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Did Obama Build It? Will The Non-Dems Come? Who Decides Iowa

If the gold standard Des Moines Register poll is right, then a Barack Obama Field of Dreams depends on non-Democrats deciding who should win the Iowa Democratic caucus.

That is a fact, no matter how much Obama supporters do not like to hear it. The rules allow for this so that is that.

Clinton leads among registered Democrats who are likely caucus goers by 6 points in the DMR poll, 33-27. And if the turnout demographic is the same as in 2004, Clinton wins by 31-29. (This explains the discrepancy between the DMR poll and other polls, who are now scramblng to align themselves with the DMR turnout model.)

So it comes down to that - will the non-Dems come to decide the Iowa Democratic caucus. That is the question for tomorrow night. If they do, Obama wins. If they do not, he does not. The Ultimate Test for the Kumbaya Schtick.

I leave you with Jeralyn until tomorrow.

< Zogby Poll | Iowa: Off to Cedar Rapids and Coralville >
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  • Display: Sort:
    "Non-Dems," heh (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by dutchfox on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 09:15:15 AM EST
    As we read in the NYT today, a lot of working class Iowan voters will not be able to participate in the caucuses:

    By Jodi Kantor New York Times 2 January 2008 -
    Caucuses Bring Power Only to Some in Iowa

    DES MOINES -- Jason Huffman has lived in Iowa his whole life. Lately he has been watching presidential debates on the Internet, discussing what he sees with friends and relatives. But when fellow Iowans choose among presidential candidates on Thursday night, he will not be able to vote, because he is serving with the National Guard in western Afghanistan.

    "Shouldn't we at least have as much influence in this as any other citizen?" Captain Huffman wrote in an e-mail interview.

    He is far from the only Iowan who will not be able to participate. Because the caucuses, held in the early evening, do not allow absentee voting, they tend to leave out nearly entire categories of voters: the infirm, soldiers on active duty, medical personnel who cannot leave their patients, parents who do not have baby sitters, restaurant employees on the dinner shift, and many others who work in retail, at gas stations and in other jobs that require evening duty.

    As in years past, voters must present themselves in person, at a specified hour, and stay for as long as two. And if these caucuses are anything like prior ones, only a tiny percentage of Iowans will participate. In 2000, the last year in which both parties held caucuses, 59,000 Democrats and 87,000 Republicans voted, in a state with 2.9 million people. In 2004, when the Republicans did not caucus, 124,000 people turned out for the Democratic caucuses.

    The rules are so demanding that even Ray Hoffman, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party and a resident of Sioux City, cannot caucus on Thursday night, because he has to be in Des Moines on party business.

    Iowans begin the presidential selection process, making choices among the candidates that can heavily influence how the race unfolds. Now some are starting to ask why the first, crucial step in that process is also one that discourages so many people, especially working-class people, from participating.



    This should be a prominant part (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 09:31:32 AM EST
    of coverage of the Iowa caucuses.  Glad to see the NYT is addressing the issue; maybe the NYT will remember to discount the results also.

    Parent
    The Democratic Party brand... (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by oldpro on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 04:32:34 PM EST
    Very disturbing to consider that my party's standard-bearer could be chosen by those without the guts, brains or commitment to choose a party and work for it.  There's something wrong with people who only want to be Democrats for 2 hours.

    In my state (also a caucus state) we know these people well.  They show up every four years to spit in the face of people who show up every goddam day working for change.  They do no homework and pay no dues but want to belong to the club...in fact, they want to run it -- not unlike those folks who want to live in this country and collect all its benefits but never want to pay any taxes.

    Yep (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:07:11 PM EST
    Maybe there is something wrong (none / 0) (#21)
    by ontheground on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:10:02 PM EST
    with the 2 party system that excludes a large number of people.  I myself am a diehard liberal Democrat that has been a declared independant since 1992.  I didn't like Clinton and didn't vote for him.  I'm convinced independants are such because of extremism in the party, partisanship or dislike of the system. Democrats especially I think suffer from this because they represent a wider segment of the population to some degree than Repubs do.

    Parent
    Excludes? (none / 0) (#22)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:36:47 PM EST
    How so?

    Seems to me they choose to NOT be Democrats or Republicans.

    I do not understand your comment.  

    Parent

    Obama's attractiveness to non-Dem. (none / 0) (#3)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 09:45:07 AM EST
    Iowans is suspicious.  Might the non-Dems have decided he will be easier to defeat in the general election than Hillary Clinton?  This is what happened in CA's open primary.  

    Stop spinning (none / 0) (#12)
    by Jgarza on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 03:37:20 PM EST
    you will make your self sick.

    Parent
    They'll be badly surprised (none / 0) (#13)
    by koshembos on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 03:48:14 PM EST
    Seeing so many Democrats misjudging Obama for quite a long time, it wont be a big surprise if the Republican may be misjudging Obama too.

    This guy is a world class charlatan, he campaigns like Rove and will probably usher the Republicans into a world of pain. The drawback is that Obama is actually a Republican with a Democratic facade.

    Parent

    New Catch Phrase (none / 0) (#4)
    by Jgarza on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 09:47:05 AM EST
    Can the DMR poll get a new catch phrase "Gold Standard,"  So is there a Platinum Standard poll?
    Maybe it could be the most trusted name in polls?
    Or Fair and Balanced, ohh wait we have to reserve fair and balanced for zogby, i think.

    Can't get James Earl Jones's voice (none / 0) (#5)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:09:14 AM EST
    out of my head.  Coincidence?  I think not.

    As he disappeared into the cornfield? (none / 0) (#16)
    by oldpro on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 04:18:42 PM EST
    Let's remember...it was a fable...

    Parent
    Tell that to BTD. (none / 0) (#20)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 05:51:48 PM EST
    over simplified? (none / 0) (#6)
    by Jgarza on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:17:19 AM EST
    Clinton leads among registered Democrats who are likely caucus goers by 6 points in the DMR poll, 33-27. And if the turnout demographic is the same as in 2004, Clinton wins by 31-29. (This explains the discrepancy between the DMR poll and other polls, who are now scramblng to align themselves with the DMR turnout model.)

    So it comes down to that - will the non-Dems come to decide the Iowa Democratic caucus.

    I mean forget about things like margins of error, or how when you are talking about 2 points things like GOTV and second choices can make the difference.  If Obama or Hillary win, we wont need actual voter data, based on BTDs expert nonpollster reading of polls, and amature calculations we will know exactly what happened!


    They'll Come (none / 0) (#7)
    by BDB on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:20:26 AM EST
    But so will Dems, IMO.  So the question is whether the Non-Dems come in large enough number as compared to Dems.  If I knew that, I wouldn't need to watch the returns tomorrow.  The other question is whether the coverage of the DMR results helps move people toward Obama.  Is the poll self-reinforcing?

    The answers to these questions and many more tomorrow night!

    The Kumbaya Schtick? (none / 0) (#8)
    by Sulawesi on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 12:43:37 PM EST
    Are you not the slightest bit embarrassed to write that? Given that Obama is going to have to overcome no small bit of institutionalized racism to with the election, it is incredibly insensitive for you to make the cynical accusation that Obama is using his race in a manipulative way. I found that offensive!

    Lots of white guys sang Kumbayah (none / 0) (#9)
    by MarkL on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:01:45 PM EST
    in church camp as a kid. It doesn't have a racial overtone to me.

    Parent
    The song is not racist...but.. (none / 0) (#10)
    by Sulawesi on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:14:35 PM EST
    It is an old African American Spiritual, but to assert that Obama is playing up some "Kumbaya Schtick"...that suggest he has some race angle going...

    Parent
    Well, I think it's pretty all-American (none / 0) (#11)
    by MarkL on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:19:33 PM EST
    these days, but BTD is the one who should be answering this, if he wants.

    Parent
    Wikipedia (none / 0) (#17)
    by Wile ECoyote on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 04:27:15 PM EST
    (also spelled Kum Ba Yah) is a song claimed to have been composed by Reverend Marvin V. Frey (1918-1992) in the 1930s in Portland, Oregon.

    But I guess it depends on who edited that page of wiki.

    Parent

    Well, read on in the same Wiki... (none / 0) (#23)
    by Sulawesi on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:11:27 PM EST
    "...sometime between 1922 and 1931, members of an organization called the Society for the Preservation of Spirituals collected a song from the South Carolina coast. Come By Yuh, as they called it, was sung in Gullah, the Creole dialect spoken by the former slaves living on the Sea Islands of South Carolina and Georgia. ... The song enjoyed newfound popularity during the folk revival of the 1960s, largely due to Joan Baez's 1962 recording of the song, and became associated with the Civil Rights Movement of that decade."

    Parent
    Read on the same Wiki (none / 0) (#27)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:36:34 AM EST
    In October of 2007, Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), announced his new offensive strategy to distinguish policy difference between himself and his opponent and Democratic frontrunner, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY). In his announcement he stated that the notion that Clinton and himself were "holding hands and singing `Kumbaya'" on every issue was completely false.

    How dare Obama say that? What a racist!

    So now we realize this is all a joke, right?

    Parent

    He was responding specifically to Edwards... (none / 0) (#29)
    by Sulawesi on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:49:53 AM EST
    Edwards used the term first and took flak from the African American community about it. Was Obama being calculating? Perhaps. Was he digging at Edwards? Perhaps. But the notion that nobody else has responded the way I have about this is simply false. With that background, I think it is offensive to continue using it as a derogatory epithet for Obama...I will leave, that is fine...

    Parent
    If you are offended (none / 0) (#30)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:01:11 AM EST
    I am sorry for that.

    I think your offense is misplaced.

    I will not refrain from using the word in reference to Obama, who clearly was NOT offended by the word.

    Parent

    Um (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 04:13:28 PM EST
    I know of NO Afiranc Amrericans who say Kum baya WHATEVER its origin.

    NOT embarrassed in the least.

    Parent

    Now (none / 0) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 04:14:50 PM EST
    Foght the Power and No, Justice, No peace I have heard a lot from African Americans, not Obama though.

    Parent
    Now, by reading above, you know (none / 0) (#24)
    by Sulawesi on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 10:22:57 PM EST
    that the song has its roots as a spiritual during slavery and was later associated, via Joan Baez, with the civil rights movement.

    I know it is not common in the parlance of many African Americans, so what exactly were you trying to say with the notion that Obama has a "Kumbaya Schtick"?  

    Parent

    So what? (none / 0) (#25)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 07:31:45 AM EST
    A lot of things has roots that are long forgotten.

    I know of NO African Americnas, NONE who say Kumbaya.

    Are you denying that?

    Parent

    I am done with this.

    your point is NOt accepted by me.

    Have a nice day.

    Parent

    OK fine, your blog, do your thing... (none / 0) (#28)
    by Sulawesi on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 08:41:32 AM EST
    I realize the term is used loosely, and Obama himself has used it, but I also dispute the notion that I am the only one out there who sees racial overtones in it.  Since you all seem to be so "in tune" with the African American community,  you might or might not be interested in what some of them have to say about this.

    http://democratic-afrosphere.blogspot.com/2007/09/john-edwards-calls-obama-kumbaya.html
    http://democratic-afrosphere.blogspot.com/2007/09/for-immediate-release-afrospear.html

    Right up front, they talk specifically about being ignored by the likes of you. Good Day

    Parent

    I do not agree with that post (none / 0) (#31)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 09:02:37 AM EST
    Respectfully.

    Parent
    Who is barack obama? (none / 0) (#32)
    by beachdude on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:34:59 AM EST
           
    Who is barack obama?

    Who is Barack Obama? You've got to read this.

     Now a U. S. Presidential candidate, Barack
    Hussein Obama was born in Honolulu , Hawaii ,

     To Barack Hussein Obama, Sr., a black MUSLIM from
    Nyangoma-Kogel, Kenya and Ann Dunham, a white
    ATHIEST from Wichita , Kansas .

     Obama's parents met at the University of
    Hawaii .
    When Obama was two years old, his parents divorced.
    His father returned to Kenya His mother then
    Married Lolo Soetoro, a RADICAL Muslim from
    Indonesia.

     When Obama was 6 years old, the family relocated to
    Indonesia . Obama attended a MUSLIM school in Jakarta

    He also spent two years in a Catholic school.

    Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he
    Is a Muslim. He is quick to point out that, "He was once

    A Muslim, but that he also attended Catholic school."

     Obama's political handlers are attempting to make
    It appear that Obama's introduction to Islam came

     Via his father, and that this influence was
    Temporary at best. In reality, the senior Obama
    Returned to Kenya soon after the
    Divorce,

    And never again had any direct influence
    Over his son's education.

     Lolo Soetoro, the second husband of Obama's mother,
    Ann Dunham, introduced his stepson to Islam.

     Obama was enrolled in a Wahabi school in Jakarta.

     Wahabism is the RADICAL teaching that is followed
    By the Muslim terrorists who re now waging Jihad

    Against the western world.

     Since it is politically expedient to be a CHRISTIAN
    When seeking major public office in the United States ,

    Barack Hussein Obama has joined the United

     Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his

     Muslim background.

     Let us all remain alert concerning
    Obama's
    Presidential candidacy.

    The Muslims have said they plan on destroying the
    US from the inside out. What better way to start

    Than at the highest level---through the President

     Of the United States, one of their own!!!!

     ALSO, keep in mind that when he was sworn into
    His current office - he DID NOT use the
    Holy Bible, but instead the Kuran (Their equivalent
    To our Bible, but very different beliefs)

    Would you want this man leading our country?......

    Reads like really bad poetry. (none / 0) (#33)
    by oculus on Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:39:47 AM EST