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After Super Tuesday

By Big Tent Democrat

Unlike the entire world apparently, I see last night's results as the beginning of the end for the Obama Presidential campaign. My thinking is fairly straightforward - Obama's has been a Media and Mo campaign to knock off the resilient favorite. He has had a ten day stretch that is not likely to be matched again. From the Media coverage of the South Carolina primary, to the Kennedy endorsements, to polls showing him with a REAL chance of winning states like Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, this was a perfect storm for the Obama campaign. If he could have won Massachusetts and either New Jersey or California, he would have gained a stranglehold on the nomination. And not only did he not win any of those states, he got clobbered in all of them.

What does this bode for the rest of the schedule? IMO, more of the same. Obama will win states with the right demographic but lose the big states by large margins. What is going to happen to push Obama to victories in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, the 3 biggest prizes remaining? Can a nominee lose New York, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Florida and Michigan by wide margins?

More . . .

For that is what is being posited here as the Obama case. Because he won states like Delaware, Connecticut, North Dakota and Idaho, Obama's spinners are claiming he had a big night. I simply do not see how that can be. What last night revealed is no amount of spin, mo, Media and endorsements can get Obama over the hump in big heterogenuous states. Indeed, his performance in the big states has underperformed polls and expectations.

Tom Edsall writes:

Hillary Clinton's strength among core Democratic constituencies -- women, Latinos and working class whites -- pushed her to victory in the mega-state primaries of California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts on Tuesday, slowing, at least for the moment, the momentum that had been building behind Barack Obama's bid for the nomination. Clinton's solid majorities among women, who make up from 55 to 59 percent of voters in Democratic primaries, remains her most reliable source of support, although her backing among Latino voters not only helped her win California, but should work to her advantage in the potentially crucial March 4 Texas primary. . . .

The dynamics of this race are now set in stone. No amount of Media and Mo and Kennedys can get Obama over the hump. He can not win women, Latinos, older voters and lower income non-African Americans. The Obama coalition is simply not enough. I discussed this problem for the past month.

The bottom line is nothing has changed from Nevada. Obama can not break through. He will not be the Presidential nominee. He will be the Vice Presidential nominee.

[Update (TL): Comments over 225, now closing.]

< CNN's Delegate Assessment | Super Tuesday Post Mortem Open Thread >
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  • Display: Sort:
    You may be right (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Molly Bloom on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:49:53 AM EST
    but I haven't seen the delegate count this AM. If its close, this will go another round. In the meantime, get ready for a rash of postings that you are anti-Obama. Again.

    BTW I saw some idiot on TPM said you were "Paul Rosenberg posting as BTD." LOL!

    "Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"

    Can someone explain to me what Obama is (none / 0) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:52:44 AM EST
    going to change to give him win in Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania?

    The demos tell it all.

    And the fact is we probably would have known this already if Michigan and Florida were contested.

    Obama would have lost just as he did in Cali, NJ and Mass.

    Those 3 states told the tale of the night.

    [ Parent ]

    What about all the pre-Mar 4 States? (none / 0) (#7)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:58:58 AM EST
    He's going to win probably 8 of the next 9 primaries. I'd say the demos of Texas point to toss-up. So a somewhat-narrow win in Ohio puts this thing probably at a slightly lean Obama heading into Pennsylvania.

    Don't forget there are about ~400 delegates at stake before Mar 4th. Most of the demos/caucus nature of those sites favor possible Obama wins of +20-30 percent.

    [ Parent ]

    Say he wins (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:01:57 AM EST
    them by a net 100 delegates.

    He'll lose that and more in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

    He finshes down a hundred.

    Hillary will be the nominee.

    [ Parent ]

    Say what? (none / 0) (#22)
    by Geekesque on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:11:00 AM EST
    Down 33 delegates in each of those states?

    What if he loses each 52-47?  That would limit his delegate losses to about 30-40 total.

    [ Parent ]

    Well (none / 0) (#33)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:18:24 AM EST
    what if he wins? See, you do not accept my premise apparently. that he will not run close in any of those 3 states.

    [ Parent ]
    because it makes no sense... (none / 0) (#67)
    by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:34:18 AM EST
    ...coming off two weeks of "Obama wins" headlines, since he's likely to win most of the remaining contests this month.  That, plus his financial advantages, gives him a good shot at leveraging his way to a closer finish in Texas, and maybe even a win or very close race in Ohio.  Rhode Island and Vermont will probably wind up in his pocket, too.  Every little bit helps.

    We then have a few more contests before Pennsylvania, most of which he's likely to win.  And he'll still have more money than Clinton.
    Again, decent shot to keep it close--40-45% is enough to limit the damage from a Clinton win.  

    She still will be fortunate if she has a pledged delegate advantage at all, and then there are still several states left after Pennsylvania, including the decent-sized prize of North Carolina, which I expect Obama has a decent chance to win.  I think he'll win 2/3 of the remaining contests on the schedule, and that he'll limit her margins in Texas and Pennsylvania while winning or keeping it a little closes in Indiana and Ohio.  

    What if Clinton wins Texas but loses Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont and every state between now and March 4?  I think she's done if that happens.

    What's interesting to me is that I said "if Obama's even one delegate ahead after 2/5, this thing is over", and you agreed with me.  What changed?

    [ Parent ]

    As opposed to the 10 days of headlines (none / 0) (#102)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:47:29 AM EST
    we just experienced?

    Start making sense.

    [ Parent ]

    He continues to get favorable media... (none / 0) (#113)
    by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:51:57 AM EST
    ...and she does not.  He eroded her lead enough in the big states to pull slightly ahead in pledged delegates won.  That's not insignificant.
    He will do likewise, even if she wins those three states.

    And you ignore the other 19 contests at peril to the credibility of the argument.  He will likely win most of them, including some decent sized states, and some of them by large margins.  

    [ Parent ]

    Not like the last 10 days (5.00 / 1) (#155)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:11:25 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Geek, if you think Obama is going to (none / 0) (#68)
    by MarkL on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:34:28 AM EST
    lose all the big states to a DEMOCRAT, then you should support Hillary, because surely he'll also lose them in the general election.

    [ Parent ]
    Engage in much more intensive campaigning. (none / 0) (#15)
    by Geekesque on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:04:17 AM EST
    15,000 person rallies only deliver so much.  He will also have to adjust his messaging--one mistake he made was having about one week of public outreach to Latino voters.

    Those contests are month away.  Iowa was a month ago.  LOTS can happen in a month.  

    [ Parent ]

    Well (none / 0) (#32)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:17:36 AM EST
    I think you are looking for something that I do not think can happen. But time will tell.

    [ Parent ]
    Anything can happen, especially in politics. (none / 0) (#51)
    by Angel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:27:24 AM EST
    I agree that Penn, Ohio & Texas are good states for HRC.  Don't know what the split will be.  But as I said, anything can happen.  I'm hoping that the press will start scrutinizing BO's record.  So far, IMO, this has been nothing but media hype.  Like Steve Clemons said, he's like a rock star right now.  When does the balloon burst?  I say only after people really look at his record.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh (none / 0) (#45)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:24:23 AM EST
    Your argument kinda sounds like "we weren't able to overcome Hillary's affinity with the Latino community in one week - so let's take 2 or 3 weeks!"    She's spent years on that and I don't think he will be getting anywhere.  All that free publicity on Piolin's radio show didn't help him in CA.

    I'm not on board with BTD's theory altogether and I think Obama can run close in Ohio.  But TX and PA will remain very unfavorable for him.  Personally, I think we still have a race.

    [ Parent ]

    Neither high nor low (5.00 / 1) (#239)
    by Camorrista on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:22:34 AM EST
    Though I enjoy BTD's contrarianism, I don't think he quite makes his case. On the other hand, here, as Al Gore might say, are some inconvenient truths:

    Though the Obama camp is bragging of his gains among Latinos, this boast should be taken with a grain of salt: in Arizona and California, the two primary states with large Latino populations, Clinton won easily.  Obama won Colorado and New Mexico, which were caucus states--with unrecorded Latino participation in those caucuses.

    In fact, all in all, it would be safe to say that except for Illinois (his home state) and Georgia and Alabama (states with large African-American populations), Obama won by serious margins only in caucus states.  

    His two primary state victories were squeakers--Connecticut by 3.5 per cent, Missouri by 1 percent.  In the other primary states, Clinton beat him handily.  

    And, yes, I do realize that Clinton didn't beat him as handily as the polls anticipated a few weeks ago, but isn't it time to put that poor overused cudgel back in its holster?  (I've actually seen messages on other sites loudly arguing Obama actually won California because he only lost by 10 points while a month ago, he was behind by 20 points.)

    No doubt Obama had a good night, but by any realistic standard, so did Clinton.  The actual result both in delegates and popular votes was a draw, which even cable-TV anchors--not a group known for antagonism towards Obama--were willing to acknowledge.  

    Yes, Obama did better than his expectations of a few weeks ago, and, yes, Clinton did worse.  So what?  Did anybody with a grain of sense truly believe that a young, charismatic candidate with a huge bankroll wouldn't eventually catch up to the woman people love to hate?  Now we have a tie.  The question is what's next.

    Obviously caucus states have the same weight as primary states in the delegate count--that's why the count is so close.  But what yesterday indicated was that Obama--momentum or not, cash advantage or not--can win a primary in a high-population state only with the near-total support of African-American voters.  Missouri was a victory for him, but a victory with a sting in its tail.

    This isn't to say he can't expand his voter pool, or that Clinton doesn't have dangerous obstacles of her own, but it's a bit premature for Obama admirers to start secretly dreaming of invitations to the inaugural.

    [ Parent ]

    He will not be the Vice-Presidential nominee. (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by Geekesque on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:57:52 AM EST
    If he loses, he's not going to become a hood ornament, which is what he would be in the Clinton administration.  It would also absolutely destroy his brand--from candid uniter to Hillary's yes-man.  

    What is going to happen to push him to victory in the big three remaining states?  He can outspend her and out organize her.  He has to overcome her ethnic firewall in Texas, but she has to overcome her problem with white men.

    New York and New Jersey were never supposed to be competitive.  Just like Clinton was never going to be competitive in Illinois.  (Note that NY was a lot closer than IL).

    There are no more mega-primary days.  There'll be two solid weeks where the campaign will focus on the big two states on March 4.  And he will be able to outspend her in those states significantly.

    Outspend and outorganize? (none / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:00:26 AM EST
    So that is the magic bullet that is going make women, Latinos and the working class vote for him?

    You simply have no answer. You are suggesting more of the same. More of the same won't work.

    [ Parent ]

    No. He needs to adjust some of his messaging (none / 0) (#17)
    by Geekesque on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:06:50 AM EST
    too.  Imo, there wasn't enough time between Iowa/NH and Super Tuesday to adjust that messaging.  You don't break a 75-25 advantage amongst Latinos by doing 6 days of outreach.

    Clinton has her own demographic problems--men an Af-Am--that she'll have to overcome.

    He lost NJ because it's in Hillary's back yard.

    If he can win MO, he can win Ohio.

    [ Parent ]

    Bad analysis: Obama won (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by rhbrandon on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:07:55 AM EST
    in only Jackson, Cole, Boone, St. Louis counties, St. Louis City, and only one upstate rural county (Nodaway). On the other hand, Clinton likely won at least five of the state's nine congressional districts.

    He only won by 10,000 overall because he won in the five traditional Democratic bastions that will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is in November, Clinton or Obama. His 49%-48% win means those delegates split by overall vote means no more than a edge of one on that basis.

    In short, Clinton may get most of the delegates here.

    Among Republicans, it was virtually a three-way split of voters. That speaks to far greater disunity among GOP voters than one can argue for Democratic voters. This state is far more likely to go Democratic regardless of the nominee in November than the guess would have been prior to the 2004 election.

    [ Parent ]

    Adjust his messaging? (none / 0) (#39)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:21:10 AM EST
    Wait, who has been advocating that for YEARS now?

    I think it is too late to do that.

    [ Parent ]

    yeah, you know (none / 0) (#46)
    by english teacher on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:24:39 AM EST
    triangulate.

    [ Parent ]
    MO was 49% BO, 48% HRC, and she got 15 (none / 0) (#56)
    by Angel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:29:37 AM EST
    delegates to his 6.  

    [ Parent ]
    huh? (none / 0) (#83)
    by andreww on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:40:55 AM EST
    I think there were 72 delegates at stake in MO.

    [ Parent ]
    CNN Now Has It As A Tie For Delegates In MO (none / 0) (#94)
    by MO Blue on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:45:17 AM EST
    Obama 30
    Clinton 30

    I'm not an expert on the counties in MO, but at first glance Obama won big in the typical Dem counties and Clinton won all the rest. Wouldn't it be better to have a candidate that can garner more votes in the non Democratic counties?

    [ Parent ]

    Ahhhh (5.00 / 2) (#142)
    by rebecca on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:06:30 AM EST
    You're forgetting the Obama rules.  Hillary voters will vote for the annointed one while Obama voters will more than likely take their toys and go home if she wins.  So there.  

    It's really amazing how Obama gets spun.  When he wins it's over for Hillary but when he loses he didn't really lose and it's actually good for him and bad for her.  About the only good thing about his winning and Hillary losing will be seeing the heads exploding when the Obama rules inevitably change into the McCain rules.  

    [ Parent ]

    Obama (none / 0) (#240)
    by standingup on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:29:25 AM EST
    won in Kansas City, St. Louis, St. Louis county, Boone, Cole and Nodaway.  The cities are typically the bluest areas of the state.  My guess would be McCaskill's list was key in helping him get out the vote in those areas.  I don't have anything for comparison but would bet the turnout in those areas was higher than the others and just enough to give him the edge.

    [ Parent ]
    more of the same will work (none / 0) (#185)
    by english teacher on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:23:44 AM EST
    if the goal is to seriously spend down hillary's campaign chest before the general and effectively muddle her message with a large part of a formerly reliable constituency.

    more of the same would accomplish that very well.

    [ Parent ]

    Candid Uniter? (none / 0) (#65)
    by Edgar08 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:32:40 AM EST
    Have you finally convinced yourself that such a thing actually exists?

    The idea that such a thing could exist, a failure to understand that being candid and unity are not complimentary, but at odds with each other, remains, I guess, the line of demarcation between the two campaigns and sets of supporters.

    Again, either it's an attempt to sell a candidate to a set of voters who do believe being candid and unifying is possible, and the Obama folks, underneath the advertising campaign, are smart enough to know it as such.

    Or you folks actually believe it, in which case an Obama administration will not be a competent administration.

    I suspect it's the former.  

    Anyway, I, for one, do not believe it under any circumstances.  There are many false choices in politics.  But candid unity is not one of them.  It is a real choice, and one, in my estimation, must decide at some point what is more important to them, if one values both as one says they do.

    For my part, neither concern me that much.

    There are bigger fish to fry when it comes to running the U.S. Government.


    [ Parent ]

    and who wants to (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by english teacher on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:00:10 AM EST
    unite candidly or otherwise with the corrupt regime now running it.

    to me the most glaring objection to obama and his supporters is the failure to recognize that the corrupt republican party has a death grip on the executive branch.  it is deeply infested with partisans, back stabbers, and dirty tricksters courtesy of the republican party.  they will make mince meat of obama, but since he'll never win anyway, i guess that part of it doesn't really matter.  

    [ Parent ]

    The tone of his campaign (5.00 / 1) (#161)
    by Edgar08 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:12:33 AM EST
    Leads me to believe he, himself, doesn't believe the "Candid Uniter" crap that is used to sell his candidacy.

    I think Clinton is the stronger of the two, but the tone of his campaign has shown two things, 1) how he sells himself is, at best, inspirational, at worst, hypocritical, and 2)  he can be as nasty and as UN-unifying as he needs to be as he sees fit when the time comes.

    [ Parent ]

    i agree (none / 0) (#173)
    by english teacher on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:17:49 AM EST
    and i agree if you are suggesting that that is the quality he lacks apropos hillary which is the real difference maker for her in the general.  people have confidence that she will fight back.  you can take that to the bank.  that really means so much to the middle voting reagan democrats that obama seems never to have heard of.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yes and (none / 0) (#211)
    by IndependantThinker on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:36:11 AM EST
    He and his supporters will pull the race card against the republicans if he wins the Nomination. He will do and say anything to win.

    [ Parent ]
    Unfortunate (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by Claw on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:46:05 AM EST
    I am dismayed that TL seems to have become HillaryCLinton.com.  It's fine to have opinions but when "analysis" becomes so colored by the author's biases...well, it's unfortunate.  BTD, I often enjoy your posts and I would happily vote for either candidate.  Let's just try to inject some objectivity into the Clinton v. Obama discussion.  


    I think your comment (5.00 / 1) (#134)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:02:46 AM EST
    shows a bias that makes it impossible for you to understand my post.

    There is no bias. There is an informed opinion that may be right or may be wrong.

    Your inability to ADDRESS what I wrote without accusing me of bias tells me you are not capable of having such a discussion.

    [ Parent ]

    Will Obama's present votes (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by MarkL on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:46:20 AM EST
    come back to bite him?
    According to a diary I read over at Mydd,
    The Illinois NOW chapter was very much against people in safe districts (such as Obama's) voting present on choice issues.
    It appears that a previous NOW president was lying on Obama's behalf in this regard (she was NOT President when the votes took place).
    If these facts hold up, Obama could and should have a problem.

    This comes from the President of NOW (none / 0) (#182)
    by MarkL on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:22:33 AM EST
    in Il. ---you can't discount what she says.

    [ Parent ]
    asdf (none / 0) (#189)
    by MarkL on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:26:14 AM EST

    Basically, the OFB is once again spreading the lie that Obama voted present as a part of strategy to give legislators in conservative districts cover for voting "present" rather than cast an anti-choice vote.

    Here's the problem - most of the votes in question took place after the year 2000 and the woman in the campaign video who leads you to believe that she was president of Chicago NOW at the time of the votes is engaging in some chronoglogical slight of hand.  Lorna hasn't actually been a member of NOW since 1999 and was not in Springfield nor part of the campaign against the bills at the time.

    Bonnie Grabenhofer who was president of NOW AT THE TIME OF THE VOTES says that they very much wanted senators to vote actively pro-choice.

    Below the fold is the email that she sent out in response to the Obama campaign video:

    I thought I'd take a moment to try to add some clarity to the anti-choice Present votes in IL.

    Lorna Brett was president of CNOW from 1996-1998. She was not president at the time we were lobbying on these bills. Five of those votes occurred in the 92nd General Assembly session in 2001. NOW records indicate that she hasn't been a member since 1999. She was not there when we were lobbying against these bills. She is using her very old affiliation with NOW to try to validate her criticism of Hillary Clinton.

    Voting Present on those bills was a strategy that Illinois NOW did not support. We made it clear at the time that we disagreed with the strategy. We wanted legislators to take a stand against the awful anti-choice bills being put forth. Voting Present doesn't provide a platform from which to show leadership and say with conviction that we support a woman's right to choose and these bills are unacceptable.

    The Present strategy was devised to give political cover to legislators in conservative districts. Barack Obama did not represent a conservative district; he could have voted No with very little negative consequence in his district.

    - Bonnie Grabenhofer
    IL NOW State President



    [ Parent ]
    Thank you.....!! (5.00 / 0) (#214)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:37:46 AM EST
    Was looking for this all last week. Do you have a link?

    [ Parent ]
    Except that (none / 0) (#215)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:38:14 AM EST
    the Illinois chapter of planned parenthood was the group behind the strategy..

    As ABCNews.com's Political Radar blog noted on July 17, Obama cast his "present" votes on the parental notification bills with the support of Illinois Planned Parenthood:

        When Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., voted "present," rather than "yes" or "no" on a handful of controversial abortion votes in the Illinois state senate, he did so with the explicit support of the president and CEO of Illinois Planned Parenthood Council.

        "We at Planned Parenthood view those as leadership votes," Pam Sutherland, the president and CEO of the Illinois Planned Parenthood Council, told ABC News. "We worked with him specifically on his strategy. The Republicans were in control of the Illinois Senate at the time. They loved to hold votes on 'partial birth' and 'born alive'. They put these bills out all the time ... because they wanted to pigeonhole Democrats."

        Speaking to ABC News as Obama was preparing to join Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and the wife of Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., in addressing Planned Parenthood's national conference in Washington, D.C., Sutherland said Obama approached her in the late 1990s and worked with her and others in crafting the strategy of voting "present." She remembers meeting with Obama outside of the Illinois Senate chambers on the Democratic side of the aisle. She and Obama finished their conversation in his office.

        "He came to me and said: 'My members are being attacked. We need to figure out a way to protect members and to protect women,' " said Sutherland in recounting her conversation with Obama. "A 'present' vote was hard to pigeonhole which is exactly what Obama wanted."

        "What it did," she continued, "was give cover to moderate Democrats who wanted to vote with us but were afraid to do so" because of how their votes would be used against them electorally. "A 'present' vote would protect them. Your senator voted 'present.' Most of the electorate is not going to know what that means."

        While Sutherland was happy to give Obama latitude in voting "present," rather than "no," she was quick to note that "it's also not a 'yes' vote."

        As reported by The Wall Street Journal, some of the specific abortion votes in question include two occasions in 1997 (HB 382 and SB 230) when he voted "present" on bills which would have prohibited a procedure referred to by its critics as "partial-birth abortion." In 2001, he voted "present" on two parental notification abortion bills (HB 1900 and SB 562), and he voted "present" on a series of bills (SB 1093, 1094, 1095) that sought to protect a child if he or she survived a failed abortion.

        [...]

        But while he competes for the Democratic presidential nomination, he can use his cooperation with Planned Parenthood in Illinois to help assure supporters of abortion rights across the country that he will not cross them.

        "Obama made sure those bills got as few votes as possible for passage," said Sullivan [sic].

    So Illinois Now is upset he was working with PP.  Big deal.

    [ Parent ]

    Coverage (5.00 / 1) (#141)
    by TheRealFrank on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:06:16 AM EST
    The main problem for Clinton is positive media coverage. She'll be struggling to get any.

    So, while her base won't crumble quickly in those big states, the danger is that the media Obama lovefest will pick off just enough voters to give him the edge in delegates. The positive coverage for Obama won't be as intense as over the last period, but it may still be enough, especially since there'll be several states that he's likely to win. "Obama wins again" will be a recurrent headline.

    Which I think is why she wants debates. She knows she's good in debates and that voters need to see her without the (negative) media filter applied.


    But voter motivation is what matters (none / 0) (#205)
    by cymro on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:33:31 AM EST
    The premise of your argument is that the media coverage will swing more voters to Obama. But the core Clinton voters are not going to be so swayed by all the hype, and every time she is attacked it just consolidates their support.

    Yes, Obama can whip up a lot of excitement among young voters, as he did in NY, MA, CA. But as was demonstrated in those states, that excitement is not enough to overcome Hillary's solid base among women, older voters, blue collar voters, Latino voters. These constituencies are not nearly as volatile and available to Obama as you would need them to be for your argument to work. The Clinton organization can get out the vote, and knows that those voters are solid supporters.

    Anyway, may the best woman win, as the saying goes :-)

    [ Parent ]

    I agree (5.00 / 1) (#159)
    by Grey on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:11:45 AM EST
    MSNBC and the rest are spinning hard for Obama this morning.  For the last week or so, all I heard was that whomever won CA would have the big night and the big 'mo.  Clinton won, so now the spin is spinning itself into a semicircle.

    They're dismissing CA, NY and NJ because they're always blue in the general and they're hyping CO, which Obama won, because it's a swing state. If they had an ounce of integrity, they would also say that Clinton has proved she can win in the South and that Obama has proved he has problems with Democrats. If he didn't, he would have won CA or, at the very least, MA, given all the state elected officials were for him and he cruised on 10 days of media love.

    The question must be asked: with all the media love, all the talk of momentum and all the time he has had: if all Obama can win are caucus states plus a couple of open primaries, isn't it time to dial it back a little?  The last few weeks have been a perfect storm of adulation and incredibly positive press coverage and Obama still could not capitalize.  On the other hand, Clinton has been sitting in a perfect storm of crappy coverage, derision (which was manifest last night when pundits were laughing at her even while reporting the states she was winning) and great speculation as to her demise and she still won big in the large states and in the South.  Even MO is a tie; Sen. McCaskill managed  2,000 extra votes for Obama and we're calling that a huge win for him?  In what sane universe is that huge?

    Last night's results are very clear.  The popular vote is clear.  The winning coalition is clear.  Clinton won the night and she is well positioned to win PA, TX and possibly OH.  Are we really going to say, with any degree of self-awareness, that the candidate who the big states last night and who is likely to win the next big pots is not the favorite for the nomination?

    No.  Look, I'm a Clinton supporter, so I am not without bias; this race may be tied in delegates at the moment, but the night belonged to Clinton and she is the favorite for the nomination.


    I think (I hope) people said last night (5.00 / 1) (#179)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:20:40 AM EST
    that things are too screwed up.  We need a pragmatist for President, and maybe the hopes and dreams can fall into a VP role. Maybe things will get cleaned up after 8 years and the hopes and dreams can become president.

    And BTW:  Anyone who thinks Obama's win in Idaho means anything, think again. I'm from that area. Idaho is home of the Arian Nations, not a welcome place for AA's.  It is only their Clinton hate that overrules their bigotry.  I believe the vote last night there was AGAINST Clinton, not FOR Obama.

    A True Pregressive? (5.00 / 1) (#202)
    by mmc9431 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:30:47 AM EST
    I still haven't understood where this image of Obama being a true liberal comes from. I know he was against the war, but when it came to being able to vote on it, he's gone along with Bush every step. He did vote for the Patriot Act. He advocates school vouchers. He's very vague on civil unions let alone gay marriage. I just haven't seen the fire on any of these issues, particularly before he was a candidate. He also was very quiet over Katrina at a time when the people of the gulf states needed a loud and passionate voice. Even now with the FISA Bill pending, I haven't heard any passion to ignite his base to fight it. And his Missouri backer, McCaskill has already voted for the Bush bill. I'm not defending Hilary, but I do wonder where this image came from.

    New progressive (none / 0) (#231)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:56:04 AM EST
    Libertarian lite progressive. Against the war, but they want to opt out of the bits that they don't like, paying for health care etc.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama has lost his mind.. (5.00 / 1) (#233)
    by ajain on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:58:49 AM EST
    I just saw him on CNN saying that he thinks the Clintons have thrown all sorts of dirt at him and so he can take whatever the Republicans throw at him.
    This is absolutely ridiculous. There hasn't been a single attack ad from the Clintons. Obama has already done "Harry and Louise" and still lost.
    He is really in over his head.
    Stop demonizing the Clintons just because you have no better answers.

    I disagree (none / 0) (#3)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:55:44 AM EST
    Obama looks like he'll probably win at least 7 out of the next 9 primaries before March 4th.

    Clinton winning 2 out of the next 9 and not getting completely blown out in the rest is probably a best case scenario for her. Best case for Obama is winning 9 of 9 handily and going up maybe +100 pledged delegates to take the overall delegate lead.

    That's got to have some effect on his momentum. Clinton's best states are probably Ohio and Pennsylvania. She'll probably take Ohio with similar margins to New Jersey. I'd say Texas is a toss-up (large black vote, Austin for O, Tenn. like characteristics for the rest).

    Then there are 7 weeks after March 4th until Pennsylvania. Who knows what will happen then...

    Obama's momentum can NOT (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:57:50 AM EST
    be better than it was in the last 10 days.

    It simply can not be better.

    Nothing will change. Hillary win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania and wins the nomination.

    [ Parent ]

    And? (none / 0) (#10)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:00:54 AM EST
    The 'mo for Obama over the last two weeks closed a possible Clinton +200 delegate win to a tie. I'd say that's a pretty significant influence. (About two weeks ago, Clinton was up 30 in MA, 15 in MO, tied in AL, etc.)

     It didn't push him over the top today, but if it has the same effect in OH and TX...

    [ Parent ]

    And? (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:02:51 AM EST
    So what. Those 22 states are over.

    Texas, Ohio and Pennsyvania. Explain how he can win them.

    [ Parent ]

    Bold claims (none / 0) (#16)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:05:33 AM EST
    Why are you so sure Clinton will win TX? And why would Clinton be able to blow out Obama in OH? I'd predict, at best, Clinton gets NJ-like numbers there.

    [ Parent ]
    NJ-like numbers (none / 0) (#30)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:16:12 AM EST
    are pretty bad for Obama it seems to me.

    [ Parent ]
    NJ was +11 delegates for Clinton (none / 0) (#36)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:20:02 AM EST
    She'd have to beat him by something like 65-35 for her to get the 30-40 you're thinking of. NJ like numbers just won't do it (the states are actually about the same size in delegates)

    [ Parent ]
    Do you have a link?

    [ Parent ]
    Not yet (none / 0) (#86)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:42:49 AM EST
    Heard it on the TV, maybe from Chuck Todd? Seems about right anyway; 10% win of 140 delegates, given the CD rules...

    [ Parent ]
    Ther number I have seen (none / 0) (#100)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:46:31 AM EST
    have it much wider than that.

    [ Parent ]
    According to CNN (none / 0) (#115)
    by blueaura on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:52:32 AM EST
    She wins with the same coalition of voters at work (none / 0) (#97)
    by rhbrandon on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:46:02 AM EST
    in California. States that have an Obama-friendly demographic have had their say, as was their right.

    And even if Clinton gets "NJ" numbers in OH, it's still a win for her and loss for Obama.

    [ Parent ]

    uhh... (none / 0) (#61)
    by english teacher on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:31:16 AM EST
    if it has the same effect in pennsylvania and ohio as it did yesterday, he will still lose.  

    [ Parent ]
    Typical (none / 0) (#4)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:56:50 AM EST
    So now you are using Florida and Michigan as evidence of the invincibility of Hillary?  Have you completely discarded the notion of fairness in your commentary?

    Clinton 900 delegates
    Obama 824

    Yup.  It's all over certainly.  

    And apparently Illinois just doesn't count in all of this yet New York certainly does.  Nothing like a little consistency.  

    I am not deciding who the nominee is (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:59:08 AM EST
    I am expressing m views. Fairness dictates you address what I wrote.

    To wit, how cna Obama win Texas, Penn and Ohio?

    He can't. Therefore, he loses.

    [ Parent ]

    Simple (none / 0) (#13)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:02:56 AM EST
    He wins WA, WI, VA, MD, DC, LA. That alone is more than OH + TX combined. I'd also say the demo of TX looks at least favorable for Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    And Pennsylvania? (none / 0) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:08:21 AM EST
    My point is s simple one. Hillary will carry a 100-200 delegate lead after Pennsylvania.

    NOT counting MI and FL.

    In what scenario does the leader in delegates not become the nominee?

    [ Parent ]

    Huh? (none / 0) (#23)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:11:06 AM EST
    Say Obama and Clinton split TX. Clinton picks up +50 delegates from Ohio (that would be a massive whupping of Obama). I'd say Obama comes in with +100 delegates from pre-Mar 4 states.

    At that point, it's anybody's game. The states that come after PA favor Obama too.

    [ Parent ]

    They won't split Texas (none / 0) (#31)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:16:45 AM EST
    That is my premise.

    [ Parent ]
    Weak premise (none / 0) (#37)
    by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:20:08 AM EST
    IMO

    [ Parent ]
    Based on what? (none / 0) (#53)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:28:38 AM EST
    Significant black vote in Texas, plus Austin. Deep South states seem to be generally favorable to Obama.

    The only poll I know of for TX puts them at only a 10% gap, and that poll was before the peak of the Obama surge (if you want to call it that), so it's reasonable to assume that it will be close.

    http://ivrpolls.com/index.php


    [ Parent ]

    Latino and white working class vote (none / 0) (#59)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:30:09 AM EST
    PLUS women mean Clinton by 10-15.

    [ Parent ]
    if that's her margin... (none / 0) (#80)
    by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:39:17 AM EST
    ...then your premise is horribly flawed, because of proportional representation.  She won't get a 200 delegate margin, even if she wins all three of those states by 15 points each.  Obama may win some of the states you dismiss by larger margins, meaning he get a pretty big yield from that.  And North Carolina may go for him too.  

    And the superdelegates aren't going to break 2 to 1 for her anymore, so she's in trouble there, too.

    [ Parent ]

    Sure (none / 0) (#96)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:45:34 AM EST
    You know this why?

    I think you are wrong in eveyr particular on this.

    Break out your calculator. Figure it out.

    [ Parent ]

    Okay, let's look at Cali and NY... (none / 0) (#152)
    by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:10:22 AM EST
    ...bigger states than Ohio and Pennsylvania, more delegates.  Clinton's net edge from NY and Cali combined(where she won by 17 and 10 respectively) looks like it's going to be less than +100.

    Now, let's go with your premise that somehow she wins big in all three of the states mentioned.  That gives her at most an advantage in the ballpark of 100 to 150 delegates.

    Looks good for her so far, right?

    Except there are 19 other states(plus DC) in play, and most of those, some of which have a decent number of delegates, will likely break for Obama.  That gives him more than enough delegates to overcome even that outcome--and I think Ohio will wind up being very close(no more than an 8 point win for her), and that Texas and Pennsylvania will be under 15 point margins.

    [ Parent ]

    Latinos didn't break so heavily for Clinton (none / 0) (#91)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:44:13 AM EST
    ...outside of CA. In NM and AZ it was a lot closer. You've got to figure that's more like what's going to happen in TX.

    [ Parent ]
    So you decide to accept NM and AZ but not CA (none / 0) (#105)
    by rhbrandon on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:48:51 AM EST
    Why the cherrypicking?

    [ Parent ]
    The only other heavily-Latino state left (none / 0) (#167)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:14:55 AM EST
    Is Texas, which I think is probably more similar to AZ and NM. See the IRV cross-tabs below.

    [ Parent ]
    sorry, (none / 0) (#164)
    by cpinva on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:14:28 AM EST
    but va will go for sen. clinton. given the demographics of the state, it very much favors her. sen. obama will probably win the city of richmond (very high african american population), and do decently in the tidewater (same reason), but if sen. clinton's demos hold here, she will win the democratic primary.

    [ Parent ]
    He can't? (none / 0) (#27)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:14:09 AM EST
    As in it isn't possible for him to win any of those states?  PA is 2 months from now.  2 months ago Clinton was projected to win every state but Illinois.  Ohio borders his home state.  He will likely push hard in that state.  Texas he is likely to lose because of the latino vote.

    However, you seem to confuse the Democrat primaries with the Republican primaries.  He doesn't need to win those states.  A close race means equal delegates.  George meant more for Obama than New Jersey or Ma did for Clinton.  Illinois was the largest delegate victory for either candidate.  But please continue to tell us that it doesn't matter.  Oh that's right.  Only Democrats in CA, NY, NJ, and MA matter.

    It seems very apparent that you are trying to call this simply based on your own personal desires.  That is the only way you can ignore that last night was essentially a tie.

    [ Parent ]

    And Obama (none / 0) (#35)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:19:52 AM EST
    was ahead in the Cali polling.

    This was a perfect storm for Obama.

    He will not win those states imo.

    If you think he can suddenly start winning demos he has been losing, then you reject my premise.

    Which is fine. Time will tell.

    [ Parent ]

    How do you know? (none / 0) (#44)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:23:47 AM EST
    The demographics for Texas make it look like a toss-up. The pre-Mar 4 states will surely give Obama a greater lead than whatever Clinton can deliver from OH (tops +20 for Clinton), and probably PA (tops +40) too.


    [ Parent ]
    The demographics in Texas (none / 0) (#54)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:29:24 AM EST
    do NOT make for a toss up.

    I assume you know this.

    [ Parent ]

    Says who? (none / 0) (#95)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:45:25 AM EST
    Let's see the numbers, because what I've been reading says differently.

    [ Parent ]
    Let's see what you have been reading (none / 0) (#104)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:48:24 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    IRV (none / 0) (#118)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:54:21 AM EST
    "November and December polls both gave Hillary Clinton a hefty 51% to 17% lead over Barack Obama, but that has changed considerably over the last two polls. Current results give her just a ten point lead over her main rival, 48% to 38%. Mike Gravel received 3% while 12% were undecided. Much of Obama's increase has come from his increase in support among Latinos. In December, Clinton had a 70 to 7 lead in this group. The January 10 poll was 63-18. In this poll, the margin was down to 60-29. That is still a wide margin, but 2-1 is a lot different from 10-1. Edwards was at 5% among Latinos in the January 10 poll, so Obama's gain cannot be completely explained by his departure. There is a significant gender gap as Latino men under 60 were more likely to support Obama while Latinas under 60 gave Clinton large margins. Clinton easily led both sides of the 60+ group.

    Obama's support among African-Americans actually dipped slightly as the number of undecided women increased. Obama still has a large lead 55-21, with 24% undecided."

    http://ivrpolls.com/

    I think Obama gains in the AA vote, probably not a lot of other movement. So, basically a toss-up.

    [ Parent ]

    No he wasn't (none / 0) (#55)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:29:33 AM EST
    He was not leading in polls on the whole.  A few polls had him winning but the mean was in favor of Clinton.

    http://www.pollster.com/08-CA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

    And you are simply cherrypicking demographics to suit your need.  How does the latino vote help or hurt him in any remaining state other than Texas?  Obama won the white vote in CA last night but I guess that no longer matter.  That was last week's meme.  

    This was certainly not a perfect storm for Obama.  Hillary has a significant advantage in states with strong political machines.  In NJ virtually every elected official is backing Hillary down to the council level.  That is difficult to overcome.

    But there aren't many states left with big Dem machines.  And I fail to see why the delegates in MD or Virginia mean less.   What is more important, winning Ohio by 4 points or winning North Carolina by 20?  

    [ Parent ]

    I am picking nothing (none / 0) (#89)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:43:47 AM EST
    The demographics argument is one that any sentient nbeing would be familair with.

    As for polling the RCP average has Obamna AHEAD.

    Pollster's regression had it a tossup.

    I do not understand what you are trying to do in this thread. Stop the insultds just because my opinion ON THE CAMPAIGN is not favorable to your candidate.

    We do not do that here.

    [ Parent ]

    Huh? (none / 0) (#121)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:55:35 AM EST
    What insults are you referring to?  Please elaborate.  I do see you insulting my intelligence by saying that any sentient being would know what you are talking about.  

    You keep telling us that the demographics mean he can't win.  Yet you haven't shown how that is so.  The overall vote last night was 49-48 Clinton.  Latinos favor Clinton.  Women favor Clinton.  Blacks favor Obama.  White males favor Obama.  Older people favor Clinton.  Younger people favor Obama.  I haven't seen any information on income levels favoring one or the other.  If you have such information that would be interesting.

    So which demographic groups matter most?  And why?  

    I have no problem with your opinions.  We all got them.  But one of the reasons I started to post here was because you were trying to claim that you were objective when clearly you are not.  

    As for this post you are trying to make a counter-factual argument based on specious reasoning that because Hillary may win 3 states she will win the nomination.  She still needs 1100 delegate.  Those 3 states  only have about 550 delegates in total.   Even she gets 60% of those delegates that means she would still need 800 more delegates to get the nomination.  How you think that is a certainty I have absolutely no idea.

    [ Parent ]

    You accuse me of shilling and cherrypicking (none / 0) (#149)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:09:44 AM EST
    I take that as an insult.

    Indeed, I really do not plan to respond to you anymore.

    [ Parent ]

    It is what is (none / 0) (#207)
    by flyerhawk on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:35:21 AM EST
    You seem to find it completely acceptable to demean those who support Obama.  You continue to claim you are neutral.  Yet every single new diary on this site is clearly favorable to Clinton.  

    I ask you to explain your reasoning and all you offer is dismissive comments.  My accusation of cherry picking stems from your selective use of demographics to make a dubious claim(i.e. that Hillary has already won).  

    I am not trying to demean you.  However I will criticize your observed actions.  And you may certainly ignore me if you wish.  That certainly would be the easiest approach for you and would let you continue on without a moment of introspection on your part.

    You're right that all we have are opinions.  But unsupported opinions mean very little and if you dismiss criticisms simply because you don't want to answer them you aren't really supporting your claims.

    [ Parent ]

    Um (none / 0) (#107)
    by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:49:06 AM EST
    You need to take a closer look at which states Ohio borders. :)

    [ Parent ]
    Well... (none / 0) (#14)
    by Claw on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:03:59 AM EST
    I'm not so sure Obama's down for the count.  He seems to have a broader appeal than Clinton (winning more states) but you do well to point out his greatest weakness: The Latino Problem.  We'll see...at least it's interesting.  

    Latino states are mostly done (none / 0) (#18)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:07:12 AM EST
    The only big state with a significant latino population left is Texas.

    Obama actually did okay with the Latino vote outside of CA anyway. It's not a demographic he'll probably ever win, but CA is the only place he really got blown out on it yesterday.

    [ Parent ]

    Still.... (none / 0) (#19)
    by ctrenta on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:08:19 AM EST

    BTD, what kind of evidence can you provide that Barack will lose Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania? Show me the logic here.

    In the event, that Barack "Does" pull something off (still a grandiose scenario IMO) Hillary will wish those Michigan and Florida delegates would count.

    Polling, demographics (none / 0) (#40)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:21:51 AM EST
    the standard stuff.

    [ Parent ]
    I can't find recent polling for these states (none / 0) (#200)
    by cannondaddy on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:29:56 AM EST
    If you have some that's linkable...

    [ Parent ]
    Follow the money (none / 0) (#21)
    by Claw on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:09:08 AM EST
    BTD you shouldn't discount the money issue.  Right now Obama is vastly out-raising Clinton.  Also, to paraphrase Vernon Jones, it's tough to run against a movement.

    Money will not be an issue (none / 0) (#85)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:41:36 AM EST
    for either campaign imo.

    [ Parent ]
    craziness (none / 0) (#24)
    by Nasarius on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:12:17 AM EST
    I can't believe the Obama triumphalism everywhere. He lost CA by 10 points, MA by 15 points, NJ by 10 points. Those are losses, I believe, even by Geekesque's optimistic standards. He was supposed to be competitive in these states (there were a handful of polls that showed him winning CA and MA, loudly trumpeted by DKos, etc). He wasn't. Not even close.

    What's your point? (none / 0) (#29)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:15:56 AM EST
    Clinton wasn't competitive in GA, AL, MN, CO, or IL either. He also picked up the swing states of NM and MO too.

    Frankly, I was surprised that both sides dominated each other so thoroughly in their respective states that they won. Few states were even close (like within 10).

    But, at the end of the day, in a grouping of states that were highly favorable to Clinton, the popular vote split 49% for Clinton and 48% for Obama, as well as an even delegate split. I think the popular vote splits are not likely to be so favorable for her from here on out.

    [ Parent ]

    Your facts are a little off here. HRC didn't (none / 0) (#62)
    by Angel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:31:39 AM EST
    campaign in GA or AL.  CO is a caucus state. IL is BO's state.  And once CA votes are counted, HRC will have approx 54% of the popular vote.

    [ Parent ]
    NJ, NY (none / 0) (#78)
    by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:38:42 AM EST
    New Jersey and New York were Clinton's home state.

    The states with some of the best demographics for Clinton are past now anyway.

    [ Parent ]

    Well spin is spin (none / 0) (#84)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:41:07 AM EST
    New York is where Hillary was a "carpetbagger."

    Missouri is next to Illinois.

    Obama is from Kansas and Hawaii etc.

    But honestly, that is all irrelevant to my point in this post.


    [ Parent ]

    <