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In Oregon, Obama Lost Working Class Voters

Here is a lesson in reading an exit poll. Even in Oregon, Barack Obama lost working class voters to Hillary Clinton. You will read otherwise at Obama sites (Greg Sargent is a terrific and fair journalist, I was wrong to refer to him in that manner), but they will be disingenuous when they do so.

There are two basic characteristics that are used to define working class voters - income and education. In Oregon, a state as favorable as you can find for Obama on this score, Clinton won voters with a HS degree and no college 53-46. In Oregon, Clinton won voters earning less than $30,000 a year by 54-45.

If your intent is to bury your head in the sand, you will include the "some college" group (read COLLEGE STUDENTS) into the working class. Some Obama supporting observers will play that game. But that will not make the problem go away.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Comments closed.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Kinda kills the "racist hillbilly" meme, (5.00 / 7) (#1)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:09:10 AM EST
    now doesn't it?

    My dad was actually arguing with me last night that racists only live in certain parts of the country. All the people who voted for Hillary in WV and KY did so out of racism. In Iowa and WI, there are no racists because there aren't as many AA's. That's why Obama won. Also, that's why Obama won Oregon.

    I couldn't believe these idiotic arguments were coming out of my own father's mouth. :-(

    Your dad is wrong (5.00 / 3) (#17)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:18:13 AM EST
    There are racists ALL OVER the country.

    I don't think that's why Obama is losing KY.  Also, in my experience, I have found that people who are likely to be racist are also likely to be sexist.  So I don't know how that translates into Hillary winning.

    On a more positive note, Obama doesn't seem to think most Americans will vote on race or Gender.

    Parent

    I know he's wrong, CST. (5.00 / 5) (#27)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:23:23 AM EST
    Sigh.

    It's amazing how these racist redneck hillbillies always somehow become enlightened when it comes to sexism. /snark

    Another big factor in the KY vote was the economy. 69% of the voters thought it was the most important issue. Obviously the economy is a very strong plus for Clinton.

    Personally, I think elitism is a large part of what is causing Obama's working-class problem. I don't believe that there are 17 million racists who have no problems with women in the Democratic Party.

    Call me crazy.


    Parent

    Hey Crazy....you're right. What Can We Do (5.00 / 3) (#71)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:37:45 AM EST
    with the likes of Dowd who continues to try to drag down Hillary in all her columns, not to mention the talking heads.  Too many ill-informed people just go along with whatever they say.  It is very evident on the blogs where many just parrot the talking points they have heard.

    Parent
    The long-term solution IMHO (5.00 / 9) (#76)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:41:18 AM EST
    is to break up the corporate stranglehold on the media by reinstituting the Sherman Anti-Trust Act and the Fairness Doctrine. I believe this type of legislation is already pending in the House somewhere. (More and Better Dems.) The corporate media has been trashing Dems for decades now and it's not going to end any time soon if we don't break up the news monopoly.

    The short-term solution? Set phasers on "ignore". Hillary's voters seem to be doing so quite nicely. ;-)

    Parent

    Seems solid to me....people laugh when one (5.00 / 1) (#161)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:36:38 PM EST
    talks about the "good old days", but those days were better, in many respects.

    Parent
    It is the "chattering class" (5.00 / 5) (#197)
    by 1040su on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:56:54 PM EST
    that is promoting this meme & otherwise intelligent people are falling for it hook, line and sinker.  I think KO has a lot to answer for on this front. Progessives were so happy that someone was finally telling their side of the story that they came to trust him implicitly and that has continued on into the primary season.  If he says the Clintons and their supporters are racists, well, they must be!  Then add to the mix Chris Matthews who has always hated the Clintons and a few others with axes to grind & VIOLA there you have it.  I couldn't believe my ears last night when CM actually pointed out that there were no black people in her crowd of supporters - that usually they sprinkle a few around for appearances.

    They are those that have correctly identified what makes these voters tick.  The Republicans have been very successful in painting the insulting caricature of Democrats as "Latte drinking, limp wristed liberals."  EJ Dionne wrote an op-ed recently that pointed out how both Gore & Kerry had "underperformed with these voters, particularly among men." EJ Dionne.  Last time I checked they were both very white.  Jim Webb has been talking about the Scots-Irish and their rugged individualism and how they admire toughness etc...  You see, the problem for these voters isn't that he is black, it's that he fits the sterotype they've come to believe about Democrats and Hillary doesn't.  But that line of reasoning will never be seriously broached by the new kewl kids at MSNBC.  As a side note, I saw an interview with Alec Baldwin the other night and they asked him about his political aspirations and why did he think the right hated him so much.  His best line of the night was "because they hate liberals who can throw a punch."

    Parent

    Racists of the World, Unite! (1.00 / 9) (#73)
    by Sawyer on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:39:24 AM EST
    There are racists all over our country and we are not going away.  We are a factor to be reckoned with and we will not be ignored!

    Parent
    madamab, you're crazy (none / 0) (#39)
    by BGP on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:26:48 AM EST
    like a fox

    Parent
    LOL! (none / 0) (#49)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:29:23 AM EST
    Thanks. :-)

    Parent
    Health care is a big issue (none / 0) (#213)
    by splashy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:09:30 PM EST
    I'm sure that is integrated with the economy. They knew that when they had "good jobs" health care was included. The bad jobs they get now do not.

    College students don't care about that. They have health care. Same with those with higher education.

    Parent

    LOLOL (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by blogtopus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:58:05 AM EST
    How can he believe that when AA's repeatedly vote for him in the upper 80's to low 90's percentages?

    He doesn't believe it; It's all smoke.

    Parent

    obama should get a pry bar and let somebody (none / 0) (#35)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:26:04 AM EST
    remove his head from his butt.  He knows better, I would hope; but it keeps him from not having to face the truth.  

    Parent
    I really don't think (5.00 / 1) (#210)
    by cal1942 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:08:17 PM EST
    Obama does know better.  For the gazillionth time just examine the Roberts confirmation story.

    Parent
    Huh? (none / 0) (#44)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:28:13 AM EST
    So you think most Americans WILL base their vote on race or gender????

    I have more faith in my country than that.

    Parent

    Me too. (5.00 / 2) (#65)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:34:50 AM EST
    I think racism and sexism are big problems in America, but I think that the Republican brand is so horribly damaged that people don't care. They were ready to vote for one of the two historic Dem candidates when this process narrowed down.

    Now I think HRC would kick McCain's butt, and Obama has a much smaller chance (he MIGHT be able to squeak out a win).

    I just want to nominate the butt-kicking candidate so I don't have to bite my nails like a lunatic till the Morning After in November.

    Parent

    Plus (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:45:45 AM EST
    I would be lying if I said I wasn't excited to vote for the first black or female president.  It's definitely in the plus column for me, and I imagine there are many others that share that sentiment.  So I kinda think it might help either one of them in that regard.

    I am hopeful that either can win, and I would be happy with either, although I clearly have my preference.  I used to think Obama more electable (not why I support him though), not so sure now, but I think he can pull it out.

    Parent

    Thanks for your politeness... (5.00 / 1) (#92)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:48:41 AM EST
    despite our different preferences for President, we can agree on a lot. :-)

    Parent
    Thanks! (none / 0) (#205)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:04:03 PM EST
    I enjoy the banter too :)

    Parent
    Well there's a whole lotta difference.... (5.00 / 3) (#201)
    by Maria Garcia on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:59:22 PM EST
    ...between the real reason people cast a vote and the motivations assigned to them by the media and creative class narrative. Well I've done my bit. My children are well educated and equipped to function in this brave new world. I thought the point of being a Democrat, though, was to care about other people's children too. And other people's problems. That's the elephant in the room for me with this new movement. Since so many people are being written off, just who exactly will benefit?

    Parent
    That's what I asked him. (5.00 / 3) (#30)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:23:59 AM EST
    He seems to think the Clintons have a magic racism eraser that they will apply to Obama's campaign.

    Sigh.

    Parent

    Yet he saw (5.00 / 3) (#115)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:01:58 PM EST
    nothing wrong with that argument. It's not Obama's fault he can't connect with working-class voters, it's just that they're all racists.

    Sigh.

    Parent

    You Have To Wonder How Long He Can Keep (5.00 / 6) (#171)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:42:50 PM EST
    losing these large blocs of voters before the sd's, the DNC and his followers notice he cannot win the GE.

    Parent
    My Guess Would Be (5.00 / 6) (#176)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:49:26 PM EST
    the day after the election. The DNC and party leadership wants his donor list and the money more than they want the WH.

    Parent
    Obama's #1 job was to STOP HILLARY (5.00 / 4) (#187)
    by Josey on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:54:20 PM EST
    that's all the DNC of Washington elites required of him. He didn't need to focus on issues and solutions - just "beat the B---h!"
    They backed and condoned a newbie senator repeatedly trashing the Clinton admin and praising the Reagan admin! Obama could even engage in mocking Hillary with sexist remarks - along with race-baiting and falsely accusing the Clintons of racism. Blacks would then vote along racial lines and the Kidz would be pushovers with their video game mentality targeting the "evil" Clintons.
    Whatever it took to prevent those Clinton hicks from the sticks returning to the White House again - without the blessing of the elite Establishment.
    And damn the loyal Democrats and Reagan Democrats returning to the party and voting for Hillary!
    The Elites are in charge now!

    Parent
    Josey (5.00 / 4) (#236)
    by cal1942 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:43:58 PM EST
    hits a bases loaded home run.  A perfect description of what this primary campaign is all about.

    And this part:
    the Kidz would be pushovers ..."

    Kids who aren't old enough to remember the Clinton Administration. So Obama trashes away to tar Hillary. Just sickening.

    Wish I could give you several dozen 5s.

    Parent

    No (5.00 / 5) (#32)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:24:38 AM EST
    It just means that Appalachia DID extend to the west coast! </snark!>

    Parent
    No racism in Iowa ... (5.00 / 5) (#34)
    by Inky on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:25:51 AM EST
    The Black Agenda Report has a good article on the pervasive institutional racism in the supposedly post-racist Iowa, pointing out the following salient fact:

    Blacks would seem to be under special surveillance in Iowa.  The state might have been the first in the nation to support Obama on the road to the White House but it is also first in the rate of racially disparate mass incarceration.  According to a recent Sentencing Project report, Iowa locks up African Americans at 13.6 times the frequency that it imprisons whites, the worst record in the nation.

    This is more than twice the terrible national black-white race disparity (5.6) in incarceration rates. Mississippi and Alabama both lock up blacks at 3.5 times the rate at which they imprison whites, making them look like bastions of progressivism compared  to relatively lily-white northern states like Iowa (13.6), Wisconsin (10.6), and South Dakota (10.0).

    Link

    Parent

    And note Wisconsin is second (5.00 / 5) (#99)
    by Cream City on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:53:04 AM EST
    in that.  I say again, as a lifelong resident of Wisconsin but a visitor to West Virginia with residents who are lifelong residents there, where I have met hundreds of people, that I have heard and seen far worse incidences -- though that word doesn't really capture the relentlessness nature of it -- of racism in Wisconsin.  

    And again, anyone who thinks that there is not racism in Wisconsin because of the primary results is not reading up on the reasons for it in the primary here, nor on the results of the vote only a few weeks on our first AA state supreme Court justice, etc., etc.

    Parent

    Oops! (none / 0) (#151)
    by Inky on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:30:47 PM EST
    I screwed up the link. Here it is (I hope).

    Link

    Parent

    It has been talked about (by (5.00 / 3) (#74)
    by zfran on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:40:23 AM EST
    Donna B. and the like)that the goal is to get Republican lites into the party, the party doesn't need those poor, white voters..I guess us older voters will die off soon and so they don't matter,women don't matter at all (except Michelle and his daughters) and what will be interesting is when people like D.B. and Dean, who aren't exactly youngsters, are pushed out by the newby members of the party.

    Parent
    I live in WI (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by kenoshaMarge on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:45:15 AM EST
    and our percentage of overt racism is disgusting in some areas. WI not racist? What a joke?

    Parent
    I know (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:48:12 AM EST
    I live in MA and there is DEFINITELY racism alive and well here, yet we have a black governer.  I think the way people treat people in everyday life is very different from how they look at politicians.

    Parent
    I think people look at politicians (5.00 / 0) (#105)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:56:18 AM EST
    and ask, "So, what are you going to do for me? Why should I let you run my city/state/country?"

    If they like a person's platform, they don't care if that person has extra melanin in their skin, or wears a pantsuit instead of pants.

    That's how I vote, anyway.

    Parent

    You are clearly MISSING (5.00 / 5) (#135)
    by dws3665 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:18:01 PM EST
    the entire point here.

    It goes something like this:

    If Obama wins a state, it is not racist.

    If Clinton wins a state, it is racist.

    This is very simple, yet I marvel at how many intelligent TL posters cannot follow the logic of the Big Boi Blogs.

    (/snark)

    Parent

    "then how is O planning . . (5.00 / 3) (#164)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:37:57 PM EST

    . . . to change their minds?"

    guilt and insults apparently.

    Parent

    This new definition of racism.... (5.00 / 3) (#184)
    by Maria Garcia on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:53:31 PM EST
    ...i.e, you are only a racist if you don't vote for Obama....is going to come back and bite people in the butt one day, that's all I going to say.

    Parent
    perhaps (5.00 / 1) (#214)
    by Josey on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:11:13 PM EST
    but it'll take much more money for Obama to win - and it's not a given that money will help.
    And he has to rely on white people he's dissed to clean up his racist mess.
    Even Jesse Jackson wasn't offended by Bill Clinton's remark.
    And it's doubtful historians were offended by Hillary's LBJ/MLK remark.

    Obama engaged in race-baiting and falsely accused the Clintons of racism, but sees no hypocrisy in attending a church for 20 years that espoused anti-white ideology.

    Parent

    I think (4.20 / 5) (#55)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:31:34 AM EST
    the theory is that the racists will go back to their true home and vote McCain while the good but erroneous Clintonistas will see the light and come home to Obama.  New registrations/increased turnout among the 'approved' voting groups will offset any losses.

    Parent
    This (none / 0) (#177)
    by Jane in CA on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:49:33 PM EST
    is the most offensive post I have ever read at Talkleft.  Why isn't this poster banned, and who th f*** is uprating her racist rants?

    Parent
    Huh? (5.00 / 0) (#182)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:52:34 PM EST
    Chrisvee is saying what he/she thinks Obama's campaign strategy is.

    It's not the poster's opinion.

    Parent

    I am so sorry! (5.00 / 0) (#194)
    by Jane in CA on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:56:31 PM EST
    Thank you, MadamB.

    My sincere apologies, ChrisVee.  My snark radar was off :( but that is no excuse for not checking it out more thoroughly.

    Parent

    Easy to do online, I think. :-) (none / 0) (#200)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:59:08 PM EST
    Oops, sorry (none / 0) (#195)
    by blogtopus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:56:41 PM EST
    Jane, calling someone racist isn't the same thing as proving it. You'll have to do better than that.

    Parent
    Mea Culpa, Madam (5.00 / 1) (#208)
    by Jane in CA on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:07:10 PM EST
    Yes, I should have recognized Chrisvee's posting name.  When I checked his/her past comments, I realized I've uprated most of his/her excellent posts myself. And, yes, I should have checked CV's past posts BEFORE I responded.

    Chris, please accept my apologies; if I could delete the post, I would do so immediately.

    Parent

    Thanks Madam and Blog (none / 0) (#217)
    by Jane in CA on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:14:43 PM EST
    for the kind words.  Not to beat a dead horse, but I really do feel awful about my comment.  Is there no way to delete comments on this board?  Can I ask Jeralyn or BTD to do so, or is that kind of a misuse of their (no snark!) valuable time and resources?

    Parent
    Ok it's all good (none / 0) (#202)
    by blogtopus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:00:37 PM EST
    Jane, I've done that too. My snark radar is horribly off sometimes, along with my gadar. I should check into it.

    Glad it was a misunderstanding. :-)

    Parent

    When I read (3.66 / 3) (#37)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:26:14 AM EST
    some of the blogs and listen to the MSM, apparently I'm supposed to believe that all of the non-racist whites lives in states with low AA populations.  Isn't it odd that a less diverse state would be more tolerant?

    Parent
    Perfectly put (5.00 / 1) (#104)
    by Cream City on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:56:03 AM EST
    and again, it reminds me of anywhere in Wisconsin but Milwaukee, where 98%-plus of all AAs in the state live.  Traveling around the state, as I often have done to give talks, I frequently have dealt with people who point to Milwaukee as having a problem with racism but pride themselves on their towns not being racist at all.

    Of course, some of those areas still have a high percentage of the first Wisconsin people, Native Americans, who face great discrimination there -- but the locals tell me that's not from racism.

    Right.

    Parent

    Actually, your dad might have a point. (2.00 / 0) (#244)
    by Newt on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:08:00 PM EST
    Oregon's blue-collar and white rural voters are very different from white blue collar folks in Appalachia.  Oregon has a strong libertarian streak and our rural voters are more likely to be Independent than Republican.  Our population is only about 2% black, and we don't have intergenerational ethnic conflict.  Racism really may be less of an issue here.   We don't have local school boards, so state-wide hate-free curriculum has been in place in the schools for years.  Tolerance and respect are core teachings in our schools.  Racism still exists, of course, it's just not as acceptable as in other places in the country.

    However, the Limbaugh effect is in full force in Oregon.  Thousands of Republicans switched parties to vote for Clinton, the candidate they most want to run against.  The talk show hosts are having a great time with encouraging their followers to undermine our Democratic primaries.  Without anti-Hillary motivation, they really can't inspire their side to vote, and we're on the fast track to fire our one and only Republican in the US Congress, Sen. Gordon Smith.  

    Parent

    is he an Obama supporter (none / 0) (#5)
    by TalkRight on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:11:59 AM EST
    then it is not his fault.. its Obama Kool-Aid.

    Parent
    Yes he is... (none / 0) (#7)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:14:26 AM EST
    and I think my stepmother has been slipping the Kool-Aid into his morning OJ. ;-)

    Parent
    It's obvious (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:10:12 AM EST
    that Obama's electoral problems are unsolvable.

    Maybe, maybe not (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:15:23 AM EST
    I think he can keep the Kerry states minus NH and win NM, CO, and IA. That gets us to an Electoral College tie. Dems are very likely to control most delegations in the 111th, and they'll make Obama President. Yes, I really think that's likely.

    Parent
    Do we (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:23:48 AM EST
    want to do that? It gives me a headache to think that the best Obama can do is 269 ev's. He will be seen as a completely illegitimate president if the house has to decide. And what of those districts that have dem representatives but voted for McCain? What are they to do? Should they vote the will of the people or the party line. A tie is horrible.

    I don't think he can win CO. Kerry was leading there in 2004 too.

    Parent

    Not only do I think it's possible (none / 0) (#41)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:27:43 AM EST
    I think it's probably his best shot. The alternative is winning Ohio, Florida, or Missouri, or even pulling out a win in New Hampshire. Those are all long shots for him.

    Parent
    Okay (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:29:41 AM EST
    I agree that it might be his best shot. However, if that's his best shot it's certainly not good a positive for his chances in Nov. Losing one small state would be the difference between a tie and a loss.

    Parent
    Agree, Missouri Is A Real Long Shot n/t (none / 0) (#145)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:23:36 PM EST
    For me, it is not about whether obama can get (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:29:14 AM EST
    voted into office.  It is about letting another inexperienced, inept, victim playing, lazy person in the WH.  obama continues to show his true colors and to my mind, it is about him, not about us.

    Parent
    Yes it is (none / 0) (#59)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:32 AM EST
    I agree with Hillary Clinton that the ultimate goal must be to get a Democrat into the White House next year. Full stop.

    Parent
    And, I hold my ground (5.00 / 2) (#206)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:06:45 PM EST
    that a bad democratic term will kick us back out of the WH in 4 years and it will take us 20 more to get back in.


    Parent
    Yes, 100% agreed. (none / 0) (#124)
    by kelsweet on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:09:51 PM EST
    He will not win all the Kerry (none / 0) (#58)
    by chancellor on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:25 AM EST
    states, IMO. He will lose PA. Therefore, he will lose the election.

    Parent
    I've changed my mind on PA (none / 0) (#62)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:33:27 AM EST
    I believe he's slightly favored there. At least, that's what the polls now say.

    but you're right that if he loses PA, he loses the election.

    Parent

    PA (none / 0) (#89)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:47:30 AM EST
    Two things strike me about PA.  First, we have the Rendell, Casey, and Clinton machines to drive up the vote in Erie, Pittsburgh, and Philly.  That will be critical as usual to offset other parts of the state.  Second, I don't think that PA Republicans are that thrilled with John McCain.  I don't think he's viewed as conservative enough for them.  My fanatical Republican friends didn't have much good to say about him during the primary.  And Catholics are not very happy with McCain's position on the war.  So will they all come out for McCain?

    Parent
    re: It's obvious (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Artoo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:18:11 AM EST
    Unsolvable? What makes you say that? He's only been on the national scene for a few years, and he's only been relevant for 6 months or so. There are still people who don't really know him or know who he is. He's still got potential as a candidate and he's still got plenty of time to connect with those voters against McCain.

    Parent
    Forget it. (5.00 / 4) (#21)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:20:54 AM EST
    Obama has had the press fawning over him for months and he still can't close the sale in a democratic primary. The fact of the matter is that Obama's problems are only going to get worse once the GOP starts with the 527's.

    Parent
    The sale! (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by contrarian1964 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:28:04 AM EST
    Hillary can't close the sale either.  That's been proven.  We need someone who can close the sale!  This is proven!

    We've got such a problem, two candidates who have competed and can't close the sale.  

    Nobody likes the other candidate, and everybody likes my candidate.  That is certain.

    (Note: this posting is satire.)

    Parent

    i respectfully disagree (none / 0) (#130)
    by kelsweet on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:16:13 PM EST
    I think that it is GLARINGLY obvious that the race took a turn after J.A.W. GD Americkkka etc etc. and no one is allowed to make this obvseration (i heard on the news)per BO. And this will block him in the GE, whether it is admitted or not, it is just fact. Plus the race card is OLD. I am sure there are some who weren't racist who will wind up being racist for being called racist for so long now. It is grating.
                                 I'm just saying

    Parent
    OOPS sorry i replied to (none / 0) (#133)
    by kelsweet on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:17:38 PM EST
    the wrong entry, but my opinion stands.

    Parent
    Is it? (4.00 / 4) (#40)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:27:07 AM EST
    I don't think so.  Many said that he didn't have a chance when he announced his bid for the nomination. Yet he is close to clinching it.  

    Obama was able to connect with a variety of voters during his time in Illinois politics. He may be able to do it again.

    Parent

    Obama (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:48 AM EST
    has two demographic groups
    Latte liberals and AA's.

    He has not shown an ability to connect with any group outside those two so far (outside WI). His race against Keyes was a joke. You can't glean any information from that.

    Parent

    Indiana is full of (none / 0) (#129)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:14:36 PM EST
    latte liberals and AAs?

    Parent
    No (5.00 / 1) (#143)
    by dws3665 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:22:35 PM EST
    But that is who voted for Obama in large numbers. You do recall that HRC won Indiana?

    Parent
    He has shown abilities to connect (none / 0) (#146)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:24:31 PM EST
    with other groups during his Illinois career including his time as state senator and his Dem primary win to be the Dem Senate nominee.  I can also glean info from him winning East Chicago Indiana - a town with a majority Latino population - almost 2 to 1.  

    Parent
    You're (5.00 / 1) (#188)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:55:35 PM EST
    kidding? Obama has shown no such ability. His district was mostly upper income whites and AA's. In the Dem primary his main competition disentegrated. He had no GOP opposition to speak of in the senate race.

    The only time he has had a tough race he lost.

    Parent

    He has had many tough races in this very (none / 0) (#234)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:41:51 PM EST
    primary.  He seems to have done ok, at least better than HRC.  

    Parent
    What "variety" of voters in Illinois? (5.00 / 1) (#179)
    by Cream City on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:49:56 PM EST
    Seriously, do you have a source that says so?  I've read so many stories in Illinois media and haven't seen good evidence of that.  From what I can see, his state senate district combined mostly AAs with some college-town-type liberals -- the same two groups we see with him now.  I didn't see that his district had, for example, white working-class.  Did you see something different?  I'd like to read it, if so, to be reassured that he can reach others.

    Parent
    If he was running for President of Illinois... (5.00 / 1) (#227)
    by ineedalife on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:24:13 PM EST
    I might be convinced. Except for the fact that he lost this demographic to Hillary in IL too. Oh, snap!

    Pennsylvania told the tale. He had six weeks of undivided attention, spent 30 million dollars, and did not make a dent. In many of these states he outspends Clinton 3 or 4 to 1, and has twice the field offices and twice the boots on the ground. And he still loses.

    After the convention he will be spread out nationally, have only about 12 weeks, will not be able to spend nearly as much per voter, and will have to deal with a critical media. I just don't see it happening for him.

    Parent

    The press (5.00 / 9) (#3)
    by Dave B on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:11:35 AM EST
    Actually tries to demean Clinton because she gets the working class uneducated vote.

    Who was it that Democrats were supposed to have a history of standing up for again?

    Seems like we are moving toward two parties for the rich...

    Yes (5.00 / 8) (#25)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:22:08 AM EST
    Suddenly we're now supposed to be ashamed of getting votes from people without college educations and who make less than $50,000/yr.

    Parent
    Obama won those making 50,000 a year in OR (2.00 / 0) (#54)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:31:15 AM EST
    He lost those making less than 30,000.

    Parent
    My remark (none / 0) (#69)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:36:26 AM EST
    is not specific to OR. Isn't the definition of working class usually set at under $50,000?

    Parent
    Seems like we have two parties for the rich (5.00 / 2) (#110)
    by abfabdem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:59:20 AM EST
    Spot on comment, sadly! As I did think the Democrats used to stand for the working person.  That is so discouraging.

    Parent
    Exactly (5.00 / 1) (#215)
    by ruffian on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:11:15 PM EST
    That is certainly the way it was portrayed last night.  John King caught himself doing it and made a half apology for insulting anyone.

    So what is Obama's argument to working class Americans (since they are not as conveniently confined to Appalachia as he wants to pretend)?  Trust me, even though I have written you off at best and insulted you at worst? I have your best interests at heart, even though the vast majority of my donors and supporters are upper class elites and their college student offspring. Sorry you still won't get health care.

    Parent

    Obama's coalition continues (5.00 / 5) (#4)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:11:51 AM EST
    Plus, Oregon isn't the problem; no one ever said that Obama couldn't win oregon.

    The problem is with working class whites in the northeast, and you can't win a Presidential election if they really don't like you.

    The Wright factor (4.66 / 3) (#15)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:17:42 AM EST
    was huge in KY, IMHO.

    78% of the KY voters thought Obama shared Wright's values in some way.

    The 22% who said he didn't share Wright's values at all voted overwhelmingly for Obama.

    Parent

    Well, it's hard to say (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:19:47 AM EST
    whether thats a cause or a symptom.

    Parent
    The Wright Factor Extends Beyond KY (5.00 / 4) (#169)
    by BDB on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:42:15 PM EST
    For an issue that he's supposedly put behind him, it's hurting him everywhere, even Oregon.

    Here's my summary of exit polls from IN, NC, WVA, KY and OR on the issue.  I think it didn't register as much in Oregon because it's not a particularly religious state.  Similarly, it was somewhat under the radar in NC because of the number of AA voters.  But if you want to know why Hillary is running there more strongly than Obama is against McCain, it's because the non-Dem voters are going to look and be a lot more like her primary voters in NC and other states than Obama's.  He's pretty much maxed out urban liberals and AAs.

    Parent

    I wonder what % thought he was muslim? (none / 0) (#52)
    by jimotto on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:30:07 AM EST
    Well, I think that pollsters may muddle (5.00 / 1) (#112)
    by Cream City on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:59:56 AM EST
    that question a bit in people's minds as to whether that means religion or origing (just as Jewish can mean one, another, or both in people's minds).

    Obama is of Arab origin, not African, after all -- as his name indicates.  (Kenyans of African origin tend to have Christian names.)  It's the result of ignorance about Arabs, Muslims, etc., in this country.  And I've been polled several times (in a swing state), and questions relating to this are really poorly worded.

    Parent

    He could have come here (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by BGP on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:05:59 PM EST
    and tried to persuade them otherwise.

    Parent
    Is $30,000 the standard for determining (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:15:16 AM EST
    "working class?" Aren't those making $50,000 traditionally defined as working class also?  What were the stats for that group?

    This is not to argue with the obvious fact that he hasn't connected with a segment of voters.  

    You can make that argument (5.00 / 0) (#50)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:29:40 AM EST
    but even if you do, what of the education issue?

    Parent
    education and Clinton voters (5.00 / 2) (#175)
    by noholib on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:48:18 PM EST
    Yes people without higher education have been voting for Senator Clinton rather than Senator Obama.  However, I can assure you that are many highly educated people who support Senator Clinton enthusiastically. Yes, dear Obama-supporters, there are even professors with PhDs who find Senator Clinton more true to their liberal Democratic values.  Imagine that!

    Parent
    A male die-hard Democrat (5.00 / 0) (#190)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:55:49 PM EST
    who is one of my best friends, supports Hillary.

    Did I mention he has two Masters' Degrees and a Ph.D?

    Oh, and did I mention I've got a Masters' Degree too?

    The stereotyping, it burnnnnnssssss!

    Parent

    Yes, my (5.00 / 2) (#196)
    by mikeyleigh on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:56:47 PM EST
    wife for one, a Medievalist at an eastern PA. university.  And I have advanced degrees in history as well.  And, come to think of it, neither of us is a racist.  Imahine that!

    Parent
    That's what I hate about generalizing (none / 0) (#204)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:03:09 PM EST
    We make assumptions about people based on polls, whatever, that say 5x% of people w/ degrees voted for so-and-so.  Well, that also tells me that 4x% of those people voted for the other person.  So obviously there is gonna be some people who "defy demographics".  And 4x% is not that small of a number.  (btw, I am using x cuz i don't know the percentages, and frankly don't care enough to find out).

    Parent
    It is a problem for him. (none / 0) (#102)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:55:36 AM EST
    How much of one we won't really know until the GE campaign really begins.

    Parent
    so... (5.00 / 1) (#157)
    by dws3665 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:33:26 PM EST
    would we be better off nominating someone who does not have this potential problem, rather than wait till it is too late?

    Parent
    She has her own problems (none / 0) (#180)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:50:32 PM EST
    as does every candidate who wins a primary with less than 100 % of the votes.  That's what the GE campaign is for.

    Parent
    Not a secret, and overstated (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by contrarian1964 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:15:32 AM EST
    Large numbers of these "problem" voters will move to Obama as it becomes clear the nomination race is over.  Then "the problem" will be smaller.

    And "the problem" will not be cured this week, or,
    certainly, anywhere near soon enough to satisfy those who really are looking for a club with which to hit Obama.  They won't be appeased.  BTD, not sure whether you're in this club or not.  Can't read anyone's mind.

    I think it's safe to say that Obama and his team, who have been successful so far, know these little political campaign 101 tidbits about subgroups that the "experts" here keep hammering on.  

    The finger wagging is ceaseless.  

    Sorry (5.00 / 2) (#42)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:27:54 AM EST
    but Obama has had numerous chances to try to reach these voters. He has punted. His campaign has even said they don't want them. Many of these voters have a problem with Obama-his elitism, inexperience etc. They are things that Obama can not over come. Thinking that people who have been insulted and called names are going to automatically come back is delusional.

    Parent
    Nope (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by contrarian1964 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:03 AM EST
    You have cited campaign rhetoric and hearsay as "proof".  Many voters have "problems" with HRC.

    I could make similar citations about HRC's "problems."  And we could go back and forth all day.

    I could have said in 2000 that Bush would never overcome his perceived lack of experience.  But tactically his team figured that out.  It can be done.  This is campaigns 101.

    Nobody ever gets a perfect candidate.  But the nominee almost always runs a better campaign and makes fewer crucial mistakes than the runner up.


    Parent

    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:36:17 AM EST
    I could have said in 2000 that Bush would never overcome his perceived lack of experience.  But tactically his team figured that out.  It can be done.  This is campaigns 101.

    It's called "Stealing an election" without counting all the votes.

    Wait, I guess the comparison to Obama IS valid....

    Parent

    In a time (none / 0) (#77)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:41:52 AM EST
    of peace and prosperity it didn't matter so much. With two wars going on being unqualified matters. And I think that the voters realize that qualifications DO matter after having almost 8 years of Bush.

    Parent
    Thank you (none / 0) (#111)
    by BethanyAnne on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:59:44 AM EST
    for posting this.  The death knell for Obama's campaign keeps ringing loud and long here.  Shame he refuses to stop, no?

    Parent
    The Death Knell? (5.00 / 1) (#136)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:18:24 PM EST
    How about we try and FIX the problems before we cry defeat.

    You want to pretend all is perfect in our Dem political  world. I NEVER have done that. EVER.

    Parent

    Obama? Fix? (5.00 / 0) (#219)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:15:05 PM EST
    Sorry BTD but even you see what we CLEARLY see, and you are a supporter.  Obama refuses to go to WV and KY, rather, campaign whole-heartedly.  Actions speak louder than words.  Obama's his own problem, and he needs to address that. Now.

    The death-knell is there.  His less than enthused approach to states like KY and WV are going to damage the party two-fold:  lose them in the GE and lose them later, because of the picture the GOP will paint of the Democrats:  "See, their nominee didn't even come to your state to campaign for your votes in earnest."  "The dems are elitists."

    Parent

    Agreed, but how much overstated? (none / 0) (#118)
    by Cream City on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:03:22 PM EST
    That's the question.  Of course, some Clinton voters  -- including many here, who have said so -- will switch to Obama.  But enough of them?  

    That's the question, and that's the problem he faces if this is, again, a close election.  And as he has swung into general-election mode in his campaign, I for one have not seen reassuring signs that he and his campaign realize what they have to do.  I think they can do it, but I wonder, then, why not yet?

    Parent

    Then the question becomes why (5.00 / 2) (#183)
    by zfran on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:52:42 PM EST
    should we believe him, that he means it this time, if he ever changes his tactics.Like with Rev. Wright, he doesn't do anything unless it's to take desperate measures to save only him. No exactly a grownup response. As for the Dems and how to fix it, when everyone wakes up and stops thinking it all belongs to them...one vote per person, counted honestly. Simple!

    Parent
    I just realised (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Edgar08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:17:20 AM EST
    They're workists, people who judge others solely by the quality of their work or lack thereof.

    How about blogists? (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by contrarian1964 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:23:11 AM EST
    Blogists are people who judge the character of candidates and the minds of their supporters, and generalize from these judgments, even though they have no personal relationships whatsoever with either.  

    Blogists also take campaign rhetoric literally, and believe that once a trend is visible in a campaign, it continues forever....and therefore judgments made early in a campaign are as good as final.

    Blogism is a big problem on blog comment threads.

    Parent

    I love it (none / 0) (#93)
    by thentro on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:49:14 AM EST
    comment culture can be a beast.

    Parent
    So I take it (none / 0) (#223)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:22:20 PM EST
    that you see yourself as part of the problem?

    Parent
    I read (5.00 / 4) (#75)
    by chrisvee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:40:58 AM EST
    a comment last night at the Orange Place That Shall Not Be Named that blamed people for being poor.

    I'm thinking FDR is turning over in his grave but maybe that's just me.

    Parent

    Their Libertarian, (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:45:50 AM EST
    Social Darwinist roots are showing.

    Nothing annoys me more than that type of idiocy coming from supposed Democrats.

    Yes, 47 million in poverty and there's nothing we can or should do to help them.

    [gritting teeth]

    Parent

    Didn't Obama promise, immed. after the (none / 0) (#100)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:53:48 AM EST
    Edwards endors., to solve poverty w/i a given no. of years?

    Parent
    I guess the Obamans (none / 0) (#107)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:57:31 AM EST
    at the Daily Kos didn't get that memo...

    Parent
    10years? i'm pretty sure (none / 0) (#165)
    by kelsweet on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:38:05 PM EST
    Remember when (5.00 / 2) (#94)
    by kenoshaMarge on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:49:32 AM EST
    the left was appalled at those kinds of remarks coming from the likes of Glenn Beck? Now the elite Fauxgressives demean working men and women just like the repulsive Beck. Who ever would have thunk it?

    Parent
    That is a (none / 0) (#155)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:33:13 PM EST
    crass right wing talking point if I ever saw one.

    And they expect my vote?  LOL!

    Parent

    Those creative class kids (none / 0) (#222)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:17:35 PM EST
    anyone who doesn't understand ISP or DSL are totally beneathe them.

    IMO they're so smart, they're stupid.

    Parent

    I looked at the map and Hillary won (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by stefystef on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:19:07 AM EST
    most of the counties, but Obama won the counties that had the big cities and colleges.

    http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/demmap/

    It is interesting that the media doesn't talk about how much Hillary win, just what Obama is able to achieve.  Truth be told, Obama has not been able to break through his initial "coalition" of blacks and college educated voters.  There has been on real cross over and there is nothing right now that would indicated that Obama would get the core Democratic voter and the Independent voter.

    Yes, this will be a problem for Obama.  I think the luster on him is starting to dull.

    Yes, some commenter here put if perfectly (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by Cream City on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:08:17 PM EST
    as Obama running a 50-city campaign.  It would be interesting to see if those are the big college cities and towns.  That was so of his campaign in my state, where he basically just hit the two largest cities.  And they are the Dem strongholds in a state where most of the rest is Republican, and they do together comprise more than a third of the population.

    But about the other two-thirds, I'm not optimistic for the general election, unless he figures out how to reach out to the rest -- to the small towns (and ruralites, but they'll come into the small towns).

    Parent

    He's targeting HS and Colleges (none / 0) (#224)
    by waldenpond on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:22:37 PM EST
    in FL, and churches.  Oh yes, let's not forget the IPOD strategy.....

    [To broaden his base in such states, Obama strategists are scouring consumer marketing data for young people, women, African Americans and other liberal-leaning potential supporters who can be added to the voter rolls.]


    Parent

    Obama's Electibility (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Mlb1 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:20:26 AM EST
    I think its important for people to realize that Obama only won 37% in Iowa, it was only fitting for him to declare victory there.  Here is an outstanding article that needs be passed on concerning Clinton's case for the nomination.
    Clinton Picks Up More Than 100K Votes & Maintains Congressional District Lead

    http://politicallydrunk.blogspot.com/2008/05/clinton-picks-up-100k-votes-maintains.html

    Very good article (none / 0) (#192)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:55:59 PM EST
    Thanks.

    The election of the president of the United States has become a game. Pure and simple. The rules are constantly put ahead of the goal, and the side who bends those rules to the point just before they snap has gotten away with accusing their opponent of their own sin. As in any game, the rules are intended to create fair play, but the DNC is lead by that frustrating player who has discovered a way to cheat by using (not following) the rules.

    It reminds me of the deck of cards GWB handed out to the military at the start of the war. How much do you suppose the Pentagon spent on those cards? Clearly, that too, started out as a game.

    Parent

    Maybe the hard working, blue collar .... (5.00 / 2) (#45)
    by coolit on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:28:17 AM EST
    voters have a different threshold for what they see as unfair.  The media has clearly decided that fair is fair (when they say it is).  Maybe the Oregon working class said, "NO.  This is not fair."

    The Democratic party has a decision in front of it. Move towards a smart, strong future or support the MSNBC candidate and lose the election for democrats across the country, again.

    The media is trying to railroad Clinton out.  The voters, however, are not listening to what Chris Matthews and Nora O'donnell tell them.  In fact, the voters seem to be revolting against this tactic that they see is UNFAIR.

    This is the climate as I see it:

    If you blame the voters of a state for it's politicians' choices (FLA and MI) then you will lose those voters in the GE.  You will probably also lose the voters in similar states (OH and the Appalachian states).  

    This is the solution as I see it:

    Seat all the delegates and win back those voters to your party for the long term.  Be confident and not afraid.  It will benefit the party in the long term and win over voters nationwide.

    If the democratic party screws this up again, I might just leave it.  Supporting such a loser of a party is getting to be a little too frustrating for me to take.  The leadership is screwing it up, not the voters.  This is pushing me out of politics and I'm sure a lot of other people too.

    I agree (none / 0) (#116)
    by blogtopus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:02:25 PM EST
    but it has long been established that the Obama Campaign is not for the country, is not for the dem party, but for him and him alone. He couldn't lower himself to apologizing unless it is standing directly in the way of the Presidency, and even then it's a tossup.

    Parent
    Part of the problem (5.00 / 2) (#63)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:34:07 AM EST
    may be how people define themselves.  I'm an attorney - I do document review work.  Not exactly stimulating work, but it's getting me through for now.  I come from a middle class background in the Midwest.  I don't make $100K.  I consider myself "working class" (I WORK for a living and have bills to pay).

    So, all this media narrative that Obama doesn't connect with the "working class" just might be compounded by folks who consider themselves "working class", and don't like his elitist attitude. He certainly doesn't seem to speak for me.

    Document review (none / 0) (#132)
    by eric on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:17:24 PM EST
    Did that for a while myself.  The one good thing about it was the lack of stress.  You don't need to bring that job home with you, unlike my practice now.

    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#178)
    by Steve M on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:49:40 PM EST
    I used to knock document review.  Then I got a month in Alaska, all expenses paid, to review documents.  Best assignment ever!

    Parent
    It's not bad (5.00 / 1) (#203)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:01:12 PM EST
    But I'm sitting in the basement level...oh, excuse me - the concourse level of a law firm on Pennsylvania Avenue.  Can't tell whether it's sunny or rainy or dark or light out.

    But maybe I'll decide to run for President some day - I have as good a resume with this and other things as some people who decide to run.

    /snark

    Parent

    Attempting to break it down for OFB (5.00 / 4) (#64)
    by cawaltz on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:34:08 AM EST
    It isn't the racism and no matter how many times you repeat that stupidity it isn't going to make it so.

    It's about economic poliy. When you only have $30,000 you want to stretch those dollars as much as you can. Hillary appeals more because she emphasizes the parts of her policy that will benefit these folks. It's really that simple.

    It isn't helpful to call the people you sway a bunch of names and project emotions on them they may not be guilty of. Kos and DHinMi's attitude is going to lead you right over a cliff and propel McCain to victory.

    Let's Break It Down Even Further (5.00 / 2) (#128)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:14:23 PM EST
    The more the OFB label voters racists and uneducated the more voters are lost. The OFB might want to chose between the enjoyment of beating their chests and congratulating themselves on how marvelously superior they are or winning the GE.

    Parent
    Support (5.00 / 2) (#79)
    by thentro on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:42:58 AM EST
    I don't see anything odd about low-income people with out college degrees to be supporting Clinton. The Clintons in the 90s did something to help them, talked about them, and listened to them. Of course they would repay the Clintons by voting for Hillary!  But I also don't see anything odd about college graduates voting for Obama. They are more willing to take risks for greater reward and Obama offers that. I don't see anything wrong with boomer women voting for Hillary because she reflects a triumph for women - especially of the generation who knew the harshest form of sexism. Same for black people voting for Obama. Or young people voting for Obama. Or elderly people voting for Hillary. Everyone has their reasons and people should stop acting so surprised when people vote like they do. And everyone should really stop acting so offended when people vote like they do!

    uhhhh college grads (5.00 / 1) (#238)
    by kelsweet on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:47:12 PM EST
    willing to take risks? you bet,OB is a risk to say the least HOPING for greater reward. What reward does he offer for the risk? The fact that you say they are willing to take a risk by voting for him makes me wonder what they learned in college? BTW... Being college educated does not make one smarter. People seem to overlook this fact. When I, at the age of 32, tested for my GED (to see what i needed to brush up on) the results showed that I was on the 2 yr college level, and I hadn't graduated high school. It seems to me that when they refer to uneducated voters they make the assumption that they are not as smart as college educated folks. I beg to differ.
               Sign me an informed but not college educated voter, for Hillary. We make around 80,000 a year btw. so you can decide for yourself if you think i vote Hillary because of my lack of education, my skin color (white) or whatever. I will not vote Obama because he is shady (did my research) and he is green.

    Parent
    Then tell Donna Brazile (none / 0) (#233)
    by abfabdem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:40:01 PM EST
    who said she didn't want (or need) my vote.  And that I'm voting against Obama because I am racist, not possibly because I am for Clinton.

    Parent
    Obviously wrong (none / 0) (#242)
    by thentro on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:52:20 PM EST
    and I hope she sees the error and damage of her statements. But there has been plenty of dismissal of both Clinton and Obama voters that has been in error and has caused damage.

    1 Latte-sipping young-male college grad vote = 1 hillbilly grandma working class vote!  ;-)

    Parent

    Why is the Working Class definition changing? (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by ibextati on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:46:49 AM EST
    In OH, PA, IN, NC when defining working class voters, the media used people with income of less 50k. Now in Oregon and Ky, the working class threshold is 30K.

    The problem is in percentages (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by Florida Resident on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:50:20 AM EST
    I keep hearing about the Black vote, one that has traditionally voted Democrat.  Democrats must and have always courted that vote, you do not see Hillary or anyone in her campaign saying that that demographic is not wanted or needed.  The problem lies IMO that the Republicans have always lost the Black vote and still won elections, so the deciding demographic lies not there or in the Latino vote another one which has always favored the Democrats.  Percentage, both parties are basically fighting for the larger demographics, white males and females and whatever subdivisions you want to break those into.  At this point McBush is attractive not only to the Republican base but also to a large portion if not the majority of independents.  Does the Democratic party need to continue to alienate such a large portion of their constituency?  Can they run the risk at this time of voters abstaining or switching.

    I do not think so.  I think that they should do everything possible to fix all outstanding issues before the convention and stop all calls for any candidate to drop out.  The last thing they need is that one of it's largest demographics feel that they forced their candidate out.

    Black vote vs. White working class vote (none / 0) (#127)
    by ibextati on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:12:52 PM EST
    Black vote is very crucial for any democrate to win states like, MI, OH, PA, WI, NJ, MD, and Fl.
    Let's assume Hillary wins the nomination, if she wants to win the presidency she has to reach out to the African American votes. She's going to do that by talking issues important to African American, like affirmative action. In doing so she's going to alienate the white working class vote who are resentful about the special treatments for minorities.  That explains why democrates have lost the white working class vote since 1960. Basically, reaching out to the black vote comes at the expense of white working class vote.

    Parent
    Then explain how Bill Clinton did it? (5.00 / 1) (#199)
    by Florida Resident on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:58:01 PM EST
    Wow, I never thought of that (none / 0) (#230)
    by txpolitico67 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:35:35 PM EST
    Republicans DO win without the black vote.  Not being snarky, but MAN what a cold splash of water on my face.

    That gun boat diplomacy that the Dems use on us Latinos and rural white voters that "WE MUST HAVE THE AA VOTE!"

    I know that the AA community is a stalwart bloc of the Democratic party and no one should discount their political strength.  But if the DNC hinges the nomination on the AA & creative class vote to win, their initials would come to mean:

    Doomed National Candidacies

    Parent

    Heh (5.00 / 5) (#101)
    by Steve M on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:55:33 AM EST
    Gigantic TPM headline proclaims "Obama Handily Won Oregon's Working Class Whites," suggesting that this may be further evidence of an "Appalachia problem."

    As I posted above, Obama has won whites without a college education in one state, Wisconsin.  It doesn't appear that he won this demographic in Oregon, either, but even if he did that would make a total of two.

    There is zero intellectual rigor in the liberal blogosphere any more, just one apologia after another.  Maybe we should change our symbol from a donkey to an ostrich.

    Intellectual honesty (5.00 / 1) (#134)
    by TomP on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:17:54 PM EST
    has often been left behind by a few partisans of either candidate on blogs.  

    BTDs point here is good.  It appears the new demon is Appalachia.  But I suspect the Obama campaign looks at the issue realistically.  The spin is just for those who want to believe.

    If Obama is nominated, I still think he can obtain white working class voters.  But he will have to work at it and present a message different from (or in addition to) the message that resonates with yuppies and yuppies in waiting.

    Economic populism is the message.  Clinton discovered it this year finally.  She began to sound more like John Edwards as the campaign went on.

    Obama needs to convince working people he will fight for them against big corporations and other forces attacking working people.

    The Obama supporters who fail to see that are not imporant.  Obama knows that 47% or so of the people voted for Clinton.  He needs those voters and I am sure he will work for them.

    That's not to say Clinton has lost, but she understands it's a long shot now.

    Hillary Clinton last night:

    "No matter what happens, I will work as hard as I can to elect a Democratic president this fall," she said. "We will come together as a party, united by common values and common cause. And when we do, there will be no stopping us. We won't just unite our party, we will unite our country."

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10509.html

    Hillary Clinton has fought all her life for Democratic Party core values, starting with working for George McGovern in 1972. No matter what happens, she will continue fighting for them.

    Parent

    The problem is (5.00 / 2) (#181)
    by Steve M on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:52:00 PM EST
    it's been a long primary and there's still no sign of Obama improving his ability to connect with these voters.

    I don't want to bet the GE on his ability to finally solve a problem that has resulted in losses for so many Democratic candidates before him.

    I'm a pragmatic sort myself.  Hope is a town in Arkansas.

    Parent

    highly educated (5.00 / 3) (#121)
    by Robert Oak on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:06:42 PM EST
    I find that all particularly odious for I am actually very highly educated and I am also convinced most Obama voters have not read real positions or have done much research into the legislative backgrounds of the two frankly.  It's like a cultural thing.  When I mention specifics on policy differences and votes they raise eyebrows.

    That is one major issue in the press that really bothers me, these two are not the same and Hillary in essence, through policy positions (and I checked votes too) has been morphing into a fire breathing populist.  I am certain this is what is winning the Midwest, working people, especially those looking for manufacturing jobs.  People are responding to that and frankly those are the right positions to turn the US around.  Anything which pushes a candidate into positions that will save US manufacturing, US jobs, revamp trade and so on, well, those are the ones most US voters want and it's not because they are uneducated, it's because they are educated on what needs to happen to improve the US economically!

    So, this little public relations mantra trying to imply Clinton voters are somehow uneducated just drives me nuts.

    The whole thing also makes me question the quality of higher education in the US because when I talk about the real policy positions, my fellows of the creative class do not seem to know them!  (disclaimer, I am a latte drinking liberal but with a 4x4 beater truck).

    Senator Clinton is winning working class voters (5.00 / 1) (#138)
    by ricky on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:18:56 PM EST
    because they trust her, for any one of a variety of reasons. I don't think that means they definitely wouldn't vote for him, but it would be an uphill battle.

    Head in the Sand (5.00 / 0) (#174)
    by blogtopus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:45:15 PM EST
    I think it's time DailyKos changed their logo again.

    It's not just Kos, either. I really can't see how the Super D's are going for Obama in droves unless he's paying them off (which he is, handily more than Clinton), threatening them (which is perfectly in tune with his more rabid caucus supporters), or promising them high positions in his administration.

    I wonder, for instance, how many Super D's he's promised to make his Secretary of State? Won't THEY be in for a shock.

    News flash for you (none / 0) (#186)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:54:13 PM EST
    Some Dems have come to a different conclusion than you.  They like Obama.  They think he will be better as the nominee; better as the President.  

    Parent
    It's not a news flash (none / 0) (#211)
    by blogtopus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:09:00 PM EST
    but the job of the Super D's is to make sure that the Dem party doesn't shoot itself in the foot by nominating the candidate least likely to win. In close contests, they look at all the factors, including GE prospects, swing states, and momentum. They aren't supposed to be swayed by great speeches, support from unwinnable red states, and their children.

    Look up McGovern, George.

    The Super D's are relinquishing their roles in favor of fawning over the Chosen One. THAT's the news flash, and one that many pundits and supporters are ignoring.

    Parent

    Florida Base (5.00 / 1) (#209)
    by americanincanada on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:07:45 PM EST
    Hillary is brilliantly playing to her base today. She is speaking now at Century Village in Boca Raton, Florida.

    And she is nailing it talking about all the generations present and how they have seen change and know what it is and isn't.

    This is where she is speaking.

    Where she is speaking

    LIVE video stream

    Lies My Teacher Told Me: (5.00 / 2) (#229)
    by urduja on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:31:48 PM EST
    Everything Your American History Textbook Got Wrong

    It's been years since I've read the book but I remember the author making a point that it's the working class/HS educated that can usually see through political gloss and they've proven time and time again that their votes are grounded and pragmatic. Wish I had the book at hand so I could reread the section.

    That said, I myself am overeducated but I'm also an immigrant and my family was poor so I can definitely relate to the issues of the working class. And actually on economic terms, I'm still poor! The difference is, by virtue of many, many years of education, I have choices and opportunities.

    Reaching a bit. (5.00 / 0) (#232)
    by Faust on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:39:27 PM EST
    I don't know that I would even bother to try and connect Obama's "problem with working class voters" with the results in Oregon. Yes he lost them, but by a pretty small margin relative. If Obama had lost working class whites in the east the way he lost working class whites in Oregon this nomination would be over and done.

    More interesting to me is that in Kentucky Obama lost not only working class whites but also whites making over 100,000 a year and those with all levels of education. He lost whites with post graduate work by 16 points in Kentucky.

    So yes he lost people making less than 30,000 a year (though he won people making 30-50k by a very healthy margin), but by a margin that would have served him very well had he been able to duplicate it in the east.

    Obama's supposed strong support among the educated and weathy did NOTHING for him in Kentucky. He lost whites in virtually every category. In Oregon his supposed weakest groups didn't hurt him very much and he won most categories handily.

    There is a genuine cultural divide here. I have no idea what it means, but I find it more interesting than simply reducing it to Obama's problem with working class whites. In Kentucky he has a problem with virtually every group. In Oregon only a small problem with his "problem group."

    Media falsely represent KY (5.00 / 1) (#241)
    by adcatlett on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:50:49 PM EST
    I'm hoping this isn't closed yet.  I live in Ky and while racism does exist in our whole country, it's not just white racism or black racism. I lived in Fl and had seen PR hating on Mexicans, Mexicans and PR hating blacks.  It's never ending.  When I'd seen the percentage of 22 that race was an issue in voting for a candidate, I'd decided to do some research. I've been calling, emailing everyone I know in the 3 most populated areas in my state.  Louisville has the most registered democrats and 33% of those are black.  So, I've been requesting to find where the exit polls were conducted at in KY and guess what.  Jefferson county (Louisville) was the only county that exit polls were conducted.  A couple of friends of mind stated the 22% puplicized was not coming from white voters but from black voters, especially men.  So, black men stated race was the issue in this election because while they like Clinton, they want a black man in office. I don't blame them but pundits are making this look like whites are the ones.  The media definitely put a spin on this as they have with our whole party.

    Obama Also Lost The Seniors (4.83 / 6) (#10)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:15:22 AM EST
    Obama lost the 65 and older demographic 54% to 45%.

    I know we old folks should just get out of the way, but the funny thing is we have a tendency to vote in large numbers.

    Not to mention (5.00 / 2) (#141)
    by standingup on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:21:04 PM EST
    the older demographic reliably shows up at the polls on election day, year after year.

    Parent
    If the metric is education (4.83 / 6) (#36)
    by Steve M on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:26:06 AM EST
    which I think is most commonly used, Obama has won white voters without a college education in ONE STATE - Wisconsin.  He even lost them in his home state of Illinois.

    Many liberals enjoy looking down on these voters and dismissing their electoral preferences as the product of stupidity or "low information."  It never occurs to them that maybe, just maybe, these voters are simply looking for something different than highly-educated, better-off voters are.

    And when you lose them repeatedly (5.00 / 4) (#47)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:29:09 AM EST
    do not publicly compare your loss to greek mythology. That will not make them love you.

    Parent
    High school education (5.00 / 1) (#106)
    by BGP on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:57:13 AM EST
    My brother, who has only a high school education, is a millionaire.

    Granted he's older.

    I have a graduate degree and just barely manage to pay my bills.

    Just sayin'

    Parent

    What are they looking for then? (none / 0) (#119)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:03:49 PM EST
    Don't they want a better life for their children? Don't they want to be able to afford their medicine?  Don't they want to have money left over after they pay bills?  

    Parent
    Yes they do, (5.00 / 3) (#140)
    by eleanora on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:21:01 PM EST
    and they're betting that Senator Clinton can and will help them fight for those things.

    Parent
    They do (5.00 / 3) (#142)
    by samanthasmom on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:22:17 PM EST
    and that's why they vote for Hillary.

    Parent
    wow (5.00 / 3) (#147)
    by dws3665 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:28:00 PM EST
    Is this comment serious? I am just dumbfounded.

    Parent
    Of course (5.00 / 1) (#212)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:09:22 PM EST
    they do but that's not what Obama is selling. He's selling hope and change. They don't buy it.

    Parent
    Perhaps because he has never spelled out (none / 0) (#235)
    by abfabdem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:43:45 PM EST
    exactly how things will change.  We are just to hope that they will.

    Parent
    protest vote (1.00 / 1) (#81)
    by diogenes on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:44:24 AM EST
    When the race is already decided, people make protest votes.  They wouldn't vote for Hillary if they thought she could win.
    Who do you think gave Hillary her 54% negative ranking before the primaries?  Not libs or blacks.  It was repubs and Reagan Democrats.  If Hillary were ahead these folks would vote in protest for Obama in the last few primaries.

    Ahhh... (5.00 / 3) (#114)
    by wasabi on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:01:56 PM EST
    So Hillary only wins states because of Republicans throwing the elections.  Well, that is surely one way to look at the results.

    Need more sand in which to bury your head?

    Parent

    Nice Theory But It Isn't Substanciated (5.00 / 1) (#144)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:22:41 PM EST
    when looking at state by state match ups between Obama vs McCain and Clinton vs McCain. After the primaries are over, Republicans have no incentive to lie about who they are going to vote for. Obama and Clinton are running almost even in the percentage of Republican cross over votes in the polls I've seen. OTOH Clinton is retaining more of the Democratic vote.  

    Parent
    the real truth. (1.00 / 1) (#139)
    by rise hillary rise on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:19:12 PM EST
    Obama PEAKED on Super Tuesday-and even that day's victories did not meet expectations. The air has been seeping out of his balloon ever since-DESPITE the MSM coronation process.

    Hillary has won approx 1/2 million MORE votes than he has since then.

    Sigh.  

    Ridiculous (5.00 / 1) (#159)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:34:45 PM EST
    Obamna won 12 straight contests after Super Tuesday.

    Parent
    Caucusses? (5.00 / 0) (#172)
    by Edgar08 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:43:36 PM EST
    Big states?

    Small states?

    Red states?

    How much of that "12 states in a row" talking point is equivalent to Hannity holding up a map in 2004 and saying "look at all that red."?

    Slipping?  Not a collapse.

    Maintaining?  Hmm.

    Certainly not gaining.

    Coach always said you're either going up or down.  That means no one ever just stays the same.  You're either improving or disimproving.


    Parent

    He peaked in WI, end of February. (5.00 / 1) (#168)
    by masslib on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:41:50 PM EST
    So his 11 straight victories were a sign (3.66 / 3) (#148)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:28:52 PM EST
    of air seeping out of his balloon?  

    The real truth is that you would spin anything as a negative for Obama.  

    Sigh.

    Parent

    Yeah (none / 0) (#156)
    by ricky on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:33:24 PM EST
    Unfortunately this claim doesn't have that much merit. You could make that argument for March forwards perhaps.

    Parent
    speaking of heads in the sand (1.00 / 1) (#152)
    by dmk47 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:32:21 PM EST
    When did working class become defined as <$30,000? Is there a single example in this election of anybody using any sum other than $50,000 as the cutoff (in particular, $30,000), until selecting it arbitrarily sustained the meme that Obama can't win working class votes. Also, when did college dropouts get their working-class vouchers revoked? I want to hear more about how there is no difference in career and earnings prospects between those who have at least a BA or BS and those who don't. Because last I looked, an undergraduate degree is correlated with approximately $1,000,000 in added lifetime income on average. Obama won non-college graduates in Oregon 52-48, and won <50k earners 54-45.

    But whatever, even the shell game doesn't make any sense. 46 and 45 percent of a subgroup is perfectly respectable. Nothing magical happens if you add an extra 4.1 and 5.1 percentage points, respectively. If Obama replicates his numbers among Oregon white and working class voters in the fall --- that's not a valid extrapolation, but it's the MO here, and therefore sauce for the gander --- he'll win in a landslide.

    This post is concern trolling.

    Of course it is concern trolling (5.00 / 2) (#158)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:33:57 PM EST
    Anything that does not proclaim Obama the Messiah can only be described as concern trolling.

    One warning for you.  Actually, screw that, you are suspended.

    Do not commment anymore today.

    Parent

    And (none / 0) (#170)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:42:19 PM EST
    when did college STUDENTS get their working class status stamped? do you think there are more college students or dropout sin those numbers?

    I bet you know that you are full of crap.

    And NO, you do not get to respond. that is one of the penalties for calling me a troll. you are out for tomorrow.

    Parent

    Cream City, Obama is not of Arab origin (1.00 / 0) (#247)
    by Seth90212 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:28:51 PM EST
    Take a look at a photo of Obama's father. The man was 100% black African.

    Kenyans of African origin do not necessarily have Christian names. That doesn't even make sense. Christian proselytizers would not disqualify anyone based on origin, and neither would Muslim proselytizers. As a matter of fact, Obama Sr's family converted from native religion to Christianity before converting again to Islam.

    The name itself is an intrinsically black African name. I know that only one letter separates Obama from Osama. Obama, nevertheless, is very consistent with other black African names.


    Exit Polls (none / 0) (#6)
    by Randinho on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:13:24 AM EST
    They are somewhat unreliable in Oregon given the widespread voting by mail.

    Well Clinton (none / 0) (#8)
    by Jgarza on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:15:14 AM EST
    lost African American voters even in Kentucky.   Not winning Clinton voters against Clinton isn't the issue, its when large swaths of Clinton voters say they are defecting to McCain that is a GE problem, or when they allude to race.  

    Just so you know the GE is against McCain not Clinton.

    Frankly (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:16:41 AM EST
    the polls say that African American voters will come back. Indeed, they always do.

    Hillary's coalition, not so much. This is Obama's problem as much as anyone's.

    Parent

    Yes they will come (5.00 / 0) (#22)
    by Jgarza on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:21:15 AM EST
    back, but if AA turnout suffers we loose too, so i don't think it is smart to take any vote for granted.

    Parent
    Let's be pragmatic (5.00 / 3) (#33)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:25:09 AM EST
    if you're looking to win the Presidential election, then you need to worry about working class whites first. Not because they're intrinsically better than AAs (that's obviously false), but because they have historically backed Republicans as well as Democrats. And there are many more of them in the important states. (and yes, there ARE important states and unimportant states, at least as far as Electoral College math is concerned).

    Parent
    Yes but (none / 0) (#67)
    by Jgarza on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:36:13 AM EST
    GE polling does suggest Clinton does any better with whites against McCain.  So I agree that there is a weakness, as with all Dems, but i think this idea that you can read that deeply into primary coalitions is flawed.

    Parent
    I don't have to read into the primary (none / 0) (#72)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:38:34 AM EST
    (though I reject the notion that we shouldn't). The GE polling shows that in the states where such voters matter (OH, MO, NC, and PA especially), Hillary does better. And it's precisely because those voters are supporting her over McCain.  

    Parent
    Well yes she does do better with (5.00 / 1) (#90)
    by Jgarza on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:47:37 AM EST
    whites in certain parts of the country, but he does better west.  The reason her electability argument isn't sticking is because, she does better in the rust belt, but he is 9 points ahead of McCain in Penn, and tied in Ohio and Mich, and in the latest Florida poll tied there.  So he isn't unelectable isnt moving super dels.

    Parent
    It is undeniable (5.00 / 2) (#98)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:52:35 AM EST
    that Hillary is much stronger in the industrial east, especially in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Pretending that there isn't a significant difference between the two candidates there is silly. And frankly, this region is more important in the electoral college than the west.

    Pennsylvania is a must win for Obama, and so are Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico.

    Parent

    read my above comment (none / 0) (#137)
    by Jgarza on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:18:36 PM EST
    where i addressed this.

    Parent
    Being pragmatic... (none / 0) (#78)
    by sweetthings on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:41:58 AM EST
    What about money?

    Can Hillary convince latte liberals to open their wallets the same way Obama does? Will she need to?

    Parent

    Maybe and no. (none / 0) (#85)
    by andgarden on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:46:13 AM EST
    I read she has 90 million (none / 0) (#97)
    by madamab on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:51:30 AM EST
    saved for the GE.

    She's doing just fine.

    Parent

    Read the same here -- (5.00 / 1) (#191)
    by Cream City on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:55:52 PM EST
    the downside of the Solis strategy was that it was a Super Tuesday strategy, projecting that the primary season would be short, so donors were directed to put far more into Clinton's general-election fund.

    The upside is that not only does she have a lot of funding ready for the general election -- she also has triple what Obama has, I read, because Axelrove's strategy was a focus on the primary season and pouring funds into it now . . . as we certainly have seen.

    If Obama continues to need such extraordinary amounts -- three, four, even five times what Clinton spends, sometimes in states that he still can't win -- in the general election, I wonder whether even he can raise enough to cover such costs.  It could take even more to compete with a Republican war chest.

    Parent

    Money for GE (none / 0) (#216)
    by waldenpond on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:11:45 PM EST
    My statement yesterday was that she should run for the GE since she has the money (I was quite pleased with this thought), then I read this morning over on noquarter or corrente that her money people are meeting with Obama's money people.  My guess was they were discussing how to move the GE money.  I imagine they can ask for their money back and shift it to Obama rather than fund Obama too and have Clinton continue.  I was no longer pleased with my thoughts.

    Parent
    Will She Convince The Latte Liberals To Open (none / 0) (#228)
    by MO Blue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:25:57 PM EST
    their wallets the same way Obama does? No. Does she need to? No. Either candidate would have more than enough money for the GE. Clinton already has a sizable nest egg for the GE and large dollar donors will flock to nominee regardless of who it is. Also, as clearly shown in the primary, out spending your opponent 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 does not ensure a victory.

    Parent
    The problem with Kansas... (none / 0) (#23)
    by Artoo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:21:30 AM EST
    Wouldn't those voters be voting against their interests as red state voters so often do because of social issues? Is some writer going to write a book titled "The Problem With Women" in the aftermath of this election if Obama loses to McCain (assuming he gets the nomination)?

    Parent
    please explain (none / 0) (#53)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:30:14 AM EST
    how it is against my interest to not vote for the Anointed One - an untested, faux progressive - when I can have a Dem Congress (even though a weak Dem Congress, if recent history is any indication)?

    Spare the Roe argument - old, tired, and a lame argument as has been shown here time and again.

    Parent

    it's not just Roe (none / 0) (#66)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:35:41 AM EST
    It's the fact that since this election season started McCain has been going further and further to the right on EVERYTHING.  He was always pro-life, but now he also doesn't seem to have a problem with torture, or telecom immunity, or tax breaks for the rich.  Not to mention that he clearly plans to keep us in Iraq for at least 4 more years.  So 4 more years of our troops being human targets for Al-Queda in Iraq.

    Many of those Dems in congress don't always vote Dem (Lieberman).  A Dem president will be able to push through legislation with a much lower margin since they don't need to be veto-proof.

    Parent

    How is Obama different? (5.00 / 3) (#96)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:50:24 AM EST
    He was ok with confirming Roberts until he was told it would hurt politically?

    He is quoted as saying "I think you reserve impeachment for grave, grave breaches, and intentional breaches of the president's authority," - so apparently HE didn't think anything the George & Dick show was so bad, and instead said "There's a way to bring an end to those practices, you know: vote the bums out," the presidential candidate said, without naming Bush or Cheney. "That's how our system is designed." (Of course, it seems the constitutional scholar failed to realize that Bush and Cheney are termed limited, so we can't "cote the bums out").

    His main advisor on Social Security is in favor of privatization.

    His health care plan laves out 15 million people.

    He has been wishy washy with regards to his Iraq policy - saying one thing and Samantha Power telling us not to believe what he says on the campaign trail (same with NAFTA).

    He was not familiar with the Hanford site - a HUGE environmental story of cleaning up the mess left behind by nuclear weapons programs, and he botched it.  Especially damning as the site has gotten more than $2 billion a year for cleanup ($6 billion total since he's been Senator), and we presume he was around when budget bills were debated.

    Sen. Patty Murray, an HRC delegate said it best:

    "I want someone in the White House I will not have to retrain," Murray told the editorial board.

    LINK

    So, I'm still not convinced that he would be any better than McCain.  

    Parent

    Different (5.00 / 3) (#109)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:58:45 AM EST
    His reasoning for maybe supporting Roberts was that he didn't think you should veto a presidential pick on idealogy.  That isn't even close to the same thing as nominating someone like Roberts.

    No one voted for impeachment.  And frankly, there is no precedent for impeaching a VP, so by impeaching Bush you end up with Cheney as president.  NO THANKS.

    He has come out publicly against SSC privatization.

    At least he HAS a health care plan.

    Iraq - it is clearly his intention to remove the troops in his term.  Yes, the hows and whens are debatable, but John McCain is pretty clear that that is not his intention.

    The environment - yes, he botched something, sh*t happens.  And John McCain forgot the difference between Sunni and Shia.  I highly doubt he could've answered anything about the Hanford site.  He doesn't seem to know much about anything besides foreign policy at all.


    Parent

    He's also a bald faced liar (5.00 / 3) (#154)
    by RalphB on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:32:59 PM EST
    Telling people in Oregon on Monday that Iran is no threat.  Then telling people in Montana on Tuesday that he's been saying for years that Iran is a grave threat.

    If a candidate will lie to the public about what is potentially the next flareup, he'll lie about anything.  After the last 7 years of lies about war and piece, I don't want another version of Bush and that seems to be Obama in a nutshell.


    Parent

    ok.... (none / 0) (#207)
    by CST on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:07:05 PM EST
    Look, I get it, Obama is a politician.  Politicians will occasionally back track or exaggerate and even occasionaly outright lie.  But you're crazy if you think McCain and Clinton don't do the same thing.  It's fine if you want to call out Obama on his "new politics" but to say you will never vote for someone who lies in public means that you will never vote.

    Parent
    That they all lie we can agree on (5.00 / 1) (#220)
    by Florida Resident on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:17:05 PM EST
    But, what we don't need is too feed sound bites to the right wing nut jobs, talk shows and 527's.  So we need to be careful.

    Parent
    Maybe? I don't want to vote on maybes (5.00 / 1) (#221)
    by Cream City on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:17:09 PM EST
    and everything I have read (as you apparently have not) on his enthusiasm for Roberts was about Roberts -- not the Feingold reasoning re a president gets to pick his nominees.

    Obama badly misread Roberts, including on Constitutional and civil rights issues, yet Obama's thin resume relies a lot on him having been a civil rights lawyer and Constitutional law "prof."  Not good signs for me.

    Parent

    FYI: Lieberman is an Independent... (none / 0) (#243)
    by NvlAv8r on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:54:10 PM EST
    Not a Democrat. :)

    Parent
    SCOTUS nominations are made by (none / 0) (#86)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:46:41 AM EST
    the President.  Senate at present has not demonstrated any willingness to deny the President his choices for SCOTUS.  Rather ostrich-like to believe the Senate will do so in the future.

    Parent
    The question is what % will vote in the GE. (none / 0) (#61)
    by jimotto on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:33:13 AM EST
    In Oregon, most of the "working class whites" who voted for Clinton will vote Obama.

    In WV and KY, some will, most won't.  

    The big question is what is the difference between these groups of "working class whites".

    difference (none / 0) (#80)
    by pixelpusher on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:44:10 AM EST
    There isn't any difference except for the prevailing culture that surrounds them.  Working-class voters in Oregon will feel more pressure to conform to how the computer geeks in Portland vote, to what they read in the papers, etc.  In Kentucky and WV, there will be less pressure for voters to conform and accept Obama.

    Parent
    So the solution is more geeks in KY and WV? (5.00 / 1) (#123)
    by jimotto on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:09:07 PM EST
    Also cultural norms (none / 0) (#226)
    by ruffian on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:23:20 PM EST
    for liberalism in living arrangements, etc - all the things that make someone a cultural liberal as opposed to a cultural conservative.  Not just following the local geeks.

    Parent
    Part of the answer is (none / 0) (#125)
    by oldpro on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:10:39 PM EST
    the economy of those states and the state's policies/availability of job training/retraining, etc.

    Parent
    I want a Democratic victory (none / 0) (#113)
    by Coral on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:01:44 PM EST
    in November, so I hope some strategists in the Obama camp start to deal with this issue in a clear-headed, pragmatic manner. Obama needs to take a look at his rhetoric and his programs, and find a way to frame aspects of it to appeal to non-AA working and lower-middle classes.

    I think that means talking directly about economic hardships and the middle-class squeeze that so many of us are facing in our daily lives.

    Yeah, I'd love to see Clinton on the ticket -- either at the top, or as the veep -- but if Obama is at the head of the ticket, even with Hillary as VP (don't think it will happen), he has to really start wooing these voters who have rejected him.

    Some may be racism, but those people you're not going to win. It is important to make the case to those who are not out and out bigots, because, we HAVE to win in November.

    Obama is ... (none / 0) (#117)
    by Tortmaster on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:02:58 PM EST
    ... 63 delegates from the nomination. How does he shore up those voters for the General Election, and how much help will HRC provide?

    Also again lost Seniors, Catholics, Latinos -nt- (none / 0) (#126)
    by Exeter on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:11:04 PM EST


    In Oregon he won Catholics. (none / 0) (#153)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:32:37 PM EST
    Also the "senior" vote was very close in Oregon.  She won by just 1 point in the 60 and older demo.

    Parent
    Ok, and... (none / 0) (#193)
    by masslib on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:56:02 PM EST
    is that supposed to be a good thing?  

    Parent
    Yes. improving on demographics (5.00 / 1) (#231)
    by IndiDemGirl on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:37:09 PM EST
    is generally considered a good thing.  

    A claim was made that he had lost Catholics. I pointed out the fact that he had won Catholics in Oregon.

    A claim was made that he lost seniors.  I pointed out that in Oregon it was a very close loss.

    On this site he is constantly criticized for not reaching out to seniors, the poor, etc.

    In Oregon he began making a concerted effort to speak with seniors.  He visited senior citizen centers and held Q & As.  Did that help improve his numbers in OR?  Perhaps.  

    Parent

    Let's look at the real numbers: (none / 0) (#131)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:17:11 PM EST
    In contrast to this thread's supposition, Obama  Beat Clinton among whites with no college, who earn less than $50,000.

    The truth is, Appalachia voters haven't embraced Obama. That's entirely different than saying working class whites in general won't vote for him, as the Hillary campaign has repeatedly suggested.

    In Kentucky Clinton beat Obama among these voters handily, but the Oregon exit polls show a different story.

    In Oregon Obama beat Clinton by sizable margins among all ages of white voters except those 60 and older. And he beat Clinton among voters with no college degree--and since the state is overwhelmingly white, these voters are the ones he's supposed to have trouble with.

    Obama beat Clinton by seven points among voters making less than $50,000 (though she won among voters making between $15,000 and $30,000). Obama also won among voters from a household with a union member.

    These statistics tell a different story from the one being pushed here. If we are going to have this discussion, let's do it with facts.

    Did you even read the post? (5.00 / 3) (#150)
    by dws3665 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:29:54 PM EST
    Your thinking is indeed independent: independent of the relevant points being made.

    Parent
    Thank you for being so polite (none / 0) (#160)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:36:20 PM EST
    and also for providing so much data to backup your assertion that I did not read or understand the original post from Big Tent Democrat.

    In fact, I did read the post and found it slanted heavily toward Clinton. So I decided to take an independent look at the exit poll numbers (or more accurately, the telephone polling done since Oregon does vote-by-mail) and came to a different conclusiion than Big Tent Democrat.

    Parent

    I just responded with real data (5.00 / 1) (#163)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:37:23 PM EST
    your claims are false in your original comment.

    Now what say you?

    Parent

    I stand corrected...somewhat (none / 0) (#189)
    by independent thinker on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:55:48 PM EST
    I looked at the data again and Obama and Clinton were evenly divided among whites who have not finished college. True, if you want to narrow that group to people that have ZERO college, then the numbers change a little. But seriously, how many college students do you know working white collar jobs making more than $50,000? Most of them are working in Starbucks or waiting tables part time to make ends meet. To me this shows that at least partly this is a regional issue. In some parts of the country working class people are more comfortable voting for Obama than other parts. That's all I am trying to say.

    Parent
    that is false (5.00 / 2) (#162)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:36:42 PM EST
    He did NOT win voters with no college earning less than 50k.

    there is no such finding.

    Indeed, Obama narrowly won ALL voters who earned 50k or less.

    But he LOST all voters with no college.

    And he lost all voters who earned less than 30k.

    In essence, the data points to the fact that he lost working class voters in Oregon.

    Parent

    On the no college degree nonsense (none / 0) (#166)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:38:35 PM EST
    I made the point in this post that you chose to ignore that ALL college students do not have a college degree.

    That does not make them working class. Quite the opposite in fact.

    Parent

    "Appalachia voters haven't . . (none / 0) (#167)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:40:58 PM EST

     . . embraced Obama"

    define "Appalachia"

    Parent

    hey you (none / 0) (#173)
    by CanadianDem on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:43:44 PM EST
    Anninca?

    More falsehoods (none / 0) (#185)
    by dmk47 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:53:56 PM EST
    Oregon, a state as favorable as you can find for Obama on [income and education]

    Oregon ranks T-8th nationally in unemployment (5.7%), 14th in percentage of uninsured (16.6%), 23rd in poverty (9.2%), 29th in median household income ($46,349), link, and 28th in per capita income, link.

    Compare to Ohio:

    T-8th in unemployment (5.7%), 40th in percentage uninsured (10.7%), 17th in poverty (10.1%), 31st in median household income ($45,776), 29th in per capita income.

    Like I said, pure concern trolling.

    Peter Wallsten, LA Times: (none / 0) (#225)
    by oculus on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:23:14 PM EST
    WALLSTEN

    Comforting to learn Obama campaign is targeting high school kids.

    Some college (none / 0) (#239)
    by indiependy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:49:57 PM EST
    The category "some college" seems way too broad to be making any definitive won or lost claims in regards to the working class. There's every reason to believe it contains a large amount of working class people who dropped out of college, took or are taking a few classes at a community college, or went to a community college for a little while but never got their AA degree. There's a large group of hard working people out there that fall into the "some college", to insinuate the category is all full-time college students is disingenuous.

    So where exactly does the working class end? (none / 0) (#245)
    by minordomo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:13:35 PM EST
    Is it under $30,000 (19%) or under $50,000 (40%)? And if Obama does get the majority of those under $50K, to what extent does it matter if he is behind among a subset of 10% of those 40%?

    And the next interesting question is how do these various demographic groups do in a GE lineup - where do they stand between Obama and McCain?

    Back to BTD (none / 0) (#246)
    by 1jane on Wed May 21, 2008 at 02:18:19 PM EST
    What happened to your delete key?  We are told not to use foul language and to be generally polite and on topic in statements.

    My Oregon County went +19 points for Obama. My county is rural, working class with many fewer college educated residents. We have a Democratic Governor who supported Mrs. Clinton. The 60+ crowd stayed with her all the way. The Obama and Clinton supporters met this morning and had a unity breakfast and agreed our job is to defeat McCain, period.

    Boiling Mad, that's what I am... (none / 0) (#248)
    by NO2WONDERBOY on Wed May 21, 2008 at 03:04:12 PM EST
    At 6:35pm CT, Brit Hume on MSNBC announced that Senator Clinton had the final persuasive argument to the SDs for being nominated. He showed Senator Clinton's face bobbing from side-to-side, pasted to the torso of a BIG bosomed woman wearing a very revealing, low-cleavaged red shirt. The nerve of these people! And what made me even more mad, was that one of the members of the panel was a woman, who instead of being offended, chimed in the laughter of those gutter slimes that pass as men!
    If there ever was cause for suing for aggravated sexual/ist harassment and predatory defamation.

    To put the `icing on the cake', on CNN with Anderson Cooper,  Castellanos counteracted Tobin's criticism against those who called her a b**h, saying that she was a B**H and deserved to be called one. This panel did not break out in laughter, I perceived some `discomfort' (they kind-a lowered their eyes), but neither Gloria nor Donna condemned the statement. I JUST CANNOT BELIEVE IT!

    We're no longer talking about what a lousy job these people do of `reporting', or as commentators, they are low-down, rejected specimens of the human race. That person they are disparaging is a woman (unless they crawled from under a rock, I believe they were given birth by a woman) and a Senator of the United States of America.