Here is an Xcel spreadsheet from the PA Secretary of State showing the final tally of registered voters for the primary.

Highlights: 4.2 million voters are registered to vote in the Democratic primary. Of those, 800,000 are in Philadelphia. 567,000 are in Allegheney (Pittsburgh.) The next biggest seem to be Delaware with 157,000, Bucks County with 185,000 and Montgomery with 248,000.

By age, 401,000 (10%)are 18 to 25; 655,000 are 25 to 34; 709,000 are 35 to 44.

58% of registered Dems are over 45. 20% of registered Dems, are in the 45 to 54 age group. And 38% are over 55.

As for new voter applications, they surged for the periods of March 24 and March 31, but dropped dramatically after that until voter registration closed April 22. In Philadelphia, 23,000 new voters registered during those weeks -- statewide almost 100,000 registered.

About 100,000 voters changed party registrations during the three weeks of March 17, March 24 and March 31.

Any number crunchers out there want to weigh in on what these numbers might mean for tomorrow's primary?

Update: County Map is below the fold

By Big Tent Democrat

The SUSA's internals.

Whites make up 81% of the vote, A-As 14% of the vote. But SUSA has Obama making real inroads into the white vote. It now is a 22 point spread (previously a 30 point spread), 58-36. The A-A vote is, predictably, 87-11 Obama.

Here's the deal, if the white vote breaks 62-38 (assuming a 4-2 break among the white undecided for Clinton), she wins by about 8 or 9, assuming a split among "other voters." If it is less or more than that, it will be almost a one to one percentage change in the result. Almost all undecided voters in the SUSA poll are now white voters.

By Big Tent Democrat

I am with Kevin Drum on the Obama campaign's overwrought reaction to the latest Clinton ad:

Are the pro-Obama forces seriously trying to get their troops outraged over this latest ad from Hillary Clinton? Just because it contains a ten-second sequence of presidential crises (Depression, Pearl Harbor, gas crisis, Katrina, etc.) and flashes a half-second clip of Osama bin Laden as part of it? Spare me. Are Democratic political ads no longer even allowed to mention the fact that the next president is going to have to deal with the war on terror?

The reaction is overwrought and I think politically obtuse. It makes it seem like Obama really is afraid to discuss the war on terror and we know he not only is not, but it is one of his strongest arguments - that we need to fight the war on terror not the Debacle in Iraq. Strange reaction from the Obama camp and his supporters.

Update (TL): The ad is below:

By Big Tent Democrat

NOTE - The big news from the call was the categorical denial of the Drudge Report post that Clinton internal polling has Clinton up 11. There is no such polling says Garin. Indeed, he implies there is no recent internal Clinton polling at all, citing "frugality."

I will live blog the Clinton Conference Call starting now. They will discuss their closing ad. Garin and Wolfson on. Garin discusses the ad. Says the ad is about issues. (I have not seen the ad.) More . . .

By Big Tent Democrat

The usually solid Greg Sargent fumbles his post on Bloomberg's shoddy article on the popular vote count. Sargent uncritically regurgitates Bloomberg's recitation of the popular vote count. What both Bloomberg and Sargent failed to do was discuss the issues of Florida and Michigan. As the RCP popular vote counter demonstrates, the 800,000 vote lead that Bloomberg assumes excludes the Florida and Michigan votes. It has been clear for some time that the Clinton popular vote argument includes counting Florida (Clinton won by 300,000 votes there) at the least, and Michigan as well.

The Bloomberg article is a very poor one and Sargent should have known this. Bad show Greg.

By Big Tent Democrat

The differentials in the polls are pretty easy to decipher. Take PPP. It has Obama up 3 in PA. And how it gets there is clear. It has low white turnout (76% of the total), high A-A turnout (18% of the total) and Obama only losing the white vote by 14, 52-38 (it has the by now standard 8-1 A-A win for Obama.)

The Q Poll, which has Clinton up 7, has White voters backing Sen. Clinton 57-38 percent (with A-A going for Obama 84-10). By my calculation, Q has a more convention turnout model, somewhere around 81% of the vote will be whites and A-A around 15%.

There are two factors now, the turnout of whites and A-As, and how close can Obama run with whites. Demography is political destiny in this race. NOTE - The final Ras poll has Clinton up 5, up 2 from its last poll, and demography is key again:

By Big Tent Democrat

Here is an interesting development; Hillary Clinton will appear on the Obama News Network's Countdown program with Obama's O'Reilly, Keith Olbermann.

What approach should Clinton have in that appearance do you think? My view is she should come in prepared to discuss only issues. Presumably, Olbermann will have the guts to say to Clinton's face the awful things he has said in his broadcasts. IF and when he does, I think she should go aggressively against him. Be prepared to critique him and his network's atrocious journalistic performance. Picking a fight with the Media, especially NBC, on the eve of the PA election would be smart imo.

By Big Tent Democrat

The new World's Greatest Pollster now has Obama closing fast in PA, cutting a 14 point deficit to 6. The SUSA poll shows a 50-44 result (previously it was 54-40.)

Details to follow when available but this is what has been offered - "The poll . . . concluded that women will carry Clinton to victory, despite a surge for Obama in the southeast portion of the state." We need to see the cross tabs to understand this better. More . . .

(103 comments, 317 words in story) There's More :: Permalink :: Comments