This is an interesting development, not because I think it means Clinton is going to win, I don't, but because it is an interesting aboutface in spin tactics:

** Hillary Clinton's team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show, and says that, according to the turnout model the campaign is employing, Clinton will finish a strong first on the strength of turnout from Democrats. Two days ago, Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, told me that the Obama turnout model assumed about 150-155,000 people too. Clearly, the more independents who turn out, the better for Obama. The more Democrats -- the more new Democrats -- the better for Hillary Clinton. An Edwards aide said the campaign predicts that 135-140,000 Dems will caucus.

Why spin up? My guess? They felt they were being hurt by trying to lower expectations. For the record, each campaign is projecting a record turnout, 122,000 caucused in 2004.

Apparently Dick Bennett of ARG does not buy into the record Independent turnout the DMR Gold Standard Poll does. Clinton With a 9 Point Lead:

Clinton 34
Obama 25
Edwards 21

(12/31-1/02)

ARG predicts that only 17% of caucusgoers will be non-Democrats. 83% Democrats - with Clinton beating Obama and Edwards by 38-21 among Dems (DMR has Clinton winning among Dems by 33-27). ARG has Obama winning among the 17% of non-Democrats by 45-21. In 2004, Independents made up 19% and Republicans 1% of caucusgoers.

Someone will be a genius tonight - Ann Seltzer of DMR or Dick Bennett of ARG. John Zogby remains a charlatan no matter what the result is.

I do not pay enough attention to the GOP race in Iowa. I have already discussed the DMR Poll's prediction that Independents will make up 40% of Democratic caucus goers, up over 100% from 2004's 19%. But I neglected to notice what the Des Moines Register reports today:

Meanwhile, the Register's poll showed independents at 20 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers, up from 13 percent in late November.

So Independents are also flocking to the Republican caucus in record numbers? Sort of makes all of this baffling. But this is what the DMR Poll is saying. That between the DMR November Poll in November and it's New Year's Eve poll, Independents decided to caucus increase their participation in BOTH caucuses by over 100% in the Dem caucus and by over 50% in the GOP caucus as well. They flocked to both parties.

If this was not the DMR Poll, I would be beyond skeptical of this finding. So are we expecting a record breaking total at the GOP Caucus? Apparently not:

State GOP officials say publicly they hope participation exceeds the 2000 turnout of 86,000, while some campaign strategists are suspecting it will be lower.

But the DMR Poll expects recordbreaking Independent participation in the GOP Caucus. This is all very strange frankly.

Zogby completes his book cooking and now has Obama firmly in the lead. It is not that I do not believe it is so. In fact I do. but like Zogby's cooking of his books, it is based on the DMR Poll.

Unlike DMR, Zogby releases no internals about his poll. So much easier to cook them that way. But leaving that aside, the key question the DMR Poll presents is this - will Independents and Republicans will turn out in unprecedented numbers for an Iowa Caucus (DMR predicts that 40 percent of Dem caucusgoers will be Indys, in 2004, when there was NO GOP Caucus, it was 19%, and 5% will be Republicans, in 2004 it was 1%). If turnout is similar to 2004, the DMR Poll would predict a Clinton victory.

So there you have it. Obama will make history and Iowans will vote in unprecedented fashion is the Gold Standard prediction. I'll accept it. So what does it mean? First things first. NOW Obama MUST WIN Iowa tonight. Not finish second to anyone. A loss will be crushing for him. Edwards always had to win. Inadvertently, I think Clinton has won the expectations game. She is expected to lose. And a loss will hurt of course. Indeed, I think a loss to an Obama win costs her the nomination. But if Edwards wins and of course, if she wins, I think she secures the nomination.

And about what's next? Well, New Hampshire is a state where Independents can vote in any primary, Dem or GOP. The Media will be interesting here. They LOOOVE McCain. If they pump Obama hard, they will be killing McCain's chances as it will drive NH Independents to Obama and away from McCain. That will be the end of the Media Darling candidate of all time. Something to watch. New Hampshire is just 5 days away from today.

As for the GOP in Iowa, I think Romney wins tonight and in NH and sweeps to the GOP nomination. Then he becomes easy fodder for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, who becomes the first African American President of the United States.

Most of you probably aren't old enough to remember the movie Wild in the Streets, about a politician running for Congress on the platform "Never Trust Anyone Over 30."

The Hillary and Obama events today in Cedar Rapids and Coralville made me think of the film, because the caucuses are shaping up to be a battle between the middle-aged and geriatric vs. the young. And then, there's Edwards, whose support of the working person and the poor encompasses all age groups.

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Before I forget, the best restaurant meal I had in Des Moines was, hands down, no contest, Luca.

It's an Italian restaurant -- "warehouse district " style. The menu is on one small sheet, price fixed for appetizer and entree. They welcome idiosyncratic requests like "no sauce" and "can I have an appetizer portion of the entree as my appetizer along with my entree.) The food was fabulous, the service terrific and the ambience and the helpful, young waiter made me want to hang there for hours, except we had to get to the Edwards-Mellencamp event. As I said to Jane, Linda and the two Des Moines bloggers who had invited us there for dinner(it's at 420 Locust), "We're not in Kansas any more."

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John Edwards was the rock star tonight in Des Moines. Mellencamp did a great warm-up, Elizabeth did a worthy introduction, but Edwards owned the night. He had that fire in the belly, the kind of passion you just can't make up. The crowd knew it too.

I'll have video much later or in the morning. Right now the bar downstairs is packed and that's where I'm headed.

Update, 2:00 am Iowa Time: The bar was hopping. Bill Clinton was holding court in the lobby outside the bar with Susan Estrich holding his arm, trying to get him upstairs-- only at the same time he was engaged in a discussion with Fox News' Greta Van Susteran (who looked terrific) that ended with Clinton describing his cowboy boot collection. (More....)

The Unitary Executive theory, in vogue during the Bush administration, holds that all executive branch employees serve a president who has unilateral authority to direct their actions, to overrule their decisions, and to fire their butts when they refuse to do the president's bidding. An investigation of an executive agency by another executive agency in a Unitary Executive branch amounts to the president investigating himself.

Patrick Fitzgerald acted with integrity in prosecuting Scooter Libby. He should be the model for John Durham, a federal prosecutor in Connecticut who, according to Attorney General Mukasey, will lead an outside criminal investigation into the CIA's destruction of interrogation tapes. Durham has relevant experience: he oversaw an outside investigation of the FBI’s mishandling of mob informants in Boston.

The announcement is the first sign that investigators believe C.I.A. officers, possibly along with other government officials, may have committed criminal acts in their handling of the tapes, which depicted the interrogations in 2002 of two Al Qaeda operatives and were destroyed in 2005.

Durham's investigation will be conducted in grand jury rooms and in private interviews. Congress needs to conduct its own investigation (without immunizing witnesses who might be appropriate targets of prosecution) into the administration's knowledge or involvement.

In a very eloquent and well written defense of Senator Barack Obama and his political style (the central POLITICAL issue of this campaign imo), MYDD diarist Shaun Appleby makes the sincere case for Obama's political style, as opposed to Mark Schmitt's defense of Obama's political style as schtick. But Appleby miunderstands the key question in my opinion. He writes:

It could be argued readily that Obama is a potent progressive, and that his strategy for his own candidacy is his prerogative, as long as the end result advances progressive ideology significantly. But he is critiqued for his strategy as well as his positions . . .

(Emphasis supplied.) The reason he is critiqued for his strategy is precisely because those of us who do so believe "the end result does [NOT] advance progressive ideology significantly." This is perhaps the most frustrating thing about discussing these issues with Obama supporters. They seem incapable of understanding that we do not criticize Obama's political style on aesthetic grounds; we criticize his style because we think it will not work to actually EFFECT CHANGE. We believe that despite his being touted as the change candidate, his political style is the one LEAST likely to achieve progressive policy change.

We could of course, be wrong. Let's discuss whether we are or not. But please, respectfully, address the critique, not the strawman.

The Saga of Susan Klopfer. Clinton precinct captain loudly switched to Obama. Now switching to Edwards, erm, Richardson. Wait no, Edwards?

Oh please. Susan Klopfer, your 15 minutes are over already.

One last night for the candidates to make their case.

Hillary will be on Letterman tonight. She taped it in Cedar Rapids. She then went to her Des Moines campaign office to give a pep talk to staffers.

John Edwards made 11 stops today and is finishing with a big event in Des Moines with John Mellencamp -- that's where Jane and I will be.

The media has taken over this town. Sean Hannity's crew is at the bar/restaurant next door to our hotel -- he'll be broadcasting H&C from there. The Fox News people are staying at our hotel, as are the Clintons. Shep Smith got in last night. He told me Greta is here too, but I haven't seen her yet. Makes sense though.

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Jeralyn is still traveling the plains so I figure I'll start an Iowa predictions thread.

Here's mine. I'll accept the Iowa Gold Standard poll's order of finish.

Obama by 3 over Hillary 3 ahead of Edwards.

Biden 4th.
Richardson 5th.
Dodd 6th.
Gravel and Kucinich last.

The spin? A HUGE win for Obama and he rolls on to the nomination.

Your turn.

Update (Jeralyn): From the plains (and they look like plains to me) -- I think Hillary comes in first and Edwards second.

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