According to E.J. Dionne:

Change, particularly generational change, was also at the heart of Barack Obama's victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards. . . . Obama's theme of ending partisan divisions by reaching out to independents and Republicans may be an enduring legacy of the evening . . .

According to David Brooks:

[Obama] talks about erasing old categories like red and blue (and implicitly, black and white) and replacing them with new categories, of which the most important are new and old. He seems at first more preoccupied with changing thinking than changing legislation. . . Obama is changing the tone of American liberalism, and maybe American politics, too.

It was not a victory for progressive policy seems the conclusion but for unity and tone. It is ironic to me that John Edwards and Joe Trippi claim to be on the winning side last night. If Brooks and Dionne are correct, the big SUBSTANTIVE loser last night was John Edwards. Brooks writes: [More...]

In just 4 short days, New Hampshire voters will be voting for Presidential nominees. The results in Iowa will loom large for Democrats at least. Does Huckabee benefit at all? I would think so myself. But the Media is behind McCain so we will see.

Barack Obama will be the prohibitve favorite to win New Hampshire. Even though today's Zogby poll of New Hampshire has this result:

Clinton 32
Obama 26
Edwards 20

This was pre-Iowa. Obama is ahead today. There seems to me be only one scenario which imperils Obama in New Hampshire - a full court press, pun intended, for McCain. The Media WANTS McCain. And if McCain gets Independents to come out for him in large numbers (after all, Hillary has already been knocked down, do they need to knock her down again?), that hurts Obama. [More....]

CNN pundits tonight skewered Hillary and sainted Obama. The pundits were so awful I had to use the mute button. Especially on Carl Bernstein. He couldn't even talk about Hillary...only about his very subjective perception that Bill Clinton seemed devastated. I saw the same speech -- live at the hotel -- and I thought Bill seemed proud.

Obama is the hero of the night. The media loved his speech, in which he played (overplayed, in my view) the Martin Luther King, Jr. card. His other topic, repeated throughout, was his appeal to New Hanpshire voters. He does have one major asset in my view.... his wife Michelle.

Hillary was gracious and like she always does, touted her experience and specifics about her aqenda if she's elected. But, her speech tonight was different -- in recognition of Obama's win of the youth vote, she stressed global warming and bringing the troops home. No mention of social security, caregivers, voting for a female, etc, which she was stressing just yesterday when I heard her in Cedar Rapids.

Bottom line: As I wrote last night, I think the Democratic nomination will turn on the youth vote. and it's too late for Hillary to pick it up -- Obama owns them. Rock the Vote may not have brought it home for Gore or Kerry, but it seems like it can do the trick for Obama. [More....]

6:15 pm Iowa time: I'm at a Democratic caucus at the Roosevelt High School in Des Moines. There are several caucuses in the building. The one I'm at right now is taking place in the school auditorium.

There are four seating sections, arranged like those in movie theaters, with rows of seats from right to left. Hillary supporters are in the front center section, Obama's section is to the right of her section and Edwards' supporters are to the left. Further back is a Richardson section. There's also a Biden section -- I'm not sure where his seats are but his staffers are on the far right. There's two chairs on the stage, and someone is putting a big Obama 08 on them. I'll add pictures later.

Obama's section is fairly full. It's a very diverse group with lots of minorities. The Edwards supporters to my left are very sure of who they are voting for.

Please let me know in the comments if there's something special you're curious about. Otherwise, I'll just live-blog. By the way, I'm doing this reporting-style -- which means neutrally.

We're starting now, timed updates and after-thoughts below.

Per CNN, Joe Biden says he's withdrawing from the Presidential race. Good. He's the one Democrat running I would not have supported for President -- the last thing we need is another law and order President.

I imagine Obama's speech will commence to catch the start of the 11 o'clock news. I can't watch it right now. Please tell me how he is. I imagine it will be an electric moment when he walks to the podium.

And let me say this. Even though I have serious reservations about Obama's political style, I still think that he is a phenomenal politician and I believe, speaking for me only, that he will be the next President of the United States.

The first African American to hold that office. And no matter what you think of Obama, that is about as exciting a prospect as I can imagine (at least equal to the prospect of the first woman President of the United States.)

Chris Dodd drops out.

As some of you know, I was an early supporter of Senator Dodd because he was running a campaign on issues and leading on them NOW. Like Iraq. And restoring the Constitution. And on civil liberties and habeas corpus.

Senator Dodd should be proud of the campaign he ran. Unlike others, Senator Dodd's campaign actually made a difference in the discussion of these issues.

And that mattered. Thank you Senator Dodd for your leadership. You made a difference.

Here's an e-mail I received from an Iowa caucus goer tonight, someone I don't know but who has e-mailed me several times over the past few days:

My name is John E. Gall, I am a registered Democrat, and vote at Precinct 1 in Hiawatha, Iowa. Tonight, January 3, 2008, I attended the Democratic caucus for that precinct in support of John Edwards. There were 180 registered voters in attendance. I did not see anyone from the media. Prior to tabulation of the votes for each candidate, no mention was made by the chair of any provision for resolving ties in assigning delegates; i.e., if candidate A earns exactly 3.5 delegates, and candidate B earns exactly 2.5 delegates, which candidate gets the half delegate rounded up or down? The following is what I remember of the evening's events.

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CNN projects. 37% for Obama, 30% for Clinton, 30% for Edwards.

Given the second choice deals with Kucinch and Richardson, it appears the here was basically a tie in first choices. But since the Entrance Poll results were never given, I can not know.

The DMR Gold Standard Poll remains intact.

(Speaking for me only) Joe Trippi on MSNBC makes an utter fool of himself. He attacks Hillary Clinton an STILL ignores that Barack Obama cleaned Edwards' clock in the battle to be the Hillary Alternative race.

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For some reason, NONE of the networks reported the entrance poll other than to say that Clinton and Obama leading with Edwards trailing. The actual results of the entrance poll results never were given.

I have no idea why. As for the actual results, they have shown a three way tie with 40 A 4 point Obama lead in a close 3 way race with close to 69% of the precincts reporting.

Right now I must admit I have no idea what is going on or what has happened. The reporting tonight has been as bad as I have ever sen it. Not excepting Keith Olberman.

Huckabee wins NBC says. Due to the tightness of the Dem race and the size of Huckabee's victory, it turns out Huckabee becomes a bigger story than one would have thought.

Update [2008-1-3 20:38:37 by Big Tent Democrat]: CNN - 56% women, 26% Independents. Axelrod says anecdotal of evidence of over 200,000 turnout. No idea if Axelrod knows or is blowing smoke.

Half are first time caucusgoers and a ton of older women. Singer says Entrance polls says Clinton 36, Obama 31.

Via Todd Beeton:

130,000 Iowans expected to vote in Democratic caucus; 80,000 expected to vote in Republican caucus.

Keith Olbermann just said Obama and Clinton leading in Entrance Polls. Apparently too close to call.

Edwards 3rd.

Update [2008-1-3 20:7:59 by Big Tent Democrat]:Huckabee and Romney apparently close according to exit polls.

As Tom Petty says, the waiting is the hardest part. Doors open in two hours to the caucuses. Will independent voters turn out in droves to vote for a Democrat? Will the youth vote materialize? Will there really be an unprecedented number of first-time caucus goers? Will Hillary use all of her 5,000 drivers to get her supporters to their caucus venues? Who will the second tier candidates throw their support to?

Jane of Firedoglake and I have three caucuses on our list and will live-blog from whichever we end up at. After the caucuses, we'll be at the Convention Center to watch the results come in real-time with the other 2,500 journalists. Both of us will have desk space with electrical outlets and internet connections.

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