For those of you offline during the weekend and now back at work and surfing around, here's some of what you missed on TalkLeft (we have more than 30 posts up for Saturday and Sunday -- these are a sampling of mine):

• Hillary Responds to Obama Saying McCain Would Be Better Than Bush
• Electability: Why Hillary is More Likely to Beat McCain
• Hillary Asserts She's More Electable Than McCain
• Bob Casey: Obama Would Probably Find DC Handgun Ban Constitutional
• Bill Clinton Explains Falsities in Obama's Latest Ad
• The Candidate for Change Goes AWOL in Message Today

And since I've got to get back to work in the real world, this is an Open Thread.

You'll see a lot of articles touting Barack Obama's raising of $42 million in March. While a huge number, it's still $13 million less than he raised in February.

His expenditures in March: $30.5 million. He spent $9 million on media advertising and $5 million in telemarketing. And, notwithstanding the massive expenditures, he lost the popular vote in both the Ohio and Texas primaries.

Hillary Clinton is behind in fundraising but still in the game. She raised $20 million in March. All but $5 million came from online donors.

At the beginning of April, Hillary had $8 million to spend on the primaries to Obama's $41 million.

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

I erroneously cited a SurveyUSA PA poll as the most recent poll. It was NOT the SUSA final PA poll. It was an old poll. I regret the error.

This is an Open Thread.

Open Thread bonus - GOP pollster Strategic Vision has it 48-41 Clinton in PA.

Bump and Update: Hillary responds to Obama (audio here with audience joining in):

"Sen. Obama said today that John McCain would be better for the country than George Bush. Now, Sen. McCain is a real American patriot who has served our country with distinction, but Sen. McCain would follow the same failed policies that have been so wrong for our country the last seven years.

"Sen. McCain thinks it is okay to keep our troops in Iraq for the next 100 years. Is that better than George Bush?

"Sen. McCain will continue the failed economic policies of George Bush that have brought us deficit and increasing debt. Is that better than George Bush?

"Sen. McCain does not have a health care plan that will cover every American. In fact, we will have more and more uninsured Americans. Is that better than George Bush?

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By Big Tent Democrat

The worst pollsters, ARG and Zogby (PDF), have new PA numbers. ARG has Clinton by 13, 54-41 (down from a 20 point lead) and Zogby has Clinton up 6, 48-42 (up from a 3 point lead). Watch Zogby hedge his bet:

“A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%.

Sure, Zogby, whatever you say. ARG's internals make sense to me:

By Big Tent Democrat

We have certainly had our differences this campaign season, but this is a great post by Oliver Willis.

Alton Logan's mother and grandmother both died during his 26 years in prison. He had the chance to visit their graves this weekend, after his release from a sentence for a murder that was likely committed by someone else.

Two attorneys for a convicted cop killer had known for 26 years of Logan's innocence but had kept silent because of the attorney-client privilege. Their client, Andrew Wilson, had confessed to them that he shotgunned a security guard to death in January 1982, but he insisted they only reveal his admission after his death. Wilson, who was serving a life sentence for the murders of two Chicago police officers, died in prison of natural causes Nov. 19.

On Friday, a judge listened to the testimony of a former employee of the McDonald's where the security guard was killed. The employee identified a picture of Wilson as the killer. A witness who tutored Wilson in prison testified that Wilson once told him about shooting a gun in a McDonald's. Prosecutors insist that Logan is guilty, but Judge James Schreier ruled that the new evidence made it reasonably probable that Logan would be acquitted if he were tried again. He freed Logan on $1,000 bail.

Obama is airing an ad attacking Hillary's health care plan. Hillary now fires back. Here's the support for the statements in her ad.

I do think the ad takes it one negative too far. Rather than say:

He couldn't answer tough questions in the debate. So Barack Obama is making false charges against Hillary's health care plan.

I think she should have just opened with:

Barack Obama is making false charges against Hillary's health care plan.

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Earlier I wrote why I think Hillary Clinton is more electable. Here's what Hillary said today in Pennsylvania:

Clinton also said there was no "contradiction" from her previous position when she told last week's ABC News debate audience that she thought Obama was electable after weeks in which her main case to the superdelegates who could decide the nomination was that Obama could not win a general election fight against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

"Yes, yes, yes," Clinton said during the debate last week at the National Constitution Center on Independence Mall.

Today, she said, "He can be elected. I WILL be elected." "There is a difference," the New York senator said. "Look at the electoral map: I've carried states that a Democrat must have to win. Anything is possible, but I am more likely" to gain the White House against McCain.

McCain's strategy now is to go after the toss-up states, particularly in the west and southwest. [More...]

Bump and Update: The AP reports superdelegates are not feeling bound by primary results, but more concerned about electability. And the International Herald Tribune says McCain's new strategy is to go after the toss-up states.

***

There's no question that superdelegates will consider electability as a factor in deciding whether to vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Based on this analysis by long-time Democratic party activist William Arnone, which I return to again and again for the numbers, here's what I think they need to look at:

• Who can best hold on to the 20 states the Dems won in 2004? Which candidate is more likely to put these states at risk in a battle with John McCain?

• Which candidate has the better chance of winning states that voted Republican in 2004 but are now seen as vulnerable for McCain?

• Which candidate has a better chance of getting the votes of four key constituencies that could carry the election for McCain?

Answers below: [More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

I think well of Nico Pitney, but this post is a bad show from him. Nico argues that the ABC Debate was unlike any other. But how does he do this? He only looks at the last four debates (2 by CNN, one by NBC and the ABC Debate.) From this analysis, Pitney argues that ABC was unlike any other. But Pitney's cherry picking reveals the problem:

Policy Non-Policy Scandal

CNN (1/31) 31 3 1
CNN (2/21) 23 5 2
NBC 24 17 5
ABC 32 14 13

Even with this cherry picking, Pitney's own data proves the point - NBC in its post SNL debate in Cleveland, when it would have been on its best behavior, had 22 non-policy questions. (Pitney's "scandal" designation seems rather convenient to me.) Moreover, Pitney ignores the 20 odd debates PRIOR to January 31, 2008 and PRIOR to the SNL debate skit. He particularly ignores the infamous October 30, 2007 NBC Debate. By doing that, Pitney makes his analysis a mockery. He is better than this disingenuous post. More . . .