home

PA Predictions Open Thread

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:50:43 PM EST
Tags: (all tags)
Share This: Digg! StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit reddit

Ok, what do you folks think? Me, I am a believer in SUSA so, assigning undecideds, I go Clinton 54-46. How about you?

This is an Open thread.

I like Mark Halperin today. This is a fair assessment I think.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed.

< The Obama Expectations Game | Exit Polls: Thread One >

  • Premium Ads

  • Blog Ads

  • Contribute To TalkLeft

    donate to TalkLeft


    • Display: Sort:
    PA Predictions Open Thread | 225 comments (225 topical)
    as i posted yesterday (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by Turkana on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:51:51 PM EST
    clinton by 5-8. i still need to buy some d & d dice, though.

    I agree (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by PennProgressive on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:30:21 PM EST
    As I wrote a couple of days back, Clinton should win by 5 to 7. However, today there is a lot of excitement here. I will not be surprised if she wins by double digit. I will be surprised but very happy.
    As for the expectations game, since Obama's leftover breakfast from Scranton is getting great bid on e-bay, how can you underestimate him? Given that he outspent Clinton 3-1, may be more and that he will continue to outspend her in the remaining primaries, I think any win by Obama anywhere in the remaining primaries by a margin less than 20 points should be viewed as a resounding loss.

    [ Parent ]
    the bid went back to .99 cents on Ebay (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:33:47 PM EST
    omen?

    [ Parent ]
    I'ts gone (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:41:01 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    The bid went back to .99 (5.00 / 2) (#97)
    by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:41:11 PM EST
    as soon as the update was posted where is was clear the Obama fanatics were e-mailing them. the update apologized for using Obama's middle name and went on to say that the proceeds would be split between Hillary and the DNC because of all the attention.

    [ Parent ]
    Regardless of HRC's margin of victory (5.00 / 1) (#130)
    by myiq2xu on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:53:33 PM EST
    please keep in mind that the Oborg will be very upset.

    So all Hillary supporters should keep that in mind when we rub their faces in it.

    Just a suggestion.

    [ Parent ]

    Or we can be better (5.00 / 3) (#144)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:59:12 PM EST
    And NOT rub their faces, teach by example.

    [ Parent ]
    I'll resist the tempation to be a concern troll. (none / 0) (#163)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:09:58 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    There's always NC & IN &... n/t (none / 0) (#137)
    by Fabian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:55:24 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    dice (none / 0) (#178)
    by Nasarius on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:17:12 PM EST
    My 1d20 roll came up 11, so I'll go with that.

    </nerd>

    [ Parent ]

    Ouch Ouch (none / 0) (#182)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:18:33 PM EST
    I fell on my ten sided dice!

    [ Parent ]
    I don't see Obama breaking 45 --> Clinton 55-45 (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by barryluda on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:51:54 PM EST


    Predict (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:54:23 PM EST
    I think she'll hit 10.

    I'll see your 10 (5.00 / 4) (#7)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:56:56 PM EST
    And raise you to 13. I don't why I am saying this...

    [ Parent ]
    I'll raise you to 16 (5.00 / 3) (#49)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:16:53 PM EST
    and equally, I don't know why. :-)

    Were I to be conservative, I'd go with 12.

    Obama's had a horrible week, and 10 million people saw that debate.

    Nahhhh. Better make it 16.

    [ Parent ]

    I felt a shiver... (5.00 / 3) (#81)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:33:40 PM EST
    ...going up my leg... ;)

    [ Parent ]
    but, but, but ABC was all WRONG! (5.00 / 1) (#161)
    by Josey on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:08:09 PM EST
    >>>>Obama's had a horrible week, and 10 million people saw that debate.

    to give Obama an opportunity to explain and resolve any misinformation about his association with anti-America types.
    Only rightwing talk radio has the right to hammer Obama daily over these associates!
    And Dems wonder why they lose.....

    [ Parent ]

    and one more (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by myiq2xu on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:16:59 PM EST
    57-43

    [ Parent ]
    If you really want to live dangerously (5.00 / 3) (#116)
    by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:46:51 PM EST
    pledge to contribute some multiple of every percentage point in the spread.  That's what some folks on Confluenceare doing.

    My own prediction is 57-43.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm close to you (5.00 / 1) (#190)
    by jen on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:22:08 PM EST
    My little paper says Hillary 61%/ O!bama 39%. (That would be my little piece of paper I wrote the results on the other day. It is so!)


    [ Parent ]
    I'm being conservative ... (5.00 / 4) (#4)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:54:42 PM EST
    56-43.  Think the spread could be larger.

    56-42 (5.00 / 3) (#5)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:55:33 PM EST


    okay, I'll play (5.00 / 3) (#6)
    by ccpup on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:55:45 PM EST
    It'll be Clinton 57 to Obama's 44

    But they won't call it until sometime between 11 and 11:30 Eastern even though it's obvious it's a decisive win for Hillary.

    101% (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by hopeyfix on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:00:30 PM EST
    It would be awesome, but even with Obama's twist, I don't see how that would happen ;)

    [ Parent ]
    ummm (none / 0) (#66)
    by coolit on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:25:01 PM EST
    I have to admit, I don't know how we could see 57-44.  Are we talking about over than 100% of the population?

    But i like the thought though.  If she won by 14 that would be considered a rout.

    [ Parent ]

    The extra 1% is from (5.00 / 9) (#118)
    by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:47:36 PM EST
    the dead people coming over from Chicago to vote.

    [ Parent ]
    LOL! (5.00 / 2) (#121)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:48:48 PM EST
    Almost spit out my cookie! :-)

    [ Parent ]
    oops (none / 0) (#76)
    by ccpup on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:30:11 PM EST
    I meant to type 43, but hit 44 instead.

    So, either 56-42 or 57-43

    [ Parent ]

    Clinton by 12 (5.00 / 3) (#8)
    by magster on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:56:59 PM EST
    I've heard of tapering A-A turnout since this am on MSNBC, and read of high turnout all over the state on the NYT blog.

    Offset by Hispanic issues (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:40:32 PM EST
    there are language barriers so they are having some difficulty.  The situation is being monitored.  So the hispanic depression will offset the AA depression.  :)

    [ Parent ]
    Clinton by 12 (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by DaytonDem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:58:50 PM EST
    and btw the cw will be...wait for it...it wasn't enough. They will bleat about the math.

    I'm hoping (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by barba on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:59:20 PM EST
    at least 12, predicting 9.  

    BTD, I know it's slight off topic, but hope you will be posting your thoughts on NC latest polling soon. So enjoy all your poll analysis.  PPP has BO up by 25, polled  something like 36 or 39 AA....thought this was as bizarre as all their other polls.  

    Sure (none / 0) (#18)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:00:55 PM EST
    And Obama is expected to win big in NC, so when he does (even if it doesn't meet expectations), we will  hear more calls of "Hillary Drop Out!"

    [ Parent ]
    I will be stunned if he wins (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by barba on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:20:05 PM EST
    big in NC.  Have you noticed how you hear all these surrogates calling for the end of the contest every time you get close to a vote.  It will be interesting to see how vocal they get prior to NC, very telling I think.

    [ Parent ]
    I heard a rumor (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:59:47 PM EST
    Well, I read it at No Quarter and HE heard it from someone. But any of our PA voters see this or hear of this?

    "The Obama people are handing out official Democratic party literature with Obama stickers stuck inside telling people that the democratic party has endorsed Obama.

    HERE IS HRC's LEGAL HOTLINE: 877-472-9460"

    ======

    Could it be true?

    If this is true (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:22:07 PM EST
    and I don't think it is, Axelrove has hit rock bottom.

    I'd need a lot more than a rumor to believe it, though. ;-)

    [ Parent ]

    Me too (none / 0) (#68)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:25:40 PM EST
    Just putting out feelers because at this point, nothing would surprise me!  :)

    [ Parent ]
    Well, hopefully (5.00 / 2) (#123)
    by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:50:03 PM EST
    someone is checking it out.

    I wonder why the Democratic primary is continuing if the Democratic Party has already chosen its candidate?

    [ Parent ]

    Because the voters (5.00 / 3) (#129)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:53:01 PM EST
    haven't made up their minds yet! :-)

    I think the Party elite have chosen Obama, however, although that doesn't excuse Obama's alleged behavior if true. Allegedly.

    [ Parent ]

    and why not (none / 0) (#22)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:02:29 PM EST
    a clever trick.

    [ Parent ]
    Keeping the faith on double digits (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by davnee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:00:48 PM EST
    Clinton 55-45.  But I'd be unsurprised by anything between 6 and 15.  If she blows past 15 then I'm putting her in the driver's seat for the nomination.

    But no matter what, how does PA impact the SDs? (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by barryluda on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:00:51 PM EST
    Since getting the most delegates doesn't mean a victory, but rather the one who gets 2,214 wins, PA and the rest of the primary states will matter mostly in terms of how they influence the SDs.  Similarly, whatever either campaign says now is aimed at the SDs so any question as to whether or not the talking point BTD emphasized in his prior post was a mistake needs to be asked in that context.

    The SDs will, I'd think, look at one or some combination of the following questions:

    (1) Who helps them -- politically, personally and locally -- the most?

    (2) Who wins the most delegates?

    (3) Who wins the popular vote (this will take on various shades of grey depending on how you count it)?

    (4) Who stands the best chance of winning vs. McCain (#2 and especially #3 will help inform this)?

    (5)  Which would make the best POTUS?

    It's not surprising to hear Obama's campaign trying to deemphasize one that might end up hurting him.  I'd expect Obama to do everything to emphasize #2 and Clinton to do everything to emphasize #4, which is a bit tricky since she has to both convince the SDs that that's the most important of the five, and also that Clinton has the best chance of beating McCain.  On that point, Jeralyn helped further the debate on electability with her excellent analysis of Why Hillary Is More Likely to Beat McCain.  But I'm still thinking through whether I agree with William Arnone's premise so critical to Jeralyn's analysis:

    The winner of the popular vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in each of these key states will have a higher likelihood of carrying that state in November.
    I agree (none / 0) (#58)
    by phat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:21:07 PM EST
    #1 is most definitely the 1st consideration for the majority of the superdelegates.

    phat

    [ Parent ]

    do we know (5.00 / 5) (#98)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:41:35 PM EST
    how many sd's are not elected officials?

    (phone banking for our girl went great today!  LOTS of Clinton supporters, lots of folks who said they already voted for her, one really, really nasty Obama supporter who called me a white b*tch and slammed down the phone and one very cranky Clinton supporter who told me to stop f-ing calling, or she was going to go back to the polls and change her vote.)

    [ Parent ]

    It's not so much elected officials or not. (none / 0) (#128)
    by phat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:52:58 PM EST
    What it is is anybody who is in a party leadership position is looking to maximize their "value" to the local parties. If the superdelegates eventually give the nomination to Obama and him being on the top of the ticket is believed to help with downticket gains, they look good.

    The conventional wisdom is that Obama helps downticket races more than Clinton.

    Furthermore, with the race so close, any bandwagon is a gamble. If you make the wrong pick you get shut out by the eventual nominee. If you have no influence or insider advantage, well, that sucks.

    Other considerations are, unfortunately, distant seconds or thirds.

    phat

    [ Parent ]

    Which is not "factually correct" (5.00 / 1) (#157)
    by Regency on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:06:38 PM EST
    Polls have shown that consistently more Clinton supporters even bother to vote downticket than Obama supporters. That's just the truth.

    [ Parent ]
    Polls have shown that? (none / 0) (#197)
    by andrys on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:25:49 PM EST
      I saw a TV news story that in Texas, it was reported that they found that young voters were more likely to mark only the top, presidential options and ignored the rest of the ballot.

      I don't remember how they knew that.  Maybe in caucuses where the votes are public?   I didn't get the impression it was from exit polling, but it might have been.  

      That would be an important factor because the DNC has felt that new Obama supporters would help the down-ticket.  

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, elected officials matter, because (5.00 / 1) (#168)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:12:33 PM EST
    we can get back at them at the ballot box.  I personally plan to do so for their behaviors this primary, acting as if they speak and act for me in the national primary just because I put them in state offices.  I can put 'em out again -- or at least try. :-)

    And I can work darn hard for others who comported themselves appropriately as Dem party leaders.

    [ Parent ]

    Unelected SD's (none / 0) (#145)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:59:50 PM EST
    You can check out all the SD's

    HERE

    [ Parent ]

    55% to 45% (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:01:11 PM EST
    Now lemme see.

    Open thread and evil thought.  

    $120 per barrel. Was blood for oil a GOOD reason to invade Iraq?  

    War for pillage and plunder certainly sounds more justifiable than war for a nebulous struggle for shiite and Kurdish liberty.  I ask this because Gore vidal suggested that a bit of pillaging was  perfectly acceptable reason to invade some benighted corner of the globe in his Perpetual War book.

    Well, if high oil prices actually had (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:09:40 PM EST
    the proper impact on policy, one might perversely say yes. We need higher oil prices to spur development of alternative resources, in theory.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh. (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:26:00 PM EST
    I would rather have taken the Jimmy Carter option in 1978. Solar panels on the White House, baby, and very little dependence on foreign oil.

    30 years later, and we're stuck with a retarded oil-drinking chimp who is defecating all over the Oval Office.

    Lord, we elect some shortsighted schmucks in this country.**

    **technically, the Deciderer was not elected in 2000 and the election was stolen in 2004 IMHO. but those idiotic Republican congressmen...

    [ Parent ]

    ROFL (none / 0) (#126)
    by litigatormom on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:51:16 PM EST
    a retarded oil-drinking chimp who is defecating all over the Oval Office

    You should copyright this immediately.

    [ Parent ]

    Feh (none / 0) (#131)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:53:33 PM EST
    and have Cheney come after him?  Not worth it.

    [ Parent ]
    woops (none / 0) (#139)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:56:03 PM EST
    her!  I am a total maroon today.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh! No worries, O Mistress of Snark. :-) (none / 0) (#143)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:58:56 PM EST
    I've already said something very like it on my blog. If Cheney hasn't come after me after my antics during the Deciderer's administration, he's not gonna now.

    [ Parent ]
    Why? Are you afraid (none / 0) (#138)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:55:29 PM EST
    Obama will Xerox it?

    (sorry. Bad madamab! Bad!)

    [ Parent ]

    Snark goddesses, both of you (none / 0) (#172)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:13:55 PM EST
    C'mon, keep it up -- your fans are watching!

    [ Parent ]
    haha (none / 0) (#69)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:25:57 PM EST
    yes it drove up the price a little.  

    Or would it have cost even more with Iraq embargoed?

    [ Parent ]

    well, we haven't ... (none / 0) (#33)
    by narius on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:09:40 PM EST
    got any significant oil out of iraq yet. So far it is all costs and no payoff.

    If the price per barrel is knocked down to say $25 because of oil we "pillaged" from Iraq, I bet there will be a lot less objection to the war (although probably not from the group on this forum though).

    [ Parent ]

    I guess by 12-14 (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by annabelly on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:01:45 PM EST
    The undecideds are still high, and they tend to break for her, especially in this demographic pool.

    I am still holding out for 60-40..hehehe. (5.00 / 4) (#21)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:02:08 PM EST
    And Obama didn't help matters much by going on to Indiana so fast, on voting day no less. Hillary is still in PA, showing she cares about their votes. It's not going to help Obama get the undecideds when he goes off to the next state and his campaign basically says they don't matter. Oh yeah, way to win their hearts and minds, Obama!!! Now he has to convince the Indiana voters that his campaign said those things and it's not what HE thinks of them. Good luck..LOL

    I assume he's go internals that show (5.00 / 2) (#24)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:04:29 PM EST
    a thumping. No cross over GOP are going to vote for him after Wright and The cling commments.

    he's definitely lost part of his Iowa coalition.

    [ Parent ]

    why not? (none / 0) (#38)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:10:56 PM EST
    The really sick GOP crossovers would be crazy enough to vote for him anyway, thinking he'd be easier to beat vs McCain.  But let me re-iterate, they'd have to be among the really crazy ones to risk that much.  Obama stands for almost everything they hate in a Democratic candidate so they'd have to be really crazy.   Did I mention crazy?  Yea because, on a related note... not even Ann Coulter is willing to go that far.  She has endorsed Hillary Clinton. eek.

    [ Parent ]
    Michael Moore cancels out Ann Coulter (none / 0) (#176)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:15:57 PM EST
    in the "eek endorsement" category, apparently.  But why Obama is running from Moore, I'm not sure -- must be because he is anathema to Republicans, whose votes Obama has been cultivating?

    [ Parent ]
    Ah, but Michael Moore really means it (none / 0) (#193)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:22:53 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I'm holding out with you! (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by angie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:08:07 PM EST
    I will die happy if this happens. (notice I'm not writing the actual numbers myself -- don't want to jinx it).  

    [ Parent ]
    you can never go wrong underestimating (none / 0) (#44)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:13:51 PM EST
    It's a lot less stressful... watch me do it:

    My updated prediction is that Obama wins tonight
    64% to 22% and Gravel surprises with 4%

    [ Parent ]

    oops, doesn't add up (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:14:39 PM EST
    Ok the rest of the vote goes to Spongebob Squarepants.

    [ Parent ]
    Feel the Gravelmania! :-) (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:33:33 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Clinton! (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by BRockNYLA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:06:27 PM EST
    56/44

    After all the time and money spent by Obama there in PA this result will speak volumes.

    Turnout in my precinct is "high" (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Makarov on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:07:28 PM EST
    and I'm predicting Clinton 56-44.  

    By 1pm today, 270 had voted in my precinct.  Total votes in 2006 November election were 821.  For comparison, my precinct (in Northampton Township - a rather affluent area near Newtown and Richboro) went for Casey over Santorum by 514-297 and Murphy (who won by just 1500 votes overall) over Fitzpatrick (Rep. Freshman Congressman) by 457-364.

    Since the Rep ballot is meaningless (only ballot choice is for President, with Paul and one or two other Reps on it with McCain) as all downticket Republican races are unopposed, the vast majority of those 270 votes are for the Democratic primary.

    The heaviest voting times in my precinct are between 5 and 7pm.

    OK, out on a limb, but ... (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:08:32 PM EST
    Clinton by 11, 55% - 44%, with one percent spinning its wheels in indecision.

    Clinton by 11.5-13% Points (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Dan the Man on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:09:53 PM EST
    AA's (16% of votes):  Obama 87 Clinton 13
    Whites's (80% of votes):  Obama 35 Clinton 65

    Splitting the rest and giving me some margin of error, I get 11.5-13% points.

    I'm Clinton SUSA lead plus 5 for the Rendell (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by Salt on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:10:43 PM EST
    machine and the relentless Ads that portray him  as we see him So 10-13 range.

    I am at 12+. (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Marco21 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:11:18 PM EST
    Like other posters, I am not sure why. I just feel it's going to be a beat-down. Obama is in Indiana tonight, so I am guessing his internal polling isn't going too well today.

    I predicted a beating in Ohio and Cali, too.

    Just sayin'.

     

    I think she wins with bigger (5.00 / 3) (#42)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:12:35 PM EST
    margins than OH. I think this will be a rout.

    [ Parent ]
    I think so too (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:18:30 PM EST
    #1 - Obama couldn't wait to skedaddle out of PA.  

    #2 - that statement by his campaign that BTD posted sounded very much like a concession.

    They must know that he doesn't stand a chance of winning, which to me spells a double-digit victory for Hillary.  If the difference was just 5 or 6 points, I think they'd have an entirely different attitude.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama out of PA (none / 0) (#91)
    by Davidson on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:37:14 PM EST
    I don't think it's because he thinks he'll do poorly, but rather because he's planning on killing her elsewhere with his ever-increasing money advantage.  The one thing I never underestimate Obama for is his ruthlessness and sheer drive.

    The man doesn't "hope" for things to go well; he does whatever he can to make sure they do.

    [ Parent ]

    You mean he will do anything to win? (5.00 / 3) (#107)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:43:59 PM EST
    Where have I heard that before.

    [ Parent ]
    I think it's precisely because (5.00 / 3) (#109)
    by rooge04 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:44:53 PM EST
    he knows he's going to lose HUGE.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree (5.00 / 1) (#203)
    by stillife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:28:18 PM EST
    It's two weeks till the IN and NC primaries.  Since to know Obama is to love him, he's got plenty of time to campaign in those states.  He should be able to spend one more night in PA.  This tells me that his campaign's internal polls must be looking bad.  

    It's not good strategy for the general, either.  His precipitous departure make it seem like he's doing a Wham Bam Thank You Ma'am to a very important swing state.  Reminds me of the video Jeralyn posted last night, "Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow?"  

    [ Parent ]

    11- It is a lucky number (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by BarnBabe on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:18:04 PM EST
    22 would be better. And 8 is for success. So I like 55-44. I am so glad that we are getting to the slow time of the year in my industry. Otherwise, no TL during the day.

    To be honest, I"m waffling on this one. (5.00 / 4) (#71)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:26:28 PM EST
    I hope Obama is squashed like a pancake though.

    If it turns out as we "hope," (5.00 / 1) (#79)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:32:33 PM EST
    Obama will be clinging to his religion as a way to explain his economic frustrations!

    "I spent HOW MUCH in PA??? $&!)(&$^(!!!!"

    [ Parent ]

    Clinton by 4-8 (5.00 / 3) (#78)
    by Davidson on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:30:43 PM EST
    Although, I wish it was by 10-15.  That latest SUSA poll (Clinton by 6) was such a kick to the gut and I think huge AA numbers will be key to holding her to single digits.

    I'm just preparing myself for her exit.  I hate this.  With her goes our chances in November, no question.

    Well from 2006 census numbers (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:46:49 PM EST
    LINK

    AA's only make of 10.7% of the total population of PA. I'm sure they make up a greater percentage of the registered Dems, but my guess is around 18% of registered Dems are AA.

    Don't know if it means anything, but I'm trying to make you feel better! :)

    [ Parent ]

    The way to feel better (5.00 / 1) (#187)
    by Davidson on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:20:40 PM EST
    Take to drink!  I began drinking at lunch here PST in anticipation of bad news (Just for today!  Not since college have I done this).  My friends and I all plan on drinking ourselves stupid today, which shouldn't be too hard considering we're all "low-information" Clinton voters.*

    What did I have for lunch you ask?  Why, waffles of course.  A whole stack of them.

    *Translation: pay no attention to the fact we're all twentysomethings with grad school degrees.  We're dumb as dirt--and racists to boot!

    [ Parent ]

    Oh, and thank you for trying (none / 0) (#192)
    by Davidson on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:22:21 PM EST
    We'll see in a couple hours what awaits us in November: a Clinton contest or an Obama disaster.

    [ Parent ]
    Fingers, toes and eyes crossed! (none / 0) (#206)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:30:05 PM EST
    But what do I know - I, too, am one of those low information voters with advanced degrees!  Have a couple of drinks for me!  :)

    [ Parent ]
    Polling is so all over the place, and (none / 0) (#220)
    by andrys on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:54:13 PM EST
    ...and one surprise in Texas was that the turnout of the black vote was estimated by pollers to be higher than last election-primary but it was a smaller turnout.  There was more intensity of feeling but a smaller percentage for some reason.

       In the InsiderAdvantage poll report for 4/21, the pdf document of the demographics breakdown showed Clinton getting about 25% of the black vote while Obama was getting 33% of the white vote, with undecideds in both blocs of course.  The male vote, overall, was breaking her way.

       
    Today, that poll narrowed the margin     though from 10 to today's 7.  

       Now it shows Clinton getting only 21% of the black vote while Obama is getting 34% of the white vote.  With the younger vote (18-29), they were only 1% point apart yesterday but today Obama is 6% ahead of Clinton there (with a few less people polled).

     

    [ Parent ]

    It's amazing (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by phat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:33:57 PM EST
    A 3:1 spending advantage and 6 weeks of campaigning and if he loses by fewer than 10 points it's not a drubbing?

    Amazing.

    phat

    Now, now (5.00 / 2) (#151)
    by cawaltz on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:03:07 PM EST
    Drink your kool aid. In Unityland, where everyone gets a pony, if you lose by margins greater than 5 it is still a WIN. They were actually selling this as well on Air America yesterday (Shaking head at the lack of logic that some display).

    [ Parent ]
    CNN just said it has to be 20 pts (5.00 / 1) (#184)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:19:05 PM EST
    in Clinton's favor for her to somehow crawl out of this morass inflicted on us all. . . .

    It wasn't Wolfie, it was Borger, maybe?  Someone on tape doing a stoopid conjecture.  Pffft, the fools.

    [ Parent ]

    The ever-moving goal posts. (5.00 / 1) (#191)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:22:14 PM EST
    They must see a big HRC win tonight. They are scared that their fave will not be able to go the distance...

    [ Parent ]
    Gift time (5.00 / 4) (#86)
    by NYMARJ on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:35:06 PM EST
    No projections from me - but today is my birthday and I want a BIG gift - GO HILLARY.

    HBD! Hope your (5.00 / 3) (#101)
    by barba on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:42:21 PM EST
    dreams come true for a big BD present.

    [ Parent ]
    Ok, here's a more interesting question: (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:40:23 PM EST
    What level of Clinton win will lead to Orangistanians claiming that Hillary cheated?

    Spelling correction (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:42:14 PM EST
    OrangUstan. My spelling more fits the mentality at times.

    [ Parent ]
    just cheated? (5.00 / 4) (#119)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:47:39 PM EST
    There are many other reasons for Obama victories/defeats they will trot out.  We've heard of the WORM, but there can be a new term for post-election explanations called the WORL. (why obama really lost)

    [ Parent ]
    0.1% win (none / 0) (#104)
    by barba on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:43:00 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    WRONG! It was a trick question: (5.00 / 6) (#106)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:43:55 PM EST
    She will be accused of cheating, win or loss.

    [ Parent ]
    In fact, I will bet that by 5 pm EDT (5.00 / 2) (#108)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:44:35 PM EST
    there will be a "wrecked" diary with claims of Clinton cheating.

    [ Parent ]
    Hmm.. apparently the "pre-blaming" (5.00 / 1) (#174)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:14:48 PM EST
    started already.
    I KNEW it

    [ Parent ]
    Omg, they started whining as soon as polls (5.00 / 1) (#189)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:21:20 PM EST
    opened, a new record.  (Btw, faithful readers and avoiders of orangeness, this link is not to that place, does not give it a hit. . . .)

    [ Parent ]
    Yet another prediction! (5.00 / 6) (#102)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:42:24 PM EST
    If Clinton wins in a big blowout, the media narrative will switch to the following:

    "Well, the Democratic Party once again shows it can't make up its mind. Looks like John McCain has a great chance to win in November!"

    You read it here first, people!

    Indeed (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:45:56 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    lol* (5.00 / 1) (#136)
    by AnninCA on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:55:07 PM EST
    Probably you're right about that.

    [ Parent ]
    I am thinking... (none / 0) (#199)
    by Marco21 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:26:18 PM EST
    "She was ahead by 26 points just a month ago and only won with with 20. She's toast and needs to drop out for the good of the party, America, Santa Claus..."

    [ Parent ]
    And John McCain! (none / 0) (#210)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:30:35 PM EST
    Seriously, if she wins by a blowout tonight, I think the corporate media will see the writing on the wall. They won't prop up Obama any more - they'll turn on him like the rabid wolves they are.

    They will go back to their first love...The Maverick.

    [sighs, flutters eyelashes]

    [ Parent ]

    Hoping for 12-15. Closer to 15 (5.00 / 1) (#110)
    by nycstray on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:45:06 PM EST
    because it hurts the 'we closed the gap' spin and those predictable lines. The farther in to dbl digits, the more it hurts O because of the effort and $$$ he dumped there.  I do NOT want to hear a 'we got close but, yada yada yada'.

    but hey, I'll take a 10 pointer or any win. A win is a win when he's had 6wks and out spent 3-1 in a big swing state.

    I think it will be single digits (5.00 / 2) (#113)
    by ajain on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:46:40 PM EST
    I feel like everytime we have these expectations we lose out.

    I am prepared for anything. I want a 65-35 race for Clinton, but I think it will be closer to 6-8 points.

    Pessimist here (5.00 / 2) (#117)
    by Jim J on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:47:06 PM EST
    HRC by three, as much as I'd hate to see that.

    I hope I'm as wrong as I always am about everything.

    I know what you mean (5.00 / 1) (#133)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:54:15 PM EST
    I am always afraid of jynxing things with these predictions, but then again I have to remember past results and it's been hit/miss for me.  I was correct about  Texas and California, but I underestimated Ohio (for Clinton) and underestimated Wisconsin (for Obama)

    For Pennsylvania, I've slightly lowered my expectations for Clinton, but trying my best to take emotion out of the trend watching.

    [ Parent ]

    We should have a thread that bets on the margin (5.00 / 1) (#125)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:50:20 PM EST
    and the loser to give Hillary! 100 bucks.

    55/45, or thereabouts. (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:52:38 PM EST


    thereabouts (none / 0) (#147)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:00:39 PM EST
    Zogby's motto.  It's really quite Zen if you think about it.  I'm on this Earth, or thereabouts.  I'm throwing darts at a board, or thereabouts.  I'm shilling for Obama, or thereabouts...

    I love it.

    [ Parent ]

    Clinton by 19 points: 59-40 (5.00 / 1) (#208)
    by Exeter on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:30:12 PM EST


    Writing it again (5.00 / 1) (#218)
    by jen on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:52:49 PM EST
    because the written word, spoken out loud is very powerful.

    Clinton 61%
    O!bama 49%

    Oops! (5.00 / 1) (#219)
    by jen on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 03:53:21 PM EST
    Try again:

    Clinton 61%
    O!bama 39%

    Happy days are here again... (5.00 / 1) (#226)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 08:06:25 PM EST
    tra..la..la...la..la!!!!!!!!!!

    10 point win for Hillary (4.00 / 2) (#9)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 01:58:26 PM EST
    A lot of hullaballoo about the win for a couple of days.  Then the delegate count will come out and it will turn out that Hillary only gained 10 delegates.  

    We will then move on to NC and IN

    Yea, Pennsylvania doesn't matter (5.00 / 7) (#28)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:08:04 PM EST
    we get it already.  Except that if Obama were to win Pennsylvania tonight it ends the primary and he's the nominee.

    But remember everyone, it doesn't matter.
    Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania.  Total non factors for the superdelegates.

    Our system of government will be renamed Mathocracy in honor of Obama supporters.

    [ Parent ]

    Meh (none / 0) (#48)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:16:43 PM EST
    I never said it didn't matter.   It matters as much as every other state, proportional to their population.

    All elections are based on math.  Sorry to break the news to you.

    The superdelegates can use whatever reasoning they want.  I don't much care.  

    [ Parent ]

    yes, superdeleate votes are part of the math (none / 0) (#64)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:24:29 PM EST
    as painful as that is for some to hear.

    [ Parent ]
    Sure (none / 0) (#85)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:34:25 PM EST
    And if Hillary does not gain any delegate ground she will need to gain nearly 80% of the remaining superdelegates in order to overtake Obama.  

    Barring a calamitous event, how exactly do you propose that Hillary will achieve that sort of overwhelming support?  

    The only way that will happen is if Pelosi and Reid back her which seems unlikely at this juncture.

    [ Parent ]

    Should Obama stop campaigning? (5.00 / 2) (#99)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:41:50 PM EST
    Let's talk a little about logic.

    Once again, I ask the key question:  If Obama is the inevitable, party supported nominee... why doesn't he just go back to Chicago, rest up for his fight against McCain and stop wasting millions of dollars on ads (like he did in Pennsylvania?)

    See, if the math is telling you that Clinton cannot overcome his lead then why spend money on ads at all?  Afraid she would win by 80% from here on out if he just stops playing ads?  Highly unlikely.

    [ Parent ]

    You're being obtuse (none / 0) (#112)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:46:35 PM EST
    An insurmountable lead is only insurmountable if the winning team continues to play on.

    Obama will continue to campaign because doing otherwise would be politically stupid and damaging.  

    Of course there is a chance that Hillary could still win the nomination.  But right now I would put that number at about 15-20%.  

    If she can somehow win in NC that could change things.  Obama would still have an advantage but it would be more like 60-40.  However I think it is very unlikely that she could win in NC.

    [ Parent ]

    Wow, way off on NC imo (none / 0) (#140)
    by diplomatic on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:57:47 PM EST
    If Hillary Clinton wins tonight and has the privilege of continuing on to Indiana, Kentucky, West Virgina, and North Carolina and then she WINS North Carolina (it's a safe bet to think she would have also then won the other states) and there is no way in the world she would not get the nomination at that point with Puerto Rico still to vote AND Florida and Michigan not resolved.

    But no worries, Obama is very likely to win North Carolina regardless of what happens anywhere else.

    [ Parent ]

    If she wins the popular vote (none / 0) (#114)
    by Democratic Cat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:46:43 PM EST
    Some of the declared superdelgates will switch to her and she might get the nomination. (So it's not 80% of the "remaining.") If she loses the poular vote, then she won't get the nomination. IMO.

    [ Parent ]
    OK (none / 0) (#132)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 02:54:08 PM EST