Rassmussen tells the tale:

FLORIDA

Obama 40
McCain 50

Clinton 47
McCain 41

Nuff said.

By Big Tent Democrat

Because I love to tweak, SUSA GE Missouri polls:

Obama 45
McCain 48

Clinton 48
McCain 46

Just sayin'

By Big Tent Democrat

Hillary Clinton raised $21 million in April, her second best month ever. Barack Obama raised $31 million. And for the first time, Obama spent more money than he raised. He spent $36 million in April.

For a candidate the media has written off, that's an incredible achievement.

The amount includes the $10 million she raised in one night, but not the $5 million she loaned the campaign. In other words, it's all contributions. The full report is here.

Hillary also picked up two superdelegates yesterday, one in Ohio and one in Massachussetts.

What a great speech. The transcript is here.

We may get to the convention after all. From a newer version of the earlier AP article:

Asked if she now envisioned the race extending beyond June 3, Clinton replied: "It could, I hope it doesn't. I hope it's resolved to everyone's satisfaction by that date, because that's what people are expecting, but we'll have to see what happens."

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The Rules and Bylaws Committee of the DNC today announced how it will proceed at the May 31 hearing at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel. It's open to the public, but you must pre-register.

[T]he rules committee will meet at a Washington area hotel and consider two challenges – including one from Jon Ausman, a national committeeman from Florida.

The advisory says, “each challenger (including Ausman) will be entitled to present an Oral Argument before the RBC prior to Committee consideration for a period of 15 minutes each.”

“A representative from each state party and from each presidential campaign will also have an opportunity to address the committee regarding each of the challenges,” the notice explains.

The arguments will be in the morning and the Committee will deliberate after lunch. You can register on-line starting at 10 a.m. on Tuesday (May 27.) [More...]

Via Real Clear Politics:

• Hillary won Florida by 294,772 votes.
• Hillary won Michigan by 328,309 votes
• Hillary won 150,000 more votes than Obama last night in Kentucky and Oregon. She won Kentucky by 249,224 votes while Obama won Oregon by 102,144 votes.

Let's add it all up:

• Popular Vote Totals (w/FL & MI)Hillary leads by 174,047 votes (.48%.)
• Popular Vote Totals (w/FL & MI and Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA): Hillary leads by 63,825 votes (.18%)

Regardless of what the DNC does on May 31 with FL and MI delegates, the popular votes were certified by the states. Their numbers are real and they must be added to her popular vote total. Obama removed himself from the ballot by choice, not requirement. This is a consequence of that decision. He needs to accept it. [More...]

Today on MSNBC, Kevin Spacey, a star of HBO's film depiction of the 2000 Florida Presidential vote travesty, Recount, said about the current Florida Democratic delegate fiasco:

I do not see how you can pretend two million people did not vote.

Indeed. The Huffington Post has a headline that reads HBO's Recount Opens 2000 Wounds. I think it does more than that. It rubs salt in the current wound in the Democratic Party on the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations.

On May 31, the DNC better do the right thing. The DNC better do the smart thing. Seat the Florida and Michigan delegations.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed

Here is a lesson in reading an exit poll. Even in Oregon, Barack Obama lost working class voters to Hillary Clinton. You will read otherwise at Obama sites (Greg Sargent is a terrific and fair journalist, I was wrong to refer to him in that manner), but they will be disingenuous when they do so.

There are two basic characteristics that are used to define working class voters - income and education. In Oregon, a state as favorable as you can find for Obama on this score, Clinton won voters with a HS degree and no college 53-46. In Oregon, Clinton won voters earning less than $30,000 a year by 54-45.

If your intent is to bury your head in the sand, you will include the "some college" group (read COLLEGE STUDENTS) into the working class. Some Obama supporting observers will play that game. But that will not make the problem go away.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Comments closed.

As I have stated repeatedly for a month now, it is my view that Barack Obama will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee. And it is time Barack Obama starts acting like he believes that. That means doing things that will help him win in November. I have talked about his need to unify the Democratic Party, address his problems with working class voters of all stripes (except African Americans of course) and, the issue of the upcoming week - show respect to the voters of Florida and Michigan. Today, John Dickerson writes:

The math is relentless, yet Obama hasn't won yet, and Hillary Clinton shows no sign of stopping. She will travel to Florida on Wednesday to argue that he wants to win the nomination by disenfranchising the state's Democratic primary voters, a visit that can only damage him in a swing state crucial to Obama's chances in November.

(Emphasis supplied.) [More . . .]

The LA Times sent out a "breaking news" e-mail saying "Clinton money shocker! Posts at 6 A.M. Eastern 3 AM Pacific."

It published its scoop here. Then it sent out another e-mail saying:

Due to a mathematical error, Hillary Clinton's loans to herself were counted twice in this morning's item on her campaign debt, which is $20 million not $31 million. We will be publishing a corrected item asap, but wanted to alert you as quickly as possible.

Never mind....

Who won bigger in today's primaries? 100% of the vote is in from Kentucky, 66% is in from Oregon:

• Hillary won 51 delegates so far, Obama 35.
• Hillary earned 650,000 votes, Obama has gotten 475,000.

Hillary won a lot more votes and more delegates tonight.

She's tonight's winner.

Kentucky: 100% of vote:

• Hillary: 459,145 votes * 65% * 37 delegates
• Obama: 209,771 votes * 30% * 14 delegates
• Counties: Hillary wins all but 2

Oregon: 66% of votes in

• Obama: 272,000 votes * 58% * 21 delegates
• Hillary: 196,000 votes * 42% * 14 delegates
• Counties: Obama wins 16; Hillary wins 13 (1 tied, 4 still out)

More....

******

(Big Tent Demorat): My understanding is that the telephone polling in Oregon shows a double digit (56-43) Obama win. I personally am not going to stay up following it too closely.

For some reason I feel it is going to be closer than expected, say 9? But I have no basis for that.

In any event, CNN results board for your perusal. Here are the CNN Oregon Exit Polls. BTW, Obama STILL has a working class voter problem in Oregon, despite the claims of the Obama News Network (NBC), Clinton win voters earning 30k or less by 54-43. Clinton wins non-college voters by 54-44.

Again, talk about Oregon or anything you like. J. is out celebrating a real life triumph, the TL Kid became a full fledged lawyer today, taking to oath.

Night all. My usual post mortems in the morning.

By Big Tent Democrat

Update (TL): I'm back. A big thanks to BTD for keeping the threads going tonight. I'll be here for the duration.

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