A radio segment I taped a few weeks ago on the newly passed Second Chance Act will air tonight at 6:00 pm ET on XM Satellite Radio Channel 169 -- the Power --it's also available now online at (The Urban Journal with Keith Murphy).

The channel is described as "Conversation about social, political, and economic issues from the African American perspective."

The actual audio of the segment is here. It starts about one minute in (after the intro music.)

Mr. Murphy is an excellent host and asked terrific questions.

mcjoan has the details:

So the question is, who's doing the tugging [on FISA capitulation] here, the frosh Blue Dogs or Hoyer? Obviously, the majority of the Blue Dog coalition can be controlled by leadership. They were back in March when only five of them defected on supporting the much better, telco amnesty-free House bill.

So why in the hell does this puny group of freshman concern trolls have a say in this at all? Why is Hoyer bending over backwards to find a "compromise" that will appease them?

Hoyer is doing what Hoyer wants to do. Do not kid yourself into thinking the Blue Dogs are forcing him to do anything.

The person who kidnapped Josh Marshall is at it again:

So why is it that when Howard Wolfson gets asked about Andrew's switching his endorsement from Clinton to Obama on MSNBC, he questions whether Andrews [sic] is really from Indiana. Why go there?

Are you freaking kidding me? This is the scandal of the day for Josh Marshall? Joe Andrew compares the Clintons to Rove and Lee Atwater and Marshall has the vapors because Wolfson mentioned in passing that Joe Andrew is a DC lawyer/lobbyist? Marshall has jumped the shark. Again.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

I'm on a lunch break from court but logged in and saw this sad news: Deborah Jeane Palfrey, the D.C. Madam, has taken her own life:

Local police responding to a call late Thursday morning discovered the woman's body in a storage shed to the side of the home, according to a statement released by the Tarpon Springs, Fla. Police. Hand-written notes were found nearby which "describes the victim's intention to take her life," according to the statement.

Palfrey was at her mother's mobile home in Florida. A note was found indicating her intent. Previously, she had vowed not to ever do another day in jail.

If you don't remember the details of her case,

A jury in Washington, D.C. found Palfrey guilty of money laundering, racketeering and using the mail for illegal purposes in connection with a prostitution ring she ran from 1993 to 2006.

R.I.P. Ms. Palfrey.

These are days of danger for the Obama nomination. Today he is the likely nominee. But what happens if next Tuesday he loses by 10 in Indiana and wins by 5 in North Carolina? Despite the decree from the now supposedly all important Joe Andrew, the race will continue. And what is up after Indiana and North Carolina? West Virginia on May 13. Clinton leads by 2-1.

On May 20, Kentucky and Oregon. Clinton leads by 36 in Kentucky and Obama leads in Oregon in the last polling there. Will he still on May 20? Oregon will become Obama's firewall. His must win I think. Right now, it seems unlikely that Obama can be be out of the woods until May 20 and Oregon. And only if he wins. If he loses Oregon, all bets are off I think.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed.

Jonathan Singer cites Marc Ambinder's declaration that Barack Obama needs 283 delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. I like the concept but I question the number.

Ambinder assumes the magic number is 2025, which excludes Florida and Michigan. That is simply unacceptable. 2209 is the magic number, which means Obama is 468 delegates away from the magic number. Clinton is about 600 delegates away. Florida and Michigan must be resolved before we declare that someone has clinched the nomination.

By Big Tent Democrat

The more we hear from Joe Andrew, the less I respect him. Undeterred by the fact that the Clinton campaign has said nothing about him, Andrew decides to go nuclear negative on the Clintons (and his HuffPo post is even worse):

In an interview with ABC News, Andrew says he knows what's coming from his friends at the Clinton campaign. He anticipates the Clinton campaign "will use the same words and the same language to attack me that Republicans used to attack me when I was DNC chair and I was defending Bill Clinton."

"I say this as a longtime participant in old politics," he says. "I've sparred with everyone from Lee Atwater to Karl Rove. . . .The same words will come out of the [Clinton campaign's] surrogates' mouths to attack me that the Republicans used — and that demonstrates the very hypocrisy of the old politics," he says.

More . . .

A new Q Poll confirms that Hillary Clinton is the stronger Democratic candidate in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

Florida

Clinton 49, McCain 41
McCain 44, Obama 43

Ohio

Clinton 48, McCain 38
McCain 43, Obama 42

Pennsylvania

Clinton 51, McCain 37
Obama 47, McCain 38

Key finding:

Among white working-class voters, Clinton ties McCain 45 - 45 percent in Florida, leads 46 - 40 percent in Ohio and 48 - 40 percent in Pennsylvania. These same voters back McCain over Obama 51 - 34 percent in Florida, 49 - 34 percent in Ohio and 45 - 38 percent in Pennsylvania.

Of course this is not to say Obama can not win these states (though I think he can not win Florida). Just that Clinton has a better chance of winning them.

By Big Tent Democrat

Democrats are moving in the opposite direction:

[From Rasmussen] In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points (see recent Democratic Nomination results).

Obama needs to beat Clinton, not have the Superdelegates drive Clinton from the race. It will make him look weak. Andrew's instincts are terrible here. Oh BTW, Ras has Clinton up 5 in Indiana.

I have no respect for this endorsement:

[Former Clinton superdelegate Joe] Andrew said in his letter that he is switching his support because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain."

Is Obama gonna be a better President? No. Apparently Andrew still thinks Hillary Clinton will be a better President. Is there an issue that moves Andrew? No. Is Obama even more electable than Clinton? Um, no. So why switch? The primary contest is taking too long. Okay. Now there is a winning endorsement. Sheesh.

Clinton picks up a CT superdelegate.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

A new CBS/New York Times poll of Democratic voters is out. Obama is ahead of Hillary for the nomination, but he's slipped. And those polled say Hillary fares better in a November election against John McCain.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by eight points among Democratic primary voters nationwide, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. But fewer expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee than did one month ago, and fewer see him as the Democrat with the best chance of beating presumptive GOP nominee John McCain in November.

....In a head-to-head match-up with McCain, Clinton fared better than her rival: The New York senator led McCain 48 percent to 43 percent among all registered voters, while Obama and McCain were tied at 45 percent.

The primary poll results are here. The general election poll results are here (pdf).

Update: The new Mason Dixon North Carolina poll has Obama up by 7 with a 5 point margin of error.

Where there is no competition is race. Eighty-seven percent of African Americans plan to vote for Obama, while 62 percent of whites said they will vote for Clinton. There has been very little evidence suggesting either candidate can cut into those numbers before Tuesday.

The poll found Obama does better on the war in Iraq but Hillary does better on the economy.

****

A new Insider Advantage North Carolina poll of likely Democratic primary voters is out tonight. Hillary Clinton has pulled into the lead over Barack Obama.

• Hillary Clinton: 44%
• Barack Obama: 42%
• Undecided: 14%

IA says the shift comes from white voters over age 45. It also says Rev. Wright is a factor:

More...