Post Debate Poll: Hillary Gains

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:13:31 PM EST
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, 2008 (all tags)

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The new Gallup poll, taken after Wednesday's Philadelphia debate, has Hillary Clinton tightening Obama's lead. She moves to within 3 points of him.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 15-17, with Thursday night's interviewing the first conducted following the April 16 debate in Philadelphia. The initial indications are that Obama may have been hurt by the debate, which was noted for its negative tone and focus on the candidates' recent "gaffes" and Obama's associations with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers (a former member of the radical Weather Underground group).

In Thursday night's interviewing, Clinton received a greater share of national Democratic support than Obama, the first time she has done so in an individual night's interviewing since April 3. That stronger showing for Clinton helped to snap Obama's streak of statistically significant leads in the three-day rolling averages Gallup reports each day. Until today, he had led Clinton by a statistically significant margin in each of the prior 11 Gallup releases.

As to McCain and the Democrats: [More...]

There has been slight movement in the general election trial heats, with Obama's margin over Republican John McCain dropping by a point and Clinton's margin increasing by a point. In the latest polling on the general election, based on April 13-17 interviewing, registered voters prefer Obama to McCain by 45% to 44% and Clinton to McCain by 46% to 44%.

(Hat tip to Diplomatic)

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Post Debate Poll: Hillary Gains | 21 comments (21 topical)

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I believe the evidence is mixed (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by mbuchel on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:19:06 PM EST

As Rasmussen has PA closing to HRC +3 post debate. Let's not cherry pick...

: True signs are mixed (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by Marvin42 on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:24:41 PM EST

I am trying not to cherry pick, but I want to see SUSA. Then I'll know one way or another.

As I have previously stated (5.00 / 0) (#2)
by Kathy on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:22:29 PM EST

I only believe the polls that are positive for my candidate, so this is the most exact and best poll to date!

Go, Hillary, go!

: I agree... (5.00 / 3) (#5)
by Stellaaa on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:26:33 PM EST

He cannot blow her out of the water even with all the screaming memes out there doing his work for him.

It's more the complaining than the debate (5.00 / 4) (#13)
by DaveOinSF on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:35:33 PM EST

All the whining about the debate has been worse for Obama than the debate itself. If he'd just sucked it up and dealt with it, it wouldn't have been as big a deal.

BTD (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by americanincanada on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:35:59 PM EST

Can you do a post on the new Down's Center poll of Indiana that uses SUSA for field work but a different turnout model?

People are all over claiming it was a SUSA poll but it was conducted one day after SUSa's last poll and shows Obama leading by 5%.

LINK2

: I did (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:56:23 PM EST

i can't figure out (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by Turkana on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:37:44 PM EST

the downs center/susa on rcp. obama up in indiana? and what's the difference between this poll and the straight susa that had hillary up 9? ah, the wonders of polling...

: Different sample selection methodology (5.00 / 1) (#30)
by Democratic Cat on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:51:54 PM EST

I believe one used a sample from voter rolls and the other used random digit dialing.
So, the poll results are likely not comparable, but I haven't thought about which is more likely to be accurate.

MSM drives me nuts!!! (5.00 / 0) (#54)
by ruffian on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 03:33:35 PM EST

The initial indications are that Obama may have been hurt by the debate, which was noted for its negative tone and focus on the candidates' recent "gaffes" and Obama's associations.....

Who noted the debate for its negative tone? Why, the MSM of course! Does this poll have data that the main take-away for voters was the negative tone? Maybe voters noted that Clinton has a much better grasp of the issues, can explain herself coherently, and would be a better president. No, that is not even mentioned as a possiblity

Stella LOL (none / 0) (#7)
by smott on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 02:29:11 PM EST

!!!!

Newsweek Poll (none / 0) (#56)
by lyzurgyk on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 03:39:26 PM EST

TPM is headlining a Newsweek poll that shows Hillary down 20.

Frankly I'm about to call it a race. Olberman, Marshall, Kos and the rest of the creative classers are simply not going to allow or accept a Clinton nomination. I believe the Obama backers would take their ball and go home in November rather than back Hillary.

About time to accept the inevitable. I sure hope they made the right decision in propping up Obama.

Seems That Everyone Is Concerned That Obama (5.00 / 1) (#58)
by MO Blue on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 03:49:52 PM EST

supporters will take their ball and go home. Hate to tell you this but that game can be played by either side. If recent polls are to be believed, there are Clinton supporters who won't vote for Obama if he is the nominee.


One of the points (none / 0) (#60)
by misspeach2008 on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 04:15:44 PM EST

that is missed is that many of Clinton's supporters say that they will actually vote for John McCain. Since so many of the Obama supporters will be first time voters, it's arguably more likely that they will just stay home. Not that I think that the Super D's should base their decisions on threats of mass defection, but I think that Obama and his supporters are too dismissive of the votes of the "old biddies". We're not even listening to the cries about what will happen to the Supreme Court since Obama clarified his position on abortion rights (not), and suggesting that Obama's putting a different woman in the VP slot would placate us is insulting.


According to that same poll you implicitly (none / 0) (#63)
by ahazydelirium on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 05:00:02 PM EST

mentioned, his supporters (18%) are as willing to vote for McCain.

Let's play honestly.


IIRC 23% Of Clinton's Supporters Will Vote For (none / 0) (#64)
by MO Blue on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 05:19:09 PM EST

McCain if Obama is the nominee.

Wasn't anything dishonest about my comment but I guess accusations about someone with a different POV are always necessary when defending Obama. Seems to be the SOP.


: Actually, I'm avidly for Hillary. (none / 0) (#65)
by ahazydelirium on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 06:15:00 PM EST

But the comment I responded to sounded as though it should have been a negative that Hillary's supporters were willing to "jump ship." I just wanted to clarify that Obama's supporters were perfectly willing to do likewise.
My apologizes for misunderstanding!

Who Put Them In Charge? (5.00 / 1) (#59)
by flashman on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 03:52:24 PM EST

KOS, Olberman??? I didn't know we had a ruling class. Personally, I don't accept it being 'over.' It's only the 7th inning of a 10 inning game.


: The Wisdom of Solomon (5.00 / 1) (#62)
by lyzurgyk on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 04:25:12 PM EST

A real Democrat won't kill the baby. I have no faith in the Obamacrats.

ANOTHER call to get out just as she's about to win (none / 0) (#57)
by Truth Partisan on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 03:46:06 PM EST

PA?
What's the plan here--fear? WHY do you think Hillary supporters should give up right before big wins as some urged BEFORE OH and TX?


: Reality (none / 0) (#61)
by lyzurgyk on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 04:19:40 PM EST

She's going to have to win out plus convince the superdelegates.
If Hillary can't win PA by double digits after the bitter gaffe, she might as well get out. Accept the facts on the ground.
But I'll be pulling her lever on Tuesday and keeping my fingers crossed.