By Big Tent Democrat

Hillary Clinton appears to have won a substantial victory in California capping off a very bad night for Barack Obama.

The three most highly contested states on Super Tuesday were Massachusetts, New Jersey and California. Obama was blown out in each of them.

Some bloggers and the Obama Network (NBC) will try to spin this away. But the respective speeches given by each of the candiates told the real tale. Clinton was ebulliant. Obama flat.

Of course anything can happen but I think Hillary Clinton stopped Barack Obama for good tonight. I know a lot of bloggers and the Media will go on and on about delegate counts but the point is Obama had his fair shot and he did not deliver today. I do not think he will have another one.

Update: Obama wins Alaska. MSNBC calls Missouri for Obama. Hillary's leading in New Mexico.

Update: Missouri at 97% in is 4,000 votes ahead to Obama. I just checked the counties with some precincts out and they are strong Obama counties so I won't be surprised if he wins there. But they will split the delegates so the effect won't be much.

Obama wins Colorado. He's speaking now. It's the unity and change theme, no red or blue states, just the United States.

Update: Hillary wins Arizona, Obama wins Utah and Idaho. Obama advisor David Axelrod: "We feel good about the ten states we won, they feel good about the seven states they won." What he leaves out is the size of the states Hillary won -- New York and Mass. are not equivalent to Utah and North Dakota.

Update: Projections give Illinois and Georgia to Obama. Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee projected for Hillary.

Update: Hillary wins New York, New Jersey, Massachussetts. Obama wins CT, Delaware, Kansas, MN, Alabama, North Dakota. 9:00 MT: polls now closing in California.

More....

6:20 pm: I'm at Morey Middle School in Denver. I got here early, around 5:50 pm. There were Obama signs everywhere and lots of Obama volunteers and I didn't see any for Hillary. At least 10 caucuses are meeting here.

I got in line. Within 10 minutes, there was a huge line behind me. Almost everyone is an Obama supporter.

We're all directed to go to the auditorium for a pre-caucus meeting where they will explain the rules. Then people will go to where their caucus is meeting. I get to stay in the auditorium as mine is meeting in here. They say there are several hundred people waiting to get in. A tv camera crew just arrived. [More....]

Here's a thread to vent about the media coverage of today's vote -- and to discuss the exit polls and pollsters. Are the pollsters as wrong as they were in New Hampshire or are they getting it right?

What network has the most neutral coverage? The most informative? Who are you muting today?

(Joe Lieberman, Lindsay Graham, John McCain watching the Superbowl)

I forget sometimes that Republicans also are voting today. If you've got any thoughts about them, here's a thread.

So far, Mike Huckabee won West Virginia.

By Big Tent Democrat

Two metrics.

How many states will each candidate (GOP and Dem) win?

And specifically who will win Mass, Cali, NJ, CT, MO, MN, CO and AZ?

I predict on those particular states Obama (MA, CA, CT, MN and CO) and Clinton (NJ, MO and AZ.)

How about you? This is an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

David Brooks writes what he thinks is a damning column regarding Hillary Clinton's life long fight for universal health care. I believe it reveals Hillary the Fighter, the anti-triangulator. Brooks writes:

By Big Tent Democrat

And if Zogby is right, Barack Obama wins the nomination tonight, not on delegates, but on winning. [NOTE: I do not believe Zogby is an honest pollster, I believe he is a disingenuous pundit.]

Zogby has Obama winning by 13 points in California. If that happens, it is over. No spin. No excuses. Of course if Hillary wins by double digits, as SurveyUSA predicts, then I believe Hillary wins the nomination tonight also.

I know, I know, the race "goes on," but it will largely be over in either scenario imo. Of course, if it is neither scenario, we will have to look to the other states to see if tonight effectively ends the the race. And yes, I believe winning is more important than the exact delegate count tonight. No matter what the Media says.

More . . .

Hillary Clinton is holding a national town hall meeting now on the Hallmark Channel. I just tuned in, Bill Clinton is appearing from San Francisco, fielding questions from the audience for Hillary to answer.

You can also watch at Hillary's website. She's discussing veterans right now and promising legislation.

Now they are in Birmingham, AL, and an attendee asks a question about outsourcing jobw.

It's very low key, not like a campaign stump speech but a conversation.

By Big Tent Democrat

Jeralyn's buddy, Dan Abrams of MSNBC, is now talking about the anti-Hillary bias in the Media now. Good for him.

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John Nichols of the The Nation says it is possible:

What would a sweep look like? Obama would not have to win every state or every delegate, but he would have to dominate the map in a manner that left no doubt that Democratic primary and caucus voters prefer his candidacy to that of the woman who not long ago was busy outlining her Democratic National Convention acceptance speech.

Fair enough, if rather vague. But Nichols outlines his vision of this sweep:

By Big Tent Democrat

Ezra Klein notes Krugman writing:

By my count, 3 of my last 10 columns have criticized Barack Obama. 7 of Frank Rich’s 10 last columns, and 6 of Maureen Dowd’s last 10 columns, have criticized Hillary Clinton. But, of course, that’s different: Hillary is eeevil, and deserves it.

By Big Tent Democrat

Paul Krugman puts his finger on it:

. . . [M]any health care experts like Mr. Gruber strongly support mandates. . . . [T]here is, indeed, no guarantee that Mrs. Clinton would, if elected, be able to pass anything like her current health care plan.

But while it’s easy to see how the Clinton plan could end up being eviscerated, it’s hard to see how the hole in the Obama plan can be repaired. Why? Because Mr. Obama’s campaigning on the health care issue has sabotaged his own prospects.

. . . If Mr. Obama gets to the White House and tries to achieve universal coverage, he’ll find that it can’t be done without mandates — but if he tries to institute mandates, the enemies of reform will use his own words against him. . . .

John Edwards has expressed the same view of this as Krugman did. It seems impossible for me to see Edwards endorsing Obama's approach to health care, given his expressed views.