Here are the next group of states to vote:
Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine, Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, Wisconsin and Hawaii.
After 28 state primaries and caucuses from Jan. 3 to Feb. 5, the Democratic calendar now airs out a bit. Mr. Obama planned to head to Louisiana, Maryland, and Virginia in the coming days, while Mrs. Clinton intended to campaign in Virginia, Maine which holds caucuses on Sunday and maybe Louisiana, which she and Mr. Obama have often visited, in part to draw attention to the slow pace of recovery from Hurricane Katrina.
It's not over then because Ohio and Texas still have to vote. Hillary has a 20 point lead in Ohio and is expected to quite well in Texas.
Both campaigns are already looking ahead to March 4, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont vote, producing the second-largest single day total of delegates, 534.
Another biggie is Pennsylvania, with 158 delegates, whose primary isn't until April 22. [More...]
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A Gallup Poll released today shows Hillary has been gaining support the past three days and nationally leads Obama 52% to 39%.
The increase in support for Hillary Clinton at the national level that Gallup saw in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday continued in interviewing Tuesday night. Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Feb. 3-5 now includes three consecutive days in which Clinton has done well, giving her a 13-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 52% to 39%.
Democratic preferences in Tuesday night's interviews -- mostly conducted before Super Tuesday election results were known -- were similar to Sunday and Monday night's interviews.
New post-Super Tuesday numbers will be out tomorrow.
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By Big Tent Democrat
Previously, I have been relying on Chris Bowers to provide you the delegate counts. I have no inclination nor access to the data that would allow me to figure it out. But some news reports have given me pause. For example, this evening the AP reports:
Similarly, CNN has Clinton ahead. At this point, I will just leave all these links and let you folks figure it out. I simply do not know.Clinton led with 784 Super Tuesday delegates to Obama's 758. In Missouri, the race was so close the two candidates split the state's 72 delegates evenly.
Overall, Clinton has 1,045 delegates, to 960 for Obama with 2,025 delegates required to claim the nomination in Denver at this summer's convention.
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By Big Tent Democrat
I did not get to watch much of the coverage last night but Digby did:
Watching the returns last night I was once again struck by the rank lack of professionalism and complete abdication of journalistic ethics on MSNBC. I noted in my early post last night that if you wanted to see what the early exit polls were saying all you had to do was watch that channel. It was clear that the numbers were very bad for Clinton and excellent for Obama. They could barely contain themselves with broad hints and winks and nods that Clinton was toast. The sheer joy on their faces was a sight to behold.
Gene Robinson showed up before the returns were in claiming that the night was a repudiation of Bill Clinton. Prior to the polls closing Mike Barnicle said that Massachusetts was a clear sign that Clinton had lost her edge. Olbermann, Matthews, O'Donnell, all of them, looked feverish and excited at the beginning of the coverage only to end up dull and uninspired. Although their preferred candidate in the end did very well last night, it wasn't the total rout they had been expecting and so they were unhappily left spinning excuses and robotically reciting vote counts by the end of the night.
. . . [I]n their desire to stand by their pal [Tweety], they have become obsessively anti-Clinton and pro-Obama, nearly to the point of parody.
Sounds about what I expected. Did you read any Establishment blogs note this? Of course not. Because they are feverishly pro-Obama too.
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By Big Tent Democrat
Via Kevin Drum, the Obama camp is predicting a deadlocked race:
By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.
Fascinating. Boy will we have a mess if that is true. Florida and Michigan and the superdelegates will be in the middle of it. Frankly if that happens, an Obama/Clinton, Clinton/Obama ticket simply is unavoidable. There can be no other way.
As always, time will tell.
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By Big Tent Democrat
About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.
Yep, Zogby nailed Obama winning Illinois and Clinton winning New York. Thanks for the insight John. But what's missing an election by 23 points amongst us friends? We still love ya John.
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Obama will be the first woman President:
Obama supporter Megan Beyer, wife of former Virginia lieutenant governor Donald S. Beyer said "[i]n many ways, he really will be the first woman president[.]"
Um, oookaaay.
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By Big Tent Democrat
This is bad news for the Clinton campaign:
Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson sends over the following:Late last month Senator Clinton loaned her campaign $5 million.The loan illustrates Sen. Clinton’s commitment to this effort and to ensuring that our campaign has the resources it needs to compete and win across this nation. We have had one of our best fundraising efforts ever on the web today and our Super Tuesday victories will only help in bringing more support for her candidacy.
So it is clear that the Clinton campaign DOES have money troubles. This is the very bad news from yesterday. I must admit I am surprised. And yes, this does change my thinking somewhat about who won Super Tuesday. If Obama forced Clinton to these extremes, then it was more of a positive for Obama than I thought.
I could think of mitigating circumstances for this (i.e. no time for fundraising) but that does not really wash. If she can not get her fundraising groove back, this will be a decided advantage for Obama.
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Chris Bowers has an updated post on the delegate count and as I read it Chris shows Clinton with maybe a 2 delegate advanatage on Super Tuesday.
Where did Obama have a big delegate edges? Alaska (+5), Colorado (+17), Georgia (+17), Idaho (+12), Illinois (+43), Kansas (+14), Minnesota (+24) and Utah (+5).
Where did Clinton have a big delegate edge? Arizona (+6), Arkansas (+14), California (+39), Massachusetts (+17), New Jersey (+14), New York (+42), Oklahoma (+10) and Tennessee (+15). These were Clinton's 8 wins.
The close divides came in Alabama (Obama +2), Delaware (Obama +3), New Mexico, (even) Missouri (even), North Dakota (Obama +3). A total of plus 8 for Obama. Obama may have won all 6 of these, pending a counting of the provisional votes in New Mexico.
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By Big Tent Democrat
Here is an interesting development - before last night's voting, continuing in his speech last night and continuing today, Barack Obama seems to be in full bore negative campaigning mode:
Sen. Barack Obama predicted Wednesday that Republicans will have a dump truck full of dirt to unload on Hillary Rodham Clinton if the former first lady wins the Democratic presidential nomination, and said he offers the party its best hope of winning the White House this fall.
Whatever happened to the politics of hope?
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By Big Tent Democrat
While we can reasonably wrangle about what the meaning of the Super Tuesday results were for Clinton and Obama, I think we all can agree that it was not a good night for the Kennedy endorsers of Obama, especially Ted Kennedy and Maria Shriver.
Despite polls showing Obama with a reasonable chance of winning Massachusetts and California, and with the Media in a Kennedy frenzy, Obama took a sound beating in both MA and CA. And I do not think Ted Kennedy helped Obama in Alaska, Idaho and Utah.
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By Big Tent Democrat
Greg Sargent calls this claim by the Clinton campaign strained:
This one is worth keeping an eye on, because we'll be hearing more of it in the days ahead. In the Clinton campaign conference call I mentioned below, Hillary pollster Mark Penn repeatedly said Obama was becoming an "establishment candidate" -- a rather strained effort to use Obama's high-profile endorsements to weaken his insurgent appeal.
When the Establishment Media, Establishment politicans and Establishment bloggers all are for you, that sort of makes you the candidate of the Establishment. Of course Clinton is no insurgent. That would be ridiculous. But at this point, to call Obama an insurgent candidate is equally ridiculous.
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