A new Q Poll confirms that Hillary Clinton is the stronger Democratic candidate in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

Florida

Clinton 49, McCain 41
McCain 44, Obama 43

Ohio

Clinton 48, McCain 38
McCain 43, Obama 42

Pennsylvania

Clinton 51, McCain 37
Obama 47, McCain 38

Key finding:

Among white working-class voters, Clinton ties McCain 45 - 45 percent in Florida, leads 46 - 40 percent in Ohio and 48 - 40 percent in Pennsylvania. These same voters back McCain over Obama 51 - 34 percent in Florida, 49 - 34 percent in Ohio and 45 - 38 percent in Pennsylvania.

Of course this is not to say Obama can not win these states (though I think he can not win Florida). Just that Clinton has a better chance of winning them.

By Big Tent Democrat

Democrats are moving in the opposite direction:

[From Rasmussen] In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the Wright impact is especially evident. Clinton now has a statistically insignificant two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. However, that represents a ten-point swing since Wright’s press conference. Before Pastor Wright appeared at the National Press Club, Obama led Clinton by eight points (see recent Democratic Nomination results).

Obama needs to beat Clinton, not have the Superdelegates drive Clinton from the race. It will make him look weak. Andrew's instincts are terrible here. Oh BTW, Ras has Clinton up 5 in Indiana.

I have no respect for this endorsement:

[Former Clinton superdelegate Joe] Andrew said in his letter that he is switching his support because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain."

Is Obama gonna be a better President? No. Apparently Andrew still thinks Hillary Clinton will be a better President. Is there an issue that moves Andrew? No. Is Obama even more electable than Clinton? Um, no. So why switch? The primary contest is taking too long. Okay. Now there is a winning endorsement. Sheesh.

Clinton picks up a CT superdelegate.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

A new CBS/New York Times poll of Democratic voters is out. Obama is ahead of Hillary for the nomination, but he's slipped. And those polled say Hillary fares better in a November election against John McCain.

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by eight points among Democratic primary voters nationwide, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. But fewer expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee than did one month ago, and fewer see him as the Democrat with the best chance of beating presumptive GOP nominee John McCain in November.

....In a head-to-head match-up with McCain, Clinton fared better than her rival: The New York senator led McCain 48 percent to 43 percent among all registered voters, while Obama and McCain were tied at 45 percent.

The primary poll results are here. The general election poll results are here (pdf).

Update: The new Mason Dixon North Carolina poll has Obama up by 7 with a 5 point margin of error.

Where there is no competition is race. Eighty-seven percent of African Americans plan to vote for Obama, while 62 percent of whites said they will vote for Clinton. There has been very little evidence suggesting either candidate can cut into those numbers before Tuesday.

The poll found Obama does better on the war in Iraq but Hillary does better on the economy.

****

A new Insider Advantage North Carolina poll of likely Democratic primary voters is out tonight. Hillary Clinton has pulled into the lead over Barack Obama.

• Hillary Clinton: 44%
• Barack Obama: 42%
• Undecided: 14%

IA says the shift comes from white voters over age 45. It also says Rev. Wright is a factor:

More...

Anyone see Boston Legal tonight? It was very funny, with the firm suing the Democratic party over pledged delegates. They had a guy named "Wolf Blitzkrieg" from the "best political news team on television" who kept making a fool of himself. It's still on here, so I can't tell you what happens yet, but it's a very good ribbing of the Dems.

And yes, Hillary rocked on O'Reilly. She did a great job on health care and oil and taxes and she didn't give an inch to O'Reilly who seemed pleased as punch to have her on. He was very cordidal. He'll be airing part two of the interview tomorrow -- in it they discuss torture and Iraq.

If you'd rather discuss something else, that's fine, we'll make this another open thread.

Big Tent Democrat has plans this evening and I'm off to take the TL kid out for a big steak dinner to celebrate his passing the bar.

Feel free to hold down the fort --just please try hard not to burn the place down.

This is an open thread.

Update: Comments now closed.

Fox News has a new poll out. Full poll results are here. (pdf)

Nearly half of Democrats (48 percent) think Hillary Clinton has a better chance of beating John McCain in November — 10 percentage points higher than the 38 percent who think Barack Obama can win, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday. This represents a significant shift from March, when Democrats said Obama was the candidate more likely to beat McCain.

Democrats continue to favor Clinton as their party’s leader, albeit narrowly: 44 percent want her to win the nomination and 41 percent want Obama. Last month Clinton was preferred by 2 percentage points.

There's also an NBC/WSJ poll out taken of all voters, not just Dems. It finds Bush is a liability to McCain and Obama's "bitter" remarks cost him in favorability, as did Rev. Wright.

More...

James Wolcott examines the split among progressive bloggers over Hillary and Obama in the new Vanity Fair.

The vicious Clinton-versus-Obama rupture at Daily Kos, the most activist site in the liberal blogosphere, reflects a party-wide split. What really rankles, as Democrats tear at one another, is the free pass they’ve given McCain—and the White House.

Wolcott names many bloggers (we're not among them). Here's a snippet. [More...]

The Government isn't giving up on challenging the reversal of former Qwest CEO Joe Nacchio's insider trading conviction. Today it filed a petition in the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals seeking a review of the reversal by all of the Judges on the court. The reversal was decided by a panel of three judges. The Petition alleges the panel erred in holding that the trial judge was wrong to exclude Nacchio's expert witness.

First, the government challenged the panel's ruling that the district judge "lacks discretion to exclude expert testimony even where the government's motion to exclude the evidence challenges the expert's reliability and the defendant's written opposition makes no showing of reliability and does not request an evidentiary hearing."

[More...]

Hillary Clinton will be on Fox with Bill O'Reilly tonight. In case you aren't able to tune in, here's what she says about Rev. Wright and Obama.

O'Reilly: "Can you believe this Rev. Wright guy? Can you believe this guy?"
Clinton: "Well, I'm going to leave it up to voters to decide."
O'Reilly: "Well, what do you think as an American?"
Clinton: "Well, what I said when I was asked directly is that I would not have stayed in the church.
O'Reilly: "You're an American citizen, I'm an American citizen, He's an American citizen, Rev. Wright. What do you think when you hear a fellow American citizen say that kind of stuff about America."
Clinton: "Well, I take offense. I think it's offensive and outrageous. I'm going to express my opinion, others can express theirs. It is part of just, you know, an atmosphere we're in today."

Congratulations to Nic, the TL kid. The Colorado Bar Exam results (pdf) came out today. He's officially the newest criminal defense lawyer on the block.

Well done, Nic!