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Tuesday :: April 22, 2008

Obama Leaves Pennsylvania, Heads to Indiana

Barack Obama isn't sticking around Pennsylvania to get the results. He's headed to a rally in Indiana.

John Mellecamp will perform at the Obama rally, but CNN says he's not endorsing Obama and will perform at a rally for both candidates in a few weeks.

Hillary is staying in Pennsylvania tonight and will hold a rally at a hotel in Philadelphia.

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Tonight's Media Coverage of the Pennsylvania Primary

Polls close in Pennsylvania in 80 minutes. The cable news networks have begun their evening media coverage. We'll have several threads going, but here's one to post your comments about the media coverage of the results. We'll close each thread when comments reach 200.

Who's the biggest Horses As*? Who did you like?

What networks are you watching? I'm watching whichever has an anchor talking. As soon as they go to pundits, I change the channel.

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Pennsylvania Exit Polls: Thread Three

CBS has posted its exit polling from Pennsylvania.

  • Most decided before this week
  • The economy was the dominant issue by 2 to 1 over Iraq (54% to 28%).Only 14% chose health care.
  • Change was more important to voters than experience by 49% to 26%.
  • 54% said campaign ads that aired in the past week was important.

CNN exit polling: (via TV)

  • 37% said they have a gun. 58% of them voted for Hillary
  • 39% attend church weekly. 59% voted for Clinton.

So, according to CNN, Obama didn't carry the gun or religious voters.

CNN also says there are a lot of first time voters among those newly registered. Wolf Blitzer says this is a big deal.

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More Exit Polls : Thread Two

Turnout numbers - 80% White, 14% A-A.

Key exit poll findings from ABC:

Preliminary results indicate that nearly six in 10 voters are women, which if it holds in final data will be a high for Pennsylvania, though about what it's been in all Democratic primaries this year. Turnout among African-Americans could be lower than it's been overall this year; it'll take updates later tonight to see whether it does or does not exceed the Pennsylvania primary record, 17 percent in 1988 and 1984.

We know Drudge said 52-48, but here is a reminder that early exit polls have not been great, and the early exits have been pretty favorable to Obama for whatever reason. Brendan Loy reminds:

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What's Considered a Win for Hillary in Pennsylvania?

What's a win for Hillary in PA today? For me, it's:

  • winning the popular vote by any margin
  • winning among rural, older, Catholic and women voters.
  • Coming in second only or primarily among African American and younger voters.

The goalpost of PA in my view is neither the pledged delegate count nor a huge total vote margin. It's showing the superdelegates that Hillary has the better (if not only) chance of taking big states like PA, Ohio and Florida in the general election. [More...]

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Exit Polls: Thread One

I will be posting any exit polls we get in this post. Right now I got nuthin. Here is a new Open Thread.

Drudge says 52-48 Clinton.

Waiting for Fox to give its exits. Developing . .

Also watching Tweety. He does not look happy. My Tweety Exit Poll tells me that Hillary probably beat expectations.

AP exit polls

VOTERS' DEMOGRAPHICS ... As expected, the Pennsylvania Democratic electorate was overwhelmingly white, while a little more than half of voters were women. About three in 10 were age 65 or over. A quarter had household family income of more than $100,000 last year and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.

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PA Predictions Open Thread

Ok, what do you folks think? Me, I am a believer in SUSA so, assigning undecideds, I go Clinton 54-46. How about you?

This is an Open thread.

I like Mark Halperin today. This is a fair assessment I think.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed.

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The Obama Expectations Game

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Mark Halperin, here is the Obama expectations spin:

The Bar for Clinton in Pennsylvania. With all eyes on today’s contest, one thing is clear: Pennsylvania is considered a state tailor-made for Hillary Clinton, and by rights she should win big. She has family roots in the state, she has the support of the Democratic establishment—including Governor Rendell’s extensive network—and former President Clinton is fondly remembered.

What you would expect. More interesting is the ongoing contest spin:

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Midday: Wolfson Interview With Brian Williams

NBC's Brian Williams just interviewed Clinton campaign Communications Director Howard Wolfson on MSNBC(noon ET.) Here's a recap:

Williams: Would a loss today end the race? A loss would be very bad indeed and that's why Obama is spending so much trying to knock us out. We feel good about today, even though he's outspent us 3:1, now its up to the voters.

On the polls: Williams: Young people don't have land lines. There's a chance Hillary will overskew in the polls. Is that a concern? Wolfson: I've learned not to believe too much in polls. Mentions New Hampshire. We don't know what's going to happen, that's the beauty of democracy.

More...

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DNC Stonewalling FL and MI

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Marc Ambinder, the DNC sems intent on losing Florida and Michgian in November:

Sen. Bill Nelson and Rep. Alcee Hastings, both of Florida, are accusing the DNC of slow-walking several appeals to the party's rules and bylaws committee. Those appeals, if successful, could reinstate Florida's superdelegates or even part of its regular convention delegation. In a letter sent to the chairs of the rules and bylaws committee today, Hastings and Nelson say that the DNC staff is keeping secret its recommendation about the validity of those appeals. They imply that the DNC is trying to drag the process into June, so no action is taken until after the regular primary period ends.

. . . The letter suggests that Hastings and Nelson want the press to focus on two themes: (a) the idea that the DNC is trying to "solve" the Florida problem with the kind of back-room deal that DNC chairman Howard Dean promised to avoid. (b) that the RBC risks its legitimacy if it fails to litigate the matter quickly and publicly.

The DNC has proven to be the gang that can't shoot straight. The incompetence is stunning.

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Umbrella Of Deterrence Part II

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

In some ways, reactions like this one to Hillary Clinton's "umbrella of deterrence" proposal explains why some Dems shiver in fear at any mention of national security issues in an election. Matt Stoller writes (see also Matt Yglesias' flip flop, he did not object to this proposal BEFORE it became a Hillary proposal; CDS strikes againYglesias clarifies that he is not objecting to the proposal but to Wolfson's bizarre denial; fair point; see also Noam Scheiber ("Her answers on the policy questions were pretty lucid and authoritative--particularly on the Middle East "nuclear umbrella" idea, which sounds a little crazy when you first hear about it, but which she convinced me was an anti-proliferation proposal."):

A massive new security commitment in this volatile region is just insane. And the belligerent rhetoric - 'totally obliterate them' - what the hell? It's like 7th graders with nuclear weapons. I'm having a harder and harder time seeing the difference between McCain and Clinton. Perhaps Clinton will be more saddened than McCain's gleefully militarism as she launches an attack on Iraq [sic], but that's just tone.

Perhaps Stoller's comment just reflects ignorance or perhaps something more, but to equate a proposal that would actually obviate the possibility of a preemptive attack against an Iran that acquires nuclear weapons with John McCain's neocon view that the U.S. must take military action PRIOR to Iran's gaining nuclear weapons has the concept upside down.

Let me quote again from Harvard Middle East Studies article I discussed earlier:

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Most Harmful Democrat: Donna Brazile

By Big Tent Democrat

One of the biggest problems in the DNC remains the horrible Donna Brazile. Look at this divisive rhetoric:

There's a group around [Sen. Clinton] that really wants to take the fight to the convention. They don't care about the party. It scares me, and that's what scares a lot of superdelegates.

What a harmful figure Donna Brazile is to the Democratic Party. Apparently she cares not at all about unifying the Democratic Party. She should resign from the DNC immediately.

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