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If I Ran Hillary's Campaign . . .

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

I would immediately renounce Harold Ickes' statement on the popular vote and endorse Tweety's proposals on MI/FL revotes and the popular vote:

Both candidates agree to full revotes in Michigan and Florida and both candidates agree that the winner of the national popular vote will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.

For this nomination to mean anything for either candidate, the nominee must be perceived to have won fair and square. I know Obama supporters scream that Clinton supporters are being outrageous and vice versa, but either candidate will need the supporters of the opponent. Clinton, imo, can not win without a "will of the people" argument, and the pledged delegate count will not be that. It must be the popular vote. More . .

Jay Cost and Michael Barone have made it fashionable in the Establishment Media to discuss Hillary winning the popular vote. And the Media (other than NBC of course) also seem to accept that this is a fair metric for arguing that Clinton should be the nominee.

This is Clinton's best shot. It so happens that it is also the Democratic Party's best shot. I understand that Barack Obama will not want to sacrifice even one percent of his chances to gain the nomination - but he should consider the bigger picture. What good is securing the nomination if your chances of winning are dramatically reduced by how you won it? The same holds for Clinton.

This makes sense for everyone, especially the Democratic Party. But it makes the MOST sense for Hillary Clinton. She captures the absolute high ground if she argues for counting all the votes and making the votes the metric for who will be the nominee. She should do this. In my opinion, she MUST do this.

NOTE- Comments closed.

< MI And FL Represented On Credentials Committee? | Poll: Hillary Outperforms Obama Against McCain in OH, FL, PA >
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  • Display: Sort:
    Hillary Should Say (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Athena on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:00:06 AM EST
    "Unlike Senator Obama, I'm not satisfied with a nomination based on the votes of 48 states.  I want to be the nominee of all 50 states."

    I thought some states don't matter. (none / 0) (#131)
    by DodgeIND on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:07:06 AM EST
    Wednesday, February 20th: As Clinton strategist Mark Penn explained yesterday, Wisconsin has a lot of independent voters, so it doesn't really matter. And Hawaii is practically Obama's home state, so it obviously doesn't matter. Anyway, as Penn said recently, "winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election." It's apparently not even a sign of who can win the Democratic nomination -- at least not when the victories are Obama's.

    http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1714840,00.html

    Or from her financial chairman,


    "I'm telling donors and supporters: Don't be overly concerned about what goes on in the remainder of the month of February because these are not states teed up well for us," Mr. Nemazee said.

    NYT

    I all the states matter when it's only in your advantage.


    [ Parent ]

    First rule (none / 0) (#203)
    by ColumbiaDuck on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:06:32 PM EST
    Of learning to deal with the MSM is to know that a paraphrase is not a quote.  Note that all those "doesn't matters" are from the reporter.  

    [ Parent ]
    Ah. Finally some advice (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by oculus on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:03:01 AM EST
    for the Clinton campaign.  If I ran the Hillary Clinton campaign, I would also advise the candidate to tell her spokespeople to stop talking for attribution about Obama's relationship with Wright.  

    Why shouldn't they? (none / 0) (#11)
    by madamab on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:08:54 AM EST
    Isn't that the reason why people think he is unelectable? Why is this topic off-limits?

    Or should they just not admit they are doing it? Just making sure I understand. :-)

    [ Parent ]

    Because, in the unlikely event (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by oculus on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:17:52 AM EST
    Clinton is the nominee, she'll need African American voters.  Ickes told Greg Sargeant that Ickes was constantly reminding the Super-Ds about Wright.  I say, go ahead and remind them, but don't publicly proclaim you are doing so.

    [ Parent ]
    Well (5.00 / 3) (#44)
    by Steve M on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:26:01 AM EST
    The superdelegates tend to talk about the arguments they hear.  You can't make an argument to the superdelegates and expect it to be a big secret.

    While I see your point, there are an awful lot of Clinton supporters who are offended by the electability arguments the Obama campaign constantly makes regarding Clinton, and no one seems to care about that.  

    [ Parent ]

    Um, I believe that ship has sailed... (none / 0) (#48)
    by madamab on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:28:02 AM EST
    since Obama smeared the Clintons as racists. The AA vote, in large part, is not going to Hillary now.

    I automatically assumed that Hillary's campaign was discussing Wright with the Super-D's. I'd be surprised if anyone thought otherwise, and frankly, I'd rather be told the truth about that type of thing.

    I recognize I am probably more cynical than the average voter, though, so you could be right about the tactics being wrong. ;-)

    [ Parent ]

    That's ridiculous (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by AF on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:29:57 AM EST
    If Hillary is the nominee she will get the A-A vote.

    Turnout might be low, though, if the resolution is acrimonious.

    [ Parent ]

    I agree with you (none / 0) (#70)
    by madamab on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:37:07 AM EST
    and you call me ridiculous? I said,

    The AA vote, in large part, is not going to Hillary now.

    You say there might be low turnout in the GE if the resolution is acrimonious. IF?  

    My stepmother is AA. She will NOT vote for Hillary under any circumstances, literally, because Mark Penn said the word "cocaine." Yes, Hillary is a racist and that's that.

    If Hillary is the nominee, we will have a big problem getting the AA voters. That is 100% on Obama's shoulders, and it's one of the reasons I'll have to hold my nose, ears and eyes to vote for him if he's the nominee.

    [ Parent ]

    Sorry (none / 0) (#86)
    by AF on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:44:17 AM EST
    I thought you were saying that ship had sailed in that Hillary will not get the A-A vote in the general election.  I think she can, if her nomination is perceived as fair.  African Americans can hold their noses too!

    [ Parent ]
    Do you think there is any way (none / 0) (#98)
    by madamab on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:49:44 AM EST
    to convince Obama supporters in general that a Hillary win would be fair?

    If so, I would love to hear it. No snark, I promise.

    I do think she will win the popular vote, especially if MI/FL are counted, but not by a sweeping margin. So I don't think that alone would convince many Obama supporters.


    [ Parent ]

    IMO (none / 0) (#107)
    by cmugirl on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:54:04 AM EST
    No - just as I think if Obama wins (without MI/FL) and the rest of the primaries, HRC supporters will not see him as legitimate.

    I read yesterday one Florida Republican official who was chuckling about this situation and said Democrats can never invoke 2000 ever again if they don't get this straightened out.

    [ Parent ]

    This Obama supporter (none / 0) (#113)
    by AF on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:58:55 AM EST
    Would consider Hillary's nomination fair in just about any realistic scenario.  Same goes for Obama.

    The only scenario that I wouldn't like would be if she took control of the credentials committee, and seated the MI and FL delegations based on the January votes.

    Similarly, I wouldn't like it if Obama resorted to holding the FL and MI delegations out of the convention.

    Those are the nightmare scenarios everyone's trying to avoid, and I think we will avoid them.

    [ Parent ]

    I hope you are typical (none / 0) (#122)
    by madamab on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:03:28 AM EST
    of Obama supporters, then! :-)

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah (none / 0) (#128)
    by Claw on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:06:17 AM EST
    I think if she's close(ish) in delegates and wins the pop. vote, she will still get a pretty good AA turnout.  If she doesn't win the pop. vote or isn't within 100 delegates, or close to that range, many AA's and other Obama supporters will consider the nomination stolen, the media will have a field day, and we'll end up electing McCain who can't seem to get anything right about anything these days.
    I've explained my reasoning behind the 100 number before but I think it's important to repeat--It's taken on kind of a magical significance for the media and, psychologically, 100 or 100+ just seems like a much bigger lead than 99.  That's why people don't try to sell you things for $30. They try to sell you things for $29.99.


    [ Parent ]
    I would consider Hillary's nomination (none / 0) (#185)
    by independent voter on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:53:56 AM EST
    fair if she were to win the pledged delegate count and the popular vote. (including current results for FL, but not Michigan)

    [ Parent ]
    Is that really what he said? (none / 0) (#150)
    by nycstray on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:22:49 AM EST
    "Ickes told Greg Sargeant that Ickes was constantly reminding the Super-Ds about Wright."

    Did he say constantly reminding? Or that it was part of the discussions/comes up in the discussions?

    [ Parent ]

    Here's the interview, for which (none / 0) (#204)
    by oculus on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:11:56 PM EST
    BTD previously provided a link:

    ICKES

    [ Parent ]

    If you were running Hillary's campaign (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by riddlerandy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:05:54 AM EST
    she  would probably be winning, and wouldn;t have to deal with the issues she is dealing with now.

    The actual quote, not the summary, is... (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by madamab on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:07:23 AM EST
    When I asked Ickes if the Hillary campaign would still try to woo super-dels even if she was behind in the popular vote counting Florida and Michigan, he said: "I think being ahead in the popular vote is an important factor. I don't think it's dispositive...if at the end of the process she's running very slightly behind in the delegates overall, the popular vote vote will be important. I don't think it's absolutely critical."

    I don't see anything to disagree with in that statement. The popular vote is very important, but so is electability, which is based on what is happening NOW (i.e., the Wright factor).


    "both candidates agree" (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by rebrane on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:48:48 AM EST
    ...both candidates agree that the winner of the national popular vote will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.

    How asinine is that? The time to change the way you count the votes is BEFORE the election, not AFTER it. Does anybody seriously think BTD would be endorsing this Calvinball play if the situation was reversed?

    Great idea -- let's decide the election based on a metric which has never been used before, which was never proposed or even mentioned until it became clear that one candidate would benefit, which you can't even measure but can only estimate, and which assumes that literally zero voters in Michigan prefer Obama! That sounds like truly the most fair option.

    Snore (5.00 / 3) (#103)
    by Steve M on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:52:50 AM EST
    I see "Calvinball" has officially become the Kool Kids talking point of the day.

    [ Parent ]
    gosh, I wish I could be one of the kool kids (none / 0) (#133)
    by DandyTIger on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:10:12 AM EST
    but I just can't seem to shake this nagging affinity for democracy. Maybe one day I can hate democracy just like them. Snark.

    [ Parent ]
    both candidates can (none / 0) (#124)
    by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:04:09 AM EST
    agree all they want, how is that fair to the states? what if they don't agree? what if their voters don't agree.

    I live in MN, we had a caucus, I caucused for the first time in my life, but now you say to bad thats the way my state does their primaries I am screwed out of counting in the popular vote?

    and people actually want to look me in the face and say its fair?

    [ Parent ]

    No, you would be counted (none / 0) (#127)
    by Democratic Cat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:06:08 AM EST
    You cast a vote, you get counted.

    [ Parent ]
    how in a popular vote? (5.00 / 1) (#132)
    by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:09:51 AM EST
    there are not popular vote totals reported for caucus states, so how would I be counted?

    they would guess?

    my whole point is no matter what happens it will be unfair to someone.

    and as BTD noted, Hillary's campaign could still pursue the SDs even if she lost the popular vote, because they too know its not a metric for the primary, sure you can use it for arguments, but no it is not the deciding factor in nomination, its not the measuring stick. everyone agreed to the measuring stick, we call them delegates.

    if now we dont like it thats fine, we can change it for the next election, but Hillary doesn't get to agree to everything, follow them for 6 months then decide you know these rules don't work anymore lets change them.

    [ Parent ]

    Wrong (none / 0) (#135)
    by Democratic Cat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:12:16 AM EST
    My understanding is that caucus states do have the vote totals. They report the delegate counts, but they do have the information on the votes people cast.

    [ Parent ]
    really? (none / 0) (#139)
    by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:16:23 AM EST
    because everything I ever see that does counts popular votes uses a "*" and says caucus estimates.

    why are they saying its an estimate if they real totals are known?

    [ Parent ]

    but they have them.  It's been discussed in other threads here.

    [ Parent ]
    The real total have notbeen released (none / 0) (#157)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:30:28 AM EST
    But they have them.

    [ Parent ]
    Counting Caucus Votes vs Primary Votes (none / 0) (#217)
    by jsj20002 on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 05:20:53 PM EST
    How do you compare the number of caucus goers who are generally active party participants to the much larger number of voters that generally participate in a primary election?  Does this mean that an Iowa or Nevada caucus voter counts much, much less in the popular vote than a Michigan primary voter (like me) who voted in an unconstitutional primary election that also violated the rules of the Democratic National Committee?  Do you adjust for whether a primary is an open primary or a closed primary?  Does this mean an Iowa or Nevada caucus goer who is an active member of the Democratic Party has exactly the same representation in the national popular vote count as a cross-over Limbaugh Republican?  Seems you have a real apples and oranges problem when you say that the popular vote count means more than the delegate count if you have deliberately set out to discount the popular votes of those from caucus states.  And, by the way, since Hillary won the Texas popular vote and Barack won the Texas caucuses, does this mean you discount the overall rather modest advantage that he gained in total Texas delegates when the two systems were combined as intended? Who has the authority to change the rules after the various state parties (except two) have followed the rules and made their preferences known?  

    [ Parent ]
    It is you who is wrong (none / 0) (#149)
    by rebrane on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:20:49 AM EST
    Maybe Iowa Democrats do have the information for how many people voted for which candidate somewhere, but they have never released this information publically. Ditto Nevada, Maine and Washington.

    [ Parent ]
    They have not releaqsed the totals (none / 0) (#156)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:29:57 AM EST
    but they have them. It is YOU who are wrong.

    [ Parent ]
    He was wrong (none / 0) (#166)
    by rebrane on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:36:15 AM EST
    to say the comment he was replying to was wrong. It was right.

    [ Parent ]
    Um (none / 0) (#136)
    by Steve M on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:13:28 AM EST
    Your vote would count in the popular vote, just like everyone else's would.

    If your state had held a primary, and you had voted, your vote would still count just the same.  One person, one vote.

    No one is suggesting your vote wouldn't be counted.

    [ Parent ]

    Hurting caucus states is the point (none / 0) (#141)
    by rebrane on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:16:49 AM EST
    The Clinton campaign has not made any secret of the fact that they don't think caucuses should count. This new popular vote metric is basically just a sneaky restatement of 'don't count caucus states', which all have much lower turnout than primary states.

    I already hear you saying "well, they decided to have caucuses instead of primaries" and indeed they did. But maybe if they had known in advance that national popular vote was going to become the only 'legitimate' metric, they would've changed to primaries instead.

    This is just another consequence of the simple rule that you cannot change the rules in the middle of an election. Otherwise, what you get is Calvinball.

    [ Parent ]

    Ah yes (none / 0) (#145)
    by Steve M on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:19:01 AM EST
    Chris Matthews, stealth spokesman for the Clinton campaign.

    [ Parent ]
    Where do you get teeh statement re MI? (none / 0) (#125)
    by Democratic Cat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:05:08 AM EST
    I don't see how looking at the nationwide popular vote negates the Obama supporters in MI. With a revote there, it allows those voters to actually state their preference.  Right now, they aren't included in the calculation at all, so not only are there no Obama supporters in MI, there are no Clinton supporters either.  And in November, we can expect the same.

    [ Parent ]
    people were told for months (none / 0) (#134)
    by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:11:13 AM EST
    it wouldn't count, after a while they believed it, so they went and voted in the GOP primary, there since it did count.

    a re-vote wont let them come back and vote, and THIS is why Obama opposed the MI revote, he says they should be allowed to come back and vote,

    the DNC says no its against the rules.

    [ Parent ]

    BS (none / 0) (#137)
    by Democratic Cat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:15:42 AM EST
    Sorry, that's such BS. Dems believed their votes wouldn't count, so they decided they should become Republicans. I find it hard to believe that happened in any great numbers. In any case, if they cast a vote in the GOP primary, they have been counted. You don't get to vote twice.

    [ Parent ]
    its not fair (none / 0) (#147)
    by TruthMatters on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:20:10 AM EST
    to tell them for months their vote won't count, so that when they go and vote in the GOP primary since it was an open primary,

    to come back a month later and say "GOTCHA, the votes will count, or we will do a re-vote, but those of you who crossed over, well you never should have believed us when we said MI wouldn't count"

    but I am sorry, how hard did Florida fight to not get their delgates stripped?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpHuQi17EaE

    you wanna blame people, blame these guys

    [ Parent ]

    Enough of the misinformation (none / 0) (#202)
    by standingup on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:02:50 PM EST
    on Florida.  There were people fighting in Florida to have the situation resolved.  Not everyone was able to come to an agreement but you can hardly state there was no fight when there were three lawsuits filed to challenge the decision and change the outcome.  Stop using the examples that are convenient for your argument but do not reflect the truth.  

    [ Parent ]
    What's more likely (none / 0) (#154)
    by rebrane on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:28:05 AM EST
    is that some not insignificant number of people heard that the election wouldn't count and so decided not to take the time to vote.

    Treating the results as binding is grossly unfair to these people. Changing the rules of the election after the election has been held is always unfair to the electorate.

    [ Parent ]

    Last time I checked (none / 0) (#214)
    by MaxUS on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 03:41:58 PM EST
    re:The time to change the way you count the votes is BEFORE the election, not AFTER it.

    The "rules" are clear that the only way for the pledged delegates to be the determining factor in selecting the Democratic Nominee is for any candidate to reach the threshold of 50%+1 of ALL available delegates.

    Regardless of how distasteful anyone may find them, those are the rules. Period.

    Superdelegates are unpledged, as are some state delegates who are selected through the very undemocratic caucus process. That's the reality.

    Rules are rules regardless of whom they favor. It happens that certain rules do a disservice to Party goals (FL/MI not being seated) and must be dealt with in a way that it doesn't hurt the party.

    Wooing unpledged SDs may or may not hurt the Party's chances in November, but it is their (individual SD's) decision to make.

    [ Parent ]

    I agree totally (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by esmense on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:19:16 AM EST
    I am one of many women, a long time Democratic activist, who doesn't care as much about whether Clinton wins as I do about how she wins -- or loses. And how Democratic party leaders treat her campaign and her supporters.

    Any attempt by party leaders to force her from the race, or to manipulate a win for Obama based on a greater "electability" argument that has not been proven by votes will be seen by me not as a detrimental move against a particular candidate, but as a betrayal of the party's once assumed commitment to women and their political equality. That, I believe, is an incredibly important issue -- which party leaders do not seem to have awakened to yet.

    They need to allow this process to play out in the fairest possible way. So that women, whether they are Clinton supporters or not, can be assured that the party's stated commitment to equality in terms of political participation and representation is not just lip service, but something all the party's leaders -- not just women or Clinton partisans -- can be counted on to energetically defend.

    I know a lot of people see this campaign merely in terms of which candidate is preferred -- which is "liked" or "hated" more than another -- but in terms of personal character, these are both fine people. In terms of judging how they would perform in office, one has a well-examined record on which to make a judgement, the other does not. Strong arguments for their success in the general election can be made for each one. Viable arguments against their success in the general election can be made for each one. Neither would be a shoo-in against McCain. Neither would be a disaster for the party in November. Both would represent social change that should be celebrated. Although the election of a woman would represent much deeper, and perhaps not yet achievable, cultural change, and require a bigger adjustment in deeply held cultural attitudes.

    For me, the factors at play in this campaign that have been most disturbing are the ones that have made me doubt the commitment of the Democratic party to women. I am not as concerned about which of these candidates wins or loses as I am about whether I can continue to believe that this is a party that takes me seriously, respects me, and genuinely represents me.

    I know I am not the only woman for whom questions about the party's commitment to women, and respect for their place in the party itself, have been raised this campaign season. I think party leaders must start answering those questions now -- by making it clear that the remainder of this process must play out with scrupulous fairness.

    If they don't, I think they will be setting on a course with bad long term consequences.

    I don't think HRC needs to be this radical... (5.00 / 1) (#195)
    by outsider on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:22:11 PM EST
    The problem, as I see it, with this suggestion is that it opens her up to accusations of advocating a massive change in the rules mid-game.  But she can stick to the established rules whilst making a very reasonable case like this (which is not that different from what she is currently saying):

    (A) There is absolutely no good reason why the SDs ought to ratify the pledged delegate count (Pelosi-style).  It would make no sense.  In fact it would not be an improvement, in democratic terms, over the supers their conscience, since, as we know, delegate lead does not = most popular candidate.

    (B) Nobody is taking part in this process for the good of their health.  They are looking to select the most promising candidate for the GE.  SDs have a duty to choose such a candidate.

    (C) How do they decide who that is?  All things being equal (i.e. no massive scandals for either candidate) two factors seem most important: ability to carry key swing states, and ability to win the popular vote.

    (D) I have won all the key states except BO's homeground.  If I win the popular vote as well (inc. Flo. and Mich.) I ought to be the candidate, and SDs should do what they are meant to and vote for me.  If I don't win the popular vote, I understand it will be inappropriate for me to be the nominee - I'll step aside in that case.

    I think this is a much better argument.  Caucus states cannot claim to be disenfranchised here, even in part - they chose their delegates, and sent them to the committee.  It's just that their delegates did not hold the deciding say at the convention - the supers did.  But all states knew this might happen from day one.


    Should the popular vote (none / 0) (#205)
    by 1jpb on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:15:56 PM EST
    Well (none / 0) (#208)
    by Steve M on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:43:41 PM EST
    It's easy to count the popular vote in Washington, since they had a primary.

    [ Parent ]
    Some people (none / 0) (#212)
    by 1jpb on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 02:27:32 PM EST
    voted in the caucus that counted, but not the later primary that everyone knew had no impact, but BO still won.  

    I am exactly such a person.

    [ Parent ]

    If I ran Hillary's campaign (1.00 / 1) (#9)
    by magster on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:08:23 AM EST
    I'd advise her to drop out for the good of the party.  I wonder if they'll hire me....

    On a more serious note, since Hillary is in for the duration, should Hillary and Obama do something jointly, like commercials, to campaign against McCain?  I hate how he's getting a free ride.

    Only IF (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:09:12 AM EST
    they accept the Cuomo proposal - which I would ALSO recommend the Clinton Campaign endorse.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh. (none / 0) (#13)
    by madamab on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:09:52 AM EST
    I like the way you think. :-)

    [ Parent ]
    For the good of Obama, it's best Clinton stay (none / 0) (#62)
    by Davidson on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:33:50 AM EST
    Clinton is the only buffer or main reason why he's getting such solid, good press coverage.  The longer she's in it, the better off he'll be.  The moment she's gone, the floodgates will open.

    [ Parent ]
    Joint ads are an excellent idea (none / 0) (#67)
    by Same As It Ever Was on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:36:55 AM EST
    and would help to unify the party after the convention.

    [ Parent ]
    The problem with your statement is that (none / 0) (#2)
    by TalkRight on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:02:24 AM EST
    it is good one, but not practical from campaign standpoint, since it would not cover all scenario .. Ickes is trying to cover all bases for the just in case scenario.

    There is no reason (none / 0) (#56)
    by standingup on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:31:07 AM EST
    or necessity for Ickes to publicly discuss every possible scenario for the campaign to win.  All that accomplishes is setting up the campaign for allegations that they are willing to do anything to win which translates to winning unfairly.  Ickes and the rest should stop the public brainstorming and keep the focus on issues and explaining why Clinton is the better candidate.  

    [ Parent ]
    I guess you are right.. but (none / 0) (#116)
    by TalkRight on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:59:40 AM EST
    the problem is that everything they say is made to look and twisted for the worse.. take for instance when Ickes acknowledges that the issue of Wright comes up when talking to SD's.. this is not to say that it is HE who always brings it up.. (what he meant to convey is that SD's care about Wright issue!) Also on FL/MI all he was saying is that Hillary will fight till the end (even if they are not counted .. 'cause she thinks she would be the best candidate).. but that is interpreted as thought he is DOESN'T care about FL/MI.. I just don't know how we can cast those words for him or for Hillary's campaign.

    [ Parent ]
    You've hit the nail on the head (none / 0) (#167)
    by standingup on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:37:12 AM EST
    The probability that anything that is said can be distorted is reason enough to refuse to comment or to at least have strict, non-confrontational talking points that each person stick to when talking with the press.  I didn't interpret Ickes words quite the way that many have but if he had not gone there, the opportunity would have not been there either.  

    [ Parent ]
    Sorry, popular vote is a very very dumb idea (none / 0) (#4)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:04:16 AM EST
    What about those states where no popular vote was tallied? You are disenfranchising those voters, who played by the rules, in favor of voters from the states who didn't. Nonsense.

    You mean the states (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by andgarden on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:07:55 AM EST
    that intentionally disenfranchised voters by holding caucuses instead of primaries? Well, we CAN get popular vote figures for those states, they just won't be as big as for those states holding primaries.

    [ Parent ]
    Disenfranchised voters? (none / 0) (#17)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:12:56 AM EST
    Choosing to exercise the First Amendment right of association via caucus instead of popular vote does not equal disenfranchisement. The core of enfranchisement is the constitutional right of association. What Tweety's proposal does is negate the associations chosen by the caucus only states and thus is analytically indistinguishable from disenfranchisement.

    I can't believe people would advocate this just to help Hillary.

    [ Parent ]

    Then what is your beef? (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:17:38 AM EST
    If it is not disenfranchising then how can counting their votes be disenfranchising? Your failed Logic 01.

    [ Parent ]
    Look at the Washington State turnout (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by andgarden on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:17:40 AM EST
    See also Texas. Caucuses obviously disenfranchise.

    [ Parent ]
    What voter is being disenfranchised? (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:05:10 AM EST
    Your comment is nonsensical.

    [ Parent ]
    The voters of caucus states (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:08:41 AM EST
    Those who chose their delegates by caucus instead of popular vote. You know, from

    Iowa (25-14)
    Nevada (13-12)
    Alaska (9-4)
    Colorado (35-20)
    Kansas (23-9)
    Idaho (15-3)
    Minnesota (48-24)
    North Dakota (8-5)
    Nebraska (16-8)
    Maine (15-9)
    Hawaii (14-6
    Wyoming (7-5)

    No popular vote tallies in those states. Had those states known that the popular vote would be the deciding metric, do you think they would have caucused? That's crazy.

    [ Parent ]

    Wow (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by Steve M on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:17:43 AM EST
    States that chose an election method that prevents countless people from participating really have no right to complain.

    [ Parent ]
    I would be willing to consider (none / 0) (#27)
    by andgarden on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:18:49 AM EST
    revotes! ;-)

    [ Parent ]
    Not possible, and not necessary (none / 0) (#89)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:46:41 AM EST
    The Clinton campaign new the rules going in. Harold Ickes voted to disregard the FL and MI votes. Frankly it's outrageous that anybody would suggest throwing the nominating process into complete disarray by forcing all caucusing states to hold a new popular vote or face the fact that their delegate selection process is going to be negated.

    [ Parent ]
    Indeed (none / 0) (#46)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:26:26 AM EST
    That IS your argument. I propose revotes, in complaince with the existing DNC rules. Like Obama, you oppose revotes in FL and MI. thus you are willing to put Obama's fortunes ahead of the interests of the Democratic Party.

    But no matter, you are suspended today. Comment no further.

    [ Parent ]

    Um (none / 0) (#58)
    by Steve M on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:32:03 AM EST
    That might be a valid argument, but it's a completely separate and unrelated point.

    States that knowingly chose a system which prevents many people from voting have no legitimate basis to complain that they expected their disenfranchising system would count just as much as the inclusive systems employed in other states.

    [ Parent ]

    As BTD says (none / 0) (#66)
    by andgarden on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:35:43 AM EST
    holding new primaries in all of the states that held caucuses (plus MI & FL) would solve this problem.

    I think we won't otherwise have a legitimate nominee.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, they do have a basis to complain (none / 0) (#95)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:48:51 AM EST
    The system was allowed by the rules going into the contest, and under it their delegates get weighted equally with every other state's delegates. Changing the rules in the middle of the game so as to essentially nullify their delegate selection process is an assault of the highest order upon the First Amendment right of association.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think this is a first amendment issue (none / 0) (#109)
    by jeffinalabama on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:54:13 AM EST
    The parties are not the government, but are private organizations. As such, the government would have nothing to do with barring any association.

    [ Parent ]
    It is a First Amendment issue (none / 0) (#117)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:00:23 AM EST
    and it is an issue at the core of the First Amendment. I don't have time right now to google up some citations for you. But I was a law clerk for the federal district court judge who heard the "Stevenson vs. Illinois" case in 1986 or 87. In that case the candidate for governor wanted to ditch the Democratic Party and run for governor as an independent even though he won the democratic primary. I can promise you that in the voluminous research I did into election law at the time, the idea that associational interests of the First Amendment were at the core of election law is not controversial in the slightest.

    [ Parent ]
    You have no argument (5.00 / 0) (#79)
    by badger on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:41:12 AM EST
    What you're actually arguing for is special credit for states with low turnout. There are two essential differences between caucuses and primaries:

    1. No secret ballot
    2. Caucus turnout is substantially lower than primary turnout

    Basically the rules for participating in a caucus are the same as the rules for participating in a primary. If fewer voters choose to caucus than vote, why should those caucus states get special treatmentin counting the popular vote?

    The only possible answer is "because it helps Obama win". That isn't much of a principle.


    [ Parent ]

    I'm not saying these states (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:51:28 AM EST
    should get special treatment in counting the popular vote. I am saying that the popular vote should not be counted as a determining metric because it wasn't the established metric going into the primary race.

    Had everybody known that the popular vote was going to be the deciding metric, then no state would rationally have chosen to caucus.

    [ Parent ]

    The only (none / 0) (#177)
    by americanincanada on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:42:43 AM EST
    demanding metric going into the race is that a candidate wins when they cross a certain threshold. if no candidate crosses that line then the SDs are there to make the decision in any way and using any metric they see fit.

    Popular vote has long been held in high regard in this country and our party, especially since Gore won the popular vote and yet lost the presidency. How did that work out for us? It was, after all, the rulz.

    It is also within DNC rules to seat the Michigana nd Florida delegates as is and also to have revotes.

    [ Parent ]

    My plan does not disenfranchise them (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:10:16 AM EST
    The caucuses disenfranchised them.l There is nothing about what I propose that disenfranchises them.

    The Pledged Delegate system with caucuses did so.

    [ Parent ]

    No. (none / 0) (#19)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:16:41 AM EST
    See my response to Andgarden. It's about the right of association. The caucus states chose to exercise that First Amendment right via caucuses. This was allowed by the rules. Now, you want to change the rules after the fact so that their choice of association doesn't count. That's unbelievably wrong.

    [ Parent ]
    That is a nonsequitor to your charge (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:19:10 AM EST
    It is an indictment of the caucus system in fact.

    [ Parent ]
    Of course it matters (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:24:58 AM EST
    Are you arguing for revotes by primary in caucus states? I am all for it!

    I am positive you are not arguing that.

    I am for counting the votes that were cast - in the systems that were in place.

    I am NOT for counting the existing FL and MI votes. I want revotes. If you want to expand the idea to revotes in all the caucus states, I am game.

    [ Parent ]

    Revotes (none / 0) (#181)
    by rebrane on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:46:06 AM EST
    Are you arguing for revotes by primary in caucus states? I am all for it!

    Of course you are. But in elections, you can't take a mulligan.

    One thing that's for sure is that a lot of the states which held caucuses this year will hold primary elections in 2012.

    [ Parent ]

    You keep missing the point. (none / 0) (#47)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:26:55 AM EST
    Voting, whether via the voting booth or in a caucus, is about exercising one's First Amendment right of association. Negating either is disenfranchising.

    States new going into the primaries that they could enfranchise their citizens, i.e., afford them their right of association, via either the caucus system or via a voting booth. Some chose the caucus system.

    Now you want to penalize those states who played by the rules by making the popular vote the deciding metric. That's Calvinball at its finest.

    [ Parent ]

    I am penalizing them how? (none / 0) (#54)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:30:49 AM EST
    Because the system they chose disenfranchised their own voters?

    I do not follow what you are arguing here. I am counting the votes that were cast.

    Now, if you want to argue that the caucus states should revote then I might see your point. You seem to not be arguing for that.

    [ Parent ]

    If the states had known before January... (5.00 / 1) (#163)
    by rebrane on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:34:13 AM EST
    that delegates were going to be thrown out the window and popular vote would become the only true metric, I imagine that a lot of them would've decided to switch from caucuses to primaries. But they didn't, and now that they've already voted, BTD wants to change the rules specifically in order to dilute their impact on the race, and only because they went for the other candidate.

    I don't know why you think anybody would go for this, except for people who value Hillary's candidacy more than integrity. You can't change the way you count votes in the middle of an election.

    [ Parent ]

    Caucus or primary doesn't matter (5.00 / 1) (#207)
    by esmense on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:24:19 PM EST
    The issue isn't state representation -- that has already been addressed by the assigning of delegates based on the popular vote in each state, whether that state voted by primary or caucus.

    Now, we have a different problem to solve -- the problem created by the fact that that process did not (or, at least at this point looks unlikely to) produce the number of delegates needed to win for either of the remaining candidates.

    That means some additional metric must be considered to maintain fairness, and prevent the nomination from looking like something cooked up by party leaders rather than something that expresses the will of the rank and file. Using the majority will of the rank and file, based on the total number of people who chose to vote -- no matter whether they voted in a primary or caucus -- is a very valid additional way of determining the popular will.

    The fact is, even if every state had determined their state winner by primary, or by caucus, once brought to the same impasse we now find ourselves in, states like Montana and Wyoming would provide fewer votes to count than states like Pennsylvania and South Carolina. But would anyone try to claim that was disenfranchisement? I don't think so.

    [ Parent ]

    The system didn't disenfranchise their voters (none / 0) (#68)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:37:06 AM EST
    Each voter was free to caucus and choose a delegate via caucusing. Now, you're disenfranchising them by saying that their method of selecting delegates is going to be overridden by a new Calvinball metric -- the popular vote.

    If those states new GOING IN to the primary season that the popular vote was going to be the deciding metric, they wouldn't have caucused. Changing the rules midstream is what is disenfranchising them.

    [ Parent ]

    Wait up (5.00 / 1) (#105)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:53:18 AM EST
    So you are saying a system which produced  not even a tenth of turnout of a normal election is not disenfranchising - EVEN THOUGH you are arguing that taking into account the ACTUAL VOTE of the caucus DOES disenfranchise because, well the caucus disenfranchised voters.

    You have argued yourself into a Gordian Knot you know.

    [ Parent ]

    What I am arguing is that (none / 0) (#151)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:23:50 AM EST
    the DNC approved three different delegate selection systems for states to use going into the primary season: popular vote, caucus, or a hybrid of both. In addition, these could be open or closed.

    Each state's party leaders chose how to exercise its state's rights of association to select its delegates to the national convention. They did so knowing that caucuses would result in far less turnout than popular votes. For whatever reason they selected caucuses anyway, with knowledge that their delegates would weigh every bit as significantly as the delegates from other states regardless of the methods used by those other states.

    A nominee is selected by delegate count just like a president is selected by the electoral college.

    In other words, raw turnout (on a national level) was irrelevant to the nominee selection process.

    We can criticize the caucus system for the next 100 years, but that does not change one inescapable fact: the rules going in allowed caucuses, and the delegates chosen by those caucuses would be accorded the same weight accorded delegates chosen by popular vote.

    To now substitute national popular vote as the deciding metric practically negates the delegates of caucus states.

    [ Parent ]

    One other factor (5.00 / 1) (#201)
    by standingup on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 12:52:43 PM EST
    you are leaving out of the discussion is the supredelegates.  The DNC approved a system where superdelegates are allowed to consider the popular vote and the disproportionate apportionment of delegates in caucuses.  The superdelegates can offset the problems with the caucus system if they choose to do so with their votes.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yes (none / 0) (#209)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:47:21 PM EST
    Their discretion is not constrained by rule, but is constrained by political wisdom.

    [ Parent ]
    I repeat irrelevamnt to YOU (none / 0) (#168)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:37:12 AM EST
    Relevant to anyone who cares about voter rights and not disenfranchising the voters.

    The Super Delegates will decide this. I am proposing a method that would be viewed legitimately by MOST voters.

    Only fanatical Obama supporters could possibly object. Reasonable ones would realize that this would HELP Obama to unify the Party and reassert a basic Democratic principle.

    As for what is RELEVANT to the Super Delegates and the Candidates, pssst, it is not in the rules.


    [ Parent ]

    Right, because caucuses are just peachy (none / 0) (#74)
    by andgarden on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:39:10 AM EST
    It's a good thing we have civility rules here, because my inclination is to hurl invective at you for even suggesting that.

    [ Parent ]
    Where did I suggest caucuses were peachy? (none / 0) (#153)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:25:23 AM EST
    You are putting words in my mouth and threatening to hurl invective at me for the straw man you created?

    [ Parent ]
    Whatever (none / 0) (#206)
    by ColumbiaDuck on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 01:16:21 PM EST
    The pledged delegate system is set up with biases to caucuses - namely that each delegate from a caucus state represents a much smaller number of voters than a delegate from a primary state.  If the national popular vote corrects this imbalance, even more reason for supers to consider it.

    [ Parent ]
    The popular vote matters (none / 0) (#49)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:28:25 AM EST
    in each state that, going in, made it the deciding metric for choosing delegates. The national popular vote was never a relevant metric going in and shouldn't be made one this late in the game.

    [ Parent ]
    Ah, the "only pledged delegates matter" (none / 0) (#55)
    by andgarden on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:31:06 AM EST
    argument. Welcome to three months ago.

    [ Parent ]
    In most of the world outside (none / 0) (#63)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:34:28 AM EST
    TalkLeft, yes, only pledged delegates (and superdelegates) matter.

    [ Parent ]
    Your parenthetical is the point (none / 0) (#110)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:54:51 AM EST
    of this exercise. The SDs will decide the nominee.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes they will (none / 0) (#155)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:29:01 AM EST
    So the question becomes whether the superdelegates should place controlling weight on the national popular vote. The answer to that question is no.

    See this diary.

    [ Parent ]

    YOUR answer is No (5.00 / 1) (#172)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:38:41 AM EST
    Obviously mine, and that of a growing number of people, is YES.

    [ Parent ]
    Well, it's the wrong answer (none / 0) (#180)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:44:56 AM EST
    It ignores the rules going in and it doesn't measure electability accurately enough to be given controlling weight.

    [ Parent ]
    In each state it matters? (none / 0) (#108)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 10:54:08 AM EST
    But it does not matter on a national level? To you perhaps. Where do you come up with this stuff?

    [ Parent ]
    It's hardly controversial (none / 0) (#164)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:34:54 AM EST
    I'm surprised you can't see the large magnitude of measurement error of electability in the popular vote metric you are advocating here. That's what it's supposed to be about, right? Electability?

    Look at this diary for starters.

    What does the popular vote from a state that is absolutely certain to go red, or absolutely certain to go blue, matter in terms of electability? You have to look beneath the surface of this popular vote issue to see how flawed it is. The DNC recognized this by the elaborate formula it devised to apportion the number of delegates to each state.

    [ Parent ]

    It is ludicrous (5.00 / 1) (#171)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:38:04 AM EST
    Not controversial. It is silly. Indeed, not even Obama himself would argue what you arguing.

    [ Parent ]
    What is ludicrous (none / 0) (#176)
    by digdugboy on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:42:16 AM EST
    is the notion that the rules going in should all be cast aside so that now the nationwide popular vote is the deciding factor. Indeed, not even Clinton herself would argue what you are arguing.

    [ Parent ]
    What rule have I cast aside? (none / 0) (#184)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 11:51:57 AM EST
    Can you identify it?

    [ Parent ]