Exit Polls: Thread One

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:32:00 PM EST
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I will be posting any exit polls we get in this post. Right now I got nuthin. Here is a new Open Thread.

Drudge says 52-48 Clinton.

Waiting for Fox to give its exits. Developing . .

Also watching Tweety. He does not look happy. My Tweety Exit Poll tells me that Hillary probably beat expectations.

AP exit polls

VOTERS' DEMOGRAPHICS ... As expected, the Pennsylvania Democratic electorate was overwhelmingly white, while a little more than half of voters were women. About three in 10 were age 65 or over. A quarter had household family income of more than $100,000 last year and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.

Fox says Clinton is winning whites. Duh.

Gun owners 58% Clinton, 42% Obama.

Obama wins college educated 54-46.

CNN Exit polls

African American voters in PA 92% for Obama

Seniors: 61% for Clinton (72% in Ohio, btw)

White men: Clinton 55% Obama 45%

NRO says early exit polls have Obama winning 52-47. I guess it is possible but the 55-45 white men result seems to me to make that not likely. Why? Because Clinton is likely to win white women by at least 30, thus winning whites by more than 20. In such a scenario, it is virtually impossible for Obama to win PA.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed.

< PA Predictions Open Thread | What's Considered a Win for Hillary in Pennsylvania? >

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Exit Polls: Thread One | 216 comments (216 topical)

Unless something dramatic shows up (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:36:12 PM EST

I think exit polls will be less-than-useless tonight.

They don't know what the demographics will look like, and demographics will determine the outcome.

can't folks just sit outside (5.00 / 11) (#10)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:37:35 PM EST

and count who gets in the Lexus and who gets in the pick-up truck, and extrapolate from there?

[ Parent ]

LOL... (5.00 / 5) (#15)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:39:36 PM EST

but you might be a bit off. The Lexus is the Jewish Mercedes, you know. I believe HRC does a bit better among my people. ;-)

[ Parent ]

Lexus hybrid? (5.00 / 2) (#18)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:42:27 PM EST

BMW girl here myself--with a huge honkin' Hillary bumper sticker on back.

[ Parent ]

Well, my dad prefers HRC... (5.00 / 2) (#20)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:45:08 PM EST

and drives a Toyota hybrid.

My stepmom, AA & Jewish, drives a big Lexus SUV. Huuuuge Obama supporter.

Me confused! ;-)

[ Parent ]

I'm sorry (5.00 / 4) (#24)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:46:30 PM EST

you defy the demographics. We cannot accept the votes of anyone from your family. Except, of course, your dad.

[ Parent ]

And myself of course! (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:48:04 PM EST

Got it! :-)

[ Parent ]

You just admitted to driving a BMW (5.00 / 2) (#28)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:50:31 PM EST

Does that mean we have to throw out your vote too?

Me, I take the T cuz I can't afford a car...
or gas...
or parking...

And I'm part of the "creative class"

[ Parent ]

The 'real' "creative class"? (5.00 / 3) (#61)
by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:07:02 PM EST

or the newly manufactured one? ;)

Whatever happened to "starving artist"?

[ Parent ]

No (5.00 / 2) (#74)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:10:36 PM EST

I'm actually an "over-educated" engineer from Boston. I just happen to have a boat-load of debt. It's sad actually, I'm educated, have a good job, and I still live at home with mom and dad. The sadder part of that, so do my older sisters.

[ Parent ]

So you COULD (5.00 / 1) (#130)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:23:32 PM EST

say you still fit nicely into Clinton demographs.

I like it. :)

[ Parent ]

except I voted for Obama (5.00 / 1) (#132)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:24:43 PM EST

Sorry :)

[ Parent ]

: Hey we won't hold it against you (5.00 / 1) (#148)
by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:29:26 PM EST

As long as you vote for Hillary if the day comes... ;)

[ Parent ]

Isn't the Boston area $$$$? (5.00 / 1) (#154)
by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:32:37 PM EST

I have a degree and can also make good money. Sadly, I always find myself living in the most expensive places (SF, LA, NYC) so good money takes on a different life ;)

Oh, and a working Creative Professional. I want my high-jacked 'class' back!!! It's NOT for political net-nerds, says me. :)

[ Parent ]

feh! (none / 0) (#197)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:50:11 PM EST

I never believed in starving, and I can one up you on the agent--I've got an entertainment lawyer.

I am the height of the creative class!

[ Parent ]

15-year-old Jeep Grand Cherokee (5.00 / 4) (#57)
by gyrfalcon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:05:01 PM EST

here, the national car of rural Vermont, with a Stewart/Colbert 2008 bumper sticker.

[ Parent ]

Heh (5.00 / 2) (#72)
by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:09:50 PM EST

The Volvo is sitting outside all shiny and pretty, in beautiful, if old, condition. She is a peppy little car and looks great in the driveway of our house in our fancy neighborhood. (we rent, lol) It's all smoke and mirrors.

The Hillary sticker is on the minivan...

[ Parent ]

Where do I fit? (5.00 / 1) (#86)
by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:14:17 PM EST

Highly educated female from the Midwest driving a good old American car - A Chevy Trailblazer (wait! That's a gas guzzling SUV too!)

[ Parent ]

How about Mini Cooper drivers? (5.00 / 2) (#123)
by otherlisa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:21:55 PM EST

And I am a gen-u-ine Creative Class person...I think. I work at a film studio and have a literary agent.

Can I still be a HRC supporter?

[ Parent ]

hyper-educated cat lover (none / 0) (#192)
by jpete on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:48:12 PM EST

with another classic Brit car, a silver jag.

I'm also a woman who was in grad classes with Bill. And I am really angry about the mysogyny surrounding HRC. Plan to vote for Obama if he is the candidate, but I don't have confidence in him

[ Parent ]

: OI no! (none / 0) (#199)
by jpete on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:54:49 PM EST

Sorry for the repeat! It's the iPhone's fault! Truly.

[ Parent ]

hyper-educated cat lover (none / 0) (#195)
by jpete on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:49:24 PM EST

with another classic Brit car, a silver jag.

Mine is a Jeep wrangler '89 (5.00 / 1) (#120)
by felizarte on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:21:14 PM EST

bought in '88 so it is twenty years old. And I am betting that Hillary gets it by +14

[ Parent ]

29-year old Jeep wrangler (none / 0) (#187)
by felizarte on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:45:18 PM EST

and I do not know what category I fit in as a translator of the bible from English to an obscure language in a pacific island.

[ Parent ]

Here in Canada (5.00 / 1) (#79)
by hopeyfix on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:12:16 PM EST

Me and my partner (Honda drivers, 2 degrees each, from NY, just to add to the car/education chat here :)) got some Rolling Rock and hope to toast it tonight to a 10 point win. Latrobe style celebration.

[ Parent ]

: Woo hoo! Demos be darned! (5.00 / 1) (#100)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:16:31 PM EST

I only drive rental cars now. Sold the car (a zippy Mazda 3, great gas mileage) and moved back to NYC.
I'm renting a hybrid for my next trip. ;-)

[ Parent ]

Ten-year-old Subaru Impreza wagon (none / 0) (#194)
by echinopsia on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:48:34 PM EST

Official lesbian car, I'm told.

But I'm only an honorary lesbian. And I have this Hillary sticker on the back window (subtle, understated, I can see it in the rearview).

[ Parent ]

We drive a BMW too (5.00 / 2) (#49)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:02:37 PM EST

and support Hillary -- but then, we are also "high information" voters with advanced degrees. A pollster's nightmare.

[ Parent ]

: LOL (5.00 / 1) (#160)
by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:33:44 PM EST

High-info here too...Ivy League, IT work. VOlvo S80 in the driveway. HRC all the way.

[ Parent ]
: I drive a mercedes (5.00 / 1) (#182)
by suskin on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:41:50 PM EST

And my two die hard Hillary supporting friends do also. All "high information" voters with advanced degrees. But my husband drives a Ford if that helps - course he's a successful MBA type.

[ Parent ]

Are you worried (none / 0) (#119)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:21:09 PM EST

it will be keyed?

[ Parent ]

ouch (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:41:40 PM EST

A lot of college kids and old ladies take the bus / walk. Why not just offer beer/wine at the polls, whoever takes wine - Obama, beer - Hillary, and I think we know where the under-age crowd stands.

[ Parent ]

could give the kids drinks first... (5.00 / 4) (#21)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:45:26 PM EST

then put a sticker on them so they think they've already voted...

[ Parent ]

How very (none / 0) (#31)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:52:57 PM EST

Chicago-style politics of you! Have you been taking lessons from Axelrod and Obama?

[ Parent ]

: If I were running, I'd have Kathy on stafffro (5.00 / 1) (#89)
by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:14:52 PM EST

for many reasons, among them an unending supply of snark. But "mean girls" win, too. :-)

[ Parent ]

Hilarious.... (none / 0) (#126)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:22:31 PM EST

We had a huge problem in LA County, since the new voters didn't poke the proper holes to indicate their party, which initially meant their vote did not count. :)

I just had to chuckle.

[ Parent ]

What if I take both (none / 0) (#30)
by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:51:37 PM EST

We are a both household. I should probably go for Hillary, Obama hangs out with people who think that those who like both are sinners and can be reformed.

[ Parent ]

: I'll take both with a shot of whiskey (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:53:44 PM EST

But I don't have any problems... I swear...
The younger voter crowd is definitely not reformed.

[ Parent ]

Arrgh. More people who don't understand (5.00 / 2) (#62)
by scribe on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:07:09 PM EST

Pennsylvania.

You know you're from Pennsylvania if:

you went to high school with a couple guys who could rebuild any car made, better than new, with the stuff in their garage;
your local mechanic could win at "Junkyard Wars" without breaking a sweat.

Lexuses.... pfft.

[ Parent ]

: I'm from Pgh (none / 0) (#167)
by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:36:02 PM EST

...and my first car was a 71 Chevy Impala with a 350 small block. Worked on it myself. Of course I had to sit inside the engine compartment on the radiator just to change the plugs!
Oh, I'm a chick!
The Impala's now a Volvo...and no I don't change the plugs anymore! :-D

[ Parent ]

I drive a Ford Ranger (none / 0) (#145)
by AF on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:29:04 PM EST

Well, actually, it's my wife's. We're both Obama supporters.

[ Parent ]

Reporting: Exit poll of one (5.00 / 7) (#5)
by annabelly on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:36:24 PM EST

I voted for Hillary today in Indiana. We have open voting and I finally got off my rump and went down today. I cast my vote today for the first viable female candidate for President. I believe Elizabeth Cady Stanton would be proud.

Good for you! (5.00 / 4) (#9)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:37:28 PM EST

Early voting is such a cool idea.

Mail-in paper ballots would be even better, IMHO.

[ Parent ]

Yeah (none / 0) (#50)
by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:03:03 PM EST

so some smart aleck college kid who knows better just says "Here Grandma - let me fill out your ballot for you!"

[ Parent ]

Don't underestimate Grandma! (5.00 / 1) (#58)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:05:46 PM EST

My mother-in-law is 81 and she'd have no trouble filling out a paper ballot. :-)

[ Parent ]

Funny Thing (none / 0) (#59)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:05:56 PM EST

A friend of mine accidently took his dad's vote,
(they have the same name), because he forgot he didn't register. I could've voted for 5 different people if I knew their names and where they lived. No system is perfect...

[ Parent ]

No... (none / 0) (#122)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:21:37 PM EST

but talk to anyone from Oregon, and they'll tell you how happy they are with their mail-in voting system.

I'll take it over paperless e-voting machines owned by Republicans any day.

[ Parent ]

: I wasn't referring to mail-in (none / 0) (#131)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:23:36 PM EST

This is where people actually have to show up to vote. That's the sad part.

[ Parent ]

Congratulations you are now part of history a good (none / 0) (#41)
by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:58:01 PM EST

part.

[ Parent ]

Hee! (5.00 / 2) (#6)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:36:42 PM EST

Thank goodness for TalkLeft. The anticipation, it burrrrrnnnnnssss!

Lanny Davis: Howard Dean should resign (5.00 / 6) (#7)
by catfish on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:36:47 PM EST

Apparently Lanny Davis says Dean helped Obama nix the NC debate. If true, Davis says Dean should resign.

Is that even possible? (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:38:15 PM EST

I can't believe HoDo would do that. That is such a conflict of interest...

[ Parent ]

Dean this morning... (5.00 / 8) (#16)
by Marco21 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:40:49 PM EST

on MSNBC said whoever wins in the fall will bring "hope and change."

I sh*t you not.

Way to stay neutral, Howie.

[ Parent ]

: AAAAAAACK! (5.00 / 3) (#19)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:43:39 PM EST

He's in the tank, all right.
How very, very sad.
He should indeed resign. His job is to stay neutral and make sure the elections are run properly. He should strongly support both nominees until the convention.

[ Parent ]
: I don't want Jim Jones (5.00 / 1) (#172)
by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:38:01 PM EST

heading the DNC, thanks.

[ Parent ]

I wish I had... (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by Marco21 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:59:18 PM EST

video or a transcript, but it was after Morning Joe during the regular AM broadcast. Joe stayed on later because of election day. There's nothing with dean on their page, it seems.

I heard it though. Indeed.

[ Parent ]

You don't believe it? (5.00 / 2) (#53)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:04:06 PM EST

Dean has been in the tank for Obama for ages. The only one worse, as far as the DNC goes, is Brazile.

[ Parent ]

Yes but (5.00 / 2) (#67)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:08:22 PM EST

at least he had Brazile and The Rulz to hide behind with the FL/MI mess.

Now he's actually costing the state party $300,000 so that Obama can hide behind his skirts.

Looks like that 50-state strategy is down to 47.

[ Parent ]

why dean is for Obama (5.00 / 2) (#88)
by p lukasiak on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:14:36 PM EST

Its all about jumpstarting Dean's 50 State Strategy -- Obama has developed a lot of strong state/local grassroots efforts in states where the Democratic party is extremely weak. Were Obama to win in November, suddenly the distinction between "The President" and "The Party" disappears -- and all the Obama networks would wind up being incorporated into the state/local party organizations.

The 50 State Strategy is a long term good idea that gets a lot of resistance from the DC democratic establishment because it takes power/money out of their hands. But supporting Obama because you're tired of dealing with the whining of Congressional democrats that they aren't getting enough support from the DNC is going to tear the party apart.

[ Parent ]

: Its more than that, the race is to nominate a (5.00 / 1) (#139)
by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:26:42 PM EST

Candidate who can win in Nov, we didn't spend tens of millions on Hillary candidacy to build Dean's dream, I sure as hell did not, I'm not even a Dem.

[ Parent ]

Brangelina, Filliam H Muffman, meet Deana Brazile (5.00 / 2) (#98)
by Ellie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:16:25 PM EST

I knew Dean was leaning hard but this is indefensible. Talking up Obama, rather than just getting out the vote, via the airwaves is appalling.

[ Parent ]

I am really pleased the Campaign has had enough of (5.00 / 6) (#13)
by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:39:26 PM EST

with the Dean Brazile show at the DNC and are calling them on their antics.

[ Parent ]

NC certainly seems like a backroom deal (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:45:59 PM EST

http://www.charlotte.com/109/story/590356.html

Did Obama ever officially agree to debate?
He did suggest a debate date - April 19, beginning of Passover - which was immediately rejected. Duh!

[ Parent ]

Not great. (5.00 / 6) (#39)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:56:28 PM EST

Thousands had already requested tickets for the proposed Raleigh debate through the Democratic Party's Web site. Democratic chairman Jerry Meek said last week that a debate could help the party raise as much as $300,000 through individual sponsorships of pre- and post-debate receptions.
The party had publicly lobbied Obama to accept the April 27 date, organizing a letter-writing campaign with Gov. Mike Easley, former Gov. Jim Hunt and state legislative leaders.

They begged him to accept the date and he didn't. It could have helped the State Democratic Party to the tune of $300,000, and he wouldn't do it.

Yet he'll win the state by double digits, most likely.

Unbe-freaking-lievable.

[ Parent ]

: Never understimate (5.00 / 5) (#46)
by cawaltz on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:00:57 PM EST

a Democrat's ability to make a winning proposition, a losing one. Sigh.

[ Parent ]

OMG (5.00 / 9) (#40)
by Edgar08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:58:00 PM EST

Obama supporters chanting "no more debates".

Well it's nice to see they have a signature issue now.

Seriously though, this idea that you should keep Obama pure and untested until the General Election is one of the more moronic things I've seen come out of the party in a long time.

Get everything out now while it can all get digested by the American Public before it gets framed by Republicans in the General Election.

[ Parent ]

: Leave Obama aloooooone! (5.00 / 8) (#45)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:00:47 PM EST

You're lucky he comes out to eat waffles with you!
[sniff sob]

[ Parent ]
: chanting "no more debates"?! (5.00 / 3) (#75)
by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:10:40 PM EST

WTF?! Seriously?
If so, how FREAKIN' obvious can they be?!

[ Parent ]

Mind you (5.00 / 5) (#63)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:07:19 PM EST

the NC Dem website says that the debate was cancelled

"due to time constraints and logistical issues associated with such a large, national event.
You have shown tremendous passion and interest in being a part of history as Democrats are poised this year to elect the first female or African-American President. However, there were also growing concerns about what another debate would do to party unity."

Yes, they cancelled the debate to save party unity. {{bangs head against wall}}

[ Parent ]

I know... (5.00 / 4) (#69)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:09:14 PM EST

I commented on that yesterday. Ridiculous!

[stands beside litigatormom, bangs head on wall with her]

[ Parent ]

Debate is Conflict! Oh no! (5.00 / 1) (#82)
by catfish on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:13:51 PM EST

Exchange of conflicting ideas is conflict nonetheless!

I call it a pathology of Generation Soft.

[ Parent ]

Maybe (none / 0) (#92)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:15:10 PM EST

"I call it a pathology of Generation Soft."

But don't forget how we got that way...
Thanks mom and dad!

[ Parent ]

: They did their best ;-) (5.00 / 1) (#108)
by catfish on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:18:46 PM EST

we just had it too good for too long.
It's just time to course-correct.

[ Parent ]

We'll all be united (5.00 / 2) (#156)
by cawaltz on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:32:46 PM EST

when we run ourselves right over the cliff with the candidate that they have chosen for us. It makes me ill that they are "protecting" Obama from Hillary. What happens come GE time when he is up against McCain and they don't have party unity as his excuse not to debate? Or does the "creative class" expect this to be a coronation? Someone needs to remind them that in the head to heads Obama ain't a sure thing. He needs this practice time.

[ Parent ]

what another debate (5.00 / 2) (#170)
by isaac on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:37:04 PM EST

would do to the unity pony

[ Parent ]

My personal opinion (5.00 / 2) (#103)
by barba on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:17:11 PM EST

is that BO nixed it himself. I would love to know however, the person's name who put the statement out yesterday about "party unity" being a reason the debate was nixed. Especially since our governor, Mike Easley wrote a letter to BO 04/15/08 urging him to debate here. I would so love to find out if the person who put that statement out for the Dem. Party in NC is 1) a superdelegate, 2) has already come out for BO. Pehaps some enterprising reporter will try to track it down (NOT LIKELY!)

[ Parent ]

Resignation (5.00 / 2) (#137)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:26:06 PM EST

won't happen, but it's good to see someone clamouring for it, anyway.

Dean has lost his brains. You cannot take such a side and play politics and expect to get away with it.

Ditto for Donna and Pelosi.

They are all abusing their positions. At this point, Kennedy is looking more respectable. At least he had the decency to play the politic card fair and square!

[ Parent ]

Do you have a link? (none / 0) (#12)
by annabelly on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:39:01 PM EST

I just googled the web and the news wires, nothing yet.

[ Parent ]

No link yet (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by catfish on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:39:27 PM EST

I'll look...

[ Parent ]

: It was on Fox Shep was the moderator I belive (5.00 / 2) (#25)
by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:47:18 PM EST

It was on Fox Shep was the moderator I believe, and its not just a matter of preference here Clinton supporters have contributor MILLIONS and not for a fixed Party building exercise ......................OH NO Brazile on CNN now oh according to Brazile the SD are flying off the handle LOONS I guess...

[ Parent ]

Always interesting to read Chris Matthews' (5.00 / 2) (#23)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:46:20 PM EST

mood as a clue to what poll results they aren't releasing publicly yet. If he is openly joyful and in a good mood it means a good night for Obama. If he is worried and stern if it a good night for Hillary. Unless he has used the last 6 weeks to practice his poker face.

Of course that assumes you can stand to watch MSNBC anymore, which I'm not sure I can.

I dunno (5.00 / 2) (#26)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:47:48 PM EST

Chris Matthews just likes anything that lets him talk more. So a Hillary win might be a good thing to him tonight.

[ Parent ]

its never good for him (none / 0) (#29)
by miguelito on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:51:00 PM EST

when she wins

[ Parent ]

: BTD says: (5.00 / 1) (#140)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:27:00 PM EST

My Tweety Exit Poll tells me that Hillary probably beat expectations.
Woo-hoo! Come on, 16%! :-)

[ Parent ]

But An Obmam Win (none / 0) (#34)
by flashman on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:53:48 PM EST

would send a tingle up his leg. :)

[ Parent ]

Does Obama reek of Old Spice and (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by cawaltz on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:58:40 PM EST

all things mamly too? I stopped watching Chris Matthews after he starting waxing poetic about Thompson's aftershave. Ewwwwwwwwwww.

[ Parent ]

Tweety was excited by (5.00 / 1) (#70)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:09:17 PM EST

the "mature manly scent" of English Leather, Aqua-Velva and cigar smoke that envelops Fred Thompson. Not clear whether this mature manly scent is more or less exciting than the Obama tingle that races up his leg....

[ Parent ]

Eeewwww (none / 0) (#96)
by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:15:51 PM EST

on so many levels!

: 0

[ Parent ]

For those of you unfamiliar with (5.00 / 1) (#150)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:30:13 PM EST

Tweety's obsession with Fred Thompson's bodily odors, here is a transcript from Tweety's discussion with Ana Marie Cox and Gene Robinson (among others):

Does [Fred Thompson] have sex appeal? I'm looking at this guy and I'm trying to find out the new order of things, and what works for women and what doesn't. Does this guy have some sort of thing going for him that I should notice? . . .
Gene, do you think there's a sex appeal for this guy, this sort of mature, older man, you know? He looks sort of seasoned and in charge of himself. What is this appeal? Because I keep star quality. You were throwing the word out, shining star, Ana Marie, before I checked you on it. . . .
Can you smell the English leather on this guy, the Aqua Velva, the sort of mature man's shaving cream, or whatever, you know, after he shaved? Do you smell that sort of -- a little bit of cigar smoke? You know, whatever.

The Horror. The Horror.

[ Parent ]

: In The Immortal Words of Buffy (5.00 / 2) (#173)
by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:38:15 PM EST

A world of ew.

[ Parent ]

You mean Chris (none / 0) (#44)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:59:26 PM EST

"Manly Smell Thrill Up My Leg" Matthews?

[ Parent ]

Hey Bloody Lance step sharp (none / 0) (#113)
by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:20:01 PM EST

The Bashi Bazooks are inside the cantonment. Overrun by Gilzais and Gahzis! arrrgghhhh quick hide! Watch out for the Jizailis! Quick hand the flag over to the hubshi buggers before they run us through.

[ Parent ]

I can't stand the sight of him (none / 0) (#35)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:54:21 PM EST

but it might be useful to have an online meter to determine the amount of tingling in leg.

[ Parent ]

Aha! (none / 0) (#81)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:13:22 PM EST

BTD says Chris does not look happy! This is going to be a fun night!!

[ Parent ]

Eh (5.00 / 1) (#102)
by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:17:07 PM EST

I remember how it ended when Chris looked happy.

Until the votes start to come in, the exit polls aren't waited and so none of these folks know anything.

[ Parent ]

I know, I'm grasping at anything (5.00 / 2) (#114)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:20:13 PM EST

that makes me feel good. If I'm disappointed later, at leeast I will have had a good couple of hours.

[ Parent ]

: My coworker (5.00 / 1) (#211)
by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:08:32 PM EST

An Obama supporter (but not a complete kool-aid drinker) has said that Chris Matthews has lately been being harsher on Obama and actually predicted Hillary by 14 - all since he maybe decided to run for Senate in PA - even calling Obama elitist (hi pot, meet kettle)

[ Parent ]

Zogby (5.00 / 2) (#142)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:27:44 PM EST

was just on a radio interview saying it will be a significant win for Hillary and will raise electability questions for Obama.

The Catholic white male vote who initially were reluctant to vote for Hillary are breaking huge for her now, and they are voting.

[ Parent ]

And Just Like That...Despair (5.00 / 2) (#152)
by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:31:45 PM EST

It's over for Hillary, Zogby proclaims her the winner.

[ Parent ]

: Even a stopped clock is right (5.00 / 1) (#180)
by cawaltz on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:40:37 PM EST

twice a day. ;) Don't despair. That said keep on the lookout for the moving of the goal posts.

[ Parent ]

EOG (Eye On Gambling) (5.00 / 1) (#32)
by KevinMc on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:53:29 PM EST

EOG has an early exit poll:

10 Point Win for Clinton in Early Exit Poll

EOG has already surveyed 1000 voters across Pennsylvania. 550 say they voted for Clinton, whereas 450 told us they voted for Obama.

Heh (5.00 / 3) (#36)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:54:44 PM EST

[ Parent ]

What an opinionated gambler (none / 0) (#48)
by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:01:12 PM EST

Classy too.

[ Parent ]

: The comment (5.00 / 2) (#55)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:04:27 PM EST

about HRC's gigantic *ss reminds me of how happy I am to be here.

[ Parent ]

wow, talk about meaningless (none / 0) (#106)
by p lukasiak on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:18:06 PM EST

raw numbers from exit polls are completely meaningless. You have to know which precincts they came from, etc, to have any idea what they really mean.

[ Parent ]

: I agree (none / 0) (#135)
by KevinMc on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:25:04 PM EST

I don't pay a lot of attention to exit polls. I just thought it was interesting a gambling site had already posted one. Everybody wants a piece of this election.

[ Parent ]

Are there old links that explain Exit Polls (5.00 / 1) (#51)
by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:03:04 PM EST

how they are compiled by whom, how the data is collected etc

: Here's an FAQ at pollster.com (5.00 / 2) (#129)
by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:23:19 PM EST

that I found useful.

[ Parent ]

new NC SUSA (5.00 / 0) (#56)
by grrchapelhill on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:04:48 PM EST

obama +9

NC SUSA (5.00 / 2) (#60)
by grrchapelhill on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:06:21 PM EST

obama 50 clinton 41

Wow (5.00 / 1) (#65)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:07:57 PM EST

that's not too bad for Hillary. She's within striking distance.

[ Parent ]

Wait for the crosstabs (none / 0) (#68)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:09:07 PM EST

I frankly think that an Obama blowout is preordained in NC.

[ Parent ]

The Only Way for Her to Avoid It (none / 0) (#111)
by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:19:29 PM EST

Is to crush him (like win 70%) of the white vote.
Possible, but unlikely.

[ Parent ]

We'll see what happens tonight. (none / 0) (#133)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:24:54 PM EST

I agree it would be tough, but not impossible, for her to pull out a close one in NC.

[ Parent ]

: If She Wins NC (5.00 / 1) (#157)
by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:33:00 PM EST

the race is over.
I don't think she will because she would have to win a ridiculous amount of the white vote.

[ Parent ]

not that unlikely.... (none / 0) (#166)
by p lukasiak on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:35:53 PM EST

remember, Obama got only 24% of the white vote in South Carolina.

But winning in NC isn't as important as demonstrating that Obama can't connect with your "average white voter." The SDs are looking at exit polls now, and Obama has got to be making them nervous.

Oh, and those 9 state polls that SUSA released last week -- very bad news for Obama. Clinton held her own against McCain in those nine states since the 50 state poll was done in late February, but Obama has lost close to five points (9 state average) versus McCain.

Clinton actually gained support overall -- but so did McCain ("undecideds" are deciding). But while Hillary's overall support increased, Obama's decreased -- he lost support that was there in February, and lost the former "undecideds" as well.

In nearly every demographic category in which a comparison could be made, if Obama did well, CLinton did better, if Clinton did not do well, Obama did wrose.

[ Parent ]

: True (none / 0) (#183)
by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:42:20 PM EST

But NC has a larger academic, latte liberal population than South Carolina so I think it will be hard for her to do as well among the white vote as she did in South Carolina. Think Research Triangle Park.
OTOH, she may not need to since I think AAs will make up less of the primary voters in NC than in SC, although still a healthy chunk
But I agree, Obama's problem with SDs is convincing them that he can win over working class and rural whites. Hillary might now win NC with 65% of the white vote, but she'd still probably be seen as the winner by many SDs.

[ Parent ]
: Tommorow's headlines today: pre/post polling off (none / 0) (#213)
by Ellie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:17:53 PM EST

My gut tells me tomorrow's big story, though not necessarily in the headline, will be about how the advance polling AND the exit polls were off. (Much head-scratching among the "experts" in Punditstan.)
Why? Because people lie about hot-button issues (eg, abortion, same-sex marriage) and even more so when the button is particularly hot and the person polled doesn't want to be perceived as *-ist.
Since Clinton vs. Obama has a couple of buttons raging very hotly right now, I'm interested in the gaps between pre and post polls and how the voting was actually distributed.
Also, African American voters were distinctly pressured to support Obama more so than women voters were to support Clinton; couldn't offer you crossover numbers since I'm about as innumerate as it gets with the finesse of reading polls generally.
I'm also anticipating a lot of buried Buyers' Remorse on purchasing the Obama ticket to show up in the voting, which is contingent on the candidate's weaknesses revealed during the momentum gap. There were a LOT revealed in a relatively short period, which may not have affected the diehard supporters but might have anyone worried about how much juice and money will be needed to power him ahead in the GE.
Outspending HRC in PA 3:1 and pre-spinning asingle digit HRC win as a loss might be fodder for the bobbleheads but it must be terrifying for the party.
(I've kept the TV off all day and haven't read the updates or watched the coverage.)

[ Parent ]

NC (none / 0) (#144)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:28:31 PM EST

could be interesting, though. If she could cut into his base, that is.

[ Parent ]

unless (none / 0) (#196)
by isaac on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:49:56 PM EST

the edwards endorse hil

[ Parent ]

I know you had to post this twice (none / 0) (#64)
by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:07:46 PM EST

because I didn't believe you the first time. That's sort of shocking, is it really true?

[ Parent ]

Awesome (none / 0) (#87)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:14:21 PM EST

That is nothing short of amazing for Hillary.

[ Parent ]

Amazing? (none / 0) (#105)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:17:32 PM EST

That she's only 9 points behind? What were people thinking before?

[ Parent ]

Last poll I saw had her 22 behind. (5.00 / 1) (#128)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:23:02 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Huge double digit loss (none / 0) (#110)
by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:19:20 PM EST

due to large AA Democratic population.

[ Parent ]

Heh, wouldn't it be sweet if she (5.00 / 3) (#138)
by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:26:26 PM EST

could/DOES cut a double digit negative down to under 5 in NC. What a table flip on O that would be ;)

[ Parent ]

: We Could Call For Obama To Drop Out n/t (5.00 / 2) (#164)
by MO Blue on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:34:52 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Ahhh FINALLY..... Just Voted (5.00 / 6) (#73)
by Mrwirez on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:10:25 PM EST

Mrs. Clinton got my vote today along with all of her delegates and 1 alternate. The place was semi-packed at 4:30 out in the Pittsburgh suburbs, 25 miles east. I can give you guys some hints. The blue collar white men are going heavily for Hillary in Pittsburgh. I am on the largest union job in the area, 1000+ workers at the new Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh . Eight of every ten guys are voting for Hillary. Almost all the women I asked are voting for Hillary.
My HONEST gut feeling in western PA is Clinton BIG. I would guess the more rural areas are gonna go for Hillary. Downtown Philly and colleges is BO's best shot. My guess is she wins the state by about11- 15%...... Just a guess, but I have really been paying attention. WE SHALL SEE.

Children's Hospital link

http://tinyurl.com/6f2wts

You brought a tear to my eye (5.00 / 1) (#93)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:15:25 PM EST

Honestly. If I were at home instead of at work I'd be crying.

[ Parent ]

: Happy tear, just to be clear!!! (5.00 / 2) (#97)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:16:24 PM EST

I'll be a Steelers fan this year, in honor of you all.

[ Parent ]

Thanks -- and for building that hospital (5.00 / 2) (#141)
by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:27:30 PM EST

as a Children's Hospital here saved my life and my daughter's -- and countless others for more than a century now. I wouldn't raise kids without having one near, with all the extraordinary and specialized expertise of the physicians, nurses, researchers, etc.

But they can't build walls and windows worth a darn, so ours also has relied on the skills of our local construction workers (really good ones, with the Germanic tradition here; we're known for buildings that last and last. . . .).

[ Parent ]

Wavering PA Voter (5.00 / 4) (#78)
by DaveOinSF on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:11:36 PM EST

I just talked to an old friend from back when I was living in Central Pennsylvania. He was previously undecided and wavering between Hillary and Obama for a while.

Well, he voted today - for Hillary!

tweety is pissed (5.00 / 1) (#95)
by isaac on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:15:40 PM EST

wailing on some nonexistent big dog contro

Popular Vote (5.00 / 1) (#99)
by CoralGables on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:16:28 PM EST

For those watching the overall popular vote, a nice thing about PA is they are expecting roughly 2 million voters on the Democratic side today making it easy to make Popular Vote predictions. Each percentage of margin of victory should equal about 20,000 votes.

A 55-45 win for Clinton will close the gap by about 200,000 votes this evening.

Doesn't anyone think it odd (5.00 / 1) (#101)
by waldenpond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:16:32 PM EST

that Rahm Emanuel thinks it is the suburbs that are going to matter in November not the rural vote? I thought we needed the rural vote to win? So new map and new demographics?

If you thought it was safe to go to the polls... (5.00 / 1) (#147)
by Universal on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:29:18 PM EST

...while being a Clinton supporter, think again:

http://www.villarrealsports.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=450

At this point I don't even care who wins (5.00 / 1) (#149)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:30:02 PM EST

I want Obama to come within 5 points, or Hillary to win by more than 25. Just so I don't have to think about it anymore.

On that note, I'm gonna go have a few drinks and try not to watch politics or think about it till its over.

My prediction = Hillary by 11, just to piss me off.

: I Hear Ya (none / 0) (#191)
by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:47:48 PM EST

I saw Susie Madrak predicted Clinton by 9.6% because it would be the most unhelpful and frustrating outcome possible.
It does seem that the fates don't want this thing decided any time soon.

[ Parent ]

A thought for post PA results and trolling (5.00 / 1) (#158)
by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:33:00 PM EST

Everyone:
Here is a simple proposal I have when we are hit by the inevitable trolls that will descend most likely after today's results: let's NOT engage them in any kind of response. Rather let's try to only respond with humor. We can see who can come up with the funniest non offensive answers. Kind of like a game.

It will either help our good mood get better or salve the pain.

Any takers?

P.S. Sorry about redundant post in this and other open thread.

: Sure thing (5.00 / 1) (#184)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:42:28 PM EST

I've been ignoring some of them already. On the SITES THAT SHALL NOT BE NAMED, that is impossible.
This is too way relaxing. I just want to gloat with buddies today.

[ Parent ]
: No one has put more (5.00 / 2) (#209)
by echinopsia on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:05:46 PM EST

waffles on the table than Obama.

[ Parent ]

Hmm (5.00 / 1) (#165)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:35:02 PM EST

a little more than half of voters were women

This is bad news for Hillary. She needs as close to a 60/40 F/M split as possible.

And Fox just moaned that women voters (5.00 / 1) (#174)
by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:38:46 PM EST

were upset about the negative campaign, and Fox saw that as bad for Clinton -- because, apparently, the presumption by media is that it was Clinton going negative. I did not see (might have missed) exit poll data saying that went against one candidate or the other.

[ Parent ]

The poll said (5.00 / 1) (#178)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:40:24 PM EST

67% said Clinton went negative while 49% said Obama went negative.

This actually is a meaningless statistic. See Ohio.

[ Parent ]

: Okay. Feeling better about that now. (5.00 / 1) (#202)
by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:56:19 PM EST

Taking hypertension pills. May survive next several hours.
I hate raw exit poll data. It's ye olden "readers on the street" interviews, stupid without turnout data yet. Plus, despite their disclaimers, I despite media even discussin such stuff yet with polls still open.
Time to switch to reruns of sitcoms until polls close.

[ Parent ]

More (5.00 / 1) (#177)
by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:40:09 PM EST

CNN Exit Polls:

CNN EXIT POLL WHITE MEN:

55% Hillary
45% Obama

61% seniors Clinton
38% seniors Obama

More Fox Exits (5.00 / 1) (#210)
by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:08:23 PM EST

Churchgoers HRC 59% BO 41%
Gunowners HRC 58% BO 42%
Unions HRC 58% BO 42%

Limbaugh (5.00 / 1) (#214)
by nellre on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:19:19 PM EST

Listened a bit to him today. He's telling republicans to register as democrats to skew the results.
This seems like it should be illegal. It is an attempt to short circuit the democratic process.

I know this isn't new, but it's the first time I have heard it from the horses mouth.

exit poll extrapolation (5.00 / 1) (#215)
by zebedee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:26:40 PM EST

Trying to piece together actual exit poll voting from what's been published by CBS

70% would be happy at HRC win, 64% with BO win
60% of HRC voters unhappy if BO won, 50% of BO voters unhappy if HRC won.

Assuming all voters happy if their candidate won, this gives HRC 48%, BO 43% if my math is correct. Presumably 9% didn't answer unhappiness question

Do you believe in exit polls? (none / 0) (#1)
by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:34:11 PM EST

do you believe in magic? (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:34:54 PM EST

[ Parent ]

"In a young girl's heart?" (5.00 / 2) (#8)
by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:37:07 PM EST

Gotta love The Lovin' Spoonful!

[ Parent ]

sometimes (none / 0) (#3)
by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:35:26 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Not since 2004 exit polls (none / 0) (#38)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:56:11 PM EST

but was that Zogby? I was so sure Kerry had won - until the results started coming in.

[ Parent ]

Flashbacks (5.00 / 2) (#47)
by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:01:02 PM EST

To unopened champaign bottles, massive depression, disbelief...

What an awful day it was...

[ Parent ]

I can't believe it (5.00 / 2) (#52)
by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:03:41 PM EST

You had unopened champagne? Me too, the warm bottle sitting next to me.....4:00 a.m., no sleep and sitting there in a shocked stupor watching CNN.

[ Parent ]

Ugh, it was horrible (5.00 / 4) (#54)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:04:14 PM EST

I was at home that day, online all day long, and we were all so sure of a Kerry victory. I was so upset that I called in sick to work the next day. And I didn't even particularly like Kerry - I was just so disgusted with Bush.

[ Parent ]

I remember walking into the studio (5.00 / 3) (#90)
by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:14:57 PM EST

the next morning. "Doom and disbelief" was the over all impression that smacked you in the face.

[ Parent ]

: They still tease me (5.00 / 2) (#125)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:22:17 PM EST

at work about calling in sick that day. My boss was very sympathetic - he's Jewish and was freaked out (as was I) about the evangelical anti-gay vote that possibly swung the election (along with a bit of fraud). That day, he told me that if he were younger, he'd move out of the country. He said that his father always taught him that the only thing you can rely on is education, that "they" can take everything else from you except your intellectual achievements.

[ Parent ]

Kerry did win. (5.00 / 2) (#66)
by derridog on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:08:08 PM EST

[ Parent ]

It wasn't just Zogby (none / 0) (#80)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:13:12 PM EST

Internal Kerry polling showed a win in Ohio. A friend's husband was working for Kerry and we got little updates during the late afternoon. The entire office was practically dancing with excitement. As the returns started coming in, I actually switched to Faux News in order to witness the delightful scene of Pat Buchanan and Brit Hume looking that they were going to cry.

But then things went awry....

[ Parent ]

Your memory is slightly faulty (none / 0) (#85)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:14:15 PM EST

because Pat Buchanan is and was on MSNBC. (How easily we conflate the two networks these days. . .).

[ Parent ]

: I was mostly watching MSNBC (5.00 / 3) (#117)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:20:35 PM EST

so I guess I was conflating my Faux and MSNBC viewing.
Or maybe I was confused by the sniper fire. ;-)

[ Parent ]

i was in italy (none / 0) (#112)
by Turkana on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:19:30 PM EST

reading the blogs, and everybody thought kerry was winning ohio. bush's people were being pissy, on tv, and kerry's confident. that's part of why the conspiracy theories got so much traction.

[ Parent ]

I was here in Pittsburgh (5.00 / 1) (#198)
by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:54:06 PM EST

Going door to door in the pouring November rain with my list of reg'd Dems, reminding people to vote, driving old ladies to the polls. One elderly woman wanted me to adopt her cat as she was moving to FL.

Got backto the HQ and they were calling PA for Kerry and probably OH too. We were ecstatic...but not for long. I actually went online to Monster the next day and put in a new profile for jobs in Canada. Ready to leave. That distraught.

[ Parent ]

I think that in any other election (none / 0) (#121)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:21:37 PM EST

in history, the number of votes Kerry got would have easily won him that state. Bush just got more. . .

[ Parent ]

: in any other election in history (5.00 / 1) (#162)
by Turkana on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:34:43 PM EST

kerry's national vote total would have meant a landslide win!

[ Parent ]

Don't remind me. (none / 0) (#127)
by Fabian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:22:53 PM EST

Between Tom Noe and Blackwell and Karl Rove, I reach for my tinfoil beanie every time I think about our state and the 2004 election. (Ohio)

[ Parent ]

Kerry 2004 - Ohio (none / 0) (#181)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:41:41 PM EST

I was on the ground. Exit polls, in my opinion, were correct. I worked in AA wards; you could cut anti-W sentiment with a knife. Record turnouts, despite rain all day & cold, no one left without voting -- even elderly & cripples.

[ Parent ]

: a friend (none / 0) (#206)
by isaac on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:01:00 PM EST

was arrested in ohio for registering AA's... twice

[ Parent ]

If They're Weighted, Yes (none / 0) (#107)
by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:18:10 PM EST

If they're not, they're practically useless.

[ Parent ]

Exit polls (none / 0) (#153)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:31:59 PM EST

are sometimes accurate. I believe, personally, that when people vote against the stream, then they lie.

I think, personally, they did that in the last presidential election. I believe Bush got a lot of votes due to people not wanting to switch presidents in mid-war, but then said they voted for Kerry because they were Democrats.

All my 2 cents......and worth about as much.

[ Parent ]

CNN Castellanos while not perfect handled (none / 0) (#37)
by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:55:09 PM EST

the so named, Most Harmful Democrat, nicely calling her on her bluff as a non committed Obama represetative of hte DNC...anyway he is hangin out on CNN tonight pair with Donna Wolfe seem to be treating her as an Obama spokesperson.

Donna IS a "noncommitted" Obama (none / 0) (#77)
by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:11:16 PM EST

supporter.

[ Parent ]

: Donna is (5.00 / 6) (#84)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:14:12 PM EST

an "ought to be committed" Obama supporter.

[ Parent ]

NC SUSA (none / 0) (#71)
by grrchapelhill on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:09:31 PM EST

on wtvd abc durham. watching it now

Obama strategy (none / 0) (#76)
by magster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:11:02 PM EST

So did Obama way outspend Clinton because he thought he had to, or because he simply could with his gobs and gobs of money? It kind of made sense for him to essentially write off PA back in March in an attempt to minimize the embarrasment of an anticipated big loss, and then try to end it on May 6 instead. But he obvioulsy didn't do that.

He didn't really try to win PA (5.00 / 4) (#91)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:15:00 PM EST

Just like he now says they didn't really try to maximize the popular vote in CA.

Whatever.

[ Parent ]

That was a bit of an unexpected statement (5.00 / 1) (#116)
by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:20:28 PM EST

about CA. I was like, WTF?!

[ Parent ]

Yeah, personally, when I don't care about (5.00 / 5) (#124)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:22:16 PM EST

winning, I always wheel out Ted Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy, Maria Shriver and Patrick Kennedy in order to seal the defeat.

[ Parent ]

: then, just to be sure, (5.00 / 2) (#136)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:26:04 PM EST

I bring out Oprah!

[ Parent ]

CA (none / 0) (#168)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:36:39 PM EST

was a last-minute attempt when he saw the momentum going his way.

It was so in the bag for Hillary. Then he decided to make a run at it. He could only do a "big show," however.

She had all the ground support locked up.

[ Parent ]

: I thought he went all out before last minute? (none / 0) (#186)
by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:43:00 PM EST

I was up to my ears in deadlines at the time, but for some reason I thought he had a shot in CA?
It's such a key state (and I'm from there) so maybe that's why I thought the way I did :)

[ Parent ]

Campaigning in PA (none / 0) (#189)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:46:23 PM EST

I think all campaigns, in the heat of battle, drink their own koolaid. I think Obama campaign probably thought: Hillary's better known and Barack is such a superior candidate, if Obama campaign just spends lots of money & devotes lots of time in PA, its voters will share the love.
Just so happens, perhaps they will be proven wrong. If so, they'll claim they always knew they wouldn't win and just wanted to cut her lead.... let's see by how much.

[ Parent ]

He thought he had to (5.00 / 3) (#104)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:17:21 PM EST

Who throws that kind of money around on a whim? PA is a big state and a swing state. Obama hasn't won a big state aside from IL - speaks to his electability. Isn't PA the last big state left? This is his last chance to prove that he can win a large, diverse state.

[ Parent ]

Define large, diverse (none / 0) (#118)
by CST on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:20:40 PM EST

PA = large, diverse??? Maybe Philly. Also, are we talking large population, or large size. Because Virginia isn't exactly empty, and Washington State isn't exactly small.

[ Parent ]

Washington State (none / 0) (#146)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:29:15 PM EST

was a caucus. I'm not counting caucuses. Maybe Virginia, but most Southern states have a preponderance of AA's voting as Dems, but a preponderance of Republicans in the overall demographic.

Virginia has 13 electoral votes. WA has 11. I'm talking about the states with 20-plus. Clinton has pwned Obama in those states.

[ Parent ]

Doesn't Washington (5.00 / 1) (#190)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:47:34 PM EST

also have a primary?

I thought it did, and the numbers shifted to much less of a big win for him.

[ Parent ]

: Yeah (none / 0) (#205)
by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:58:18 PM EST

but the primary doesn't count. Stupid system.
You're right - he won by large numbers in the caucuses and by about 2% in the primary.

[ Parent ]

Electoral Votes (none / 0) (#171)
by Fabian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:37:08 PM EST

PA is in the top ten.

[ Parent ]

The amount he spent (5.00 / 3) (#159)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:33:08 PM EST

was obscene:

11.4 MILLION in TV ads alone, compared to her 4.1.

Unbelievable.

[ Parent ]

5 million on telemarketing (none / 0) (#176)
by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:39:58 PM EST

is that included in the ads, or on top of?

[ Parent ]

: JUST (none / 0) (#193)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:48:13 PM EST

TV ads.

[ Parent ]

He had to (none / 0) (#201)
by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:55:47 PM EST

Absolutely has to knock her out and shut this thing down now. The mo the rest of the way home is more in her favor than his.

[ Parent ]

Nobody looks happy (none / 0) (#83)
by gyrfalcon on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:13:57 PM EST

on MSNBC right now-- Tweety, Tucker, Chuck Todd. OTOH, they just did a piece on Bill's completely inexplicable flat-out denial that he said something the other day that he absolutely did say, caught on tape. I'm starting to worry a little about him.

I've been worried about Bill Clinton ever since (5.00 / 1) (#212)
by jawbone on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:11:27 PM EST

he had the open heart surgery. Friend of family definitely had memory problems after her quad heart by-pass surgery. Initially she did not recognize us. That improved, but she was not the same after the surgery.

Commenter at MyDD posted about the known problems which affect patients of this surgery.

I can't figure out how to link to a comment over there, so here's the link the commenter used

From this post.

[ Parent ]

What is Bill denying that he said (none / 0) (#94)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:15:35 PM EST

that he said?

[ Parent ]

The big dawg is talking (5.00 / 2) (#161)
by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:34:28 PM EST

again. LOL*

He got caught saying "I shouldn't have to put up with that hit. thinking he was off-mike.

Or so the story goes.

I may be the only one who gets a big kick out of his gaffes. They are so......on the money.

[ Parent ]

Radio host asked what happened (none / 0) (#109)
by vicndabx on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:18:52 PM EST

in SC re: Jesse Jackson, Bill says "they played the race card". Reporter asks him about it, you couldn't really hear the question to be honest, Bill says, "I didn't say that".

[ Parent ]

Tweety's trying to make a big deal (5.00 / 2) (#115)
by vicndabx on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:20:22 PM EST

Chuck Todd, suprisingly defends Bill, some other commentator does the same, Tucker Carlson says basically what do expect from Bill. I really can't stand Tweety anymore.....

[ Parent ]

: Not having seen any of this (5.00 / 2) (#143)
by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:27:58 PM EST

I trust Chuck Todd's opinion. He is usually an honest broker.

[ Parent ]

Well, that depends on what the reporter said he (5.00 / 1) (#134)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:24:56 PM EST

said. If the reporter said, "didn't you compare Obama's victory to Jesse Jackson's victory in order to marginalize Obama as a black candidate," Bill would be within his rights to say, "I didn't say that." The words are the words, and I assume he's seen the clip a million times. He doesn't have to cop to the "intent."

[ Parent ]

CNN has a story on it (5.00 / 1) (#155)
by vicndabx on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:32:41 PM EST

with a link to a recording of the interview here. Personally, I think Tweety's reaching in order to take some of the shine off what they think will be a big win for Hill tonite. There is a slight difference in the question Bill was asked vs. the question as quoted in the story. You'll hear it, the recording asks about the past and Bill w/played. The next day the reporter asks about "playing," as in still doing today. Bill's right to be pissed about this crap.

[ Parent ]

: I see that Obama didn't miss (5.00 / 1) (#175)
by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:39:27 PM EST

the opportunity to muddle the issue.

[ Parent ]

Exactly (none / 0) (#216)
by vigkat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:58:38 PM EST

Bill is not stupid enough to deny something he said the day before. I think the question, which I could not hear, was framed in a gotcha kind of way that did not fairly represent what it was that Bill had said during the interview. What I don't get is the utter inexhaustible need to parse every single word that comes out of Bill's mouth, and then blame Hillary for it, using their characterization and interpretation, of course. It's grown extremely tiring.

[ Parent ]

Breaking (none / 0) (#151)
by magster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:30:25 PM EST

Per TMZ.com, Obama-girl voted today in PA -- claims to have dual NJ-PA citizenship.

: Whaaaa? Dual state "citizenship"? (5.00 / 1) (#169)
by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:36:43 PM EST

Uh, residency, maybe. But then, it's Obama girl, already proven to not be the brightest bulb in the garden. :-)

[ Parent ]
: Is that ObamaMama that was (5.00 / 1) (#179)
by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:40:25 PM EST

*hitting on Talkleft a while ago?

[ Parent ]

Link to SUSA NC (none / 0) (#163)
by grrchapelhill on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:34:51 PM EST

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6096863

Speaking of gun owners (none / 0) (#185)
by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:42:39 PM EST

My father reported today that at the Colorado Springs Democratic headquarters he picked up a bumper sticker that reads 'Democratic Gun Control Means Using Both Hands'. Gotta love Colorado

: Fox...Gun Owners (none / 0) (#188)
by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:46:09 PM EST

Gun Owners
58% C
42% O

[ Parent ]

Exit poll accuracy (none / 0) (#200)
by zebedee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:54:51 PM EST

Exit polls are always reported as gospel, supposedly telling us how the various demographics voted. Looking at the samples size, usually between 1000-2000, these aren't that different from any of the polls that get reported. Any reason why exit polls should be more accurate? I would have thought less accurate, given the difficulty of accurately questioning from all over the geographically dispersed precincts.

: Good point (none / 0) (#204)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:58:02 PM EST

[ Parent ]
: I agree; even worse, they morph into fact (none / 0) (#208)
by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:03:59 PM EST

in media accounts and history books. Just pointed out to students today, as we discussed that the CW is that women started voting more than men in 1952, that the ballots didn't have check-off boxes for gender. And that exit polling, still not anything I'd put my good money on, was not as good then.
And that it seems that no one asked before then, so maybe women voted more than men even before 1952.
Whenever I see local exit polling, I have the same questions you do as to how well they really capture all the idiosyncrasies of city to city, town to town, ward to ward, etc., here.

[ Parent ]

CNN has a delegate calculator up... (none / 0) (#203)
by Exeter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 04:57:05 PM EST

...that is pretty nifty

: I don't want to hear about delegates tonight (none / 0) (#207)
by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 05:01:20 PM EST

though I expect we will.

[ Parent ]

Exit Polls: Thread One | 216 comments (216 topical)