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Thursday :: February 07, 2008

Obama: Cult , Evangelicalism or Political Campaign?

I'm so glad to see I'm not the only one a bit turned off by the messianic fervor Barack Obama is generating. Jake Tapper at ABC News lists a few others.

Katherine Greier at TPM Cafe, an Obama supporter, writes:

"Excuse me, but this sounds more like a cult than a political campaign. The language used here is the language of evangelical Christianity – the Obama volunteers speak of 'coming to Obama' in the same way born-again Christians talk about 'coming to Jesus.'...So I say, we should all get a grip, stop all this unseemly mooning over Barack, see him and the political landscape he is a part of in a cooler, clearer, and more realistic light, and get to work."

Joe Klein at Time Magazine points out the Obama gap between inspiration and substance:

More...

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Politics As Usual: Obama Refusing To Debate Clinton

By Big Tent Democrat

Let me get this out of the way first - given Hillary Clinton's money woes, Barack Obama would be crazy to agree to once a week debates with Hillary Clinton. He is coldly and remorselessly pressing his money advantage by NOT debating her. I would think less of him if he did agree to debate once a week.

But this does underscore a fact that is always glossed over if not simply falsely spoken about - Barack Obama is a run of the mill politician in his tactics. There is no "new" politics here. Even worse, his "unity schtick" is not good for the Democratic Party and Dem values. It may be good for the Party of Obama, but that remains to be seen. But one thing is clear, this is politics as usual:

When asked whether he would accept the invitation from Mrs. Clinton to attend four more debates in the coming weeks, he laughed. “I don’t think anybody is clamoring for more debates,” he said. “We’ve had 18 debates so far. I think we’ve had 10 more than we’ve had in the last Democratic contest.”

That is a pol being a pol. And good for Obama. But please, no more about how he is transcending the usual politics. There has been one one on one debate. Just one. And it was a terrific debate. As a citizen, I say more please. As a Democrat I say more please. As an admirer of Abraham Lincoln, I say more please. But Barack Obama is a pol, doing what is best for his campaign. As he should. Being a pol is what he is supposed to do.

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Huge Mob Bust in New York and Italy

The feds have been busy in New York -- as have their counterparts in Italy. In New York, 50 alleged mobsters were arrested today and charged in an 80 count Indictment.

From the news description, it sounds like the case is heavily built on snitch testimony.

Charles Carneglia was charged with five murders, including court officer Albert Gelb in 1976, gangster Louis DiBono in 1990, armored car guard Jose Delgado Rivera in 1990 and Gambino associate Salvatore Puma in 1983. Nick Corozzo was charged with murdering Robert Arena and Thomas Maranga, two drug dealers in Brooklyn, in 1996.

Those murders are so old, the most likely way new evidence was developed was by getting it from someone who claims to have been there or have first-hand knowledge they decided to pass on to the feds. Will they have some forensics to back up the charges, or rely totally on the turncoats?

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NYTimes Analysis: Obama Fervor Fell Short

The New York Times analyzes Super Tuesday and concludes the "movement" and fervor that has become the hallmark of the Barack Obama presidential campaign fell short. Not that it petered out, just that as in New Hampshire, it failed to meet expectations.

One telling sign: Last minute voters tended to go for Hillary.

Throughout a week when Mr. Obama was campaigning with members of the Kennedy family, when there was a sense that he was creating a movement that cut across racial and generational lines, there was a steady movement of Democrats toward Mr. Obama, the survey suggested. But those who reported making their decision on the last day bucked the trend, tending to vote for Mrs. Clinton, of New York.

What it may mean: The fervor for Obama may not translate into votes. [More...]

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New Mexico to Start Counting Provisional Ballots

Election results are so close in New Mexico that tomorrow morning, officials will begin hand-counting 17,000 provisional ballots.

Provisional ballots are given to voters who show up to the wrong site, whose names are not on registered voter lists provided by the state or who requested an absentee ballot but signed an affidavit saying they did not return it.

As of tonight, with one precinct left, Hillary Clinton is leading Barack Obama by 1,000 votes.

With 183 of 184 of precincts reporting, Hillary Rodham Clinton held a lead of 1,092 votes — 67,921 votes compared to 66,829 for Barack Obama, according to preliminary results posted on the state Democratic Party's Web site.

Officials from both campaigns will be present for the count, but the news media is excluded.

At stake for Hillary and Obama: dividing up New Mexico's 26 committed delegates. There are also 12 superdelegates who can vote how they want once they get to the convention in Denver.

With the race this close, it looks like a split of 26 delegates, whoever wins. I guess the rest is about bragging rights.

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Wednesday :: February 06, 2008

The Next Primary and Caucus Battles

Here are the next group of states to vote:

Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine, Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, Wisconsin and Hawaii.

After 28 state primaries and caucuses from Jan. 3 to Feb. 5, the Democratic calendar now airs out a bit. Mr. Obama planned to head to Louisiana, Maryland, and Virginia in the coming days, while Mrs. Clinton intended to campaign in Virginia, Maine which holds caucuses on Sunday and maybe Louisiana, which she and Mr. Obama have often visited, in part to draw attention to the slow pace of recovery from Hurricane Katrina.

It's not over then because Ohio and Texas still have to vote. Hillary has a 20 point lead in Ohio and is expected to quite well in Texas.

Both campaigns are already looking ahead to March 4, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont vote, producing the second-largest single day total of delegates, 534.

Another biggie is Pennsylvania, with 158 delegates, whose primary isn't until April 22. [More...]

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Gallup Poll: Hillary Ahead and Rising

A Gallup Poll released today shows Hillary has been gaining support the past three days and nationally leads Obama 52% to 39%.

The increase in support for Hillary Clinton at the national level that Gallup saw in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday continued in interviewing Tuesday night. Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Feb. 3-5 now includes three consecutive days in which Clinton has done well, giving her a 13-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 52% to 39%.

Democratic preferences in Tuesday night's interviews -- mostly conducted before Super Tuesday election results were known -- were similar to Sunday and Monday night's interviews.

New post-Super Tuesday numbers will be out tomorrow.

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The Delegate Count

By Big Tent Democrat

Previously, I have been relying on Chris Bowers to provide you the delegate counts. I have no inclination nor access to the data that would allow me to figure it out. But some news reports have given me pause. For example, this evening the AP reports:

Clinton led with 784 Super Tuesday delegates to Obama's 758. In Missouri, the race was so close the two candidates split the state's 72 delegates evenly.

Overall, Clinton has 1,045 delegates, to 960 for Obama with 2,025 delegates required to claim the nomination in Denver at this summer's convention.

Similarly, CNN has Clinton ahead. At this point, I will just leave all these links and let you folks figure it out. I simply do not know.

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The Obama Broadcasting Company (NBC)

By Big Tent Democrat

I did not get to watch much of the coverage last night but Digby did:

Watching the returns last night I was once again struck by the rank lack of professionalism and complete abdication of journalistic ethics on MSNBC. I noted in my early post last night that if you wanted to see what the early exit polls were saying all you had to do was watch that channel. It was clear that the numbers were very bad for Clinton and excellent for Obama. They could barely contain themselves with broad hints and winks and nods that Clinton was toast. The sheer joy on their faces was a sight to behold.

Gene Robinson showed up before the returns were in claiming that the night was a repudiation of Bill Clinton. Prior to the polls closing Mike Barnicle said that Massachusetts was a clear sign that Clinton had lost her edge. Olbermann, Matthews, O'Donnell, all of them, looked feverish and excited at the beginning of the coverage only to end up dull and uninspired. Although their preferred candidate in the end did very well last night, it wasn't the total rout they had been expecting and so they were unhappily left spinning excuses and robotically reciting vote counts by the end of the night.

. . . [I]n their desire to stand by their pal [Tweety], they have become obsessively anti-Clinton and pro-Obama, nearly to the point of parody.

Sounds about what I expected. Did you read any Establishment blogs note this? Of course not. Because they are feverishly pro-Obama too.

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Obama Campaign Predicts Deadlocked Race

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Kevin Drum, the Obama camp is predicting a deadlocked race:

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

Fascinating. Boy will we have a mess if that is true. Florida and Michigan and the superdelegates will be in the middle of it. Frankly if that happens, an Obama/Clinton, Clinton/Obama ticket simply is unavoidable. There can be no other way.

As always, time will tell.

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Zogby Explains His Polling

By Big Tent Democrat

But but but:

About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.

Yep, Zogby nailed Obama winning Illinois and Clinton winning New York. Thanks for the insight John. But what's missing an election by 23 points amongst us friends? We still love ya John.

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From The "Um, Ok" File

Obama will be the first woman President:

Obama supporter Megan Beyer, wife of former Virginia lieutenant governor Donald S. Beyer said "[i]n many ways, he really will be the first woman president[.]"

Um, oookaaay.

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