Watch for yourselves. What's your take?

Despite the media predictions she will suspend her campaign Wednesday, is she saying she will stay in longer? Or is she just trying to make sure the people in MT and SD have a reason to go out and vote and she has an opportunity to meet with superdelegates when the voting has ended? [More...]

This is an update to this morning's post about Peniel Cronin's latest report on the caucus vs. primary results in the Democratic presidential nomination race.

I sent her some questions I received from readers. She answers that her notes and figures are correct. However, to make it easier for readers to discern the difference in what she is saying, she has modified some of the wording in the footnotes.

The revised report is here. (The original report is here.)She adds: [More...]

Hot off the press and only available at TalkLeft: Peniel Cronin's revised Caucus v. Primary report with numbers updated to today, showing how the caucuses, compared to primaries, have unfairly disenfranchised voters. (Background and original report here.)

I want this report to get as much exposure as possible. Thus, this post will stay at the top of TalkLeft for several hours. New posts will be below it.

Some Findings:

• 35.6 million people have voted
• The 37 primary states account for 97% of the vote.
• The 13 caucus states account for 3% of the vote.

Bottom line: Clinton’s lead is from 34.5 million voters (97%) in Primaries. Obama’s lead is from 1.1 million voters (3%) in caucuses. [More...]

Just for fun, ARG has some incredible polling for Clinton in South Dakota and Montana:

South Dakota

Clinton 60
Obama 34

Um what?

Montana

Clinton 44
Obama 48

Hmmm. It is ARG, but just for fun.

By Big Tent Democrat

Kathleen Reardon asks:

Why would a Hillary Clinton supporter vote for McCain? It does seem ludicrous. After all, he represents four to eight more years of George W. Bush. The country can't afford that.

. . . Yet why not turn the question around? If keeping McCain out of the White House is vital to America, why, despite what's touted as Hillary Clinton's "baggage," would Barack Obama not want her as the vice presidential candidate any less than she, as the nominee, would want him in that spot if it made a McCain win unlikely? Revenge? Not good enough. Disdain for a woman who criticized him as not ready to be president?

More...

I wonder if this is really what Barack Obama thinks:

Some Democrats have created Web sites to promote what they see as one solution -- an Obama-Clinton "dream ticket" -- but senior advisers in both campaigns see little chance of that happening. A big reason, they agree: the wild card of having Bill Clinton, a former president and one whose campaign statements have sparked repeated controversies, as part of the package.

(Emphasis supplied.) Excuse me? Having Bill Clinton, the last two term Democratic President, involved and campaigning for an Obama Presidency is a BAD thing? Is this the thinking in the Obama inner circle? Is purging the Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party the official policy of the Barack Obama campaign? If it is, he is going to lose.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Comments closed

You heard this one before right? The Super Delegates will decide the Democratic Presidential nominee for President. And indeed, they almost already have. Since May 6, Hillary Clinton has gained 55 more pledged delegates than Barack Obama. But Barack Obama has gained in the neighborhood of 75 more automatic delegates than Hillary Clinton. Thus, while Obama has a 51%-48% lead among pledged delegates, he has around a 62%-38% lead among the super delegates. In terms of the popular vote, my own count, I will spare you from my explanation again, has Obama leading by approximately 20,000 votes out of over 36,000,000 cast. In essence, a popular vote tie.

More....

The best article I've read on the Saturday debacle of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting in which it decided to seat Michigan and Florida delegates with 1/2 vote each and award delegates who voted for Hillary to Barack Obama, is Dana Milbank's in the Washington Post.

It's a great read, you will feel like you were in the room witnessing the dissension, the childishness and the pettiness of all involved, from the committee members to Rep. Robert Wexler, and the resentment it caused among the spectators, which by now has spread across the party.

It also brings home the utter political stupidity of the committee's final ruling. I'll put a few quotes below, but there are so many more just go read the whole thing. [More...]

Real Clear Politics as of 10 pm ET:

• Votes with Michigan and Florida as cast: Hillary leads by Clinton 303,785.

• Votes with Michigan and Florida as cast and the cacus states estimates for WA, IA, ME and NV which didn't keep track: Hillary leads by 193,563.

• Votes with Florida and Michigan, with uncommitted in Michigan going to Obama: Hillary leads by 65,617.

• Obama is only ahead if you give him the uncommitted in Michigan and count the above caucus states, and then it's by 44,605.

More...

I love Markos, he's a very good friend, but this has to be the funniest version of the popular vote total.

By the way, in the real popular vote, including Florida which the DNC now accepts, and excluding Michigan, which the DNC now rejects, and including the caucus states (which Clinton and her camp want to disenfranchise), the numbers currently are Obama +183,067.

So, the DNC wants to count delegates from Michigan, including awarding 4 delegates to Obama that Hillary won, but give her none of the 328,309 votes she won in the state certified election?

Telling 328,309 voters from Michigan who voted for Hillary their vote doesn't count because another candidate voluntarily removed himself from the ballot has to be one of the dumbest moves ever.

From the Real Clear Politics popular vote total link that Markos cites :

Via William Arnone's Updated Key State Analysis which I reprinted with his permission in March:

Hispanic/Latino voters comprise 6% of the voting population nationwide. This represents an increase of 2% since 2000. With 13% of the total population and 17% of the population under age 18, Hispanics/Latinos are potentially the fastest-growing segment of the electorate.

In 2004, the Democratic ticket nationwide won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 11%. This was a shift to the Republican Party of 25 percentage points from the Democratic Presidential ticket’s margin of 36% in 2000. In 1996, the Democratic ticket nationwide won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 51%.

More...

Update: CNN now has 98% of vote in . Hillary has a 140,000 vote lead.

96% of the vote is in. Check the links for final updates. Right now:

• Hillary: 254,482 votes, 68.38%
• Obama: 117,651 votes, 31.62%

Hillary leads by about 137,000 votes.

Delegate analysis here. Turnout looks to be about 375,000 so far.