Bump and Update: What to look for in Indiana: How well Obama does in three areas, Gary which is 85% African American with a total population of 100,000; Indianapolis, which is 25% black and has a population of 780,000, and the college towns, particularly Bloomington. For Hillary, check the turnout along the Western side of the state under the northern counties and St. Joseph County with South Bend which has a lot of Catholics-- and a population of 265,000.

Here are the official voter registration stats for Indiana as of April 30. Unfortunately, they are not broken down by county.

Politico reports on early turnout: [More...]

You gotta love the newly all important Obama surrogate Joe Andrew. Sunday, just 2 days ago, he was giving a Joe Namath guarantee that Barack Obama would win Indiana. Now I am watching him on MSNBC (the Obama News Network, as Chris "Tweety" Matthews admitted) claiming it would be a miracle like parting the Red Sea if Obama comes close in Indiana.

Andrew, the DC lawyer/lobbyist, is a hoot. This is an Open Thread.

More...

The FBI has been busy today executing search warrants at the Offices of Special Counsel and the home of its chief, Special Counsel Scott Bloch. NPR has more here.

The OSC oversees protection for whistleblowers. He's been under investigation for two years. More below.

Hillary Clinton has no secret plan to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates. She's been totally transparent on her efforts to seat both delegations. Here's her plan, according to her campaign on May 4:

There is no secret plan. In fact, this story misrepresents the process laid out in the DNC rules for resolving the questions surrounding the seating of the Michigan and Florida delegations.

The Clinton campaign has been vocal in stating that the votes of 2.5 million people must be respected. Hardly a day goes by when a Clinton official doesn’t publicly declare that the votes of Michigan and Florida count and that the delegations from those states should be seated.

More...

Update [2008-5-6 14:14:16 by Big Tent Democrat]: Al Gore expects Michigan and Florida delegations to be seated.

Bumped and updated (BTD) This story has become a big one today. Hillary Clinton said 2209 is the magic number. Howard Dean said the DNC wants to seat FL and MI. Andrea Mitchell does not like it.

Yesterday, on the Clinton Media call, I asked if the Clinton campaign agreed that that Magic Number for securing the nomination was 2025, or did it believe that the Magic Number must include the MI/FL delegations, which would make the magic number 2209. The Media is picking up on Garin's answer: [More . . .]

It is the time of day for the standard "turnout is heavy" stories. Political Wire has two:

Turnout Very Heavy

Charlotte Observer: "Long lines were reported this morning at some polling places across North Carolina in the state's first significant presidential primary election in two decades... Longtime N.C. political observers say that 1.5 million voters may participate in the historic Democratic primary."

Indianapolis Star: "More voters have turned out in the first half hour than usually turn out in a half day... Republicans appeared to be crossing over in droves today in Marion County and suburban counties."

The Republicans in Marion County part is interesting. The "It's Rush Limbaugh's fault" contingent is no doubt revving up.

Chuck Todd, once a respected voice, now on MSNBC declaring "campaigning over" today. I guess West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, etc., do not matter. Chuck, what happened to you man?

By Big Tent Democrat

Update: New Posts are below this one. Just scroll down. We'll be bumping this to the top periodically through lunchtime. Thanks, everyone.

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The House Judiciary Committee today voted to subpoena Dick Cheney aide David Addington in its probe into the Bush Adminstration's interrogation practices.

Addington refused to testify without a subpoena. John Yoo has agreed to testify without a subpoena.

Former Attorney General John Ashcroft, former Under Secretary of Defense Douglas Feith, and former Assistant Attorney General Daniel Levin have also agreed to give testimony at a future hearing. Former CIA Director George Tenet is still in negotiations with the committee, according to House Judiciary Committee spokeswoman Melanie Roussell.

The Judiciary Committee hearings are meant to determine what role administration lawyers played in creating and approving interrogation procedures that went far beyond those traditionally used by U.S. forces, and whether any of them violated their legal or ethical obligations, said Committee Chairman John Conyers, D-Mich.

In related news, the Center for Constitutional Rights has filed a new lawsuit alleging torture at Abu Ghraib by military contractors. [More...]

The Washington Post reports that the Bush Administration says it is unlikely that trials of any of the Guantanamo detainees will take place before Bush leaves office.

Nearly seven years later, however, not one of the approximately 775 terrorism suspects who have been held on this island has faced a jury trial inside the new complex, and U.S. officials think it is highly unlikely that any of the Sept. 11 suspects will before the Bush administration ends.

Though men such as Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the alleged Sept. 11 mastermind, are expected to be arraigned in coming months -- appearing publicly for the first time after years of secret detention and harsh interrogations -- officials say it could be a year or longer before worldwide audiences will see even the first piece of evidence or testimony against them.

All three presidential candidates, Hillary, Obama and McCain have promised to close Guantanamo. [More...]

Below I wrote that Barack Obama can win the nomination today by sweeping North Carolina and Indiana. But the reality is Obama can not lose in North Carolina. If he does, then he is in serious serious trouble. Why? Because in order to lose North Carolina, Obama will have to garner less than 30% of the white vote. Remember, North Carolina's electorate today will be comprised of at least 32% and likely more African Americans. They will vote for Obama by at least 9-1. Thus, in order to win North Carolina, Obama only needs to capture about 30% of the remaining vote, almost all of it white. Let me repeat - Hillary Clinton can win 70% of the white vote in North Carolina and lose. The fact is Obama can not lose North Carolina. Period.

More . . .

As we're following the news, I wonder how our expectations will change throughout the day as we hear from anchors, surrogates and pundits. Let's hear your early predictions for both states, with point spreads, and then we'll do another this mid-afternoon and this evening.

One winner from each prediction thread will get a present from TalkLeft (I'll have to figure out a fair way to choose if there's a tie.)

I'm also putting a poll below.

Update (9:50 am MT): George Stephanopoulous on the campaigns' predictions:

Obama's supporters suggested to Stephanopoulos that Clinton would win in Indiana by as much as eight points, and Clinton's camp hinted that Obama would win by as much as 10 points in North Carolina. If either of those margins are trimmed, the loser will likely claim some sort of upset victory.

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Terry McCauliffe was on Fox News this morning with Bill Hemmer. Hemmer said word is from Drudge that Clinton advisors say Obama will take N.C. by 15 points. He asked Terry if he's hearing those numbers and if he thinks Hillary can win that state. McCauliffe said he's never spoken to Drudge in his life and he hasn't heard those numbers.