Polls Can Be Funny

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Media
Posted on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:18:28 PM EST
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This new poll is going around. This part is hilarious:

Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased -- he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago. However, among all registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats (regardless of whether they have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama and Clinton are virtually tied -- 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Obama. This is similar to the numbers earlier in the week.

(Emphasis supplied.) Ha! That is one of the funniest things I have ever read. What pollster comes up with the "likely to have voted" screen? Even better, what are the numbers for the people who will vote in the upcoming primaries? Do you think they polled Puerto Rico? That may be a quarter of the remaining vote. [More...]

The funny thing is there is good news for Democrats in this poll - Obama beats McCain by 11 points. Oh by the way, Clinton beats him by 12 points. Somehow you will not be hearing that part of the story I think.

Moral of the story, be careful with polls. Most of them are useless. This one surely is.

Update [2008-5-4 20:10:2 by Big Tent Democrat]: NYTimes does not sell this poll finding, with good reason, the Dem primary calculation has an MOE of 6.

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Polls Can Be Funny | 69 comments (69 topical)

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I do not believe (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:24:18 PM EST

that either Clinton or Obama have a 10 or 12 point lead over McCain. National polls are, of course, useless.

Clinton Favorables Jump (5.00 / 2) (#4)
by Stellaaa on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:30:18 PM EST

OPINIONS OF THE CANDIDATES
(Among registered voters)
-- Now -- --4/30/08 --
Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable
Obama 44% 30 39% 34
Clinton 42% 37 36% 42
McCain 32% 35 33% 34

Look at Hillary's favorable going from 36 to 42,

Holy crap! (5.00 / 3) (#42)
by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:22:04 PM EST

Look at Hillary's favorable going from 36 to 42

Good news for our girl going into Tuesday!

BREAKING: New KUSA poll predicts Clinton takes IN by 12 and NC by 6. MOE is 0.


Ok...ok (none / 0) (#53)
by Stellaaa on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:55:52 PM EST

I will stop listening to Janis Ian, Chet Baker and all the other sad songs in the world and wanting it all to end.


: I lit a candle @6pm for positive divine (none / 0) (#61)
by thereyougo on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:30:14 PM EST

intervention. Hillary sites called for it 1500 candles were lit around the world.

K(athy)USA (none / 0) (#67)
by eleanora on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:36:17 PM EST

is my favorite pollster, because she only pays attention to polls that are good for Hillary, then comes up with her own composite number that feels right for upcoming races. Hey, she's much more trustworthy than Zogby :)


Fox is funny too (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by waldenpond on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:05:25 PM EST

Funny ha ha.... they had the clip of Clinton driving with someone and stopping for gas. She pays and then apparently takes something from the store, they then go to a car chase and the truck peeling out around a corner, Clinton in the truck smiling..... It was nice to see something fun for once.

Certain victory! (5.00 / 2) (#11)
by LarryInNYC on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:06:35 PM EST

Obama beats McCain by 11 points. Oh by the way, Clinton beats him by 12 points.

A unity ticket wins by 23 percent!

Are you certain you have (none / 0) (#13)
by oculus on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:13:13 PM EST

crrectly assessed the cross tabs?


Like your thinking (none / 0) (#14)
by RalphB on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:15:26 PM EST

about as good a poll analysis as done by CBS :-)


I'm telling ya - (none / 0) (#16)
by Josey on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:23:53 PM EST

This is exactly the way CBS presented it tonight...

>>>Obama beats McCain by 11 points. Oh by the way, Clinton beats him by 12 points.


Watch out Katie Couric! (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by LarryInNYC on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:32:32 PM EST

America is ready for a geeky, fat, bald news anchor with a lisp!


Couldn't do worse (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:35:38 PM EST

Just sayin'


Can anyone do any worse than Katie? (none / 0) (#63)
by Prabhata on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:36:29 PM EST

And I don't mean audience numbers. She's bad. She's not a journalist; she does not entertain; she's devoid of charm. It's not personal, I don't know anything about her, except that she was in one of those morning shows that I don't watch.


: Not a fan of Katie's (none / 0) (#72)
by caseyOR on Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:27:07 AM EST

but she is no worse than Brian Williams or Charlie Gibson. I really miss Peter Jennings.

I'm not sure if I agree ... (none / 0) (#32)
by Donald from Hawaii on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:50:57 PM EST

... with the your math and analysis -- but I have to admit that it sure sounds like music to my ears.


NYT article - strange (5.00 / 3) (#25)
by Josey on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:37:52 PM EST

When Hillary leads a category, she's mentioned last.
When Hillary loses a category, she's mentioned first.
But it is Adam Nagourney. sigh

>>>Mr. Obama would defeat Mr. McCain by a margin of 51 to 40 percent among all voters, and Mrs. Clinton would defeat him by a margin of 53 to 41.

Fifty-eight percent of respondents said that Mr. Obama was "tough enough to make the hard decisions a president has to make;" 70 percent said the same of Mrs. Clinton and 71 percent of Mr. McCain.

More than 60 percent of voters in this poll said Mrs. Clinton says what people want to hear, rather than what she believes. By contrast, just 43 percent said that about Mr. Obama and 41 percent said that about Mr. McCain.

: Same punky reporting that (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by Stellaaa on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:44:04 PM EST

brought the war.

: Very insightful and tyoical of Nagourney (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by debcoop on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:56:42 PM EST

I read the Times first then came here and read CBS and it took a moment they were talkning about the sam epoll. Perfect example of how interpretation skews facts.

Build up to war (sunday before election rant) (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by Stellaaa on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:41:04 PM EST

Contrary to what we see, what we hear, what we intuit, the MSM is acting like the buildup to the war, it's a fait accompli. The polls, the soft balls, the distortions, not checking stories out-- they want Obama. They all bought the narrative. Forget healthcare. Forget any change. Weak guy status quo--that's what they want. But heck, they think he will look better. Only problem I can stand him the way I could not stand Bush. The circus crowd wins, they don't even give us bread anymore. At least the Romans gave the darn bread.

Of Root Canal, "Delegate Drift" and (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by SunnyLC on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:02:54 PM EST

Tuesday, May 6

http://insightanalytical.wordpress.com/

Everything painful on that one, special day...

"That is one of the ... (2.00 / 1) (#15)
by Tortmaster on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:22:06 PM EST

... funniest things I have ever read." Are you talking about a portion of a poll that looks at people who are "likely voters"? Doesn't seem funny at all to me. On the contrary, it seems pretty standard fare.

Likely voters for elections (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:25:41 PM EST

that have already occurred? ?that is standard fare?

Oh by the freaking way, I guarantee you not one call was made to Puerto Rico for that poll.

Not one. After Indiana and NC, Puerto Rico will be the biggest election.

I detest some of the nonsense that we see pass as commentary now.


I'd like to take your ... (1.00 / 0) (#29)
by Tortmaster on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:46:56 PM EST

... guarantee, but I have to insist on a link.

You have made many arguments about how the tide is turning and Hillary is winning or will be winning or has to win among Democrats. And this will lead to super delegates suddenly jumping on her bandwagon -- contrary to everything that's happened since Super Tuesday. Thus, the polling data should be included in your argument (and Hillary's, or more accurately, Obama's), but since it doesn't support your thesis, I guess it is one of the "funniest" things you've ever read.


: Tort (5.00 / 0) (#38)
by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:16:48 PM EST

why don't you google it and bring back the links for us? Because I don't run a blog, but I know these facts pretty well from reading and clicking links here.

: A link to what? (5.00 / 2) (#49)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:36:34 PM EST

Nonexistent polls that do likely voter model for elections that have already taken place?
My point is they do NOT exist, ergo, no links can possibly exist to them.

don't even know why they (none / 0) (#1)
by RalphB on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:22:56 PM EST

attempted to ask that. Truly stupid :-)

But, Obama "bounced back" (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by oculus on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:25:53 PM EST

from Wright calamity; and he can hold a basketball in one hand--truely impressive.


I'm more impressed that he (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by Denni on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:40:01 PM EST

can pump his own gas and he knows how to pour coffee... it tells me he's not too far removed from us 'little people'. BTW, the other part that I'll bet won't be reported widely:

"Independents back Obama in a head to head against McCain, but in a Clinton-McCain contest independents support McCain by five points. However, more Democrats say they will vote Clinton in the fall than say they will vote for Obama. "

I doubt the last line, but there are enough independents to outweigh the 'stay home' crowd. ;-)


Yes (none / 0) (#12)
by RalphB on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:10:37 PM EST

when you have to tell people in a speech that you can pump your own gas, that makes you a populist?

haha


If you drive, you HAVE to pump your own gas (5.00 / 1) (#46)
by FlaDemFem on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:25:20 PM EST

they don't have service stations any more, just gas stations. So why is that such a populist thing? Anyone who drives their own car pumps gas. So his not having a chauffeur is what makes him a populist?? PUHLEEZE!!! would be more impressed if he knew the price of eggs, milk and bread and how much they have gone up lately.


When was the last time (none / 0) (#17)
by pie on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:24:31 PM EST

the vast majority didn't pump their own gas. It was considered a "cost-cutting" measure by the oil companies. Hilarious.

There are prolly still some full-serve gas stations. Aspen? Rancho Santa Fe?

You know, middle America.


New Jersey (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by p lukasiak on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:34:18 PM EST

is, by law, all full serve.

And gas is cheaper there than in PA.

Visiting my family in Jersey is like an undeserved luxury every week....I get to sit in the car and have my gas pumped (and my windows cleaned!) while I pay less for gas. (Of course, I leave a tip, so I probably don't save any money....)


: Yup, (none / 0) (#57)
by andgarden on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:07:28 PM EST

People will routinely drive across the river to buy gas.

Except Oregon and one other state (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by tree on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:37:44 PM EST

which I can't remember, where its illegal to pump your own gas.

I thought Obama's gas pumping comment was rather silly myself. Now if you change your own oil, or clean your own house, or do your own taxes, maybe then you can claim some middle class bona fides. But gas pumping? Not so much.


: What You Fail To Realize Is That obama (5.00 / 1) (#48)
by PssttCmere08 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:36:13 PM EST

pumped his own gas while wearing a suit and tie. He went sans a jacket though when he bowled.

: It's New Jersey - (none / 0) (#35)
by Anne on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:00:26 PM EST

after so many years of pumping my own gas, it's just weird to visit NJ and sit in the car while someone else does it for me.

: New Jersey (none / 0) (#69)
by Makarov on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:59:42 PM EST

is like Oregon. It's illegal to pump your own. It's also a bit cheaper there than where I live in PA. Course in PA, there are some stations that have full serve, but they're a minority - maybe 10%. The typical convenience store setup don't have full serve, but most stations with an old time garage do.

Paces Ferry Road (none / 0) (#20)
by Ga6thDem on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:33:50 PM EST

in Atlanta has a full service gas station. It's a road that the Governor's mansion along with lots of other mansions are located for those of you who don't know.


Buckhead (none / 0) (#23)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:36:23 PM EST

How do you know about Buckhead? (none / 0) (#39)
by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:18:19 PM EST

Paces Ferry is on the edge of that...the ookey edge. Too close to being outside the perimeter for my tastes...


Hmm (none / 0) (#47)
by Ga6thDem on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:34:43 PM EST

I gues you've hung out in Atlanta a few times, huh BTD :)


: My brother is a big shot Atlanta attorney (none / 0) (#50)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:38:09 PM EST

I pass the Gov. mansion on my way (none / 0) (#52)
by kenosharick on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:51:30 PM EST

to the Atlanta History Center (also on West Paces Ferry) but never noticed that station- I'll keep my eyes open as I am curious about their prices.


: Higher (none / 0) (#55)
by Ga6thDem on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:02:17 PM EST

than normal according to my husband.

Hey, in Oregon it is illegal (none / 0) (#26)
by caseyOR on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:38:11 PM EST

to pump your own gas. And everytime the oil companiestry to change that law, us pesky voters push back.


: And for those of us (none / 0) (#60)
by seeker on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:30:13 PM EST

who are disabled and cannot walk, it is a good thing that employees are required to pump gas. How do other states deal with people with disabilities?

More populist than ... (none / 0) (#30)
by Tortmaster on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:49:08 PM EST

... someone who can't pump their own gas, and who demonstrates it on national TV.

This polling data is great information for Obama. In October, when the Repubs try to raise Wright III, the public will be all but over it.


Wright III in Oct?? (none / 0) (#33)
by Josey on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:53:46 PM EST

by Oct, Repubs will have Wright MDCVII.


the poll is crap (none / 0) (#37)
by RalphB on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:11:18 PM EST

and if you think Wright or BitterCling has been raised already, you ain't seen nothing yet. The GOP will blanket the airwaves with their ads and dare you to call them racists.


Obama has already ... (5.00 / 1) (#40)
by Tortmaster on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:19:46 PM EST

... had to battle Repubs, the Clintons, the media and pundits. He's winning. When the race is narrowed down to just the Repubs and half the media and pundits, it will be much easier.

The polling data suggests that more Democrats who have actually voted want to see Obama as the nominee. What does that do to Clinton's "electability" argument -- at least amongst DEMOCRATIC super delegates?


Battled repubs, media, and pundits (5.00 / 1) (#44)
by RalphB on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:23:10 PM EST

Haha, you are seriously delusional.


Whether (5.00 / 1) (#56)
by Evie on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:03:24 PM EST

Florida and Michigan get their delegates seated or not, Democratic voters did actually vote.


Hint (1.00 / 0) (#41)
by Tortmaster on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:21:12 PM EST

The super delegates need VOTES to win their elections too.


Hint (5.00 / 0) (#43)
by Kathy on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:22:46 PM EST

super d's who want to get elected don't want to see their smiling faces alongside Wright, Ayers, Rezko, Auchi and Obama.


: Childers in MS (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by RalphB on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:24:58 PM EST

denying that Obama has endorsed him is a real vote of confidence, NOT :-)

Hey Tort-what planet are you on? (none / 0) (#54)
by kenosharick on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:58:25 PM EST

seriously. THe media and pundits have worked for, supported, and covered up for Obama. The repubs have barely touched him and the Clintons have gone incredibly easy on him. As for his wins- the vast majority took place before his many self-inflicted scandals dropped. Your argument is so divorced from reality I hesitatd replying, but what the heck.


Hello Kenosharick! (5.00 / 1) (#58)
by Tortmaster on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:14:18 PM EST

I'm from this planet. Although my opinion may not be what you like to hear, I don't doubt one bit that any impartial person who has watched the news cycles for the last two weeks would be able to see that Obama has had to deal with the Repubs, the Clintons, the media and the pundits. And he's still winning!

For the Repubs, they have the motivation to keep the race going and to get HRC nominated, a candidate who would energize their base beyond all their wildest dreams. Plus, she has unfavorables like no other major candidate ever.

For the media and pundits, they get to keep earning profits and let their biases (whether for the Repub nominee or Clinton) rule their words and actions.

One interesting example this morning was Juan Williams on Fox, saying that "Obama hasn't won a primary or caucus since ...." Of course, Obama just won Guam, and Williams completely ignored it to make his point.

P.S. Juan Williams' "tell" is that he looks at the table.


: Obama MIGHT have won Guam (none / 0) (#62)
by seeker on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:35:05 PM EST

by seven votes. Five hundrted ballots were "spoiled".

: Wow! Williams didn't (none / 0) (#70)
by tree on Mon May 05, 2008 at 12:38:12 AM EST

mention Obama's 7 vote win in Guam. Yup, that's a sure sign that Obama's had to face a tough battle from the pundits. Jeesh! Can't we get more believable spin?

: Sorry man, but you really are (none / 0) (#73)
by kenosharick on Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:29:01 AM EST

seriously out of touch with reality. You write that the media are all biased for "the repub nominee or Clinton." Please let me know what media and pundits have supported Clinton. The vast majority of the media and punditry is deeply in the bag for Obama. Clinton has gotten some of the worst treatment by the media in modern political history. Obama has had a free ride and 99% glowing press- recently the media BEGRUDGINGLY reported on his many scandals and you seem to only focus on that- forgetting that the media made the Obama candidacy.

Will You Please (none / 0) (#68)
by cal1942 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:49:00 PM EST

try to be honest about that poll.

It was voters in the Democratic primaries.

That includes independents and Republicans.


And Obama sure can dribble (none / 0) (#7)
by Cream City on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:32:33 PM EST

super-delegates. Saw that term used that week -- a "dribble" of super-delegates for Obama. :-)


: If Tom Hanks endorses Obama and (none / 0) (#8)
by oculus on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:34:42 PM EST

no one except Adrianna Huffington notices, . . .

I Took A Poll of Me, Myself & I and Hillary (none / 0) (#5)
by PssttCmere08 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 06:31:02 PM EST

is 25 points ahead of obama. Seriously though, won't there be some foolish people who will start touting this as reliable? I bet this is spread all over DKos and HuffPo already.

: sure nuf! (none / 0) (#31)
by Josey on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:50:49 PM EST

it's front paged at DK -
OBAMA BEATS McCAIN BY 11 POINTS!!!!!!
WRIGHT IS NO PROBLEM FOR OBAMA!!!!
lol

Food for thought.... (none / 0) (#51)
by sas on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:47:10 PM EST

from the site NO QUARTER regarding the Louisiana election where the GOP is using the Obama connection against Dems who endorsed him....

"There is something to be learned from tonight's results. When Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi were introduced into this campaign, Don Cazayoux was leading by a large margin in the polls. Since then, Republicans saturated the Baton Rouge airwaves in an effort to nationalize this contest and make the election about the real life consequences of a Barack Obama presidency and a continued Pelosi-run Democratic Congress. In that time, Republicans made substantial ground.

This election speaks to the potential toxicity of an Obama candidacy and the possible drag he could have down-ballot this fall. "

Toxicity is right.

Wow, you mean ... (5.00 / 1) (#59)
by Tortmaster on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:19:52 PM EST

... it is horrible that the Democratic candidate rode Obama's coat-tails to a victory in one of the most Republican-dominated districts in the nation?

How about Denny Hastert's old seat? That was pure Republican/Suburban territory. No way a Democrat could win there, right? Especially with Obama campaigning for him, no? Oops, that Democrat won too!

This is the 50-state strategy in practice, and that is exactly why the Repubs want to get rid of Barack Obama.


: Hastert's seat was an usual event (none / 0) (#64)
by Prabhata on Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:42:32 PM EST

Also, the Wright mess was had not blown up on BO's face.