CBS/NYTimes Poll: Something for Both Candidates

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:14:00 AM EST
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)

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A new CBS/New York Times poll of Democratic voters is out. Obama is ahead of Hillary for the nomination, but he's slipped. And those polled say Hillary fares better in a November election against John McCain.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by eight points among Democratic primary voters nationwide, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. But fewer expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee than did one month ago, and fewer see him as the Democrat with the best chance of beating presumptive GOP nominee John McCain in November.

....In a head-to-head match-up with McCain, Clinton fared better than her rival: The New York senator led McCain 48 percent to 43 percent among all registered voters, while Obama and McCain were tied at 45 percent.

The primary poll results are here. The general election poll results are here (pdf).

< Insider Advantage Poll: Hillary Takes Lead in N.C. | An Endorsement Not On The Merits >

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CBS/NYTimes Poll: Something for Both Candidates | 28 comments (28 topical)

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My Theory (5.00 / 3) (#2)
by BDB on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:22:53 AM EST

Is that Obama does better than Hillary for the nomination because we've been told over and over that he's already won the nomination.

: Logical (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by JavaCityPal on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:48:56 AM EST

The same holds true in why she gets such low ratings in who's trustworthy polls. Obama camp started crying for release of tax returns, earmarks, library donations (Bill's library), and did so knowing every day they weren't released was a stronger case for them saying she was hiding something, or trying to alter the documents. It was quite effective.

: And Clowns Like This Guy Are Trying To (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by PssttCmere08 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:22:00 AM EST

take democracy out of the democratic process under the ruse of the party is splitting apart.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_on_el_pr/superdelegates

Good stuff, Jeralyn! (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by Universal on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:28:50 AM EST

Speaking of damage being done from Wright, the Washington Post has two new columns from Novak and Broder discussing how Obama's Wright press conference was too little and too late:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/opinions/?nid=top_opinions

Loved HRC on O'Reilly tonight. [PS: I've got the videos over at my site (courtesy of Taylor Marsh). Feel free to grab them, J, if you want.]

Paul F. Villarreal
VillarrealSports.com

: Too little, too late (none / 0) (#7)
by JavaCityPal on Thu May 01, 2008 at 01:17:10 AM EST

...would have been weeks ago with Obama and Wright.
Seemed to me that the San Francisco misspeak reminded people what it really was that bothered them about the Rev Wright connection, and that maybe Obama's speech on race didn't really answer their questions.

: Broder and Novak? (none / 0) (#12)
by JoeA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:54:20 AM EST

And they have the interests of the Democratic party at heart!

Independents and Republicans (5.00 / 2) (#8)
by DaveOinSF on Thu May 01, 2008 at 01:53:49 AM EST

Obama is no longer more independents or crossover Replicans than Hillary is. They are now even. However, Hillary still retains a larger chunk of the Democratic base than Obama does.

Some great reading... (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by makana44 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 03:43:23 AM EST

So now the press tells candidates when to quit?
Eric Boehlert

Obama's `Race Neutral' Strategy Unravels of its Own Contradictions
Glen Ford

Messiahs Just Aren't What They Used to Be
Arthur Silber

thanks - here's another one (none / 0) (#21)
by Josey on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:29:50 AM EST

Mayhill-Fowler who outed Obama on Billionaire Row is following him through NC. Obama is going negative on Hillary but the media doesn't report it. But the crowds are responding and one elderly woman told Obama to stop hitting on Hillary.
LOL

http://tinyurl.com/497q6s


: That woman was for Obama (none / 0) (#26)
by waldenpond on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:21:49 AM EST

teevee showed the whole thing, it was 'stop hitting on Clinton, you're better than that'. It was presented more as... don't stoop to her level.

The Comments In The Glen Ford Article (none / 0) (#23)
by MO Blue on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:42:19 AM EST

"Obama's `Race Neutral' Strategy Unravels of its Own Contradictions" are interesting giving some insight to the many reactions to Obama'sdisavowal of Rev. Wright.


Whether Hillary is competitive or not in NC (5.00 / 2) (#16)
by Jim J on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:12:39 AM EST

is immaterial. Long-term the only thing that matters is that Obama is now clearly the "black" candidate in the public mind, for better and for worse.

His ability to pump up black turnout is why the super D's slobber over him. That will be their insurance policy down ticket.

His inability to appeal to the vast majority of white and Latino voters means he will lose to McCain. It will be closer than people think simply because everyone hates Republicans.

Bottom line, Obama will lose in November, the Dem old guard will be happy since Hillary didn't win and most will keep their seats, and the latte left will be wax in dark passion because they can wallow in their narcissistic misery for another four years.

: will wax in dark passion (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by Jim J on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:13:51 AM EST

hey, poetry is hard, people.

This poll was conducted (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by Militarytracy on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:28:22 AM EST

April 25th thru the 29th. Jeremiah Wright blew his fuse at the National Press Club on the 28th. If this poll were conducted today I'm sure the numbers would have moved a bit......maybe a bunch.

POsted at 5:14 a.m. MST May 1? (none / 0) (#3)
by echinopsia on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:28:36 AM EST

I'm in Denver and it's still before midnight April 30.

How did you do that?

I set the time to tomorrow morning (none / 0) (#6)
by Jeralyn on Thu May 01, 2008 at 12:52:33 AM EST

because we had enough posts for today and it's late and the poll will be news tomorrow.

I often make my almost midnight posts for the next morning so those that log on in the am on the east coast don't think they are yesterday's news.


: Now I know where his son gets his smartness... (none / 0) (#13)
by Annie M on Thu May 01, 2008 at 06:56:16 AM EST

I'm on the East Coast and I always thought you just didn't sleep.

Jeralyn - When you say that those polled (none / 0) (#11)
by JoeA on Thu May 01, 2008 at 05:29:26 AM EST

say that Hillary fares better in a November election with McCain I assume you mean the GE matchup head to head poll? It's just that your wording is slightly ambiguous.

As the Democratic Primary voters in the poll still see Obama as more likely to win against McCain than Hillary (though by smaller margins than previously).

i.e. From the article you linked to :

Today, 48 percent of Democratic primary voters think Obama has the best chance of defeating McCain in November, down 8 points from a month ago. Thirty-seven percent say Clinton is more likely to beat McCain.

: head to head matchups.... (none / 0) (#22)
by p lukasiak on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:39:01 AM EST

CLinton is doing better than Obama in head to head matchups.
The most interesting thing about these two polls is one question in the WSJ poll -- can you identify with Candidate X.
While Obama's margin against McCain improved by one point since the last poll, his "identify" numbers went down
In their late March poll, 50% said that they could identify with Obama, and 39% said they couldn't. Now its 45% identify, 46% 'not identify'. (Clinton, btw, went from 43 to 46 on "identify", and 52 to 46 on "not identify".)
Its these kind of "internals" questions that tell us about real changes in voter attitudes. If you ask a direct question (i.e. "were you offended by 'bitter cling'?) people tend to respond in the way they think they are supposed to respond.

Any thinking person now (none / 0) (#14)
by kenosharick on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:02:19 AM EST

realizes Obama has almost no chance in the general- yet superdelegates keep endorsing him. Why are they purposly throwing away our chance at winning back the WH?

$$$$$$$$ and more $$$$$$$ (5.00 / 2) (#18)
by ineedalife on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:19:44 AM EST

What makes the world go 'round? $$$$$

The Obama supers look at the Obama fundraising list and drool. Although I don't know that Obama has demonstrated the ability yet to transfer the ATM card to other candidates. I would think that after the third or fourth e-mail from Obama to "Please send bucks to Rep. Redneck" the dollars would stop flowing.


I am sure you are not saying (none / 0) (#15)
by independent voter on Thu May 01, 2008 at 07:08:08 AM EST

anyone supporting Obama is NOT a thinking person. I certainly have an issue with that.
The supers feel the same way I and 14,752,868 of the people who have voted in this primary season feel: Obama will win the GE.


: its not... (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by p lukasiak on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:43:56 AM EST

its not that "no thinking person" could support Obama, its that no rational national political figure would be endorsing Obama right now unless they had some motive other than seeing that the Democrats win in November.
I'm not saying that they should all be running to Clinton right now -- but a smart politician would simply wait and see what the fallout of Obama's current problems will be before tying themselves to him.
Wright is going to be a huge problem for Obama if he is the nominee in November -- not because of who Wright is, but because of how Obama has handled it. Clinton can't exploit the controversy, but the GOP will certainly do so.

Let The Primaries Play Out (none / 0) (#25)
by mmc9431 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:57:24 AM EST

With each revelation and each poll, it's clear to me that the process needs to continue. Rushing to judgement could very well lead to buyer remorse. See where each is in regard to all elements: Polls Delegate and Popular Vote. It's time we has a winner in the White House.

Quinnipiac University latest Florida poll (none / 0) (#27)
by Step Beyond on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:53:03 AM EST

The Buzz

Quinnipiac University's latest swing state poll shows Hillary Clinton beating McCain in Florida 49 - 41 percent, while McCain gets 44 percent to Barack Obama's 43 percent (moe +/- 2.6). She's also handily beating McCain in PA and OH.
From the release: "Facing McCain in November, Clinton leads 54 - 37 percent among women, while he gets 45 percent of men to her 43 percent. They tie 45 - 45 percent among white voters, while she leads 80 - 11 percent among black voters. In an Obama-McCain matchup, men back McCain 46 - 42 percent, while women split, with 44 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain. The Republican leads among white voters 50 - 36 percent, while the Democrat leads among black voters 83 - 8 percent. "

It goes on to say 50% of Florida voters rate economy the most important issue (who couldn't see that coming) and saying it will get better with:

Clinton 44%
Obama 38%
McCain 24%

That should be a winning issue for Dems in Florida if they don't insist on blowing it with the stupid delegate issue.

Some good news (none / 0) (#28)
by Salt on Thu May 01, 2008 at 09:54:24 AM EST

Quinnipiac Univ

Florida: Clinton 49, McCain 41; McCain 44, Obama 43

Ohio: Clinton 48, McCain 38; McCain 43, Obama 42

Pennsylvania: Clinton 51, McCain 37; Obama 47, McCain 38

MOE 2.5-2.9 points

Um, you're being rude to Jeralyn, who (none / 0) (#29)
by MarkL on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:06:54 AM EST

has asked you not to blog***.
I don't like all the rules here, and I don't like getting my comments deleted, but I like the result. Play nice.

Vetting (none / 0) (#30)
by mmc9431 on Thu May 01, 2008 at 10:19:01 AM EST

Criticism can be contructive. That what the whole primary system is designed for. I don't want to be sitting in November kicking myself because I didn't want to look at things objectively. In hind sight, the very deficiencies that dogged Bush in his primaries (lack of experience, No foreign relations experience or even the concept of it, came back and bit the American public big time. I'd like to avoid repeating the same mistake.