I believe this is a political mistake by the Obama camp:

Barack Obama will reach a significant milestone Tuesday as he marches toward the Democratic nomination for president — a majority of pledged delegates at stake in all the primaries and caucuses. . . . "A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakable message — the people have spoken, and they are ready for change," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe wrote in a memo to supporters Monday.

The Obama campaign will ignore Florida and Michigan tomorrow night. There simply is no getting around that. and for what? To declare victory on May 20 as opposed to June 3? This is simply stupid. The Associate Press of course is on Obama's side on this, but actually harms him:

Her campaign is also trying to change the math by getting the delegates seated from the Michigan and Florida primaries. . . . The Democratic National Committee's rules panel is scheduled to address the issue May 31. If any of the delegates are reinstated, it would increase the number needed to clinch the nomination.

By implication, the AP is saying Barack Obama is fighting AGAINST Florida and Michigan. That simply is not the headline Barack Obama should want.

By Big Tent Democrat

I get this info via e-mail

Tomorrow, Murat Kurnaz, a former Guantanamo detainee, will testify via video link before Rep. Delahunt’s Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight. The hearing will focus on refugees that are wrongfully imprisoned at Guantanamo. Witnesses will also include Lt. Colonel Stephen Abraham, who sat on CSRT panels and has since come out to say that the proceedings are fixed, and attorneys for men held at Guantanamo.

Information on the hearing can be found on the committee’s website. If you are unable to attend, the hearing will be webcast on the Subcommittee’s website.

Mike Lux at Open Left delivers it:

Some people who agree with me on the need to appeal to [white working class] voters believe that we have to move to the right to win them over. I don't believe that is true. On economic issues, they are far more populist than what passes for "centrism" in Washington, D.C. And while they are more conservative on social issues, I like to remind people that Bill Clinton in 1996- after a term where he pushed for gays in the military, enacted a ban on employment discrimination against gays and lesbians in federal government employment, vetoed a partial-birth abortion ban, and signed two gun control bills- won the highest percentage of both working class and rural voters of any Democratic Presidential candidate of the last 44 years. He won those voters by reaching out to them politically, and by speaking their language. The second best percentage among those voters in this period? Clinton in 1992.

(Emphasis supplied.) With the Creative Class blogs intent on destroying the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party, this is timely advice.

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Robert Byrd endorses Barack Obama:

Sen. Robert C. Byrd, D-W.Va., endorsed Barack Obama for president shortly after noon today, focusing on his hope to end the Iraq War. "As people all across this great nation know, I have been one of the most outspoken opponents of the Bush administration's misguided war in Iraq and its saber rattling around the globe," Byrd said. He said he had "no intention of involving myself in the Democratic campaign for President in the midst of West Virginia's primary election. But the stakes this November could not be higher."

Byrd praised both Obama and Hillary Clinton, saying their "integrity, honor, love for this country and strong belief in our Constitution I deeply respect...

That's a Super Delegate for Obama, who is the likely nominee. I doubt that makes West Virginia competitive for Obama in the Fall.

By Big Tent Democrat

SUSA on Oregon and Kentucky. In Oregon:

In the Oregon Democratic Primary, which is conducted entirely by mail-in ballot, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points among the 77% of likely voters who have already returned a ballot, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. When all likely voters are included, including those who say they will return a ballot before the window of opportunity closes, Obama defeats Clinton 55% to 42%.

In Kentucky, the FINAL SUSA poll:

Hillary Clinton remains 2:1 atop Barack Obama. . . . Today, it's Clinton 62%, Obama 31%, effectively unchanged from results over the past six weeks. Among African Americans, Obama leads 9:2; Clinton takes a majority of the votes in every other demographic group and in each region of the state.

There has been a lot gnashing of teeth by Obama supporters about even discussing the popular vote. They are mad that Hillary Clinton claims she is leading in the popular vote. As it happens, I do not agree with Hillary Clinton on this. I think Obama leads in the popular vote by about 260,000 votes as we speak.

I accept the RCP numbers that include FL, MI and the caucus results, except for Washington which had a contemporaneous primary result (that reduces Obama's total margin there by 50,000.) But unlike RCP, my calculus is assigning the uncommitted vote in Michigan to Obama. Putting all this together, I have Obama leading the popular vote by roughly 260,000 votes out of 34,000,000 cast so far. In percentage terms that gives Obama a 0.7% lead. There are five jurisdictions left to vote. So this could change as well. But why does it matter? I'll explain why I think it does on the flip.

Mark Halperin reporting:

[Michelle Obama on GMA this morning] [s]ays she didn’t say that she didn’t want her as her husband’s running mate, adding: “I think the world of Hillary Clinton, particularly as a woman…There is no way that I would say absolutely not to one of the most successful and powerful and groundbreaking women on this planet.”

(Emphasis supplied.) Whether she means it or not, it means a lot that she did say that. Personally, I am quite pleased. Well done, Michelle Obama.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

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The Supreme Court today upheld the conviction and sentence of the LAX "Millenium Bomber" in 2000. The issue was the ten year consecutive mandatory minimum sentence if a defendant is found to have carried carries explosives during the commission of a crime. The 8-1 opinion is here(pdf). Via Scotus Blog:

Ahmed Ressam, an Algerian national identified by the government as an Al-Qaeda operative, who was foiled in an attempt to detonate explosives in the Los Angeles International Airport on the eve of the millenium in 2000 — Dec. 31, 1999.

...It was sufficient to violate that law, Stevens wrote, that explosives were found in a car the accused was driving when he committed the crime of making a false statement to a customs official. It was not necessary, the opinion said, that the explosives be directly linked to the specific felony committed.

More...

The Supreme Court has upheld a part of the PROTECT Act that provides a five year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of child pornography. The Court found the law was not vague or over-reaching. The case is U.S. v. Williams and the opinion is here (pdf).

The court, in a 7-2 decision, brushed aside concerns that the law could apply to mainstream movies that depict adolescent sex, classic literature or innocent e-mails that describe pictures of grandchildren.

The law sets a five-year mandatory prison term for promoting, or pandering, child p*rn. It does not require that someone actually possess child p*rnography. Opponents have said the law could apply to movies like "Traffic" or "Titanic" that depict adolescent sex.

The majority opinion was written by Justice Anton Scalia. Justices Ginsberg and Souter dissented. More...

Jon Alter, in this discussion with Mickey Kaus, demonstrates the reason why Democrats have been losing most Presidential elections. Alter says:

[Clinton] chose to embarrass herself with these lame things she has done in the last few weeks.

Alter is referring to Hillary Clinton's appeals to working class voters. To elitists like Jon Alter, appeals to working class voters are "lame." Let's hope Barack Obama is not listening to folks like Jon Alter because Obama's lack of appeal to working class voters SHOULD be a concern for any thinking Democrat.

Alter say many other silly things in this discussion, but that one was the one that should worry Dems the most, if it is the prevailing wisdom in the Obama camp.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Suffolk Universtiy's latest polling seems to say so. In Oregon:

Obama 45
Clinton 41
Undecided 8
Refused 6

In Kentucky:

Obama 25
Clinton 51
Edwards 6
Undecided 11
Uncommitted 5
Refused 2

Interesting.

By Big Tent Democrat

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Barack Obama's liberal supporters are trashing Hillary Clinton in the Washington Post with the most inept comparison yet.

Tom Hayden and other lawyers from the 60's are claimng Hillary has hidden her "radical" ties. What are these ties?

[T]wo retired Bay Area lawyers who knew Clinton in the summer of 1971 when she worked as an intern at a left-wing law firm in Oakland, Calif., that defended communists and Black Panthers.

Stupid Comparison #1: Judging lawyers by the clients they represent. Even more stupid, judging a summer law school intern by the firm's clients.

Stupid Comparison #2: Equating the clients of a law school intern's firm with the supporter of a politican who held a fundraiser and sat on boards with the politician. [More...]