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Wednesday :: January 09, 2008

Don't Forget the Volunteers

With all the talk about the polls, the media and the campaign strategists, there's one group who may be more responsible for the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire than all of them -- the volunteers who were "in the field" as they say, going door to door and more, as part of the "GOTV" (get out the vote) effort.

Check out this diary by BdB over at MyDD. It's very well written, totally engrossing and provides another dimension to the election coverage. It's also extemely gracious. It ends with:

One final thing, all of the Edwards and Obama volunteers we met were incredibly nice to us, even after Clinton looked to be winning. I hope they found us nice back.

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Do Women Not Use The Buddy System?

Sully is in full rampage Clinton Derangement Syndrome mode:
"I was laughing because you know in that debate, obviously Sen. Edwards and Sen. Obama were kind of in the buddy system on the stage. And I was thinking whoever's up against the Republican nominee in the election debates come the fall is not gonna have a buddy to fall back on. You know, you're all by yourself. When you're president, you're there all by yourself," - Senator Clinton on her two rivals for the nomination. Notice another subtle use of the gender card. We really are headed back to the 1990s.
(Emphasis supplied.) Say what? The buddy system is only used by males?
The buddy system is a procedure in which two people, the buddies, operate together as a single unit so that they are able to monitor and help each other. . . . The buddy system is used in: The US Army. Scuba diving, where it is called buddy diving. . . . Firefighting, where it is called the two-in, two-out principle.
So is Sully thinking of a world where women are not part of the army or go scuba diving or can be firefighters? And he wonders why people think he hates women.

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Bill Richardson Now Confirms He's Dropping Out of Presidential Race

Update: Keith Olbermann now says Richardson has confirmed he's dropping out to NBC News.

***

The AP reports that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will announce the end to his presidential campaign tomorrow.

Richardson had one of the most wide-ranging resumes of any candidate ever to run for the presidency, bringing experience from his time in Congress, President Clinton's Cabinet, in the New Mexico statehouse as well as his unique role as a freelance diplomat. As a Hispanic, he added to the unprecedented diversity in the Democratic field that also included a black and a woman.

Keith Olbermann on MSNBC says NBC spoke to his campaign which denies it. According to Olbermann, Richardson may just be suspending his campaign.

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"Speak English" Rudy Releases Campaign Ad in Spanish

Rudy Giuliani's immigration reform plan contains a requirement that immigrants learn to read, write and speak English before being allowed to become citizens.

Think Progress reports today he released a new campaign ad in Florida ...in Spanish.

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Judge Won't Order Review of CIA Tape Destruction

A federal judge in Washington has refused to order an investigation into the destruction of CIA interrogation tapes showing coercive techniques.

A federal judge yesterday declined to order a special review of the CIA's destruction of interrogation videotapes, saying that there is no evidence the Bush administration defied court orders and that Justice Department prosecutors should be allowed to proceed with their own investigation into the matter.

U.S. District Judge Henry H. Kennedy Jr. said in a three-page ruling in Washington that a group of inmates held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, "offer nothing to support their assertion that a judicial inquiry" is necessary into the tape destruction. He said neither of the detainees whose interrogations were taped and later destroyed has an apparent connection to the prisoners who were demanding the review.

The Justice Department says it's investigating the destruction of the tapes of interrogations of two detainees, as has the House Intelligence Committee. But, the star witness for the House investigation is refusing to testify without immunity.

More...

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What If Obama Is Susceptible To The Wilder Effect?

I am one of the few people who, before the New Hampshire results, expressly stated a belief in the continued existence of the Wilder Effect (named after Douglas Wilder's wide poll lead evaporated on election day (see also Tom Bradley in California and David Dinkins in New york for other examples) - where certain white voters telling pollsters they will vote for a black candidate when they will not. I believe Barack Obama is an African American candidate where this is much less likely to be the case. I think what happened in New Hampshire was clear - women flocked to Hillary in response to the disgraceful misogynistic coverage she was getting from the Media. I do not believe the Wilder Effect had anything to do with it.

But some pollsters, in understandable CYA mode given the fact that their imprecision was exposed for all the world to see, and strangely to me, some Obama supporters, are eagerly forwarding this explanation.

Why strange for Obama supporters? Because if they believe Obama is susceptible to the Wilder Effeect, they are undercutting his electability argument. What would Obama supporters have us do now? Discount 5-7 percent from all poll findings for Obama? Because if that is the case, then he is clearly the least electable candidate. I can not imagine that is what they would want. But that is the logical conclusion to draw.

I reject the Wilder Effect explanation for New Hampshire and believe that we need not discount Obama's poll numbers. I believe he is every bit as electable as Hillary Clinton.

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Clinton Campaign Goes Active in Nevada, South Carolina

Yesterday the speculation was whether Hillary Clinton would forego Nevada and South Carolina.

In Nevada, Obama expected (and now has received) two union endorsements. In South Carolina, where half the Democratic voters are African-American, a New Hampshire win might have produced an Obama tidal wave.

The Clinton campaign has announced its plans. It's going to fight for Nevada and South Carolina, as well as the "Super Duper Tuesday" states.

For those of us who want as long a primary season as possible, so more Democratic voters will have the opportunity to meaningfully participate in the choice of a nominee, this is good news.

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Tweety: Hillary Won Because Bill Messed Around

You can't make this stuff up. Chris Matthews on "Morning Joe" says the reason Hillary Clinton won her New York Senate seat and is a front-runner in the presidential race is because Bill Clinton "messed around." [Via TPM]

He's why I watched CNN (except when Lou Dobbs was on) until after the winner was announced.

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New Hampshire: The Day After

Update: DHinMi at Daily Kos on the county breakdown. This is something I was particularly interested in, see here for example, and appreciate the good analysis.

***

More analysis of yesterday's New Hampshire primary, why Hillary won and the pollsters were wrong and what's to come.

  • Washington Post, Clinton Teaches Politics 101 concluding the race is now unpredictable:

    In the five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton ran a campaign. Barack Obama rode a wave. Everyone - myself included - believed the wave would not crest before Tuesday's balloting. Clinton, determined as ever, set out to do something to stop it.

From the blogs: [more]

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Nevada Culinary Workers Endorse Barack Obama

The Nevada Culinary Workers Union, with 60,000 members including the state's casino workers, endorsed Barack Obama late last night.

Nevada's primary is January 19. The Democratic turnout is expected to be 40,000. Here's some analysis from the Las Vegas Sun.

The SEIU in Nevada also endorsed Obama last night, but the implication isn't clear.

The chaotic selection process and deep division within the union's ranks will likely diminish the endorsement's weight. The decision came after a teleconference among 34 of the union's 44-member executive board Tuesday.

Update: Nevada Congresswoman Shirley Berkley endorsed Hillary today.

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Earth to Major Garrett

This is funny. Read through the e-mail exchanges between Paul Begala and Fox News' Major Garrett. Despite absolute denials, Fox and Garrett continued to falsely report that Begala was joining Hillary Clinton's campaign.

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A Kind Word For John Edwards

I believe John Edwards blew it in New Hampshire by not running hard for his theory of change, instead choosing to align himself with Barack Obama's unity campaign against Hillary Clinton.

But let's be clear, in the battle for theory of change, John Edwards' theory is about to emerge triumphant. Obama and Clinton will be Fighting Dems for the duration.

That is why this type of inside baseball analysis of the fates of Mark Penn and Company really misses the boat. Whether Penn gets canned or not is not the point - his triangulation tactics, and I believe the unity tactics of David Axelrod, will now be in the political dustbin. That is what matters here, not whether these overhyped consultants continue to draw paychecks from the Clinton and Obama campaign.

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