John Edwards was the rock star tonight in Des Moines. Mellencamp did a great warm-up, Elizabeth did a worthy introduction, but Edwards owned the night. He had that fire in the belly, the kind of passion you just can't make up. The crowd knew it too.

I'll have video much later or in the morning. Right now the bar downstairs is packed and that's where I'm headed.

Update, 2:00 am Iowa Time: The bar was hopping. Bill Clinton was holding court in the lobby outside the bar with Susan Estrich holding his arm, trying to get him upstairs-- only at the same time he was engaged in a discussion with Fox News' Greta Van Susteran (who looked terrific) that ended with Clinton describing his cowboy boot collection. (More....)

The Unitary Executive theory, in vogue during the Bush administration, holds that all executive branch employees serve a president who has unilateral authority to direct their actions, to overrule their decisions, and to fire their butts when they refuse to do the president's bidding. An investigation of an executive agency by another executive agency in a Unitary Executive branch amounts to the president investigating himself.

Patrick Fitzgerald acted with integrity in prosecuting Scooter Libby. He should be the model for John Durham, a federal prosecutor in Connecticut who, according to Attorney General Mukasey, will lead an outside criminal investigation into the CIA's destruction of interrogation tapes. Durham has relevant experience: he oversaw an outside investigation of the FBI’s mishandling of mob informants in Boston.

The announcement is the first sign that investigators believe C.I.A. officers, possibly along with other government officials, may have committed criminal acts in their handling of the tapes, which depicted the interrogations in 2002 of two Al Qaeda operatives and were destroyed in 2005.

Durham's investigation will be conducted in grand jury rooms and in private interviews. Congress needs to conduct its own investigation (without immunizing witnesses who might be appropriate targets of prosecution) into the administration's knowledge or involvement.

In a very eloquent and well written defense of Senator Barack Obama and his political style (the central POLITICAL issue of this campaign imo), MYDD diarist Shaun Appleby makes the sincere case for Obama's political style, as opposed to Mark Schmitt's defense of Obama's political style as schtick. But Appleby miunderstands the key question in my opinion. He writes:

It could be argued readily that Obama is a potent progressive, and that his strategy for his own candidacy is his prerogative, as long as the end result advances progressive ideology significantly. But he is critiqued for his strategy as well as his positions . . .

(Emphasis supplied.) The reason he is critiqued for his strategy is precisely because those of us who do so believe "the end result does [NOT] advance progressive ideology significantly." This is perhaps the most frustrating thing about discussing these issues with Obama supporters. They seem incapable of understanding that we do not criticize Obama's political style on aesthetic grounds; we criticize his style because we think it will not work to actually EFFECT CHANGE. We believe that despite his being touted as the change candidate, his political style is the one LEAST likely to achieve progressive policy change.

We could of course, be wrong. Let's discuss whether we are or not. But please, respectfully, address the critique, not the strawman.

The Saga of Susan Klopfer. Clinton precinct captain loudly switched to Obama. Now switching to Edwards, erm, Richardson. Wait no, Edwards?

Oh please. Susan Klopfer, your 15 minutes are over already.

One last night for the candidates to make their case.

Hillary will be on Letterman tonight. She taped it in Cedar Rapids. She then went to her Des Moines campaign office to give a pep talk to staffers.

John Edwards made 11 stops today and is finishing with a big event in Des Moines with John Mellencamp -- that's where Jane and I will be.

The media has taken over this town. Sean Hannity's crew is at the bar/restaurant next door to our hotel -- he'll be broadcasting H&C from there. The Fox News people are staying at our hotel, as are the Clintons. Shep Smith got in last night. He told me Greta is here too, but I haven't seen her yet. Makes sense though.

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Jeralyn is still traveling the plains so I figure I'll start an Iowa predictions thread.

Here's mine. I'll accept the Iowa Gold Standard poll's order of finish.

Obama by 3 over Hillary 3 ahead of Edwards.

Biden 4th.
Richardson 5th.
Dodd 6th.
Gravel and Kucinich last.

The spin? A HUGE win for Obama and he rolls on to the nomination.

Your turn.

Update (Jeralyn): From the plains (and they look like plains to me) -- I think Hillary comes in first and Edwards second.

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Update: Hillary's event was packed with hundreds of Iowans -- there were a lot of middle aged and elderly people. They were very enthusiastic and cheered a lot, particularly on health care. It started almost an hour late, which meant we were late getting to Obama's event at the Marriott in Coralville. We got there just as the doors opened and people started leaving. There were a lot of people -- they were predominantly young and younger. There were a lot of junior and high school age kids who obviously were too young to vote. We waited and watched everyone come out. Towards the end there were a few middle aged people, but just a few. It was also a very white crowd. We only saw a handful of minorities.

Conclusion: If the college kids come out for Obama, he's in good shape. If the elderly come out for Clinton, she's in good shape. It's all about the turnout at this point. I'll have some video later I hope. My last computer battery is dying and we have an hour or more drive back to Des Moines. More when I can get near a power outlet.

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If the gold standard Des Moines Register poll is right, then a Barack Obama Field of Dreams depends on non-Democrats deciding who should win the Iowa Democratic caucus.

That is a fact, no matter how much Obama supporters do not like to hear it. The rules allow for this so that is that.

Clinton leads among registered Democrats who are likely caucus goers by 6 points in the DMR poll, 33-27. And if the turnout demographic is the same as in 2004, Clinton wins by 31-29. (This explains the discrepancy between the DMR poll and other polls, who are now scramblng to align themselves with the DMR turnout model.)

So it comes down to that - will the non-Dems come to decide the Iowa Democratic caucus. That is the question for tomorrow night. If they do, Obama wins. If they do not, he does not. The Ultimate Test for the Kumbaya Schtick.

I leave you with Jeralyn until tomorrow.

I told anyone who would listen I do not trust Zogby. Today we see why:

Democrat Barack Obama pulled even with Hillary Clinton in Iowa, with John Edwards close behind, in a tightening three-way race one day before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. Obama gained two points overnight and Clinton lost two points to deadlock at 28 percent among Democrats in Iowa, with Edwards in a statistical dead heat behind them at 26 percent.

Is that so Mr. Zogby? Heck of a polling night January 1 ay? You would not be aligning yourself with the DMR poll now would you?

Obama, an Illinois senator, made small gains among independents and solidified his strength among younger voters . . .

Sure. Whatever you say Zogby. I do not trust the Zogby poll.

Update [2008-1-2 9:7:53 by Big Tent Democrat]: I am finding that pollsters are aligning their results to the DMR turnout model. A Strategic Vision poll that finished polling on December 30, the day before the DMR poll was released (thus no DMR bump), was released TODAY, 3 days later and shows Obama up and Clinton down. What are these pollsters doing? Does this just reflect what the DMR poll captured? In a word, NO. They juked their stats by changing their turnout model is what happened. What we have now is everyone adjusting to the DMR poll. Forget polls now. They are all just parroting the DMR poll. In essence it is the FINAL poll until the caucus.

I just rode up the elevator at my hotel with Dorothy Rodham, Hillary Clinton's mother. I didn't recognize her. It was around 10:30 pm. I was waiting for the elevator to go up to my room with my laptop in one hand and a glass of brandy in the other. She walked up with a young woman holding her arm -- they were bundled up and had just come in from outside.

I wondered if she might be Helen Thomas, but aside from the age similarity, they looked nothing alike. Since I didn't recognize her, I stopped paying attention. Then she and her companion made a comment to each other about how cold it was outside. Being polite, I chimed in. Here's the conversation that followed:

Me: It is cold. A glass of brandy really helps (I lift my glass to them.)

Dorothy Rodham: (Laughs, then says): You look so familiar. Are you on MTV?

Me: (Very perplexed, partly because I wish I looked young enough to be on MTV but more because I can't imagine this elderly woman watches MTV): I'm Jeralyn Merritt. I'm a legal analyst but not on MTV.

Mrs. Rodham: That must be why I know you. You look so Irish.
Me: Oh...only I'm not Irish.
Mrs. Rodham: Well, those eyes, they're so green. You look so Irish.

The elevator arrives, we get in. [More...]

Dennis Kucinich today asked his caucus goers to support Barack Obama.

He said his request is only for Iowa supporters as he intends to win in New Hampshire.

Obama's response:

He said he and Kucinich have fought for some of the same priorities, including ending the war in Iraq, reforming Washington and creating a better life for working families.

When Obama backs Kucinich's positions on the war on drugs, the death penalty, mandatory minimums and the Patriot Act -- even immigration-- then it might mean something. As of tonight, it's not a reason to switch to Obama vs. Edwards or Hillary.

Hillary and Bill are still staying at the same hotel as me and Jane. While we were out at dinner last night, they were here -- they did photos with the New Year's revelers and use the main entrance (not the kitchen as Bill did in '99)

Here's a tidbit of trivia for you: Secret Service regulations say the President can't stay higher than the level to which the fire department's tallest hook and ladder reaches. At our hotel it reaches to the 10th floor. So the presidential suite is lower than the top floor of the hotel.

Hillary's staffers are doing a karaoke tonight at a sports bar connected to a bowling alley. I'm told it's the best bowling alley in town. The press is invited.

Most of the Democratic candidates are out of Des Moines doing their final rounds but will back here by Thursday and the parties are all in Des Moines Thursday night.