It's beyond cold here -- and I say that as someone who's used to the cold. The wind is very strong and there's humidity making for the kind of cold that chills you to the bone.

It's 7 degrees out with a wind chill factor of minus 15 to 25. It will not get out of the single digits tomorrow. By Wednesday, the temperature will climb a bit and by caucus day, while it will still be cold, it's not expected to deter people from coming out since snow is not expected.

Where were your candidates tonight? Joe Biden was on the local news extolling his family members including his 90 year old mother, who are here with him in Iowa. His wife, daughter, two sons who are attorneys (one is AG of Delaware) have been coming out every weekend to campaign for him. He still thinks the race is wide open. Since he doesn't have a real shot of winning, it makes me wonder what he's really running for. I'd guess Secretary of State.

John Edwards is spending the evening with family.

Last night, Hillary and Bill stayed at the hotel that Jane and I are staying. I assume they are still here but I haven't seen them. It's not a big hotel. At 9:45 pm, everyone's invited to a Hillary event at 4th & Locust. Jane says it's an outdoor concert with Big Head Todd and the Monsters. Outdoor? I don't think so. But in case there's also an inside party, we may head down there just before midnight. Bill and Hillary will both be there.

More...

Greetings from Des Moines! Wherever you are tonight -- whatever you're doing -- we wish you a happy and healthy new year.

Something to be joyful about: By this time next year, we will have elected a new President. The 8 year reign of George W. Bush will finally be over. While we will be cleaning up his mess for years to come, at least the worst is be behind us.

Happy New Year everyone!

I'll be back later for one more post - the Des Moines Register Poll. And I do not know if Jeralyn will be posting the rest of the day.

But in the meantime, Happy New Year to all, on behalf of all of us here.

And speaking for me only, GO GATORS! Destroy Michigan tomorrow!!

Via Taylor Marsh (also Newsday), Obama said:

"I don't want to go into the next election starting off with half the country already not wanting to vote for Democrats, we've done that in 2004, 2000." - Barack Obama

Whatever you say Senator Obama. I guess Edwards is the choice:

Hillary Clinton 48 FAV, 50 UNFAV
Barack Obama 43 FAV, 51 UNFAV
John Edwards 49 FAV, 42 UNFAV

Time to end the "electability" arguments Senator Kumbaya.

I am watching C-Span and the candidate speaking is my new favorite. I vote for repealing the 22nd Amendment. Yep. I am watching Bill Clinton. Still the best pol I have ever seen.

The Des Moines Register's final poll comes out tonight at 9:00 CST. It will shake the Earth, maybe.

Consider this an Open Thread.

Now we see why the Obama campaign conference call seems to reek of desperation. A new Iowa poll:

Clinton 30 (24)
Edwards 29 (26)

Obama 22 (27)

Uh oh.

The bar is set. For Obama to "win" Iowa, he has to win. His campaign predicts a win in Iowa:

Democrat Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters this morning that Obama is positioned to win the Iowa Caucuses. "We think we're going to enter caucus night with enough supporters identified to win even under the most aggressive scenarios," Plouffe said.

Alrighty then Axelrod and Co. No spinning a loss into a win now on January 3. The Clinton and Edwards campaigns played the usual "do well" platitude games.

So here is the Obama campaign, in the face of dropping poll numbers, confidently predicting victory. Bluster? Strategy? I dunno, but it will be hard to back off of this if they do NOT win.

Update [2007-12-31 14:51:31 by Big Tent Democrat]: More on the Obama campaign conference call below the fold. It may have come more to spin forthcoming bad poll numbers and to attack Edwards

Rassmussen Reports provides these favorable/unfavorabe numbers:

Hillary Clinton 48 FAV, 50 UNFAV
Barack Obama 43 FAV, 51 UNFAV
John Edwards 49 FAV, 42 UNFAV

How do you like "unity" now?

How do we know how the candidates are doing? We do not kow for sure really. But the best indicator imo will be the spin coming out of the diffferent camps.

If Obama starts downplaying expectations and talking about New Hampshire, then you will know his campaign has stalled in Iowa. He eeds to win the Hillary Alternative race and beating down expectations of an Edwards victory is the best way to get the waverers. But if he has concluded that winning Iowa is very unlikely he will have to switch tack. That is what I will be watching for the most.

Edwards has to win Iowa. I think that all their spin will be how they will win. No matter what the situation.

From the Clinton camp, what I would look for is if they start talking about winning Iowa. They have done all they can to damp down expectations. If they suddenly try to go back to "we are going to win" mode then that would mean they like their chances and are going for a knockout blow.

3 days to go.

Jane Hamsher of Firedoglake has already touched down in Iowa. I'll be joining her tomorrow morning. We will reprise our roles from the Scooter Libby trial and bring you latest from Des Moines and the Iowa caucuses. We've got our press credentials and reserved space with internet and electrical outlets (not cheap) at the Iowa Events Center (Polk County Convention Complex) where the "big board" will be posting live election night results after the caucuses end.

You can find our coverage at Firedoglake, here at TalkLeft and at Crooks and Liars.

If you'd like to contribute to our Iowa trip fund, you can help Jane here and me through the links below. Your support, as always, is greatly appreciated -- we couldn't do it without you.

The Bloomers (h/t Lambert) are restless and David Boren is making threats:

On Sunday, [Bloomberg] will join Democratic and Republican elder statesmen [read Grumpy Old White Men] at the University of Oklahoma in what the conveners are billing as an effort to pressure the major party candidates to renounce partisan gridlock. Former Senator David L. Boren of Oklahoma, who organized the session with former Senator Sam Nunn, a Democrat of Georgia, suggested in an interview that if the prospective major party nominees failed within two months to formally embrace bipartisanship and address the fundamental challenges facing the nation, “I would be among those who would urge Mr. Bloomberg to very seriously consider running for president as an independent.”

(Emphasis supplied.) To which I reply Bwahahahahahahaha!

Senility seems to be setting in with these Grumpy Old Men. They seem to think someone cares what they think.

Of course Bloomberg might run for President if his ego so demands. He has the billions. And he may be willing to embarrass himself so. It is up to him. Not the Bloomers.

This seems a very stupid thing to do:

Iowans have noticied that Democrat Hillary Clinton is not taking public questions from audiences during her final-push campaign rallies. . . . Clinton took no questions from audiences at any of her stops earlier Sunday, in Vinton, Traer and Cedar Falls.

Now I imagine the questions from the audience will be rather inane and stupid. Unlike many of you, I thought the YouTube debates were ridiculous. But just for the sake of image, taking a few questions seems a no brainer.

Update [2007-12-31 11:49:43 by Big Tent Democrat]: Apparently, neither is Obama:

The New York senator took heat last week for not inviting voters to ask questions, even though Obama hasn't answered questions at his last eight events.