / 0) (#200)
    by OrangeFur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:32:26 PM EST
    ... is a good idea.

    Partly because if you respond, you look kind of silly after Jeralyn and BTD delete the original comment. :)

    [ Parent ]

    Do you know what's really ironic? (5.00 / 1) (#192)
    by coolit on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:28:18 PM EST
    I actually would have voted for Barack before Clinton "drew the election out."  I would have just numbly pushed his button in the booth.

    Now, we have had a real chance to see something about both of them.  We have learned what of person they each are and what kind of campaign they would run.  We don't have idealistic books, we have concrete evidence of the type of things they are willing to do to win.

    Only now have I actually reconsidered that automatic D vote.

    I'm sorry but I wouldn't have (none / 0) (#246)
    by BostonIndependent on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:48:54 PM EST
    I always saw right thru him. My wife is in love w/ him (she spends far too much time w/ the Kossacks -- LOL), but what the heck.. as I tell her, we get to cancel each other out this election.


    [ Parent ]
    Very interesting look at the map (5.00 / 1) (#204)
    by stefystef on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:36:05 PM EST
    This is from the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

    http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/4000/en/md.html?cid=100

    Obama won the state, but Hillary won most of the counties especially in the West and costal.  

    Can Obama bring over the traditional democrats when Brazille says the "old" coalition isn't needed anymore?  That's the question of electability.  Are those who changed parties going to stay Dem or just did it for the primaries?

    I highly doubt it.

    Clinton didn't have a strategy past Feb 5? (5.00 / 1) (#248)
    by Prabhata on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:58:45 PM EST
    If you look at the news around Feb 5, HRC was predicting that nothing would be final until June.  The way I see it.  First Clinton, after being accused of racism in SC did not know how to go about campaigning in states with high AA voters.  In SC Bill Clinton took the fight to the AA voters, and the racial bating from the Obama campaign went into full swing accusing him that he had said the Obama campaign was a fairy tale.  The other accusation, which Obama called "unfortunate" was that HRC had dissed MLK.  And there were other instances.  HRC's camp didn't get her footing until TX. In TX and after TX the Clinton camp decided to contest just with the White voters. That lead to a decrease in the White votes going to Obama. Second, HRC's base is very different from Obama's.  Her base, working people who cannot take off work or are too tired, or don't care enough, are not likely to go to caucuses.  A perfect example was Washington.   She campaign vigorously in that state, but often she would ask people in the audience if they were going to caucus for her, she mostly got: "I have to work".  Unless we understand the dynamics that are in place for the Democratic nomination, we cannot understand why the Democratic Party has lost so many elections.  The cards are stacked against candidates that don't do well in caucuses.  IA may be a great state to do retail campaigning, but the caucus system will select those who organize and get supporters that caucus. By the time the working class has an opportunity to vote, the nominee has been chosen.  The candidates representing the Democratic Party, like Dukakis, and Kerry are flawed. Obama is more flawed than HRC, but the best candidate, Edwards, never had a chance. For the first time I understand why others don't participate in a process that doesn't give a voice, and if HRC is not the nominee, I will join those who don't participate.

    huh? (3.00 / 2) (#93)
    by moe21885 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:01:35 PM EST
    Jeralyn, are you trying to suggest that Obama has a "white problem"? This is ridiculous. North Carolina might superficially resemble Virginia in a demographic sense, but the two states are incredibly different from income and class perspectives. NC has one bastion of creative-class liberalism (the Research Triangle) while Virginia has, by my count, at least three (Northern Virginia, with 3 million people and the most educated county in the country, the city of Richmond, and Charlottesville).

    It's clear that Obama does not have a problem with white people, as you recklessly and disingenuously assert. He won Colorado, Iowa, Wyoming, and Connecticut, not exactly the most diverse states in the Union. He does, however, have an Appalachia problem. County-by-county results from NC affirm this. Luckily for the Democratic party, we've not won Appalachia in a Presidential contest in decades, and it doesn't factor into any Democrat's path to the White House.

    The encouraging thing, though, is that demographic shifts in Virginia and North Carolina are taking power away from the Appalachian regions of those states, which is why they are in play in the fall.

    Things change. That is the point. (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by MarkL on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:05:26 PM EST
    Ignore the movement in demographics at your peril.

    [ Parent ]
    what movement? (none / 0) (#136)
    by moe21885 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:10:09 PM EST
    I'm saying that the same bloc of voters who won't support him in WVA and Kentucky, and who didn't support him in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Tennessee, also didn't support him in North Carolina.

    A white Dem primary voter in NC is more likely to fit the "Appalachian" profile than is a white Dem primary voter in Virginia, which explains the differential in the exit polling. There has been NO movement.

    [ Parent ]

    Appalacian regions? (5.00 / 2) (#130)
    by trillian on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:09:02 PM EST
    He didn't win the white vote in California either.

    Has it ever occurred to you that he's not getting their votes because he is not addressing their problems....like the economy for instance?

    [ Parent ]

    yawn (3.00 / 2) (#162)
    by moe21885 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:18:55 PM EST
    This meme of Obama as "substanceless" is getting played out, guys. He's addressed the economy. I'm not sure how he's addressed it any less substantively than Hillary has.

    Hillary had two big strengths going into this race: 1) "Machine" Democratic states, like MA, CA, NY, and pretty much every traditional blue state besides IL, where Obama had support and 2) "Reagan" Democrats in Appalachia. It is not particularly surprising when she wins states in either of these categories, just as it is not particularly surprising when Obama blows her out in areas where AA's dominate the primary vote.

    Here's the difference between the two: "Machine" Dem states will vote for the nominee in the fall. Bank on it. Powerful local parties in the states I mentioned will rally behind Obama just like the one in IL would have rallied around Clinton.

    Now, I'm willing to concede that Obama, for whatever reason, doesn't connect with Appalachian Democrats. I don't see this as a problem, however, as most of the states they are in are trending blue anyway.

    We all just need to stop the hand-wringing.

    [ Parent ]

    Actually (3.00 / 2) (#217)
    by cawaltz on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:51:39 PM EST
    You might want to wake up and pay attention. There are ALOT of people here that have been lifelon Democrats that WILL NOT be voting for Obama. His slash and burn, scorched Earth primary strategy will likely cost him the GE. I sure hope that the number of nw Democrats registered will more tham make up for the ones he has disenfranchised in order to secure his win. Creative class indeed, more like the idiot class. The Democratic pary has managed to screw up an election cycle that should have been a sure thing.

    [ Parent ]
    thanks for your reasoned, measured response (none / 0) (#224)
    by moe21885 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:59:05 PM EST
    nt

    [ Parent ]
    Just because you don't like (none / 0) (#238)
    by cawaltz on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:17:52 PM EST
    the reality doesn't mean it isn't reasoned or measured. The least popular GOP President will be leaving office. We managed to pull off 6 seats in 2006 because so many people fell out of love with the GOP. Their party was fractured and damaged. Meanwhile our presumptive nominee LOSES to McCain electorally. Oh and according to Donna, working class and Latin folks are so 2006.  

    [ Parent ]
    Oh yes... (none / 0) (#197)
    by trillian on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:31:13 PM EST
    Machine Dems, like Kerry, Kennedy, Daschle....

    As for his "addressing" the economy, he basically told lunch bucket Dems to suck it up because $30 savings in gas wasn't worth it.

    [ Parent ]

    wow (none / 0) (#207)
    by moe21885 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:37:39 PM EST
    I didn't realize that defenders of the Great Gas Tax Pander of 2008 still existed. I won't even get into that. Be secure in the knowledge that even if the disastrous idea made it through Congress, there would be no actual decrease in gas prices. Inelasticity of supply: look it up.

    And since Hillary won the state that Kerry and Kennedy represent, this should give you a sense as to how much the endorsement of Senators means. In those states, it's all about on-the-ground pols at the mayoral level and below. Hillary had a clear majority of those endorsements in MA at primary time, which is why she won.

    [ Parent ]

    Rasmussen (none / 0) (#225)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:00:30 PM EST
    did a poll on this and it is popular with only 42% against it. Once again Obama has no clue on what works for the working class.

    [ Parent ]
    Goodness (5.00 / 2) (#132)
    by Steve M on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:09:09 PM EST
    Has it really been "decades" since the 1990s?  How time flies.

    [ Parent ]
    Well, Clinton... (5.00 / 1) (#195)
    by OrangeFur on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:29:32 PM EST
    ... last won Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee in 1996. So that was 1.2 decades ago.

    Does that count as decades?

    [ Parent ]

    lose the insults and name calling (none / 0) (#184)
    by Jeralyn on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:25:03 PM EST
    or you will be gone from here. I posted another writer's analysis. Feel free to disagree with the writer's conclusions, methodology, or premise. Do not call me names and make false accusations.

    One and only warning to you.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm sorry, but (1.00 / 1) (#201)
    by moe21885 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:32:49 PM EST
    no one called you any names. The commentary you posted is clearly counterfactual and conveniently leaves out significant demographic differences between the two states, differences that explain the exit poll differentials, in an effort to paint Obama as having a racial problem. Your reposting of it indicates at least a modicum of agreement, which is why I addressed my comment to you.

    [ Parent ]
    And Wisconsin! (none / 0) (#212)
    by WorkinJoe on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:44:30 PM EST
    Obama carried Wisconsin by 17 percent and the Badger State is heavily white.  Of course, WI is known as a progressive state with lots of clear thinkers and good-lookin' people!

    [ Parent ]
    Is this website going to become pro-McCain (1.00 / 1) (#73)
    by maritza on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:57:37 PM EST
    for the general?

    Only if you keep talking (5.00 / 3) (#81)
    by bjorn on Wed May 07, 2008 at 06:59:14 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I see no possible (none / 0) (#96)
    by pie on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:02:09 PM EST
    reason enough people will choose Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    commenters do not speak for TalkLeft (none / 0) (#142)
    by Jeralyn on Wed May 07, 2008 at 07:11:24 PM EST
    and you know that. You also know that both BTD and I will vote for the Democratic nominee and repeatedly urge everyone else to do so as well.

    One more comment like this and you will have to leave.

    [ Parent ]