Hillary Clinton was on This Week with George Stephanopoulus this morning. I received a transcript from the show by e-mail. Here's what she had to say about pledged delegates and the popular vote.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Despite this record, Senator Obama getting more than 90 percent of the African-American vote. Perhaps that's to be expected. It's virtually impossible for you to overtake him now in the pledged delegates.

And a lot of people in the African-American community, including the third highest ranking member of the House, Jim Clyburn, say that, if you overturn the will of the pledged delegates, it is going to cause an irreparable breach with the African-American community. Isn't that a problem?

Hillary's answer is below:

Update (TL): The linked article is from Newsweek and is about why Oprah Winfrey left the Trinity Church.

*****

With friends and campaign advisers like this:

[Oprah] Winfrey was a member of Trinity United from 1984 to 1986, and she continued to attend off and on into the early to the mid-1990s. But then she stopped. A major reason—but by no means the only reason—was the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. . . . Friends of Sen. Barack Obama, whose relationship with Wright has rocked his bid for the White House, insist that it would be unfair to compare Winfrey's decision to leave Trinity United with his own decision to stay. "[His] reasons for attending Trinity were totally different," said one campaign adviser . . . "Early on, he was in search of his identity as an African-American and, more importantly, as an African-American man. Reverend Wright and other male members of the church were instrumental in helping him understand the black experience in America. Winfrey wasn't going for that. She's secure in her blackness, so that didn't have a hold on her." . . .

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The newly all important Obama surrogate Joe Andrew was on Fox today and he flatly predicted Barack Obama will win both Indiana and North Carolina. Apparently he believes Zogby. In any event, here is another example of bad expectations management by the Obama camp. They are predicting victory in both Indiana and North Carolina. If it does not happen, then what?

Let's make this an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

John Zogby stands alone right now in predicting a Barack Obama 2 point win in Indiana. The key finding:

Clinton leads by 11 points among white voters in Indiana, which make up about 83% of the electorate. Obama leads by an enormous 10-to-1 ratio among African American voters in Indiana. Obama is holding on to a nine point lead among Indiana men, while closing the gap to five points behind Clinton among women.

Projecting undecideds, by my math, Zogby is projecting Clinton to win whites 55-44 (83% of the vote) and Obama to win African Americans (17% of the vote) by 90-9. This would be a terrific outcome for Obama and would win the race. Suffice it to say that Zogby is a charlatan and his results should be only be used to determine what Zogby the pundit is about. I think he is hoping for a close race in Indiana to let him claim some prescience. I believe he will have Clinton up narrowly on Tuesday. In North Carolina, Zogby has Obama up 10, which sounds about right to me. The key NC finding:

On Meet The Press, while Barack Obama acknowledged that were he President he too would order an attack on Iran should it launch a nuclear attack on Israel, he does not like Hillary Clinton's tough language stating the same view.

Similarly, while Barack Obama does not reject Hillary Clinton's "umbrella of deterrence" proposal, he does not think it is smart to debate the proposal in a campaign for the Presidency. I kid you not. Obama said the Presidential campaign is the wrong place to discuss a serious foreign policy issue.

I point these statements out not to criticize Obama himself. Indeed, his statements are a political calculation that may work for him. My point here is that the ACTUAL POLICIES Clinton espoused were either embraced or not rejected by Obama. The substance of these issues is not disagreed with by Obama. But he is a politician and gives a political answer. They are all pols folks, and act accordingly.

Watching CNN's Late Edition, I see that Bill Richardson does not like the language either. I do not think this is smart politics from the Obama camp.

By Big Tent Democrat

The New York Times has asked some of its op-ed contributors from North Carolina and Indiana to write about the race in their states.

Today's articles, one from each state, are both very good. In Songs of Eloquence and Experience, Alan Gurganus attends first a Bill Clinton and then a Hillary Clinton event, not expecting much but comes away impressed with each of them. Then it's on to an Obama event where he is expecting to be swept away in hope, optimism and youth -- politics mixed with a little religious ferver.

I’m nervous as I enter Chapel Hill’s basketball Valhalla, the Dean (Smith) Dome. Am I about to sing-speak-preach? This is the most perfectly racially integrated crowd I’ve ever been part of. Average age? Twenty-eight. I become that young myself.

He leaves extremely disappointed: [More...]

Charlotte Observer:

The choice between Sen. Obama and Hillary Clinton is not easy. She is indeed ready to be president on day one. After two terms with her husband in the White House and almost eight years in the Senate, she knows how things work. Smart and tenacious, she offers a progressive agenda. There are many reasons to think she'd be a good president.

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When Hillary Clinton appeared on Nightline this week, Cynthia McFadden asked her (from the transcript, ABC News, May 1, 2008, Clinton on the Rise, available on Lexis.com):

Would you be running for president if Chelsea were 10?

Hillary: No. Not a chance. I just couldn't have done it. I could never have run for office if I had young children. I just couldn't have done it.

Barack Obama brought his daughters, ages 6 and 9, along to campaign events in Indiana today. Michelle said it was an exciting time for the girls, a special treat.

Obama often mentions how he misses his children while campaigning. A few times he's flown home for a night just to be able to see them off to school in the morning. [More...]

I'm sure there's more going on in the world besides Guam. Here's an open thread -- you pick the topics. I'll be back at some point.

Bump and Update(TL): Hillary won Dededo 509 to 313, getting 61% of the vote. As Big Tent says below, that gives Obama a 7 vote win out of 4521 votes. It's Obama 50.1% to Hillary 49.9%.

There will be a recount due to about 500 ballots being "spoiled."

Update (BTD): It has been reported that unofficial initial results have Obama winning the Guam caucus by 7 votes, 2264-2257. I assume a recount may be in order though the delegate split is set. I doubt a 7 vote differential is going to sway the Guam superdelegates.

Update (TL): Still waiting on Dededo. Here's a chart with the caucus results so far. Obama's lead is down to 52.7 % . (7:06 am Guam time.)

While we're waiting, I just checked to see where Obama's Guam office is. It's in Hagåtña , "the island's second smallest village in both area and population" . It's where the government seat is. Dededo's 46,000 residents include 17,000 Chamorros and 24,000 Filipinos. Farming is making a comeback there. There is a university and it has a student group for Obama on his website but it only has 28 members. {More...]

In the face of some surprising and disappointing endorsements of divisive and false smears, it is important to remember the candidates themselves are much better than some of the activists and bloggers who seem intent on ripping the Democratic Party apart:

[Comments now closed]

HuffPo e-mailed me my friend Al Giordano's post that lauds Charles Blow's absurd piece that discusses the fact that white folks like Obama but ignores the fact that, as of now, they will not vote for him in large numbers in key swing states.

Blow's column is incomprehensible yet smear filled. Giordano enjoys the smears but ignores the problems:

Obama's favorable and negative ratings among whites have paired at five point increases. . . . [H]e's more popular today among white voters than he ever was prior to February.

Obama is more popular with whites now says Giordano. Which begs the question - then why does he get less white votes now than he did in February? Obama is poised to lose the white vote in North Carolina and Indiana by 3-2 at least. He lost the white vote by 2-1 in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. He loses white working class voters to McCain while Clinton wins them. He now runs worse than ever in head to heads with McCain while Clinton runs better than she ever has.

I do not doubt that Obama is better liked, but I am not at all sure anymore that he is likely to get more VOTES. And votes are what count in politics.

By Big Tent Democrat