Barack Obama is moments away from reaching the 2,118 pledged delegate threshold. CNN says he is 12 away.

The media has declared him the Democratic nominee and is beginning the post-mortem.

Will Hillary agree he has won the nomination and suspend her campaign tonight after all?

I'll be live-blogging her speech.

Comments closed.

4:45 pm: Terry McCauliffe tells Wolf Blitzer Hillary absolutely will not drop out tonight.

He says he and Hillary are making superdelegate calls. She has more voters than any other candidate in presidential primary history. "We're still going."

Laugh of the segment: Going into a commercial break, Wolf says: "But could the superdelegates still sway her way? Come back and we'll ask our expert, Donna Brazile."

These threads are filling up fast. We need some topical music video suggestions. Ideas?

This is an open thread.

Update: Jon Ausman, whose Florida challenge to the seating of delegates was heard on Saturday, announces is 1/2 superdelegate vote will go to Hillary. Why? He wants a joint ticket and she is the key to winning Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Shorter version (mine): Obama can't win those states without her, and the Dems won't win the presidency without them.

CNN is reporting Hillary has told New York lawmakers that she is open to the VP slot.

Now here's the funny part: Suzanne Malveaux reports that the Obama campaign says she is on the "short list" but is concerned that the Clintons haven't been fully vetted.

Could the media do any more today to discourage those in SD and MT from voting? This is their third attempt to tell them their vote doesn't matter, may as well stay home.[More...]

The AP, which still has egg on its face from this morning's false report that Hillary would concede to Obama, does it again.

The AP is sending out a breaking news report, complete with post-mortem analysis, that Obama has reached the magic number and is officially the nominee.

Votes are cast at the convention in August. Superdelegates can change their mind any time before then. If this went to an open convention, even pledged delegates would be released from their pledge after the first vote.

This does not mean it's going to the convention. It means that until one candidate drops out, there can be no winner because the number of delegates that candidate has can change any time until the convention.

Until and unless Hillary Clinton publicly suspends or ends her campaign and concedes that Obama is the nominee, there is no nominee. There is only a statement that if current delegate positions at this moment were frozen in time until August he would be the nominee.

If and when Hillary makes that determination, then Obama will be the nominee. At that point TalkLeft will congratulate him and offer him our support. We're not there yet.

Comments now closed.

Update: Statement from Clinton Campaign:

The AP story is incorrect. Senator Clinton will not concede the nomination this evening.

Update: The Clinton campaign has sent out a press release denying the AP report. She will not suspend her campaign tonight nor will she concede Obama is the defacto winner. I just got off the phone with her internet communications director who told me he just received a copy.

So now the AP is falling for a story the only effect of which would be voter suppression in two states? How do these things happen? [More...]

There are conflicting news reports on whether Barack Obama will declare victory tonight in the presidential nomination.

This morning on Good Morning America, George Stephanapoulus said he will:

"He will declare victory tonight in a moment of history," ABC News' chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulous told "Good Morning America."

Obama, D-Ill., is expected to speak shortly after 10 p.m. Eastern while the votes are still being counted in the final two primary states of Montana and South Dakota....

I think Obama's response will depend on what Hillary does. She will be speaking in New York tonight. While some media reports say she will concede the race, others say she will not and will take another day to make her case to superdelegates that she is more electable in November.

So long as Hillary remains in the race, and Barack Obama does not have 2,118 pledged delegates, I think he will avoid claiming he has won the nomination, giving Hillary the time she needs to make whatever decision she is going to make.

That certainly would be his wisest course.

Unlike Jeralyn, I believe this campaign is all but over and Barack Obama will be the nominee. Believing that, most of my thoughts have been focused on how Democrats make sure they do not kick away an election they should win comfortably. What concerns me most is whether the impulse we read from many Obama supporters and in the Media to purge the Democratic Party of its Clinton Wing is the thinking of the Obama campaign. Last night, Josh Marshall provided a variation on this theme:

I think the most revealing thing . . . is that Bill refers to the youtube viral video of Rev. Pfleger as "the movie." In a sense, of course, this is just a triviality of word choice; he's a little out of touch with the lingo. But for me -- maybe just the personal prism through which I see the drama -- it communicates the larger truth: that Bill is a man out of his time, out of his element, which is something painful to watch and must be a unique agony for him to experience.

I find this a dangerous attitude for two main reasons. First, because Marshall seems prepared to toss out the Democratic strength of being able to point to the Clinton Presidency as an example of Democratic governance. Second, it seems to me to show a real contempt for older people, who, in case people have forgotten, STILL vote in higher numbers that the much vaunted youth vote. It is a dangerous game to play. More.

Here's the link to Lobby Superdelegates.

Pick your state, tell them you are a constituent and make your case for your favorite candidate.

Superdelegates can make up their minds or change their minds anytime up until the convention. So long as Hillary stays in the race, there is no victor. As of tonight and tomorrow, this is a two person race.

Obama leads in pledged delegates, but doesn't have the magic number. Hillary leads in the popular vote. More people have voted for her than Obama.

With neither candidate winning both the pledged delegate total and the popular vote, the question is, who is more electable in November and who can better lead our country?

Don't be shy, this may be your last chance.

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At an appearance in Sioux Falls Monday night, Hillary Clinton said she is getting ready to begin the next phase of her campaign -- convincing superdelegates that she is more electable in November and better able to lead the country as President. This was her 5th visit to the state.

Clinton hinted that she isn’t ready to abandon her campaign, even though Sen. Barack Obama leads her in delegates. Clinton has no chance of making up her deficit in the remaining contests.

But Clinton and her supporters will make the case to superdelegates that her lead in the popular vote, and her wins in several key states, make her the strongest candidate. “We have a very strong case to make that I am in the best position to take back the White House,” she said.

From a briefing book (pdf) prepared for the primary on South Dakota: [More...]

Update: Turnout is expected to be high.

We took a look at South Dakota here. Now it's time for Montana. From a briefing book:

Montana has 16 pledged delegates an 9 superdelegates. It has long been assumed to be in Barack Obama's corner.

Total population: 958,000. The African American population is 0.4%. Latino is 2.5% and Native American is anywhere between 6.3%.

There are 628,429 Registered Voters, not compiled by party.

Because its polls close an hour later than South Dakota's, it will get bragging rights as being the state to push a candidate over the top or at least close out this primary season.

The last Democrat to win in the presidential general election in Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992, perhaps because Ross Perot took votes from the Republican candidate. Bush won big in both 2000 and 2004.

The Rocky Mountain News reports:

Sen. Ken Salazar joined a small group of fellow undecided Democratic superdelegates on Capitol Hill today, but said they reached no agreement on whether to endorse a presidential candidate as a group.

The gathering created a major stir amid published reports that up to 15 previously uncommitted senators were on the verge of giving a united endorsement to Democratic front-runner Sen. Barack Obama.

Salazar said he could make the case for either candidate. Others at the meeting included: Sens. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa; Ben Cardin, D-Md.; and Tom Carper, D-Del. [More...]

Matt Stoller and I have disagreed on any number of things over the years, but one thing we have always agreed on is our admiration for General Wes Clark. Here he makes the case for Clark for VP. Read the whole thing, and I endorse the merits based argument for Clark, but I am interested here to the reaction on the unity part of his argument:

On the other political point, Clark is a Clintonista through and through, and so putting him on the ticket would be a key signal to the Clinton world that they will have influence in an Obama administration.. . . [T]he Clinton people need an incentive to work aggressively for the ticket, and Clark is that incentive. . . . Clark is . . . a supremely progressive advocate, and probably the best Clinton loyalist on national security issues that progressives have. . . . [MORE . . .]