By Big Tent Democrat

The thread in my post mortem post is overflowing. You can continue that discussion here or post about anything you like.

A data point. Chris Bowers has Clinton ahead in the pledged delegate count by 57 from the Super Tuesday contests. I have no idea if he is right. He is also speculating that Obama will narrow the gap and even be leading when all the delegates are counted. Time will tell.

This is an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

Unlike the entire world apparently, I see last night's results as the beginning of the end for the Obama Presidential campaign. My thinking is fairly straightforward - Obama's has been a Media and Mo campaign to knock off the resilient favorite. He has had a ten day stretch that is not likely to be matched again. From the Media coverage of the South Carolina primary, to the Kennedy endorsements, to polls showing him with a REAL chance of winning states like Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, this was a perfect storm for the Obama campaign. If he could have won Massachusetts and either New Jersey or California, he would have gained a stranglehold on the nomination. And not only did he not win any of those states, he got clobbered in all of them.

What does this bode for the rest of the schedule? IMO, more of the same. Obama will win states with the right demographic but lose the big states by large margins. What is going to happen to push Obama to victories in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, the 3 biggest prizes remaining? Can a nominee lose New York, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida and Michigan by wide margins?

1:39 am ET: Wolf Blitzer on CNN gives these Democratic delegate totals:

Hillary Clinton 591
Barack Obama 476
Total Needed 2025

That's it for me tonight. The spin on both sides begins tomorrow.

AS for my take, let's see who won the popular vote nationally and who has the largest delegate total. I may be in the minority on this, but I don't give much weight to winning the rural, less populated states with few delgates. Particularly those that aren't likely to go Democratic in the general election. (Idaho, Utah, Alaska, etc.)

What Obama has going for him is momentum. The question is, how long will it continue? Hillary has the big states and the biggest number of Democratic voters. The California delegate breakdown will be important. And a big unknown is still the superdelegates in all the states.

The AP reports:

At a rally in Chicago, Obama delivered a swipe at Clinton, telling supporters the race was between him and a candidate who accepts money from "special interests in Washington."

During her speech tonight to supporters in New York, Clinton struck a different tone, congratulating Obama on his victories.

"I look forward to our campaigns and our debates about how to leave this country better for the next generation," she told supporters who cheered her.

More...

Bump and Update: CNN calls California for Hillary Clinton. This is huge.

Update: Check out this California election result map and click on "by city." Obama won: San Louis Obispo, Chico and Eureka -- that's it. In 2004, the major recipient of donations in 2004 was G.W. Bush. San Luis Obispo leans Republican. The last Democrat to win there was Lyndon B. Johnson. Chico is in Butte County which supported GW Bush in 2000 and 2004.

***

California Dreaming...The polls just closed in California. Now we see who won the big prize. Offcial election results available here.

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

Hillary Clinton appears to have won a substantial victory in California capping off a very bad night for Barack Obama.

The three most highly contested states on Super Tuesday were Massachusetts, New Jersey and California. Obama was blown out in each of them.

Some bloggers and the Obama Network (NBC) will try to spin this away. But the respective speeches given by each of the candiates told the real tale. Clinton was ebulliant. Obama flat.

Of course anything can happen but I think Hillary Clinton stopped Barack Obama for good tonight. I know a lot of bloggers and the Media will go on and on about delegate counts but the point is Obama had his fair shot and he did not deliver today. I do not think he will have another one.

Update: Obama wins Alaska. MSNBC calls Missouri for Obama. Hillary's leading in New Mexico.

Update: Missouri at 97% in is 4,000 votes ahead to Obama. I just checked the counties with some precincts out and they are strong Obama counties so I won't be surprised if he wins there. But they will split the delegates so the effect won't be much.

Obama wins Colorado. He's speaking now. It's the unity and change theme, no red or blue states, just the United States.

Update: Hillary wins Arizona, Obama wins Utah and Idaho. Obama advisor David Axelrod: "We feel good about the ten states we won, they feel good about the seven states they won." What he leaves out is the size of the states Hillary won -- New York and Mass. are not equivalent to Utah and North Dakota.

Update: Projections give Illinois and Georgia to Obama. Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee projected for Hillary.

Update: Hillary wins New York, New Jersey, Massachussetts. Obama wins CT, Delaware, Kansas, MN, Alabama, North Dakota. 9:00 MT: polls now closing in California.

More....

6:20 pm: I'm at Morey Middle School in Denver. I got here early, around 5:50 pm. There were Obama signs everywhere and lots of Obama volunteers and I didn't see any for Hillary. At least 10 caucuses are meeting here.

I got in line. Within 10 minutes, there was a huge line behind me. Almost everyone is an Obama supporter.

We're all directed to go to the auditorium for a pre-caucus meeting where they will explain the rules. Then people will go to where their caucus is meeting. I get to stay in the auditorium as mine is meeting in here. They say there are several hundred people waiting to get in. A tv camera crew just arrived. [More....]

Here's a thread to vent about the media coverage of today's vote -- and to discuss the exit polls and pollsters. Are the pollsters as wrong as they were in New Hampshire or are they getting it right?

What network has the most neutral coverage? The most informative? Who are you muting today?

(Joe Lieberman, Lindsay Graham, John McCain watching the Superbowl)

I forget sometimes that Republicans also are voting today. If you've got any thoughts about them, here's a thread.

So far, Mike Huckabee won West Virginia.

By Big Tent Democrat

Two metrics.

How many states will each candidate (GOP and Dem) win?

And specifically who will win Mass, Cali, NJ, CT, MO, MN, CO and AZ?

I predict on those particular states Obama (MA, CA, CT, MN and CO) and Clinton (NJ, MO and AZ.)

How about you? This is an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

Not shocking, I know:

The CIA on three occasions shortly after the September 11 attacks used a widely condemned interrogation technique known as waterboarding, CIA Director Michael Hayden told Congress on Tuesday.

"Waterboarding has been used on only three detainees," Hayden told the Senate Intelligence Committee, publicly specifying the number of subjects and naming them for the first time, as Congress considers banning the technique.

In our name. Shameful.