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Umbrella Of Deterrence Part II

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

In some ways, reactions like this one to Hillary Clinton's "umbrella of deterrence" proposal explains why some Dems shiver in fear at any mention of national security issues in an election. Matt Stoller writes (see also Matt Yglesias' flip flop, he did not object to this proposal BEFORE it became a Hillary proposal; CDS strikes againYglesias clarifies that he is not objecting to the proposal but to Wolfson's bizarre denial; fair point; see also Noam Scheiber ("Her answers on the policy questions were pretty lucid and authoritative--particularly on the Middle East "nuclear umbrella" idea, which sounds a little crazy when you first hear about it, but which she convinced me was an anti-proliferation proposal."):

A massive new security commitment in this volatile region is just insane. And the belligerent rhetoric - 'totally obliterate them' - what the hell? It's like 7th graders with nuclear weapons. I'm having a harder and harder time seeing the difference between McCain and Clinton. Perhaps Clinton will be more saddened than McCain's gleefully militarism as she launches an attack on Iraq [sic], but that's just tone.

Perhaps Stoller's comment just reflects ignorance or perhaps something more, but to equate a proposal that would actually obviate the possibility of a preemptive attack against an Iran that acquires nuclear weapons with John McCain's neocon view that the U.S. must take military action PRIOR to Iran's gaining nuclear weapons has the concept upside down.

Let me quote again from Harvard Middle East Studies article I discussed earlier:

At one end of the spectrum is the view that Iran’s religious elites would order an offensive nuclear attack against the United States or U.S. forces or Israel, despite the certainty of suffering a catastrophic response, because they would be willing to die to eliminate Iran’s infidel enemies. (Some critics of the Bush administration accuse it of adopting this eschatological understanding of Iran’s strategic calculus.) It is difficult to envision any effective U.S. deterrent to a nuclear Iran if this view is accurate.

(Emphasis supplied.) You see it is the neocons and the Bush Administration that has rejected deterrence theory against Iran. It is Matt Stoller who is sounding like a Bush Administration neocon. It is Matt Stoller who sounds like John McCain. While it is true that the remedy that Stoller would propose for the Iran problem is different than the solution McCain would propose - McCain would attack Iran, Stoller would allow Iran to run unchecked in the Middle East - the analysis of the effectiveness of deterrence is the same.

If and when Barack Obama speaks favorably of the Clinton proposal, what then will Matt Stoller and other Obama supporters say? Will it become a reasonable proposal again? Or will Stoller call Obama insane? Oh BTW, anyone wondering why Obama is not denouncing this proposal from Hillary Clinton? Does it ever cross the mind of these folks that if Obama thinks this is insane, perhaps he might want to say so? There is certainly a type of insanity afoot here, but it is not from Hillary Clinton.

NOTE - Comments closed.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Why don't Democrats ever learn? (5.00 / 8) (#1)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:53:05 AM EST
    We lose election after election because we look like wimps on national security.  Then Hillary comes out with a sensible plan that is both strong AND diplomatic and we call her a neo-con!  I wonder why we keep losing.

    Hillary, GREAT! (none / 0) (#142)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:17:55 AM EST

    Hillary's statement was great because it removed the chance that Iran might miscalculate a US response.  When dealing with nukes, vague is bad.  Really bad.

    Signature Song
    [ Parent ]

    If and when Barack Obama speaks favorably (5.00 / 8) (#2)
    by MO Blue on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:53:06 AM EST
    of the Clinton proposal, what then will Matt Stoller and other Obama supporters say?

    His supporters will say that it is the most remarkable idea ever and it show how truly brilliant Obama is for coming up with this solution.

    Clinton's plan (as usual) (5.00 / 7) (#3)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:56:16 AM EST
    is a thoughtfully laid out proposal that doesn't just look at the immediate problem, but seeks to address long term threats.  This is her greatest strength-anticipating the fall out from a decision (as opposed to Obama, who can't even make the decision in the first place)  After the debacle that is the Iraq war, America doesn't just need to redeem itself morally, but militarily.  By reminding people that we are a super power, and that we have the technology and capability to retaliate at will against any and all attacks against America or our allies, will go toward restoring our military reputation as well.

    And how Clinton's plan is being framed irresponsible is beyond me, but then I don't read those other blogs because they make my stomach hurt.  I do find it strange that Obama saying, during a debate, that he would launch an attack on a sovereign nation (Pakistan) if he had actionable intelligence slides by under the outrage-radar, yet Clinton gets slammed for actually presenting a workable and viable deterrent against ever having to put any of our soldiers in harm's way.

    It just proves that they will find any and every way to hate her.  I am so glad that these so-called progressives on the blogosphere represent such a tiny, tiny minority of the rest of the population.  If only the media understood that.

    Campaign Craziness (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:57:49 AM EST
    I still am laughing that the picture of Osama bin Ladin caused such an uproar.  Now this.

    The demonization of Hillary Clinton has been a spectacle to watch from the far left.  They have been far more Republican than the Republicans ever could have been in their heyday.

    Her discussion on this topic is very relevant to actual events going on in the world.  Obama never addresses real issues.  So far, I've not seen much from him other than attacking the Clintons and special interests.

    It's fascinating to watch someone campaign and manage to avoid all reality.  

    Is it any wonder? (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by annabelly on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:23:46 AM EST
    Considering so many of the Blogger Boyz used to BE Republican?

    This is the problem with politicking with Republicans or former Republicans--they cannot be trusted. Who knows if what they spout is truth, or some cleverly designed plan to infiltrate Dem ranks? I'm not generally a conspiracy theorists, but I put nothing, nothing at all beyond the Reps in power now.

    [ Parent ]

    I always assumed (none / 0) (#141)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:17:06 AM EST
    that a nuke dropped on Israel would lead to the offending nation being nuked in return.

    [ Parent ]
    And I LOVE the anti-Semitism (5.00 / 3) (#11)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:11:52 AM EST
    in the  Yglesias thread.

    yglesias's blog has been an (5.00 / 3) (#29)
    by kangeroo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:27:20 AM EST
    eye-opener for me this season on the potential hazards of not enforcing civility rules--especially in an atmosphere where CDS is contagious.  a month or so ago i dropped by and was shocked at the vitriol and the pettiness in the thread.  bitter hatred toward krugman, blatant misogyny toward clinton, gratuitous expletives galore--and i noted yglesias was doing nothing to stop them.  they were like a bunch of savages or something; it was a scene straight out of lord of the flies.

    [ Parent ]
    and the anti-Semitism comments at DK! (5.00 / 2) (#37)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:30:44 AM EST
    Wow! diary on Rec list about Hillary and nukes.
    A few months ago, these comments would have been troll rated - now they're rec'd.


    [ Parent ]
    Really? (5.00 / 3) (#42)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:32:44 AM EST
    I'm not going over there to read that.

    [ Parent ]
    The core Obama support (none / 0) (#215)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:04:43 AM EST
    is/was anti Ahmedinajad and anti palestinian.  In fact many of the core Obama fans were habitual denizens of the IP threads chasing away anti Israeli view points.

    Since Obama started his run They simply switched from attacking critical viewpoints (some of the TR justified)  about Israel to walloping Edwards.

    There was radio silence about the Arab Israel conflict among the 4 or 5 most prominent Obama supporters who had normally acted as self appointed censors of the IP threads.  Most of thew paliestinina flag wavers are propably pro Obama as well.

    strange bedfellows indeed.

    [ Parent ]

    They hate Israel (5.00 / 3) (#60)
    by dianem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:41:00 AM EST
    My first truly negative experience at Daily Kos was when I was repeatedly flamed for defending Israel during the latest Israel/Palestine conflict. I was shocked at the level of hatred almost everybody there had for Israel. They saw the Palestinians as innocent victims and Israel as the powerful oppressor. I'm not blindly pro-Israel. I support their right to exist as a nation, but I know that they have made a lot of mistakes in their handling of the Palestinians. There were a handful of us defending Israel, pointing out that they were also victims and not all Palestinians were innocent. It was ugly. I couldn't believe the one-sidedness of the debate.

    Then I remembered why I don't go to progressive rallies. My first anti-war rally was the big Iraq rally right before the build-up. I was surprised to hear the people at the podium talking not about Iraq, but about Palestine, and just as hatefully as the Kossacks. I felt "bait and switched". I was there to protest Iraq, not Israel.

    [ Parent ]

    David Corn (5.00 / 3) (#65)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:42:50 AM EST
    has written on this before. I won't have anything to do with ANSWER, personally.

    [ Parent ]
    Interesting read (5.00 / 1) (#140)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:16:49 AM EST
    Thanks for link.

    [ Parent ]
    normally you get TRed (none / 0) (#204)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:59:13 AM EST
    if you have a pro palestinian position.  Since the primary though all the IP denizens on the pro Israeli side have kept quiet---they are mainly pro Obama pro Israelis.

    Althoiugh Obama has a great deal of support from pro palestinain posters.

    this is a simplified short version fof the state of the IP discussion there.  It stopped when Obama entered the race.

    [ Parent ]

    So Many Democrats (5.00 / 4) (#13)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:12:48 AM EST
    seem not to understand foreign policy and basic history in the area of foreign policy (e.g., classic deterrence theory) that it's depressing.  The weird thing is that many of these same folks give foreign policy as the reason they support Obama.  Oh, wait, maybe that's not weird at all...

    (To be fair to Obama, I do not believe he's likely to show the same ignorance as some of his supporters if only because he has better advisors).

    yup - Do they think that most NATO (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:42:33 AM EST
    countries don't have nuclear weapons because they are not afraid of getting attacked by someone that does?  No, they do not have them because they are in an arrangement with the U.S., England, and France to provide the deterrence for them. Why can't they think the same logic could apply to Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, etc?   It is certainly worth a try, and a diplomatic effort.

    I believe Obama knows this and it is just his short-sighted supporters who are unwilling to give Hillary credit for anything.

    [ Parent ]

    BTW (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:14:59 AM EST
    I want to add that when Barack Obama was being attacked for his statements about going after Al Qaida in Pakistan I was in the front lines defending his eminently sensible comments.

    I don't think it's the same thing at all (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by dianem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:31:17 AM EST
    Obama was talking about an attack that could destabilize an existing allied government in order to achieve a unilateral success for the United States. At best, going after al quaeda in Pakistan without their permission would be a PR disaster that would impact our relations with every middle east nation. At worst, it could precipitate a civil war within Pakistan that resulted in factions that are against the U.S. taking control of the nation.

    Clinton is talking about an agreement with Arab nations to prevent nuclear escalation.

    [ Parent ]

    Excuse me (none / 0) (#54)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:38:58 AM EST
    But I do not believe it would have been destabilizing at all. Indeed, the Bush Administration did JUST THAT AFTER Obama's statements and the Musharraf government did not fall.

    You are wrong.

    [ Parent ]

    I don't hold Bush as a good role model (none / 0) (#67)
    by dianem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:43:48 AM EST
    And I didn't say it would be destabilizing, just that it could. I don't want to take that risk. I'm afraid we will have to agree to disagree.

    [ Parent ]
    The US always denies attacking any area (none / 0) (#80)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:48:22 AM EST
    in Pakistan.  Though Bush has done it, it's never been an open policy to do that. BO said he would bomb a known terrorist hideout in Pakistan, and make it a policy.  I believe that was his position.  The problem with it is that Pakistanis do not approve of the US attacking any area. I do not want to go into too much detail, but we do not want an uprise in Pakistan.

    [ Parent ]
    We were in the middle of an arms deal (none / 0) (#107)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:01:07 AM EST
    with Pakistan when Obama said what he said.  Part of the arms deal was that they were going to deal with the Taliban and they did need things they didn't have to deal with them effectively and we did provide those arms.  Pakistan was part of the attack on the Taliban that took place then, we didn't do it alone.

    [ Parent ]
    thank goodness we intervened (none / 0) (#119)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:05:56 AM EST
    because now the Taliban is even stronger, and their opium is flooding the world market, so we are basically financing them with our drug money.  

    [ Parent ]
    We are capitalists first ya know ;) (none / 0) (#126)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:09:31 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Obama's statements were attacked (none / 0) (#154)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:22:53 AM EST
    Erroneously by the leftist bloggers who were then trying to figure out if Edwards might win.

    Yes.  Some then, just like today, said he was being more hawkish than Bush.  They said "He's going to invade Pakistan" the same way they're saying, hysterically, "She's going to bomb Iran" today about Clinton.

    But there was a valid criticism of Obama's comments on Musharraf and Pakistan.  They have been written about before and they should not be forgotten.  Obama's first conclusion was that it was Musharraff's job to go get Osama Bin Laden.  It did not yet occur to Obama until much later on that Musharraff might not have the capacity to do so.

    And that it was ALREADY policy that if we had actionable intel, we would, obviously, act.

    So yeah, bleating on about how Obama was being hawkish was dumb.  Just as it is about Clinton now.

    Pointing out that Obama didn't really know what he was talking about still remains valid.

    On this issue, Obama did modulate his statement ("If Musharraff can't act, we should," instead of "If Musharraff won't act, we will.")  So I'll give him points for being a slippery politician (which can be a good thing) and displaying a capacity to learn.


    [ Parent ]

    Obama won't asy anything (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:22:08 AM EST
    about this unless he is asked, and he is doing his best not to be asked about anything except his choice of syrup.  Meanwhile his ignorant supporters back themselves into a corner.

    Obama himself is smarter than they are, and will come around to this idea, if he hasn't already. He just won't talk about it until and unless he is the nominee and he can make it his own policy.

    Josh Marshall has zero to say (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:24:40 AM EST
    about Hillary's proposal so far. If he continues his embarrassing silence, we'll know that he approves.

    Of course he does (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:25:56 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    He's actually waiting for Obama (5.00 / 4) (#35)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:30:16 AM EST
    to come out with the Me-Too statement.  Then he can cheerlead for the strategy while never giving Hillary any credit for it.

    [ Parent ]
    So funny! (none / 0) (#50)
    by Shainzona on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:36:44 AM EST
    Thanks for my first laugh-out-loud of the day!

    [ Parent ]
    don't bet on it. (none / 0) (#102)
    by cpinva on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:57:34 AM EST
    Josh Marshall has zero to say
    about Hillary's proposal so far. If he continues his embarrassing silence, we'll know that he approves.

    you're assuming, without justification, that mr. marshall actually understands the proposal. i operate under no such illusions.

    BTD, you are flat out wrong. the recent, brief incursion into pakistan was just that, brief. it could be explained away as a mistake made in the heat of the chase, quickly rectified and with apologies all around.

    the sustained type of entry of which obama speaks would provide the spark needed to enflame an already incindiary situation. the musharraf gov't would fall, replaced by god only know's what. but, you can be assured, whatever it is will not be friendly to US interests.

    that's sort of a problem with dictators, they have no legitimacy among the people, and it doesn't take all that much for them to go, absent brutal crackdowns. i don't think musharraf has enough sway with the army at this point to pull that off.

    [ Parent ]

    Where does Obama speak of a (none / 0) (#113)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:03:34 AM EST
    sustained entry into Pakistan?

    [ Parent ]
    Funny How Obama Supporters Didn't Seem To Have (5.00 / 3) (#30)
    by MO Blue on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:27:30 AM EST
    any problems with Obama wanting to tailor his foreign policy after Reagan.

    Reagan is their secret hero (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:44:36 AM EST
    They grew up adnmiring him. Such a great communciator, such great speeches!! So charismatic!!!

    [ Parent ]
    Criticism of Clinton's Position (5.00 / 3) (#31)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:28:39 AM EST
    The irony of the criticism she's getting is that the real criticism is that it won't work.  It's the criticism from the article BTD quoted, that the countries in the region can't be relied upon to enter such a security agreement or keep their end of the bargain so that the agreement won't be taken seriously by Iran.  The follow up, of course, would be that that means the U.S. must either do something else to stop Iran (negotiate if possible or worse) or permit Iran to continue on to develop nuclear weapons in the next decade or two.  

    It's depressing to see how many democrats are uncomfortable with threatening the use of hard power as a negotiating tool.  Threatening to use it is not the same as using it.  I suppose it's understandable, to a certain extent, in the wake of the Iraq war, but multi-national security agreements - and the threat of hard power behind them - are a way to avoid wars and maintain security.  

    I suppose the big trap (5.00 / 2) (#92)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:53:57 AM EST
    in agreeing with Clinton--that the threat of massive force deters others from striking first--means that the boys would have to go back and validate Clinton's vote on the AUTHORIZATION TO USE FORCE in Iraq.  And her subsequent speeches about how the vote was to be used as a deterrent.  

    Her consistency on this issue is wonderfully clear.  She is saying the same thing now that she said then--that the threat of massive retaliation should be a bargaining tool.

    [ Parent ]

    Oh I disagree with that (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:57:02 AM EST
    Because Bush made it clear that it was a vote for war.

    No no no. you are wrong here imo.

    [ Parent ]

    I think a great many Americans (5.00 / 2) (#110)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:02:00 AM EST
    assumed the threat of war would be enough to prevent war.  Clinton's subsequent speeches on the issue made it clear that's how she felt.  In fact, the CIA operative who interrogated Sadaam said that even Sadaam thought it was saber rattling and that the US would never really send in troops.  He thought that the negotiations would continue, even when the inspectors were pulled.


    [ Parent ]
    I thought the threat would be enough (5.00 / 1) (#123)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:07:50 AM EST
    my soldier husband thought the threat would be enough and thought it was saber rattling.  My vietnam vet Uncle saw it clearly though and knew that once they had the authority we were going to war.  Most of my family though thought they were witnessing deterrence and not the start of a war.

    [ Parent ]
    I think a great many Americans (none / 0) (#135)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:13:25 AM EST
    were dead wrong. And Clinton was one of them.

    [ Parent ]
    I Agree With the Method (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by Dalton Hoffine on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:29:03 AM EST
    Hillary has a great thought out method on this subject, and I think Obama probably has a similar mindset on it. For the difference they have in foreign policy experience, I've always found them to be virtually identical as to how they'd handle problems of national security and foreign policy. They're both highly intelligent people--the only difference I see right now is that Hillary is giving plans already for what she'll do, while Obama is still speaking more in generalities about it (he has mentioned a few specifics, to be fair.)

    I agree with you (none / 0) (#33)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:29:32 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    To be fair (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:32:31 AM EST
    A lot of the derangement in the blogosphere concerning Iran predates Hillary's candidacy.  Everyone wants to be the polar opposite of the Bush Administration, which leads them to act as though Iran has some God-given right to nuclear weapons.  Sometimes this is phrased as "if Israel can have nukes, why can't they?"  It's one thing to understand the Iranian perspective, but it's quite another thing to adopt it.

    When I was a kid growing up in the 80s, we all used to think deterrence theory (they called it "Mutually Assured Destruction" which obviously wouldn't be an accurate term in Iran's case) was the craziest thing ever.  As we got older and wiser we realized that even though it wasn't a great way to live, there really wasn't any other solution, unless you're one of the Jonah Goldberg types who thinks that after the Nazis surrendered we should have continued on to Moscow.

    Maybe it's an artifact of growing up in the Cold War, but I have to wonder, if I understood deterrence theory at the age of 14, what's with all these bloggers who don't?

    Oh I have seen that (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:36:25 AM EST
    But to misunderstand deterrence theory as the Bush Doctrine of Preemptive War is ignorance on a massive scale.

    [ Parent ]
    That's What We Seem to Be Dealing With (none / 0) (#155)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:24:15 AM EST
    At least among some high information voters.   ;-)

    [ Parent ]
    If we do not protect Israel (none / 0) (#104)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:57:55 AM EST
    then there will be no Israel.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama does not say so (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by tarheel74 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:33:21 AM EST
    for any one of the following reasons:

    1. it is not politically expeditious to say something of this nature, he is playing the political game
    2. he has no policy to deter a nuclear Iran
    3. he does not have the courage to say what he really thinks
    4. all of the above


    Obama's people are crafting their (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by inclusiveheart on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:41:10 AM EST
    next "gotcha" response to this issue which will amount to nothing more than a distinction without a difference, but his nuttier supporters will run with it as if they were words handed down from god himself.

    Yesterday, a frightening number of people over at dkos were arguing that the Chinese government is a victim of American corporations and that we have no one to blame but ourselves for their economic policies, horrible record on human rights and their seemingly suicidal environmental policies - all because Clinton spoke out about China and some campaign advisor disagreed with her decision to speak publicly about these very real problems.

    There is no doubt in my mind that if Obama had said what Clinton did last night about the nuclear umbrealla or had spoken out against the Chinese government's policies, these exact same sentiments would have been fully supported and defended by his worshipers.  They were all for secretly attacking Pakistan, but they don't believe in nuclear deterrance or in challenging the Chinese government?  Give me a break.

    My primary complaint about Obama at this point is that the large majority of his supporters it seems will let him get away with anything and demand NOTHING of him.  That is dangerous.  That is cultish and not much of a departure from the cultists in the Bush Administration.

    At least with Senator Clinton, I can be confident that her ideas will be appropriately (and granted inappropriately) challenged - therefore she is in my opinion much more likely to be a responsive President - something we haven't had in two terms.

    I disagree (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:45:33 AM EST
    I think Obama will stand silent on this unless pressed.

    [ Parent ]
    Especially (5.00 / 1) (#157)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:26:39 AM EST
    after the reaction to this among so many of his supporters. I'm surprised they reacted to this so vociferously and so quickly. I had no idea deterrence was viewed this way by so many people.

    Deterrence is scary. But that's why it DETTERS. I think some people get the scary part but not the THEREFORE people are deterred part.

    Scary not allowed apparently.


    [ Parent ]

    To be fair... (none / 0) (#183)
    by inclusiveheart on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:40:53 AM EST
    "Scary" has new meaning for a lot of Americans since the GW Bush Administration took over.

    Some portion of Americans have been made to be extremely paranoid and most of the rest are now wary of the real consequences of military action.

    I think that means that Democrats need to change the paradigm - from fear to confidence and show strength through rational, comprehensive policy statements.

    [ Parent ]

    I can agree with that. (none / 0) (#210)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:01:58 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Deterrence (none / 0) (#186)
    by pie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:44:01 AM EST
    is certainly not as scary as the Bush/neocon policy.

    That one kills people.

    [ Parent ]

    When pressed, he will eat waffle. n/t (none / 0) (#120)
    by ecoast on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:06:17 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Is that his solution for the economy? (none / 0) (#130)
    by blogtopus on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:11:58 AM EST
    Let them eat Waffles?

    [ Parent ]
    Tim Rohemer (none / 0) (#152)
    by AlladinsLamp on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:21:43 AM EST
    on Scarborough this AM: ME umbrella policy too hard - we already have our hands full with Iraq, Iran, Pakistan.

    Someone should ask if Obama agrees.

    [ Parent ]

    I don't know - maybe he will - but (none / 0) (#189)
    by inclusiveheart on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:48:14 AM EST
    based on what I've seen the Obama camp has very little self restraint where it comes to responding to Clinton and taking any shot they might have.

    [ Parent ]
    Left in the Dust (none / 0) (#95)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:54:52 AM EST
    I would anticipate that these types of blogs will wither and blow away when the primary season is over.  Obama will distance himself from that far left quickly.  

    They will be left muttering "What happened?" to themselves.

    [ Parent ]

    Revival of cold war and oil (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:01:43 AM EST
    As we sit here like it or not, the nations with oil reserves are aligning along the old cold war lines.  Russia, China and the Central Asian republics are weaponizing the oil reserves.  Have people not been paying attention?   Bush was supposed to secure the oil agreements with Russia and Central Asia and guess what?  Putin outmaneuvered him.  Now the west is gonna be more aligned with the US.  

    The Middle East will be a tipping point, but the Umbrella is the only thing we have cause, what are we going to do?  Russia and China will help and or defend Iran.  No one will stop Iran from getting weapons, Russia and China will not let the West take control of the second largest reserve of oil with conventional war and occupation.  

    It is about oil.  But we still don't quite get it.  

    Umbrella of Deterrence - Part II (5.00 / 1) (#116)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:04:53 AM EST
    Wasn't this a Chuck Norris movie?

    No - Michael Rennie and Patricia Neal (none / 0) (#193)
    by badger on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:50:44 AM EST
    a/k/a The Day the Earth Stood Still. Except Hillary (or the US) plays the role of Klaatu, the visitor from space, and the US (and allies) nuclear arsenal plays the role of Gort, the robot policeman who enforces a "no nuclear war" policy by promising to obliterate any planet (country, in this case) that uses nukes.

    And if you recall the movie, Klaatu even has good health care.

    [ Parent ]

    I love that movie ... (5.00 / 1) (#205)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:59:35 AM EST
    you know there's a remake in production with Keanu as Klaatu.

    "Gort! Klaatu barada nikto!"

    [ Parent ]

    Too many syllables (none / 0) (#223)
    by jondee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 11:18:04 AM EST
    for a Chuck Norris movie; he'd never be associated with that kind of liberal, elitist Languagee.

    [ Parent ]
    I think it is the opposite (none / 0) (#5)
    by proto on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:01:49 AM EST
    You see it is the neocons and the Bush Administration that has rejected deterrence theory against Iran.

    Bush and friends threaten to destroy/attack Iran pretty much every time the subject comes up. They are all about the threat.

    This is Clinton trying her best to join the "Bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" club. She won't beat McCain at that game, not without losing her base.

    Her base? (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:03:28 AM EST
    Seems to me that the reflexive and uninformed peaceniks are for Obama. Notice how has hasn't used the line about not being against all wars, just dumb ones, recently.

    [ Parent ]
    Did you even read the post? (5.00 / 5) (#7)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:05:24 AM EST
    Because it's quite clear that's the exact opposite of what she's proposing.  So you can repeat the Obama campaign meme making HRC the same as McCain. You'll still be wrong.

    [ Parent ]
    You do not think obviously (5.00 / 4) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:07:43 AM EST
    The rationale the Bush Administration and Neocons give for attacking Iran is that deterrence will not work against them as they are irrational strategic players. Rejecting deterrence, as you and Bush do, leads to the need to act PREEMTPTIVELY.

    You, Bush and Stoller argue (you and Stoller unwittingly I assume) for preemptive war.

    It is startling to see it. But predictable in some ways.

    [ Parent ]

    Yup (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:09:04 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    you seem too project (none / 0) (#15)
    by proto on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:14:26 AM EST
    a lot of opinions on others.

    I guess their own thoughts don't fit into your narative well enough.

    [ Parent ]

    Projecting? (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:15:30 AM EST
    I read your comment.

    What did I get wrong about your comment?

    [ Parent ]

    she's clearly outlining a retaliatory (none / 0) (#144)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:18:29 AM EST
    startegy not a premetive or preventative strategy.

    [ Parent ]
    Threat of retaliation (none / 0) (#156)
    by Edgar08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:26:06 AM EST
    Is prevantative.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually, you assumed he understood the logical (none / 0) (#159)
    by Radix on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:27:30 AM EST
    consequences of his argument. If you had approached it from the stand point of he's just repeating the talking points, you would have done better, IMO.

    Because there are no facts, there is no truth, Just data to be manipulated

    Don Henley-The Garden of Allah


    [ Parent ]

    I have no problem with the (none / 0) (#201)
    by Same As It Ever Was on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:57:05 AM EST
    concept of applying deterrence theory in the Middle East (though I think the threat posed by Iran is greatly overstated).  My reservations with it are that the Middle East is not Western Europe.  We have a long diplomatic road to hoe before we reach a point where are relationships in that part of the world are reliable enough to form the sort of partnership needed for effective deterrence.  Moreover, the expanded presence in the region that would be required would tend to further radicalize segments of the populations of our allies.

    I'd like to hear more about Clinton's plans in this regard because they are potentially visionary.

    That said, the "obliterate" comment was a remarkably stupid response to a hypothetical question that should not have been seriously answered.

    [ Parent ]

    No, she won't, (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by pie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:09:44 AM EST
    but that's not the game she wants to play.

    "Walk softly, and carry a big stick" has worked for a long time, certainly during the Cold War.

    Pre-emptive strikes, not so much.

    I love it when people insist she'll attack Iran, when she's promised to get out of Iraq.  

    That sure makes a lot of sense.  /sarcasm

    [ Parent ]

    It's Even Better (5.00 / 2) (#49)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:36:37 AM EST
    When every single hypothetical that she's responded to had as its premise a nuclear attack on Israel.  Tell me how the United States avoids a war when there's a nuclear attack on Israel (or almost anywhere for that matter)?  She's not talking about using force to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons, she's talking about responding with force if Iran uses nuclear weapons.  WTF?

    Oh, and if that's really their position, then they are deluding themselves about Obama.  He's repeatedly said he would take no option - including by inference bombing Iran - to keep Iran from getting or using nuclear weapons.  He's also called any attack on Israel an attack on one of the U.S.'s strongest allies and said he would respond accordingly.  What do people think he means when he says that, they'll get a stern talking, too?  (see here)

    [ Parent ]

    When Obama speaks like that (5.00 / 1) (#167)
    by Radix on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:30:59 AM EST
    he means everything and nothing. Obama is great at political double speak, you can infer whatever makes you happy.

    Because there are no facts, there is no truth, Just data to be manipulated

    Don Henley-The Garden of Allah


    [ Parent ]

    I think you don't allow any incoming info (5.00 / 4) (#17)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:15:18 AM EST
    that conflicts with your beliefs - primarily based on Hillary-hate.
    And most likely, many Obama supporters have previously accused Bushies of allowing hate for Dems to surpass critical thought.


    [ Parent ]
    Let me clarify who is in the bomb (none / 0) (#20)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:23:16 AM EST
    bomb Iran crowd


    [ Parent ]
    sorry hit wrong button (none / 0) (#24)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:24:44 AM EST
    Not her base (none / 0) (#25)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:25:12 AM EST
    HRC is simply following a very old policy established in the 70s by Truman.  It's been a policy that Carter tried to change, but without success.  Bill Clinton tried to change it too. It's like it used to be with the Russians, that policy could not be changed.  All politicians had to be belligerent because Americans had been given too much propaganda that the Russians were evil since before 1917. There was little room for negotiations. It's unfortunate, but until Americans become more enlightened on the Middle East issues, politicians will continue the same path.

    [ Parent ]
    Gosh (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:38:18 AM EST
    Try telling Eastern Europe there was nothing evil about the Soviets.  How many of the people who were occupied or dominated by the USSR want to go back to Communism?

    Maybe you could be more clear about what specific aspect of foreign policy you disagree with.  I have no issues with Harry Truman's foreign policy whatsoever.  It was a difficult world and he set us on a course to meet those challenges.

    [ Parent ]

    In the 70s by Truman? (none / 0) (#40)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:31:57 AM EST
    riiight.

    [ Parent ]
    No insulting commenters please (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:13:36 AM EST


    Hasn't it occurred to anybody (none / 0) (#21)
    by dianem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:23:38 AM EST
    ...that if Israel gets nuked, then 1) they will probably not be in a good position to retaliate and 2) it will precipitate a full scale nuclear war in the middle east? Israel is not that big. It would not be that difficult to set off enough bombs to completely incapacitate them. And it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will trust Israel to defend it from attack by Iran.

    I must have missed something (none / 0) (#26)
    by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:25:22 AM EST
    while sleeping on the west coast.

    When did Hillary use the words 'totally obliterate them'?

    On ABC this morning (none / 0) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:27:03 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Out of Context (none / 0) (#34)
    by themomcat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:30:02 AM EST
    This is an out of context quote from her interview on "Countdown" last night. She was addressing a hypothetical question from Olberman about a nuclear attack by Iran on Israel. She was explaining to him the policy of deterrence.
    / "By the pricking of my thumbs, something wicked this way comes." Macbeth, Wm. Shakespeare
    [ Parent ]
    On ABC this morning (none / 0) (#52)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:37:49 AM EST
    She said nothing like this on Countdown last night.

    It is certainly being used out of context.

    [ Parent ]

    No But Keith Kindly Rephrased It (5.00 / 1) (#153)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:22:31 AM EST
    as saying Clinton would annihilate Iran and implying that was crazy.  That's when I knew these would be the talking points for today.  Hillary is a crazy warmonger just like John McCain.  Because that's not destructive to the party or its chances in November, at all.

    [ Parent ]
    Clarification (none / 0) (#117)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:05:34 AM EST
    will be forthcoming.  More air time for her.  

    BTW, Zolgby now shows her up by 10 points.

    [ Parent ]

    That's The Spin (none / 0) (#71)
    by flashman on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:45:23 AM EST
    IMO you won't hear anything from Obama (none / 0) (#36)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:30:18 AM EST
    directly remember he was the one who was for preemptive missile attacks on Iran and Pakistan.

    No (none / 0) (#38)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:31:04 AM EST
    Obama argued for attacking Al Qaida in Pakistan if Musharraf would not do so.

    He was right.

    [ Parent ]

    BTD any missile attack inside Pakistan (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:35:18 AM EST
    would still be a preemptive attack on Pakistan no matter how we sugar coat it..  That is my opinion you are entitled to yours.

    [ Parent ]
    A preemptive strike on Al Qaida you mean (none / 0) (#51)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:36:48 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    How do we differentiate we have not been too (none / 0) (#57)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:40:09 AM EST
    successful with the drones so far.  And IMO when we take the Imperial view that we can make preemptive attacks of any kind inside another country's sovereign space we are just perpetuating the neo-con strategies.

    [ Parent ]
    Not really (none / 0) (#59)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:40:57 AM EST
    Pakistani sovereignty over the places where al-Qaeda hangs out is pretty nominal.  It's not the same as someone firing missiles into Virginia.

    The dilemma is created by the fact that Pakistan doesn't have enough control over the region to eject al-Qaeda, but does have enough control to tell other nations to butt out.  Unless we're prepared to grant a safe zone to the architects of 9/11, we have to solve that dilemma somehow.

    [ Parent ]

    what would you suggest more preemptive war (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:46:24 AM EST
    strategies?  That is what we did with Afghanistan. And if we do it in Pakistan were next?  I has not succeeded in Afghanistan where we continue to battle the Taliban  and Al-queada still has it's foothold.  Of course we could always nuke them all I bet the RW nuts would love that idea.

    [ Parent ]
    Well (none / 0) (#86)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:52:23 AM EST
    I completely disagree that Afghanistan was a preemptive war.  Not only was it appropriate as retaliation for 9/11, but the concept of "preemptive war" has never been considered to encompass imminent threats.  The reason Iraq was a preemptive war is that Saddam didn't pose an imminent threat.

    [ Parent ]
    And Afghanistan was an Imminent threat (5.00 / 1) (#106)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:59:32 AM EST
    That would be like saying that because Al-queda has camps in Pakistan that country too is an imminent threat.  Sorry I don't buy that our attack on Al-queda camps in the 90's were retaliatory what we did in Afghanistan was attack the Government of a sovereign country because of their inability to control al-queda that would now give us the excuse to attack Pakistan if we use that logic.  Afghanistan is a feel good war to make people feel like we we are doing something about 9/11.  Reality check it was Al-queda not the Taliban who attacked NY in 9/11/2001.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes (none / 0) (#114)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:04:35 AM EST
    And it was the Taliban who gave al-Qaeda safe harbor both before and after 9/11.  I'd appreciate it if you didn't talk to me like I'm an idiot.

    Find me any reputable source which claims that Afghanistan was a preemptive war.

    [ Parent ]

    And you do have a point on my use of preemptive and using Afghanistan in the same sentence.  But it still does not justify our attack on a Nation because they can not control Al-queda, they did not have a strong army you realize, unless you want to say that we are then justified in attacking Pakistan who has been unable to stop Al-queda.

    [ Parent ]
    Well (none / 0) (#190)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:48:36 AM EST
    Afghanistan was an easy case in my opinion.  The Taliban actually did have the power to turn bin Laden over to us, but they refused to.  That's different from Musharraf, who doesn't seem to have the wherewithal to get bin Laden.

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe your right and they did. (none / 0) (#197)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:52:44 AM EST
    But I don't think they had the military power or control to be able to do it.  That of course is a personal opinion not based on numbers.  Personally I would have liked us to just attack the Al-queda Camps I doubt the Taliban would have done anything to stop us.

    [ Parent ]
    BTW one thing we can agree on is (none / 0) (#198)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:54:40 AM EST
    that attacking Iraq sure has prevented us in attaining any of the set goals in Afghanistan.

    [ Parent ]
    Are You Not Making A Distinction? (none / 0) (#66)
    by flashman on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:43:01 AM EST
    Between a surgical strike to take out Al Qaeda and a strike in general?  BTW, Pakistan is sheltering the murders of 9/11, while pretending to be an ally.  .  

    [ Parent ]
    Please define a Surgical Strike (none / 0) (#79)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:48:20 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Not Sure I Can (none / 0) (#146)
    by flashman on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:19:38 AM EST
    but I'll give an example... A Predator drone armed with a small ( ie Exorcet ) missile to kill an individual, IF he is determined to be an Al Qaeda leader.  The damaged is minimal zed to the immediate area of that individual.

    [ Parent ]
    We have been doing that already (none / 0) (#158)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:27:04 AM EST
    unfortunately it has not been too effective in deterring Al-queda activity.  Also the minimal damage claim is questionable.  When you use explosives it is hard to contain damage.  But my concern is more on the use of missile surgical strikes which we have no evidence are that accurate.  Claims to the contrary are later proven to be exaggerated by the military.  That pin-point accuracy looks good in the Discovery Channel but in reality is hard if not impossible to get.

    [ Parent ]
    In Pakistan? (none / 0) (#172)
    by flashman on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:34:18 AM EST
    I'm not aware of that.

    [ Parent ]