I told anyone who would listen I do not trust Zogby. Today we see why:

Democrat Barack Obama pulled even with Hillary Clinton in Iowa, with John Edwards close behind, in a tightening three-way race one day before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. Obama gained two points overnight and Clinton lost two points to deadlock at 28 percent among Democrats in Iowa, with Edwards in a statistical dead heat behind them at 26 percent.

Is that so Mr. Zogby? Heck of a polling night January 1 ay? You would not be aligning yourself with the DMR poll now would you?

Obama, an Illinois senator, made small gains among independents and solidified his strength among younger voters . . .

Sure. Whatever you say Zogby. I do not trust the Zogby poll.

Update [2008-1-2 9:7:53 by Big Tent Democrat]: I am finding that pollsters are aligning their results to the DMR turnout model. A Strategic Vision poll that finished polling on December 30, the day before the DMR poll was released (thus no DMR bump), was released TODAY, 3 days later and shows Obama up and Clinton down. What are these pollsters doing? Does this just reflect what the DMR poll captured? In a word, NO. They juked their stats by changing their turnout model is what happened. What we have now is everyone adjusting to the DMR poll. Forget polls now. They are all just parroting the DMR poll. In essence it is the FINAL poll until the caucus.

I just rode up the elevator at my hotel with Dorothy Rodham, Hillary Clinton's mother. I didn't recognize her. It was around 10:30 pm. I was waiting for the elevator to go up to my room with my laptop in one hand and a glass of brandy in the other. She walked up with a young woman holding her arm -- they were bundled up and had just come in from outside.

I wondered if she might be Helen Thomas, but aside from the age similarity, they looked nothing alike. Since I didn't recognize her, I stopped paying attention. Then she and her companion made a comment to each other about how cold it was outside. Being polite, I chimed in. Here's the conversation that followed:

Me: It is cold. A glass of brandy really helps (I lift my glass to them.)

Dorothy Rodham: (Laughs, then says): You look so familiar. Are you on MTV?

Me: (Very perplexed, partly because I wish I looked young enough to be on MTV but more because I can't imagine this elderly woman watches MTV): I'm Jeralyn Merritt. I'm a legal analyst but not on MTV.

Mrs. Rodham: That must be why I know you. You look so Irish.
Me: Oh...only I'm not Irish.
Mrs. Rodham: Well, those eyes, they're so green. You look so Irish.

The elevator arrives, we get in. [More...]

Dennis Kucinich today asked his caucus goers to support Barack Obama.

He said his request is only for Iowa supporters as he intends to win in New Hampshire.

Obama's response:

He said he and Kucinich have fought for some of the same priorities, including ending the war in Iraq, reforming Washington and creating a better life for working families.

When Obama backs Kucinich's positions on the war on drugs, the death penalty, mandatory minimums and the Patriot Act -- even immigration-- then it might mean something. As of tonight, it's not a reason to switch to Obama vs. Edwards or Hillary.

Hillary and Bill are still staying at the same hotel as me and Jane. While we were out at dinner last night, they were here -- they did photos with the New Year's revelers and use the main entrance (not the kitchen as Bill did in '99)

Here's a tidbit of trivia for you: Secret Service regulations say the President can't stay higher than the level to which the fire department's tallest hook and ladder reaches. At our hotel it reaches to the 10th floor. So the presidential suite is lower than the top floor of the hotel.

Hillary's staffers are doing a karaoke tonight at a sports bar connected to a bowling alley. I'm told it's the best bowling alley in town. The press is invited.

Most of the Democratic candidates are out of Des Moines doing their final rounds but will back here by Thursday and the parties are all in Des Moines Thursday night.

Today's afternoon delight was a Mitt Romney house party at the home of Ann Warren and family. It was in a suburban neighborhood where the houses are all white or beige and look almost identical.

Jane and I were among the first to arrive, well before any other media. Ann welcomed us in and didn't seem to mind we were bloggers.

After chatting with Oscar Poale, above, a former minister who now owns a Georgia Bar-B-Q place and shows up at a lot of Romney events, I began talking to Rich, who lives a few doors down from the Warrens.

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In a comment, Anonymous Liberal states:

While it's certainly true that Obama's strategy is geared around getting more votes from independents than his rivals, it's still true that he's counting on the vast majority of his votes coming from Democrats. . . . It's very different than Liebermanism.

I do not know what Obama is trying to do but I do know what the DMR Poll is purporting - to wit, that the majority of Obama's support is from NON-Democrats:

Clinton remains the favorite of the party faithful, with support from a third of self-described Democrats. However, Obama is the clear choice of caucusgoers who affiliate with neither the Democrat or Republican parties, with roughly 40 percent of them backing him in the survey. The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican.

So Obama gets 40% from 45% (assuming he gets at least 40% of GOP "Dem" caucus goers) and 27% of the 55% Dem Dem caucusgoers. Let's do the math:

0.4 × 0.45 = 18. 0.27 × 0.55 = 14.8.

Ergo, the MAJORITY of Obama's support in Iowa does NOT come from Democratic voters. It comes from Republicans and Independents. That is what the DMR poll tells us.

I'll be watching college football the rest of the day. I am not sure when J will check in.

Go Gators!

This is an Open Thread.

Update [2008-1-1 18:23:53 by Big Tent Democrat]: Hail To The Victors.

I have been incredibly hard on Barack Obama's campaign strategist David Axelrod for his campaign strategy. Axelrod has had Obama eschew partisan politics and avoid strong conrast with conservatives and Republicans. I have disliked the strategy as bad both for Obama's chances AND as bad for the Democratic Party. I am a believer in a politics of contrast.

But at least on the question of whether it is good strategy for Obama, Axelrod has won a very important convert - Ann Seltzer, the Des Moines Register pollster. In her final poll, the Gold Standard poll, Ms. Seltzer predicts Obama losing among Democrats but being swept to a big victory by bringing in unprecedented numbers of Independent and Republican voters to vote for Obama. This is, in a nutshell, the Obama strategy -- win with Independents and Republicans. If this works, Joe Lieberman must be wondering why he did not hire Axelrod in 2004.

In essence, Axelrod has run a New Hampshire McCain campaign in Iowa (where crossover voting is much more difficult, Indys have to register as Dems in Iowa, they do not in NH, these folks have to sit through a 3 hour caucus in Iowa, all they have to do is vote in NH), and Ann Seltzer, the most respected pollster in the business, is telling us it worked.

If it turns out this way on Thursday night, then all credit to Axelrod for seeing a strategy that the CW would never see. Including me.

I am not happy that non-Dems in Iowa could very well choose the Dem nominee for President. But the rules are what they are, and Axelrod works for Obama, not the Democratic Party. He could become a "genius" come Thursday night.

Zogby tracker:

Clinton 30 (30)
Obama 26 (26)
Edwards 25 (26)

CNN/Opinion Resesrch:

Clinton 33 (27)
Obama 31 (23)
Edwards 22 (28)

DMR is the gold standard of Iowa polls. So far no other poll agrees with that. It seems clear that these pollsters expect a different demographic to turn up.

Update [2008-1-1 10:43:4 by Big Tent Democrat]: Mark Blumenthal has a great writeup on the DMR poll. In words of great praise that I agree with for Ann Seltzer, the DMR pollster, Blumenthal writes:

Having said that, we all know that the conditions for survey research are treacherous this week, and even the best pollsters (and methods) are fallible even under the best of conditions. But with everything on the line, Selzer has done what good pollsters are trained to do: She put her trust in her methods and the results they produced, even when those results contradict conventional wisdom.

All respect for Ms. Seltzer for that. Watch Zogby hedge his results to more closely align with DMR now. It is whjy I do not trust him.

Running counter to every other recently released poll, the DMR Poll not only has Obama holding his lead but widening it:

Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.

Remember, the DMR Poll nailed the order of the 2004 Iowa Caucus and is easily the most respected Iowa poll. Obama will now be the odds on favorite to win the Iowa Caucuses.

(Speaking for me only) If the DMR poll is accurate, I predict that not only will Obama win Iowa, he will win the nomination.

It's beyond cold here -- and I say that as someone who's used to the cold. The wind is very strong and there's humidity making for the kind of cold that chills you to the bone.

It's 7 degrees out with a wind chill factor of minus 15 to 25. It will not get out of the single digits tomorrow. By Wednesday, the temperature will climb a bit and by caucus day, while it will still be cold, it's not expected to deter people from coming out since snow is not expected.

Where were your candidates tonight? Joe Biden was on the local news extolling his family members including his 90 year old mother, who are here with him in Iowa. His wife, daughter, two sons who are attorneys (one is AG of Delaware) have been coming out every weekend to campaign for him. He still thinks the race is wide open. Since he doesn't have a real shot of winning, it makes me wonder what he's really running for. I'd guess Secretary of State.

John Edwards is spending the evening with family.

Last night, Hillary and Bill stayed at the hotel that Jane and I are staying. I assume they are still here but I haven't seen them. It's not a big hotel. At 9:45 pm, everyone's invited to a Hillary event at 4th & Locust. Jane says it's an outdoor concert with Big Head Todd and the Monsters. Outdoor? I don't think so. But in case there's also an inside party, we may head down there just before midnight. Bill and Hillary will both be there.

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Greetings from Des Moines! Wherever you are tonight -- whatever you're doing -- we wish you a happy and healthy new year.

Something to be joyful about: By this time next year, we will have elected a new President. The 8 year reign of George W. Bush will finally be over. While we will be cleaning up his mess for years to come, at least the worst is be behind us.

Happy New Year everyone!