By Big Tent Democrat

It is one of the most interesting phenomenas of this campaign and the Obama camp deserves great credit for this spin achievement - the turning of the pledged delegate count into the Holy Grail of this campaign. Many now pretend that the pledged delegate count was always treated as the ultimate metric for who would be the nominee. I know this to be false. How? Because ALL of us thought that if Barack Obama won the popular vote in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton's chances for winning the nomination would have been over. At that point, even if she had lost New Hampshire, Clinton would have held a lead in the total delegate count and would have been one delegate behind in the pledged delegate count. But she would have been defeated for the nomination. This campaign, indeed NO campaign, did not start with the pledged delegate count as the Holy Grail of this contest. On the flip, I will review some of the contemporaneous coverage so that we can see how the Obama camp succeeded in its spin.

There's progress on the death penalty front to report:

VA Governor Tim Kaine has imposed a moratorium on executions until the Supreme Court decides Baze v. Rees on whether lethal injection is cruel and unusual punishment.

Kaine said about 30 executions nationwide have been stayed since September, either by the Supreme Court, lower courts or governors.

In Missouri legislators are considering a bill that would impose a moratorium on executions until 2011 so that death sentences in the state can be reviewed.

Besides the freeze, the measure also would create a 10-person commission to study a random sample of death penalty cases to judge the fairness of the process. The panel could look at topics such as possible racial disparities and the quality of evidence used to convict the person.

More....

Hard to believe the last open thread is already filled. There was lots of talk about what we're watching instead of MSNBC and cable news. American Idol seemed to be a favorite, it's on now.

BTD just signed off for the night -- until I'm done with dinner and can post some substantive stuff, here's a place to continue your discussions -- all topics welcome.

I am completely unimpressed by Howard Dean's statement about seating the Florida delegates today.

Seating the delegates at the convention is not the same thing as allowing their votes to count in picking the party's nominee. Timing is everything. If the delegates aren't seated until the convention in August, it will be too late for them to have a role in choosing the nominee.

Dean isn't saying anything that wasn't said by the party initially -- the credentials or rules committee, at the request of the party nominee, can decide to to seat the delegates. As Florida Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman said back in January, before the primary:

Florida's 210 delegates will be seated at the national convention in August. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, honorary chair of the convention; Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean; and former DNC Chairman Don Fowler of South Carolina have all said that, ultimately, the presidential nominee will decide who attends the convention.

Dean seems to be implying that absent an agreement between Hillary and Obama, the delegates won't get to vote because the decision will have to wait until we have a nominee who makes his or her desire known to the appropriate committee.

In order for Florida's 1.7 million votes to really count, the penalty needs to be lifted before the last primary in June. Otherwise, Floridians will have no say in choosing the Democratic nominee. The risk in not lifting the penalty in time for Floridians' votes to count is that they will desert the party in droves in November, either by not voting or by voting for McCain. Who could blame them?

Here's Hillary Clinton's statement about Dean's announcement today:

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

I realize that I have not watched Keith Olbermann's show for a while now. I wonder if it is still the same anti-Hillary fest? I also wonder what people who have not been watching him lately who used to be regular watchers (like I once was) are watching now, if anything. Let me know what you are watching now.

This is an Open thread.

Update (TL):Comments now closed, a new open thread is up for you to continue your discussions.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Josh Marshall writes about the demographics of the Dem race:

The problem is in states with substantial but not particularly large African-American populations in which you have a deep-seated and pre-existing racial politics that ends up playing in Clinton's favor. This, if the theory is right, would explain why Obama does well in the Mountain West and the South but has a harder time in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. . . . But I don't think it adequately deals with all the admittedly small set of data we have. How, for instance, does it account for Obama's victories in Missouri, Maryland, Virginia, Connecticut among other states? . .

This is an issue we have explored in great detail here at Talk Left. For example here. Josh seems unfamiliar with the exit poll data. I am surprised he is pointing to Missouri as the counterpoint, since it actually is in line with the data in other bigger states. Wisconsin (with Virginia) was Obama's best results with white voters in bigger states. More . . .

By Big Tent Democrat

Here is another wrongheaded post from Chris Bowers. He evaluates the unifying effects of the Vice Presidential choice on the effect it will have on supporters of the potential Presidential nominee. Earth to Chris, the people who will need assuaging will be the losing candidate's supporters, not the winning candidate's supporters.

I have to shake my head sometimes. This is an Open Thread. Play nice. J, Chris and I will be out of pocket until tonight.

NOTE - Comments closed.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

So sayeth Howard Dean:

It is our intention to do everything that we can and we believe we'll absolutely seat a delegation from Florida at the convention. That is absolutely in the best interest of all of us.

Guess Florida won't be learning that important lesson about NOT moving up its primary that some Obama supporters insist is important. After all, seating the delegations means the DNC penalties will be lifted. How they will be seated remains a mystery. But get this:

Dean called on Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to agree to a solution to the impasse with the delegation.

So who should give in Mr. Chairman? We need revotes. For Florida AND Michigan.

Bump and Update: White Collar Crime Blog is following the developments. The issues to be argued are these.

Update: Here' s a preliminary news report on the hearing.

***

Original Post

Former Enron CFO Jeff Skilling, serving a 24 year sentence in federal prison, has his day in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals.

By all accounts, he has a very good chance of getting a reversal on most of the counts he was convicted on. [More...]

Quinnipiac has a new poll out today (Big Tent Democrat's post on it is here.)

Results:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters and runs better against Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

By the numbers:

In general election match ups of the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College, the survey finds.

• Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;
• Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
• Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

I would immediately renounce Harold Ickes' statement on the popular vote and endorse Tweety's proposals on MI/FL revotes and the popular vote:

Both candidates agree to full revotes in Michigan and Florida and both candidates agree that the winner of the national popular vote will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.

For this nomination to mean anything for either candidate, the nominee must be perceived to have won fair and square. I know Obama supporters scream that Clinton supporters are being outrageous and vice versa, but either candidate will need the supporters of the opponent. Clinton, imo, can not win without a "will of the people" argument, and the pledged delegate count will not be that. It must be the popular vote. More . .

By Big Tent Democrat

So says Marc Ambinder:

The size of the committee will not be reduced even though Florida and Michigan are not participating as delegate-producing bodies, according to a DNC spokesperson. Florida and Michigan WILL be represented on the credentials committee.

Let me say this, that if Obama and the Democratic Party force themselves to exclude Florida and Michigan from the Democratic Convention, as Howard Dean seems prepared to do (though I must add that Kos is absolutely wrong about Dean's position on FL and MI. Dean favored revotes - OBAMA blocked the revotes), kiss Florida and Michigan goodbye for November. Chalk up 44 electoral votes for John McCain right now. There is STILL time to fix this - with party run revotes. Those who argue against this now are arguing against the interests of the Democratic Party in order to favor the interests of Barack Obama. For all the talk of Hillary's selfishness, and all pols are selfish, the biggest, most damaging act of political selfishness remains Barack Obama's blocking of revotes for Florida and Michigan.