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Obama Campaign Predicts Deadlocked Race

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Kevin Drum, the Obama camp is predicting a deadlocked race:

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

Fascinating. Boy will we have a mess if that is true. Florida and Michigan and the superdelegates will be in the middle of it. Frankly if that happens, an Obama/Clinton, Clinton/Obama ticket simply is unavoidable. There can be no other way.

As always, time will tell.

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  • Display: Sort:
    When it's down to 1 Superdelegate (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by Ben Masel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:13:41 PM EST
    Jimmy Carter will decide the nominee.

    So Clinton really is the underdog. (none / 0) (#1)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:54:25 PM EST
    But, was this release really "inadvertent"?

    You know (none / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:00:58 PM EST
    I would think so.

    Do not see the upsaide for Obama on this.

    [ Parent ]

    Perhaps (5.00 / 2) (#52)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:24:47 PM EST
    They felt they had to defuse the emerging BTD narrative before it overtook everyone.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh (none / 0) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:28:09 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    BTD (none / 0) (#91)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:45:18 PM EST
    upside on the release or upside on the outcome?

    [ Parent ]
    The release (none / 0) (#111)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:55:57 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I see the release (none / 0) (#125)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:11:58 PM EST
    as backing up what Obama said today: superdelegates, you better fall in line or I will rip this party asunder.

    Tell me if I'm wrong, but I really saw what he said as a warning.

    [ Parent ]

    Did you see the item (none / 0) (#141)
    by stillife on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:37:38 PM EST
    on politico.com?  I'm sorry, I don't know how to link here yet, but it's entitled "Dems Head for Messy Nomination Process".  Here's the gist:

    It is easy to imagine that Barack Obama could get to Denver with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton, but that she could get the nomination based on the votes of the superdelegates.

    "And that," a senior Obama aide told me Tuesday night, "would create havoc."

    The article goes on to say (quoting from the Obama camp) that they've been successful at prying some superdelegates away from Hillary.

    I don't know much about backroom politics, but I wonder if this "accidental press release" is some kind of ploy to pressure superdelegates to support Obama for party unity.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama may implode (none / 0) (#198)
    by felizarte on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:50:29 AM EST
    if he is beginning to talk this way.  At any rate, there are quite a few states to have their caucauses and primaries.  It is premature for Obama to be making such statements, unless he had a real motive for doing so. If he is confident of his money and his campaign and his chances, he doesn't have to say anything like this.  I agree with someone else who said something about the Obama campaign possibly seeing some signs in their internal data to spook them this early.  

    [ Parent ]
    The More I Think About It (none / 0) (#110)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:55:20 PM EST
    I initially agreed and posted that there's nothing in this to help Obama and that I actually thought it helped Clinton.  

    Having thought about it longer, I'm not as sure.  What if he's worried that he won't come out ahead of Clinton, that he can't win the fight over Michigan/Florida, and/or the Super Delegates are going to want a Clinton/Obama ticket because she will have won the popular vote or the big states or whatever.  Perhaps one way to encourage super delegates to get behind him now is to suggest that he's going to be the pledged delegate victor and that if they don't coalesce around a nominee now, then the convention will be a mess.  

    He's had a great couple of weeks, perhaps his campaign has decided that now is the time to strike for Super Delegates.

    Or not.  An inadvertant leak is sometimes just an inadvertant leak.

    Eh, who knows?

    [ Parent ]

    Obama will implode (none / 0) (#113)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:57:31 PM EST
    One of his staff will hit the send button before looking at the "To" line. Or he'll be shocked when the bulldozers full of dirt show up on his front lawn and not Hillary's. Obama has been bubble boy so far.

    [ Parent ]
    Not for long (none / 0) (#2)
    by Aaron on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:55:55 PM EST
    Clinton better start thinking about how she's going to graciously accept the vice presidents seat.  :-)

    Obama/Clinton

    Clinton/Obama

    Either way, we win!

    And this is best for Democratic unity, and the national election.

    Perhaps (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:00:30 PM EST
    This money thing jarred me.

    I thought Clinton was in the drivers seat.

    NOw I am not at all sure where this goes.

    [ Parent ]

    Clinton (none / 0) (#165)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:11:35 PM EST
    Latest  daily  Gallup  shows   a  sharp  uptick  for   Clinton.    She's  leading  him  nationally   at  52%/39%.  

    Plenty of  money  for  Clinton's  campaign.  

    I  think its  an  act of  desperation  on Obama's  part.   BLUFF

    [ Parent ]

    veep (none / 0) (#143)
    by tek on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:41:23 PM EST
    I don't think Hillary will accept the Veep slot and I can't even imagine Obama would ask her, he's gotten so used to heaping abuse on her.

    [ Parent ]
    I think Obama (none / 0) (#3)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:56:07 PM EST
    should come up with a plan that can get both Florida and Michigan seats in Denver but where the delegates from the votes aren't the ones going.

    Either call for special elections or come up with a different idea.  By doing this he can short circuit calls to seat the current delegates which will get ugly otherwise.  

    Is Obama going to pay for the special elections? (none / 0) (#5)
    by RalphB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:58:07 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Of course not (none / 0) (#12)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:01:45 PM EST
    Why should he?   He wasn't the one who violated the rules.  

    [ Parent ]
    The whole idea is silly (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:04:05 PM EST
    There will be no do overs on this.

    [ Parent ]
    My idea is so silly (none / 0) (#181)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:55:38 PM EST
    that apparently happened in 2004 and 1996...

    http://www.mgwashington.com/index.php/news/article/wiil-florida-and-michigan-have-prez-primary-redos 479


    The idea of a caucus - held after the primary -- is not a new idea.

    It had been suggested to Florida by DNC officials last year, amid the fight over the state's setting its primary for Jan. 29.

    And the national party even said it would pay for most of it.

    In 1996, Delaware held a caucus to select delegates after holding a primary that year that was ruled meaningless; the District of Columbia did the same in 2004.

    The idea is that Florida's and Michigan's delegates could be restored to legitimate status -- and still make a difference -- if the state parties held caucuses in the next few months and made those, not their January primaries, the official delegate selection events.

    One DNC official said today there are two ways Florida can move forward.

    It can press ahead with its delegate-selection process based on its primary held against party rules on Jan. 29, and likely not see its delegates seated.

    Or it can now hold a caucus, and hope that the convention credentials committee will recognize the delegates selected in that process. But the official said that has been the choice facing Florida since last year.

    I really fail to see why this is such a terrible idea.  Hillary already won the states.  So why not just legitimize those primaries by holding them again?

    [ Parent ]

    Nor did the Voters (none / 0) (#31)
    by Salt on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:11:29 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Given the Democratic party permitted (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:14:10 PM EST
    voting on line by U.S. citizens living outside the U.S., seems to me they could permit the same thing for MI and FL.  

    [ Parent ]
    voting online (none / 0) (#98)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:48:35 PM EST
    very few people in rural Florida (as well as the elderly) would even begin to know what "online" means.  Extremely unconnected to the net and totally left out as far as infrastructure.  Remember, this is a state without a sales tax.

    [ Parent ]
    GOTV to the local library, (none / 0) (#103)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:51:49 PM EST
    although w/o sales tax, maybe there is no library or no computer in the library.

    [ Parent ]
    oculus (none / 0) (#126)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:13:21 PM EST
    who is going to drive them there?  Florida is very rural.  Everyone has a car or they stay at home.

    [ Parent ]
    Let's move on to a consideration of (none / 0) (#138)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:25:55 PM EST
    text messaging via cell phone.  It does surprise me to see what can only be called an elderly person with a cell hone glued to his or her ear.  

    [ Parent ]
    evidence (none / 0) (#109)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:55:16 PM EST
    very few people in rural Florida (as well as the elderly) would even begin to know what "online" means.
    Any evidence for the assertion that so many people wouldn't know what "online" means?
    Remember, this is a state without a sales tax.

    Ummm... yea they do.  

    I think you meant that they don't have an income tax.  And that really isn't relevant anyway.  The lack of an income tax has little/nothing to do with their infrastructure.  They don't have an income tax because the state makes so much money off the tourism industry that they have decided that they do not need an income tax.

    [ Parent ]

    you're right (none / 0) (#130)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:16:28 PM EST
    income tax.

    But, I am shocked that you think everyone is able to vote online there.  I spent every summer of my childhood in various spots all over Florida, and just about every summer now I am at the beach for a week or two.  I own property there and I have a lot of friends there.  As for the tourism dollar, take a look at how many people don't live on a beach or near Disneyland.  Are you telling me people in Two Egg are living off tourist dollars?  There are folks living well below the poverty line.  How are they going to vote?

    [ Parent ]

    ummm... (none / 0) (#160)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:03:43 PM EST
    ... I never said anything about whether or not I thought people would be able to vote online, did I?

    Nor did I say anything about poverty.

    And yes... people in Two Egg are living off of tourist dollars - the state gets significant money from taxes related to tourism, and that money funds many things.  

    Now... that doesn't mean that there is no poverty.  Nor does it mean that everyone has internet access.

    I was doing two things: I was simply asking you to support you assertion regarding people knowing what "online" was.   And I was correcting your fault assertion that certain segments of Florida don't have any infrastructure because of the lack of a sales (or income) tax.

    [ Parent ]

    ummmmm (none / 0) (#178)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:49:32 PM EST
    if you would bother to read upthread, you would see my response was to a comment about letting Floridians vote online.  You responded to my response, so I assumed that you had, in fact, read the thread rather than just commenting willy nilly.

    If you think Florida has good infrastructure, then you haven't been anywhere instate in a very long time.  

    [ Parent ]

    ugh... (none / 0) (#182)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:56:46 PM EST
    ... you aren't reading anything I write.  Or at least you are ignoring it.

    I know that this was about voting online.  I never said it wasn't.  I was asking you to support you assertion that many in Florida wouldn't even know what "online" is.  

    I also never said Florida had good infrastructure, did I?  If I ever said that, please point it out.  I simply said that any infrastructure problems do not come from the lack of sales tax, being that they have sales tax.  And that you were probably referring to the income tax that they don't have, which still isn't to blame for poor infrastructure issues.  

    [ Parent ]

    She didn't violate the rules (none / 0) (#199)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:14:27 AM EST
    At best (or worst) she violated the spirit of the rules. What she did was play the rules more skillfully than Obama. This is what lawyers do. To me it suggests she is the better lawyer.

    As for violating the rules, about those (nationwide) Obama commercials I saw down here in Florida....

    Was that a violation of the rules, or merely a violation of their spirit while  adroitly playing them?

    How about that organized campaign in MI to get votes for uncommitted?

    You act as though we are ill informed down here. Don't piss off voters you need by foolish,  insulting comments.  

    Don't be so holier than thou that you are blind to the fact that Obama is every bit the ambitious Pol that HRC is.

    Lets not deify him until he is dead and we can review his entire career.

    [ Parent ]

    Um (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:59:40 PM EST
    how in the world do you think that solves the problem?

    The candidates will have to cut a deal.

    [ Parent ]

    Well (none / 0) (#24)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:08:08 PM EST
    Special elections, likely held at the end of the election cycle, could be given focus by the candidates.  

    I just don't see how a deal could be cut that would be equitable to both parties.  

    And honestly it doesn't matter if they have the special election.  Obama needs to get ahead of the debate.  By suggesting this he would force Hillary to either agree or argue that her tainted wins should count regardless of whether a considerable number of voters were disenfranchised.

    [ Parent ]

    There is no chance (none / 0) (#34)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:13:33 PM EST
    of a special caucus. None.

    [ Parent ]
    That may be so (none / 0) (#48)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:22:24 PM EST
    But there is no way that the current delegates will get seated either.  There would be lawsuits galore if the DNC tried to seat them in a meaningful convention.

    So the matter becomes on of perception.  Better to take the lead than allow your opponent to frame the argument.

    [ Parent ]

    Lawsuits? (none / 0) (#50)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:24:13 PM EST
    Puhleeaze.

    If Hillary has the most delegates they will most definitely be seated.

    If Obasma has the most there will be a deal cut - Obama at the top of the ticket and Clinton either being the VP or picking the VP.


    [ Parent ]

    Wow. Who the heck supplies your (none / 0) (#54)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:25:42 PM EST
    crystal ball?

    [ Parent ]
    Common sense (none / 0) (#68)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:33:26 PM EST
    If she has the most delegates, she can seat the Michigan and Florida delegations.

    Who can scream much? She has the most delegates. Hard to argue you deserve to be ther nominee if you do not have the most delegates. And she is going to pick Obama to unify the Party.

    If Obama has the most, he won't seat those delegations and has no way of forcing the nomination. He has to deal.

    The deal will be Hillary or her pick as VP.

    Simple.

    [ Parent ]

    Meaning, he has the most delegates but (5.00 / 0) (#72)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:35:16 PM EST
    not the magic number.  I get it.

    [ Parent ]
    never thought of it that way (none / 0) (#74)
    by athyrio on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:35:42 PM EST
    BTD but you are right, no way he cannot deal or those two states will be totally pissed...

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree (none / 0) (#65)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:31:19 PM EST
    If Hillary is ahead she has no reason to seat them and seating them will give the Obama supporters fodder for potential legal action.

    If Obama is ahead he might strike a deal for expediency sake but that assumes that Hillary would be willing to make a deal rather than try to go for the win by seating those delegates.  

    [ Parent ]

    What court would entertain such a (none / 0) (#75)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:36:29 PM EST
    lawsuit.  Party makes the rules, party enforces rules.  

    [ Parent ]
    All sorts of Constitutional problems (none / 0) (#81)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:39:13 PM EST
    The party makes the rules but retroactively changing the rules?  Not a chance.  

    [ Parent ]
    Don't the rules allow the delegates at the ... (5.00 / 0) (#88)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:42:22 PM EST
    ... convention to make this decision?

    [ Parent ]
    to which constitution (5.00 / 0) (#101)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:50:52 PM EST
    are you referring?  The constitution does not direct political parties.

    As a matter of fact, the constitution made it clear where they stood on a woman and a black man ever casting a vote, let alone getting one.

    [ Parent ]

    The 14th Amendment (none / 0) (#115)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:00:00 PM EST
    would be a good place to start.  

    I would need to read the Michigan Constitution to see what's there.  

    [ Parent ]

    Do you really think Obama will try to sue the ... (none / 0) (#117)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:02:16 PM EST
    ... the Democratic Party?

    [ Parent ]
    I don't know (none / 0) (#137)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:25:05 PM EST
    I doubt we will ever know because I doubt think the DNC would stick its nose into this.  

    [ Parent ]
    And what is the state action? (none / 0) (#201)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:21:06 AM EST
    You do understand the 14th amendment requires an action by a state or municipal government?

    Here try reading this

    What section of the 14th amendment do you think applies and why?


    [ Parent ]

    And what is the state action? (none / 0) (#202)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:24:24 AM EST
    You do understand the 14th amendment, section 1 requires an action by a state or municipal government? That  sections 2 & 3 refer to congress, not political conventions? We are not discussing validity of debt, so section 4 is out. What law did congress pass pursuant to enforce which of the previous 4 sections and how does it apply?

    Here try reading this

    What section of the 14th amendment do you think applies and why?


    [ Parent ]

    BTD, did you ever complete your update on (none / 0) (#85)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:41:34 PM EST
    one person one vote prior to GE?

    [ Parent ]
    No (none / 0) (#89)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:44:15 PM EST
    But you are right I think given recent decisions.

    Party issues, not government issues here.

    No case period.

    [ Parent ]

    Except that (none / 0) (#99)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:48:57 PM EST
    the state governments WERE involved in this decision.  They voted to change the dates.

    You are certainly correct that this is a Party issue however IF one of the parties acts in a way to procedurally change the game in such a way that they  give a specific candidate what is perceived to be an unfair advantage, you can be CERTAIN that the courts would step in.

    I don't think the DNC wants to even risk that of course.  

    I will agree that if the loser is willing to take the VP role, your scenario is more likely.

    [ Parent ]

    Florida (none / 0) (#144)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:43:00 PM EST
    state government, republican controlled, made the decision.

    Local folks did not have a choice.

    [ Parent ]

    Except the action you complain of (none / 0) (#203)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:29:12 AM EST
    was done by the party. The state's action was irrelevant.

    This is a "cry in your beer every Thursday night" cause of action as Professor Cochran used to say.

    If by some miracle such a case succeeded it would be Bush v Gore redux.  

    [ Parent ]

    And the state action is what? (none / 0) (#200)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:16:11 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    That may be so (none / 0) (#167)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:16:11 PM EST
    Uh,  no, flyerhawk.  

    Obama  has  already  promised   the  FLorida  voters    that  he  will  SUPPORT  their  reinstatement.  

    If  he  goes  back on that  promise,  he's  toast.  

    [ Parent ]

    I don't understand your comment. (none / 0) (#36)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:14:32 PM EST
    If the delegates are seated, the voters are not disenfranchised.

    [ Parent ]
    That too (none / 0) (#37)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:16:50 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Of course they are (none / 0) (#44)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:20:04 PM EST
    Since Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan the delegates representing him could never be delegates at the convention.  

    Would you feel disenfranchised if your candidate was not on the ballot in your state.

    [ Parent ]

    Hillary was on the ballot and Obama ... (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:30:06 PM EST
    ... could have been on the ballot.  You need to speak to Obama about why he (and Edwards) chose not to be on the ballot.  If anyone 'disenfranchised' the voters, it was Obama and Edwards, right?

    [ Parent ]
    That's a rationalization (none / 0) (#70)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:34:11 PM EST
    The delegates were annulled. They ALL agreed not to campaign.  Hillary decided not to remove her name.  

    It doesn't matter.  The horse is out of the barn and if the DNC were to change their mind and allow the delegates to be seated the Obama campaign could sue and WOULD win. No question.

    [ Parent ]

    But the voters still voted ... (none / 0) (#84)
    by robrecht on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:40:54 PM EST
    In that sense the horses are not only out of the barn, but they're comin' round the mountain already.  Can't sue a horse.

    [ Parent ]
    Glass 1/2 full version (none / 0) (#154)
    by ding7777 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:14:55 PM EST
    Obama (and Edwards) chose to extend the pledge by removing his name from the ballot. Hillary adhered to the pledge that she (and they) signed.

    [ Parent ]
    1/2 Full (none / 0) (#168)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:20:10 PM EST
    Correct.    Obama  VOLUNTARILY  chose  to  remove  his  name;  his  choice.  

    No   case.

    [ Parent ]

    Okay (none / 0) (#49)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:23:05 PM EST
    How about that for a compromise.

    Seat the Florida delegation and have a revote in Michigan?

    You think Obama would go for that? ME neither.

    [ Parent ]

    Probably not (none / 0) (#57)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:27:39 PM EST
    But honestly he might.  It really depends on what he thinks he could get in Michigan.  I would imagine that the total delegates for each state would need to be equal though.

    [ Parent ]
    The assumption is Obama couldn't (none / 0) (#83)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:40:10 PM EST
    have beat HRC in MI in a primary, but I wouldn't bet on that until I saw the demographics.  Detroit is similar to St. Louis, white flight leaving a black city behind.  Lots of rural communities, which seem to vote for Obama.  Lots of white, highly educated people in Ann Arbor, East Lansing, Kalamazoo, Ypssilanti (I used to know how to spell that), etc.  Not sure about precentage of Latinos.  Of course, if HRC skims off the blue collar voters, he's in trouble.  

    [ Parent ]
    Well (none / 0) (#90)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:44:25 PM EST
    the fact that she was only able to beat Uncommitted by 15% and  237,000 voters actually went to the polls to vote Uncommitted suggests that he would have had a great chance.

    [ Parent ]
    not fair (5.00 / 1) (#104)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:52:22 PM EST
    Obama actively campaigned for "uncommitted."

    You can't have it both ways.

    [ Parent ]

    Not fair (none / 0) (#169)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:23:07 PM EST
    Absolutely  correct,  Kathy.  

    Obama's  campaign   chose  to withdraw his name  from   ballot in Michigan,   but  they  also   campaigned  HEAVILY  for  "Uncommitted"  against  Clinton.  

    They  were  ACTIVE  in Michigan.  

    [ Parent ]

    that is not true (none / 0) (#194)
    by Tano on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:18:26 AM EST
    there was no heavy campaign for uncommitted. There were a few minor local-based efforts, but thats it. Beleive me, I know.

    [ Parent ]
    Now how do we factor in Kos's admonition (none / 0) (#100)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:49:15 PM EST
    to go vote for Romney?  

    [ Parent ]
    Here is a deal (none / 0) (#131)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:16:30 PM EST
    Michigan uncommitteds given to Obama.

    Then a group of superdelegates for Clinton, equal to the combined FL/MI Clinton delegate advantage, agree to support Obama.

    Then the FL/MI delegates are seated and can vote, but their votes will be offset by the switching superdels.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm starting to like a coin flip scenario. (none / 0) (#134)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:18:05 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Florida (none / 0) (#166)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:13:09 PM EST
    So, you're  calling  for   DO-OVER   just  so  Obama   can be  favored?    

    He'll  never  carry   FLorida  in the  general  if  he  tries  to negate  Florida  votes  already  cast.

    [ Parent ]

    If this race is deadlocked (none / 0) (#4)
    by RalphB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 05:57:15 PM EST
    I hope it's fought to the bitter end with blood running in the aisles in Denver.  Anyone being forced out is completely unacceptable.

    By the way,  Good Morning President McCain.


    Not a problem with the two frontrunners (none / 0) (#8)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:00:54 PM EST
    being the ticekt.
    1.  They will complement each others' strengths and weaknesses - Obama as visionary instrument and worker of change, Clinton as hardbar, experienced policy wonk and armtwisting force.
    2.  Compare that pairing (either way) to what the Repugs are going to cough up - the 71 year old McCain, and (likely) the radical cleric Huckabee.
    3.  Now, we need to get Edwards to sign on as AG, with a quick shot to the S.Ct.

    4.  Imagine the pain the Repugs will feel against that.


    Who is the top of the ticket (none / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:02:11 PM EST
    is the issue.

    I have always said Obama would be Clinton's VP. If this is how it shakes out, then Clinton would have to be Obama's VP.

    Assuming Obama has the edge in delegates.

    [ Parent ]

    Rezko Card (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Salt on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:10:05 PM EST
    I belive the Rezko card is still looming.....maybe I am wrong but I think thats real trouble coming.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually, I think Clinton as VP (none / 0) (#33)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:13:29 PM EST
    would be the better resolution because
    1.  Obama's visionary change agenda is best expressed and carried into reality with him setting the tone from the top.  
    2.  The VP is traditionally the attack dog in the campaign, and (don't hold it against me for saying so) HRC can do that better than Obama can.  She's been through the forge and hardened.
    3.  Looking at the way Bush/Cheney worked out, you want a VP who's even more odious to the opposition party than is your president.  A friend said to me, pre-2000 election, in regards to Cheney as Bush's choice:  "best life insurance policy ever taken out".  We saw the analog in one of Pelosi's excuses for not impeaching Bushie:  "and what, then you get Dick Cheney."  It's a workable model.
    4. HRC has the experience in the ins and outs of DC and the govt from her experience in the WH which will allow her, working with Bam, to undo a lot of the devastation Bush/Cheney have wrought.
    5.  I think she'll be better twisting arms on the Hill than Obama would be.


    [ Parent ]
    I think those are backwards (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:25:09 PM EST
    Those arguments make me want Obama as Veep even more.

    1.  Obama's visionary change agenda is best expressed and carried into reality with him setting the tone from the top.  

       -- Obama is bound to look less substantive standing next to a policy wonk like Clinton.  It looks too much like Bush/Cheney, that she's going to be the one really running the government.  

    2. The VP is traditionally the attack dog in the campaign, and (don't hold it against me for saying so) HRC can do that better than Obama can.  She's been through the forge and hardened.

       -- In theory, I'd agree, but in practice every time Clinton says anything even vaguely critical, the press jumps all over her.  Meanwhile Obama has proven he can go negative without the press calling him negative.  

    3.  Looking at the way Bush/Cheney worked out, you want a VP who's even more odious to the opposition party than is your president.  A friend said to me, pre-2000 election, in regards to Cheney as Bush's choice:  "best life insurance policy ever taken out".  We saw the analog in one of Pelosi's excuses for not impeaching Bushie:  "and what, then you get Dick Cheney."  It's a workable model.

       -- First, I reject your belief that Clinton is more odious than Obama.  By the General Election, either (both) will be odious to Republicans.  Second, again, reminding voters of the Bush/Cheney
    dynamic is absolutely awful politics.

    4.  HRC has the experience in the ins and outs of DC and the govt from her experience in the WH which will allow her, working with Bam, to undo a lot of the devastation Bush/Cheney have wrought.

       -- Again, an argument for her to be on the top of the ticket.  We've seen what happens when we have a Vice President who understands the executive branch much better than the President.  And even if Clinton wouldn't go out and usurp the President's role, it's terrible optics to have a ticket where it looks like the VP will have to conduct on-the-job training of the president.  Where it looks like she's going to be the one running the government day-to-day.  

    5.   I think she'll be better twisting arms on the Hill than Obama would be.

        -- Again, that's a president's job.  Having the VP do it just makes it look either like 1) she's the one really in charge or 2) he's not tough enough to do it himself.

    [ Parent ]

    Clinton is obviously more odious (none / 0) (#135)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:19:23 PM EST
    to the Republicans, who would be dreaming of doing an impeachment.

    [ Parent ]
    Clinton as Pres (none / 0) (#77)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:36:51 PM EST
    I can't see the Senior Senator being the VP to the junior and significantly less experienced Senator.

    [ Parent ]
    Well, Obama's raised a huge pile of money in the (none / 0) (#95)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:47:02 PM EST
    last 24 hours.  

    Like, $3.7 million.

    Sad to say, but money-raising ability usually trumps experience because the guy with the money gets the wins the vast majority of the time.  I think the way it turns out, HRC winds up swallowing her pride to get onto the ticket, if she's asked at all.

    [ Parent ]

    really? (none / 0) (#112)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:56:46 PM EST
    Tell that to Mitt Romney.  McCain was running on fumes a month ago.  You can't say that money makes the huge difference anymore.  The old paradigms don't work in this new type of election.

    As for an Obama/Clinton ticket, at the risk of ticking off Ted Kennedy again, it wasn't Kennedy who got sweeping social legislation passed.

    [ Parent ]

    McCain (none / 0) (#158)
    by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:52:56 PM EST
    was running on fumes six months ago, not when the money matters as much.  Obama gets better returns on his money than Romney does.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama (none / 0) (#186)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:11:39 PM EST
    Obama  gets better returns  than Romney?  

    That  must  be  why  yesterday's  Gallup  shows  a  sharp  uptick for  Clinton,  and  shows  Obama  now  losing   52%  to  39%.  

    Better returns?   Rightyooooooo

    [ Parent ]

    Kennedy (none / 0) (#136)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:20:59 PM EST
    Johnson

    [ Parent ]
    Do the names JFK and LBJ mean anything to you? (none / 0) (#204)
    by Molly Bloom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:33:34 AM EST
    which was the senior senator? Which was the VP candidate?

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree (none / 0) (#39)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:18:11 PM EST
    this is so close, either could be at the top of the ticket, particularly if Clinton has won the popular vote, which I suspect will be true given that he's racking up a lot of his delegates in small caucus states.  And I've already discussed the Michigan/Florida issue, so I won't rehash that mess.

    Both are going to have an argument for the top of the ticket.  The question for the Super Delegates and party is which ticket is the best Democratic ticket.  That's Clinton/Obama.  I don't see how Obama/Clinton works.  It's weaker than either would be without the other.

    To the extent Clinton's money issues change anything, I think it raises questions about whether it will come to this.  But if she can stay in the race and this is the delegate count, then everyone is going to have to think about what's best for the party.  November has to be our top priority.

    [ Parent ]

    Delegates will determine this (none / 0) (#47)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:22:08 PM EST
    whoever is ahead EVEN by 1 will be the nominee.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by BDB on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:28:53 PM EST
    But that includes Super Delegates.  It will be Super Delegates, IMO, who decide this, not the pledged delegates.  One way they could decide it is to simply go with the pledged delegate count minus Michigan and Florida.  One way is to go with it including Michigan and Florida.  One way is to look at the popular vote.

    Any of those ways is a disaster and will lead to half the party claiming an illegitimate result.  The Super Delegates will have to try to decide how to keep that from happening.  

    But if Obama's campaign is right, then we're all screwed and the Democrats will have found once again a way to weaken themselves going into a presidential campaign.  This will be an absolute disaster for the party.

    [ Parent ]

    Exactly. And Dem leadership know (none / 0) (#133)
    by Cream City on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:17:09 PM EST
    -- Super Delegates know -- that:

    Clinton has won most of the big blue states that are key in winning in November, and

    Clinton is the favorite of the committed Dems, the real Dems, not the "Dem for a Day" independents going for Obama.  They won't be at the convention, they won't be filling party coffers and leadership pipelines for years into the future.

    It seems clear to me what wise Dem leaders would do.

    [ Parent ]

    I agree with this (none / 0) (#51)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:24:43 PM EST
    If that doesn't happen the losing candidate and their supporters will go absolutely nuts.  

    [ Parent ]
    I would like to point out (5.00 / 0) (#116)
    by Kathy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:02:15 PM EST
    It's not Hillary Clinton who is making public statements warning superdelegates that there will be hell to pay if they swing this vote one way or another.

    I see that as a direct warning that Obama has every intention of splitting the party right down the middle if he doesn't get his way.

    Why the media isn't picking up on this is beyond me.  I mean, for the love of peeps, this is big stuff.  If I were an elder statesman/superdelegate, I'd be really, really pis*ed about some upstart first term junior senator telling me what I can and cannot do.  Plus, look at who has his back--Kennedy and Kerry, who can't even give the man their own state.

    This is not going to be good.

    [ Parent ]

    The Obama camp (none / 0) (#146)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:45:12 PM EST
    is playing the part of Bush 2000 and I don't like it one bit.

    [ Parent ]
    a gratuitous insult (none / 0) (#147)
    by Tano on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:53:18 PM EST
    Which campaign is threatening, in the case where they fall short in the number of earned delegates, to throw on the table a bunch of delegates that she had already agreed would not count?


    [ Parent ]
    Not gratuitous at all (none / 0) (#155)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:25:42 PM EST
    Only one side is threatening to blow up the whole deal if they don't get their way in the end.

    This is exactly how it played out in 2000.  The Republicans came across as the irrational ones who would riot if they didn't get the win.  The Democrats were seen as the sensible ones who would obey the judgment of the courts.  And so the media wound up begging the Democrats to please, please just let the Republicans have their way, so that there wouldn't be an irreconcilable rift.

    Either outcome - not allowing MI and FL to decide the nominee, or reversing the decision that everyone relied on - is going to result in some amount of injustice to someone.  If you disagree with that, and you believe that one of the options is eminently fair, then of course you wouldn't have a problem with things working out that way.  But that's not reality.

    [ Parent ]

    Insult???? (none / 0) (#187)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:15:04 PM EST
    I guess  you're  unaware  that  Obama    himself  pledged  to   SUPPORT  reinstating  both Michigan and Florida  at  the  convention.  

    Go  back on that promise,  and he's toast.

    [ Parent ]

    I concur on that (none / 0) (#80)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:39:02 PM EST
    but it likely will be the superdelegates who really do it.  

    You're assuming delegates will hold to their pledges (not all of them will).

    You're also assuming Edwards will release his delegates, instead of asking them to move one way or the other.

    Oh, and as to superdelegates.  Since Senator Sanctimony of Connecticut, formerly of the Connecticut for Lieberman party but recently returned to the fold (sort of) would be, by virtue of his position as Senator, entitled to be a superdelegate, who gets to show him the door for (violating party rules by) campaigning for the Republican candidate, the 71 year old John McCain?  And, what if that credential fight is the balance of the superdelegates?  Or some of his buddies decide to go with him?

    [ Parent ]

    Don't be conclusory - like when you say (none / 0) (#67)
    by scribe on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:32:20 PM EST
    this:  
    I don't see how Obama/Clinton works.  It's weaker than either would be without the other.

    I just explained how it's stronger.  

    One of the big gripes about Obama has been that he's only been in the Senate a couple years, and has little real governmental experience.  HRC, OTOH, has been waist-deep in the big issues since she was a junior attorney fresh out of law school working for the House Judiciary on the Nixon impeachment.  

    The job of a president is not to micromanage - I first got to know that term when Carter was criticized for doing just that with all sorts of issues, like he was still the governor of Georgia.  Rather, the job of a president is to set a tone for how the executive branch of government will be run, select competent underlings, and make sure they carry out both his directives and comply with the tone of his policies.  A policy wonk will (almost certainly) get swamped by the details, but details are for subordinates.

    Obama promises change, and is often (rightly, IMHO) criticized for having not a lot behind that word.  With HRC as a VP, he can finesse that problem nicely.  

    And, as to the odiousness to the opposition angle, to be even more lucid, it's often mentioned in the African-American community that they despair of Obama ever becoming president, even if he were to win (the nomination or even the election), because some Klukker (or other racist/radical type, take your pick) with an assault weapon would make sure of the result.  It would surely give even the wackiest of wackos pause to know that Hillary (whom they hate even more for being Hillary than they do Obama for his blackness) is waiting in the wings.

    [ Parent ]

    No offense (none / 0) (#79)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:38:46 PM EST
    but Obama/Clinton is absurd.

    [ Parent ]
    Clinton/Obama ticket (none / 0) (#97)
    by Arabella Trefoil on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:48:11 PM EST
    would be suicidal.

    [ Parent ]
    Based on your previous comments ... (none / 0) (#120)
    by cymro on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:04:05 PM EST
    ... are we to assume you object to having Obama on the ticket, period? In which case, your post title is very misleading, especially since you provide no explanation as to who would be committing "suicide," or why. It implies, in the context of this discussion, that you object to a ticket having Clinton at the top.

    [ Parent ]
    Top o f the ticket (none / 0) (#170)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:26:38 PM EST
    Obama   won't  have  the most  delegates.  

    He   has  already  promised  Florida  he will support  their  reinstatment at  the  convention.

    Florida  numbers:
    Clinton  856,944
    Obama    568,930

    Obama  may be   "maneuvering" now  to make  sure  he  gets  the  VP  slot  and  Clinton doesn't look  elsewhere.  But  that's  all it is.

    [ Parent ]

    I could support a (none / 0) (#16)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:03:55 PM EST
    Clinton/Obama ticket

    [ Parent ]
    Inadvertently attached . . . (none / 0) (#10)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:01:22 PM EST
    Yeah sure.

    BTW, I was watching Jim Lehrer's show. He was interviewing David Brooks. I don't know about anyone else but I am getting a little tired of being told that Hillary's supporters are all old women or poor unprofessional workers.  Where is the statisical proof that Obama is drawing all the educated professionals. Doesn't look like it from what I am reading, seeing and hearing.

    What was in it for Obama? (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:02:40 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Being (none / 0) (#20)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:05:18 PM EST
    neck in neck is his most optimistic scenario. I don't believe he can win. Or maybe I don't want to believe he can win.

    [ Parent ]
    Hillary had pulled ahead by 13 points in Gallup (none / 0) (#23)
    by Salt on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:08:06 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    He's neck and neck now (none / 0) (#27)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:09:17 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Neck and Neck (none / 0) (#171)
    by auntmo on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:29:06 PM EST
    He's  not  neck  and  neck  now.  

    Gallup  daily  polling   for   Tues/Wed shows   a  sharp  uptick  for  Clinton:   She's now  beating  him   52%  to  39%.  

    Momentum  goes  to Clinton.  

    And  the  nex