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Monday :: May 19, 2008

Some Good Advice For Dems And Barack Obama

Mike Lux at Open Left delivers it:

Some people who agree with me on the need to appeal to [white working class] voters believe that we have to move to the right to win them over. I don't believe that is true. On economic issues, they are far more populist than what passes for "centrism" in Washington, D.C. And while they are more conservative on social issues, I like to remind people that Bill Clinton in 1996- after a term where he pushed for gays in the military, enacted a ban on employment discrimination against gays and lesbians in federal government employment, vetoed a partial-birth abortion ban, and signed two gun control bills- won the highest percentage of both working class and rural voters of any Democratic Presidential candidate of the last 44 years. He won those voters by reaching out to them politically, and by speaking their language. The second best percentage among those voters in this period? Clinton in 1992.

(Emphasis supplied.) With the Creative Class blogs intent on destroying the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party, this is timely advice.

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Byrd Endorses Obama

Robert Byrd endorses Barack Obama:

Sen. Robert C. Byrd, D-W.Va., endorsed Barack Obama for president shortly after noon today, focusing on his hope to end the Iraq War. "As people all across this great nation know, I have been one of the most outspoken opponents of the Bush administration's misguided war in Iraq and its saber rattling around the globe," Byrd said. He said he had "no intention of involving myself in the Democratic campaign for President in the midst of West Virginia's primary election. But the stakes this November could not be higher."

Byrd praised both Obama and Hillary Clinton, saying their "integrity, honor, love for this country and strong belief in our Constitution I deeply respect...

That's a Super Delegate for Obama, who is the likely nominee. I doubt that makes West Virginia competitive for Obama in the Fall.

By Big Tent Democrat

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SUSA Polls, OR: Obama By 13; KY: Clinton By 31

SUSA on Oregon and Kentucky. In Oregon:

In the Oregon Democratic Primary, which is conducted entirely by mail-in ballot, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points among the 77% of likely voters who have already returned a ballot, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. When all likely voters are included, including those who say they will return a ballot before the window of opportunity closes, Obama defeats Clinton 55% to 42%.

In Kentucky, the FINAL SUSA poll:

Hillary Clinton remains 2:1 atop Barack Obama. . . . Today, it's Clinton 62%, Obama 31%, effectively unchanged from results over the past six weeks. Among African Americans, Obama leads 9:2; Clinton takes a majority of the votes in every other demographic group and in each region of the state.

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On The Popular Vote

There has been a lot gnashing of teeth by Obama supporters about even discussing the popular vote. They are mad that Hillary Clinton claims she is leading in the popular vote. As it happens, I do not agree with Hillary Clinton on this. I think Obama leads in the popular vote by about 260,000 votes as we speak.

I accept the RCP numbers that include FL, MI and the caucus results, except for Washington which had a contemporaneous primary result (that reduces Obama's total margin there by 50,000.) But unlike RCP, my calculus is assigning the uncommitted vote in Michigan to Obama. Putting all this together, I have Obama leading the popular vote by roughly 260,000 votes out of 34,000,000 cast so far. In percentage terms that gives Obama a 0.7% lead. There are five jurisdictions left to vote. So this could change as well. But why does it matter? I'll explain why I think it does on the flip.

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Michelle Obama On Hillary As Veep

Mark Halperin reporting:

[Michelle Obama on GMA this morning] [s]ays she didn’t say that she didn’t want her as her husband’s running mate, adding: “I think the world of Hillary Clinton, particularly as a woman…There is no way that I would say absolutely not to one of the most successful and powerful and groundbreaking women on this planet.”

(Emphasis supplied.) Whether she means it or not, it means a lot that she did say that. Personally, I am quite pleased. Well done, Michelle Obama.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

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"Millenium Bomber " Sentence Upheld

The Supreme Court today upheld the conviction and sentence of the LAX "Millenium Bomber" in 2000. The issue was the ten year consecutive mandatory minimum sentence if a defendant is found to have carried carries explosives during the commission of a crime. The 8-1 opinion is here(pdf). Via Scotus Blog:

Ahmed Ressam, an Algerian national identified by the government as an Al-Qaeda operative, who was foiled in an attempt to detonate explosives in the Los Angeles International Airport on the eve of the millenium in 2000 — Dec. 31, 1999.

...It was sufficient to violate that law, Stevens wrote, that explosives were found in a car the accused was driving when he committed the crime of making a false statement to a customs official. It was not necessary, the opinion said, that the explosives be directly linked to the specific felony committed.

More...

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Supreme Court Upholds Child P*orn Law

The Supreme Court has upheld a part of the PROTECT Act that provides a five year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of child pornography. The Court found the law was not vague or over-reaching. The case is U.S. v. Williams and the opinion is here (pdf).

The court, in a 7-2 decision, brushed aside concerns that the law could apply to mainstream movies that depict adolescent sex, classic literature or innocent e-mails that describe pictures of grandchildren.

The law sets a five-year mandatory prison term for promoting, or pandering, child p*rn. It does not require that someone actually possess child p*rnography. Opponents have said the law could apply to movies like "Traffic" or "Titanic" that depict adolescent sex.

The majority opinion was written by Justice Anton Scalia. Justices Ginsberg and Souter dissented. More...

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The Elite View: Appealing to Working Class Voters Is "Lame"

Jon Alter, in this discussion with Mickey Kaus, demonstrates the reason why Democrats have been losing most Presidential elections. Alter says:

[Clinton] chose to embarrass herself with these lame things she has done in the last few weeks.

Alter is referring to Hillary Clinton's appeals to working class voters. To elitists like Jon Alter, appeals to working class voters are "lame." Let's hope Barack Obama is not listening to folks like Jon Alter because Obama's lack of appeal to working class voters SHOULD be a concern for any thinking Democrat.

Alter say many other silly things in this discussion, but that one was the one that should worry Dems the most, if it is the prevailing wisdom in the Obama camp.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Is A Funny Thing Happening On the Way To Obama's Coronation?

Suffolk Universtiy's latest polling seems to say so. In Oregon:

Obama 45
Clinton 41
Undecided 8
Refused 6

In Kentucky:

Obama 25
Clinton 51
Edwards 6
Undecided 11
Uncommitted 5
Refused 2

Interesting.

By Big Tent Democrat

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Look Who's Trashing Hillary Now

Barack Obama's liberal supporters are trashing Hillary Clinton in the Washington Post with the most inept comparison yet.

Tom Hayden and other lawyers from the 60's are claimng Hillary has hidden her "radical" ties. What are these ties?

[T]wo retired Bay Area lawyers who knew Clinton in the summer of 1971 when she worked as an intern at a left-wing law firm in Oakland, Calif., that defended communists and Black Panthers.

Stupid Comparison #1: Judging lawyers by the clients they represent. Even more stupid, judging a summer law school intern by the firm's clients.

Stupid Comparison #2: Equating the clients of a law school intern's firm with the supporter of a politican who held a fundraiser and sat on boards with the politician. [More...]

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Late Night: Running on Empty

"Running into the sun but I'm running behind."
Jackson Browne, Running on Empty

Here's a late night open thread -- you pick the topics, I'll stay out of it.

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Sunday :: May 18, 2008

Here Comes the Gender Post-Mortem

Now that the media has crowned Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, it finally wants to talk about the sexism Hillary Clinton has faced in this campaign.

Along with the usual post-mortems about strategy, message and money, Mrs. Clinton’s all-but-certain defeat brings with it a reckoning about what her run represents for women: a historic if incomplete triumph or a depressing reminder of why few pursue high political office in the first place.

....Decades after the dissolution of movement feminism, Mrs. Clinton’s events and donor lists filled with women who had experienced insult or isolation on the job....

These women watched in disbelief as the media repeatedly provided sexist coverage of her campaign: [More...]

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