By Big Tent Democrat

Rasmussen sez:

OHIO

Clinton 48 (51)
Obama 40 (37)

TEXAS

Clinton 47 (54)
Obama 44 (38)

This is the new state of the race. Clearly Clinton is holding better in Ohio than Texas. She needs both. Some interesting findings on the flip.

Austin, TX is considered one of the most liberal cities in Texas. It is also home to the University of Texas. I always thought it was purely Obama country.

Today, The Daily Texan, the university's newspaper, made it clear that it is endorsing Hillary Clinton for President.

George W. Bush has made a mess of America, and we believe Hillary Clinton is the best person to clean it up. She is prepared and willing to be a leader who is "a lot less hat and a lot more cattle," as she stated during Thursday night's debate.

Clinton is a seasoned politician, and some argue that works against her. But Bush has been wildly successful in destroying every positive function of the machine that is Washington, D.C., and Clinton has the political tools and knowledge to fix it.

More...

Move-On just sent its Denver members an e-mail asking them to host an Obama party on Sunday where everyone brings a cell phone:

On Sunday, March 2, we're holding the biggest phone bank in presidential primary history. Folks everywhere will come to parties armed with cell phones—ready to call thousands of Texas MoveOn members whose votes could put Obama over the top on March 4.

...."we'll make sure folks know about the unusual primary-plus-caucus system in Texas, which allows voters to double their impact. If we can get our 125,000 MoveOn members in Texas to flood primary and caucus locations, Obama will win.

And the disclaimer: "PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee."

900 people have already signed up to host parties across the country. Their goal is 1,000 parties. And Obama complains about a 527 PAC for Hillary in Ohio?

By Big Tent Democrat

Want to argue about electability? SUSA, the new world's best pollster, has a new set of head to heads that you can argue over. My view is that Obama is generally more electable but I am worried about his performance in OH, PA and Florida. Below the flip, the new polls.

By Big Tent Democrat

Both Jeralyn and I like NBC's Chuck Todd's work quite a bit. He is smart and a straight shooter and so I think his reaction to last night's debate is worth looking at:

As for the big picture, the question for everyone watching this debate is: Did Clinton do anything tonight to change the trajectory of this race? And the answer is no. Did she potentially win this debate on points; I think so; it was close but she had a couple of VERY good moments on health care and the economy that probably scored well in the various focus groups of undecided voters watching this debate. Obama was uneven, at times great (like in his answers on Iraq and his speeches) but sometimes he seemed to go through the motions. It may be because he was a bit stuffed up; he was good tonight, not great. But he made no major gaffes (for the primary) and more importantly the one great rehearsed attack line Clinton had for Obama (about change you can xerox) seemed to fall flat. But Clinton needed a game-changing moment and she didn't get one tonight. And this is how this debate will be judged.

I disagree that Clinton could even have a game changing moment nor did she need one. First, there is another debate in a few days. And second, and more importantly, Clinton needs a game changing two weeks, not a game changing night. That will only come with hard work and continued focus on reconsolidating her base. Focus on health care, the economy and her personal image can do that. She accomplished all 3 last night. For the Media, Hillary did not change the game last night, but Clinton needs to understand she will never win in the Media. She needs to win with her voters in Texas and Ohio. Last night she kept that focus.

By Big Tent Democrat

You may not be aware of this, but some issues were discussed in last night's debate. Two issues dominated a good part of the night. The economy and health care. It used to be thought that a debate dominated by discussions of the economy and health care made for a good Clinton debate. And as I live blogged it, I thought she, yes, whupped up on Obama pretty good. And I thought one of the most important differences was the differing theories of change articulated by Obama and Clinton. But maybe my eyes and ears deceived me. So let's review the transcript on the flip.

NOTE - This thread is now closed.

By Big Tent Democrat

In their fierce defense of Barack Obama, his partisans sometimes go to great lengths to demonstrate, ironically, that he is just another politician. Josh Marshall does so with this silly plagiarism stuff, in pseudo attacking Hilary Clinton for using a line similar to something Bill Clinton said in 1992:

Just to be 100% clear, there's nothing in the least wrong with this. And it's a great line. But I think it shows the silliness of the 'plagiarism' charges based on a few borrowed lines. Politicians borrow good lines and catch-phrases. Happens all the time. There's nothing wrong with it.

Yes indeed. POLITICIANS do it all the time. I agree. And thanks for realizing Barack Obama is, shockingly, just another pol. Sort of been my point for a while now.

See the update on the flip.

The Washington Post and ABC have released their poll of likely Democratic voters in Texas and Ohio , taken Feb. 16 to 20. As the article says, Hillary is slightly ahead in Ohio and she and Obama are essentially tied in Texas.

The polling data behind the poll is here. I see some different patterns.

In Ohio. 72% said they would vote for Hillary while 70% said they would vote for Obama. 27% percent of these voters said they would definitely vote for Hillary, 11% could change their mind, and 16% said it was unlikely they'd change their mind.

For Obama, 70% said they were definitely going for Obama, 14% said they were could change their mind an 9% said they were unlikely to change. [More...]

Now for the post-mortem. Will Hillary see a bounce in Texas and Ohio? Was her final statement of pride in being with Obama a signal that if she loses Texas and Ohio, she'll gracefully step aside? Will Texas and Ohio bring it home for her so she can stay in through Pennsylvania and keep her superdelegates happy?

I have no answers, all I can tell you is the TV pundits don't either. Most of them watched a different debate than I did.

The debate transcript is here. This will be our fourth and final thread on the Texas debate.

(Comments closed here. New thread is here.)

The debate's over. Who won? What did you think?

Update: (Big Tent Democrat): I thought Hillary whupped him good. David Gergen thought it was even until Hillary's last answer, he thinks it was her best moment of the campaign. I don't see it. Go figure. Watching more of the pundits, they really have no idea what to say anymore. They really are useless. But who cares what they think?

Poll below.

Update: Post debate thread here. Comments closing on this one.

The Austin, TX CNN Debate starts in 5 minutes. Big Tent Democrat and I are live-blogging using our live-blog software.

You can comment same as always in the comment section below. You also can send us live messages through the software. Only comments you post below will appear on the site. For a reminder of what it looks like, see our L.A. Debate thread.

I'll be putting up some polls during it to see how you think the candidates and questioners are doing. His posts will say BTD and mine will be TL.

The live blog stays below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

Here's a pre-debate thread for CNN's debate tonight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Until it starts, please post your comments on tonight's debate, expectations, predicitions, etc. here.

The live blog, once it starts, will be here.