By Big Tent Democrat

Via Kevin Drum, the Obama camp is predicting a deadlocked race:

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

Fascinating. Boy will we have a mess if that is true. Florida and Michigan and the superdelegates will be in the middle of it. Frankly if that happens, an Obama/Clinton, Clinton/Obama ticket simply is unavoidable. There can be no other way.

As always, time will tell.

By Big Tent Democrat

But but but:

About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.

Yep, Zogby nailed Obama winning Illinois and Clinton winning New York. Thanks for the insight John. But what's missing an election by 23 points amongst us friends? We still love ya John.

Obama will be the first woman President:

Obama supporter Megan Beyer, wife of former Virginia lieutenant governor Donald S. Beyer said "[i]n many ways, he really will be the first woman president[.]"

Um, oookaaay.

By Big Tent Democrat

This is bad news for the Clinton campaign:

Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson sends over the following:

Late last month Senator Clinton loaned her campaign $5 million.The loan illustrates Sen. Clinton’s commitment to this effort and to ensuring that our campaign has the resources it needs to compete and win across this nation. We have had one of our best fundraising efforts ever on the web today and our Super Tuesday victories will only help in bringing more support for her candidacy.

So it is clear that the Clinton campaign DOES have money troubles. This is the very bad news from yesterday. I must admit I am surprised. And yes, this does change my thinking somewhat about who won Super Tuesday. If Obama forced Clinton to these extremes, then it was more of a positive for Obama than I thought.

I could think of mitigating circumstances for this (i.e. no time for fundraising) but that does not really wash. If she can not get her fundraising groove back, this will be a decided advantage for Obama.

Chris Bowers has an updated post on the delegate count and as I read it Chris shows Clinton with maybe a 2 delegate advanatage on Super Tuesday.

Where did Obama have a big delegate edges? Alaska (+5), Colorado (+17), Georgia (+17), Idaho (+12), Illinois (+43), Kansas (+14), Minnesota (+24) and Utah (+5).

Where did Clinton have a big delegate edge? Arizona (+6), Arkansas (+14), California (+39), Massachusetts (+17), New Jersey (+14), New York (+42), Oklahoma (+10) and Tennessee (+15). These were Clinton's 8 wins.

The close divides came in Alabama (Obama +2), Delaware (Obama +3), New Mexico, (even) Missouri (even), North Dakota (Obama +3). A total of plus 8 for Obama. Obama may have won all 6 of these, pending a counting of the provisional votes in New Mexico.

By Big Tent Democrat

Here is an interesting development - before last night's voting, continuing in his speech last night and continuing today, Barack Obama seems to be in full bore negative campaigning mode:

Sen. Barack Obama predicted Wednesday that Republicans will have a dump truck full of dirt to unload on Hillary Rodham Clinton if the former first lady wins the Democratic presidential nomination, and said he offers the party its best hope of winning the White House this fall.

Whatever happened to the politics of hope?

By Big Tent Democrat

While we can reasonably wrangle about what the meaning of the Super Tuesday results were for Clinton and Obama, I think we all can agree that it was not a good night for the Kennedy endorsers of Obama, especially Ted Kennedy and Maria Shriver.

Despite polls showing Obama with a reasonable chance of winning Massachusetts and California, and with the Media in a Kennedy frenzy, Obama took a sound beating in both MA and CA. And I do not think Ted Kennedy helped Obama in Alaska, Idaho and Utah.

By Big Tent Democrat

Greg Sargent calls this claim by the Clinton campaign strained:

This one is worth keeping an eye on, because we'll be hearing more of it in the days ahead. In the Clinton campaign conference call I mentioned below, Hillary pollster Mark Penn repeatedly said Obama was becoming an "establishment candidate" -- a rather strained effort to use Obama's high-profile endorsements to weaken his insurgent appeal.

When the Establishment Media, Establishment politicans and Establishment bloggers all are for you, that sort of makes you the candidate of the Establishment. Of course Clinton is no insurgent. That would be ridiculous. But at this point, to call Obama an insurgent candidate is equally ridiculous.

By Big Tent Democrat

The thread in my post mortem post is overflowing. You can continue that discussion here or post about anything you like.

A data point. Chris Bowers has Clinton ahead in the pledged delegate count by 57 from the Super Tuesday contests. I have no idea if he is right. He is also speculating that Obama will narrow the gap and even be leading when all the delegates are counted. Time will tell.

This is an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

Unlike the entire world apparently, I see last night's results as the beginning of the end for the Obama Presidential campaign. My thinking is fairly straightforward - Obama's has been a Media and Mo campaign to knock off the resilient favorite. He has had a ten day stretch that is not likely to be matched again. From the Media coverage of the South Carolina primary, to the Kennedy endorsements, to polls showing him with a REAL chance of winning states like Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, this was a perfect storm for the Obama campaign. If he could have won Massachusetts and either New Jersey or California, he would have gained a stranglehold on the nomination. And not only did he not win any of those states, he got clobbered in all of them.

What does this bode for the rest of the schedule? IMO, more of the same. Obama will win states with the right demographic but lose the big states by large margins. What is going to happen to push Obama to victories in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, the 3 biggest prizes remaining? Can a nominee lose New York, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida and Michigan by wide margins?

The AP reports:

At a rally in Chicago, Obama delivered a swipe at Clinton, telling supporters the race was between him and a candidate who accepts money from "special interests in Washington."

During her speech tonight to supporters in New York, Clinton struck a different tone, congratulating Obama on his victories.

"I look forward to our campaigns and our debates about how to leave this country better for the next generation," she told supporters who cheered her.

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Bump and Update: CNN calls California for Hillary Clinton. This is huge.

Update: Check out this California election result map and click on "by city." Obama won: San Louis Obispo, Chico and Eureka -- that's it. In 2004, the major recipient of donations in 2004 was G.W. Bush. San Luis Obispo leans Republican. The last Democrat to win there was Lyndon B. Johnson. Chico is in Butte County which supported GW Bush in 2000 and 2004.

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California Dreaming...The polls just closed in California. Now we see who won the big prize. Offcial election results available here.

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