By Big Tent Democrat

There is something incredibly galling about all the new harrumphing from these august figures about what ABC did in Wednesday's debate. The galling part is not the protest of the ABC Debate, which was a travesty. The galling part was the shameful and inexcusable silence from these same figures when it was NBC performing the travesties. Shame on the signatories to that letter, not for signing that letter, but for not signing one about NBC earlier. You have no credibility to complain now. None.

It is obvious that each and every one of those signatories do not give a fig about good journalism. The only thing they care about is St. Barack Obama and not blowing their chances to be on Countdown. This is Boehlert's Revenge:

By Big Tent Democrat

If Chris Bowers is right about this:

In summary, Michigan and Florida will be seated, and there is only one delegation from each state for the credentials committee to consider. Not only is the Obama campaign not proposing different delegate slates, but they are actively working to make certain of the above delegate slates. Given all this, you tell me--what will the Michigan and Florida delegations look like at the convention?

We can sit around and debate whether or not this result is fair or acceptable all day. Hell, we have already been doing just that for three months now. However, this is not an abstract argument anymore. Michigan and Florida will be seated, and their delegations are taking shape as you read this. If the Obama campaign plans to dispute these delegations at the credentials committee, then it should say so and offer up a counter delegations. It has done neither. Until that changes, I am assuming pro-Clinton delegations of 73-55 from Michigan, and 105-67-13 from Florida.

Then never mind about all my dire predictions. But if Bowers is right, why doesn't Obama say so? The good will he would reap would be tremendous. I'll tell you why, cuz it is not true. That's why.

By Big Tent Democrat

A great favor has been done for those who seem not to realize that the not all polls are equal. The key to polling is the likely voter model. But polling method is also important. An Indiana university poll that used SUSA to do its fieldwork with a poll it designed came out, with a strikingly different result than SUSA did with its own poll. Thus while SUSA has Clinton up 16. The alternate Indiana poll has Obama up 5. How could it happen? Turnout models. Polling methods. Definitions of the relevant universe. Etc.

SUSA explains:

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

If Obama wins the Pennsylvania primary, the race for the Democratic nomination will end. And if you believe Rasmussen, Zogby, LATimes and PPP, he has a great chance of doing that. These four polls have Obama down 3, 4, 5 and up 3 respectively.

Personally, I have no confidence in those polls, and will continue to trust SUSA, which has Clinton with a 14 point lead. But make no mistake, if Obama wins PA, it is over. And then perhaps, the Clinton hate will stop. It is imperative for Obama's chances that it stop. Obama's worst enemies now are his own rabid fans.

The new Gallup poll, taken after Wednesday's Philadelphia debate, has Hillary Clinton tightening Obama's lead. She moves to within 3 points of him.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 15-17, with Thursday night's interviewing the first conducted following the April 16 debate in Philadelphia. The initial indications are that Obama may have been hurt by the debate, which was noted for its negative tone and focus on the candidates' recent "gaffes" and Obama's associations with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers (a former member of the radical Weather Underground group).

In Thursday night's interviewing, Clinton received a greater share of national Democratic support than Obama, the first time she has done so in an individual night's interviewing since April 3. That stronger showing for Clinton helped to snap Obama's streak of statistically significant leads in the three-day rolling averages Gallup reports each day. Until today, he had led Clinton by a statistically significant margin in each of the prior 11 Gallup releases.

As to McCain and the Democrats: [More...]

Cynthia Sommer spent the last 2 years and 4 months in jail. She was convicted in 2007 of murdering her Marine husband by poisoning him with arsenic.

She left jail today after new tests showed there was no arsenic. The prosecution moved to dismiss all charges against her.

Her defense lawyers point out:

“No one should say that this system worked,” he said. “This dismissal wasn't because of the prosecution's efforts; it was done because the defense demanded it.”

Lots of work for me today, which means an open thread for you. What's on your mind?

You pick the topics, I'll be back eventually.

(Update:Comments now closed. You all made me hungry, I'm going to the grocery store and will be back in a few hours. Also, for those of you who like to put urls in your comments, check out the comment below about tinyurls where you can make them short enough they won't skew the site and get your comment deleted.

CBS has a new poll on Pennsylvania college students. The predictable results: they favor Obama. (full results here, pdf.)

Oh but I was so much older then,
I'm younger than that now

Looking at Pennsylvania's demographics and current voter registration statistics (available here in Excel), 10% of PA's voters are in the 18 to 24 age group. 38% are over 55.

I'm not sure how many of those are college students. I suspect there are plenty of registered young voters who are not attending college.

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Jonathan Singer writes:

Reading Jerome's post this afternoon, I must respectfully, though strongly, disagree with the sentiment he passes along from Big Tent Democrat that Obama supporters' "hatred of Bill and Hillary Clinton has become more important to them than Obama's chances of winning in November."

. . . I wouldn't use the words of a Daily Kos commenter Markos points to, namely that the commenter no longer considers Hillary Clinton a Democrat . . .

Respectfully, Singer just did agree with me. Those are the words that I found objectionable. Singer continues:

Intentional or not?

Update: I've watched it twice and I think he was just scratching his face. I don't think he meant anything by it. I also don't think he's dumb. Especially when he talks about how the cameras are on them 24/7.

Update: Comments now closed.

Hillary Clinton will be on the Stephen Colbert show tonight. Michelle Obama was on earlier this week.

If you watch it, let us know what you think.

Update: I just got an e-mail from the Colbert Report. John Edwards and Barack Obama will also make appearances on the show. Edwards will be in person and Obama will appear by satellite.

Why does Barack Obama keep using the term "mentally deranged" when discussing guns?

Mentally deranged does not equal mentally ill (or mentally challenged). Use of this term unfairly stigmatizes those suffering from mental illness.

Mental illnesses are treatable conditions that can be lived with and beaten and negative portrayals of mental illnesses only make it harder for those who are sick to get the help they need and to be taken seriously.

More here.