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Is A Funny Thing Happening On the Way To Obama's Coronation?

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:56:34 AM EST
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Suffolk Universtiy's latest polling seems to say so. In Oregon:

Obama 45
Clinton 41
Undecided 8
Refused 6

In Kentucky:

Obama 25
Clinton 51
Edwards 6
Undecided 11
Uncommitted 5
Refused 2

Interesting.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments closed

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    Is A Funny Thing Happening On the Way To Obama's Coronation? | 232 comments (232 topical)
    In line with what we knew before (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:59:01 AM EST
    I think it will be pretty embarrassing if, when he takes the stage tonight, KY has been called against him, and OR is "too close to call."

    a monday (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Edgar08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:00:41 AM EST
    primary?

    [ Parent ]
    Tomrrow, duh (none / 0) (#34)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:14:52 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    *tomorrow* (none / 0) (#35)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:15:04 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I honestly (none / 0) (#38)
    by Edgar08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:16:29 AM EST
    Didn't know.  Actually.  

    There was one primary on a saturday, if I remember correctly.  I just don't watch the news so it's like I wasn't sure.


    [ Parent ]

    Louisiana (none / 0) (#91)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:43:12 AM EST
    they tend to do elections on Saturdays.

    [ Parent ]
    He's not declaring (5.00 / 2) (#166)
    by waldenpond on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:13:22 AM EST
    Decided against it.

    [Concerned about appearing presumptuous or antagonistic towards Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama will not declare victory in the Democratic nomination fight Tuesday in the event he wins enough pledged delegates to claim a majority.

    Rather, he'll tiptoe right up to the line, without explicitly asserting the race is over.

    While it may sound like an exercise in hair-splitting, the conscious decision not to declare victory is a revealing measure of the sensitivity surrounding overtures that appear to disrespect Clinton and her supporters.]

    Ya think?  

    And for those Obama supporters who keep saying the antipathy towards Obama is only online and that Clinton supporters will come back... I keep seeing articles like Clinton-Obama Grudges Linger For Some Voters....

    ["There's just been an attitude that if you aren't voting for Barack Obama, then you're a racist," said Cowley, 49, a mother of four from Massachusetts who has vowed to never back the senator from Illinois......

    Some women, like Cowley, complain that Clinton has been disrespected and mistreated by the media and the political establishment. Many see Obama as equally condescending, dismissing Clinton's foreign policy role as first lady, pulling out her chair for her at debates and suggesting offhand during one debate that she was "likable enough."]

    [ Parent ]

    And yet, no one would seriously dispute (1.00 / 1) (#201)
    by sarissa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:31:09 AM EST
    that he will soon win the nomination.  

    Which is not to say that he is in fact the best general election candidate.

    [ Parent ]

    Pretty embarrising for him, yes (none / 0) (#104)
    by angie on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:48:48 AM EST
    but absolutely fabulous for me!! From your lips to God's ears. I've got my candle lit.

    [ Parent ]
    You clearly don't no the history (none / 0) (#106)
    by masslib on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:49:46 AM EST
    of Lake County.

    [ Parent ]
    "know" not "no" (none / 0) (#108)
    by masslib on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:50:10 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    If Hillary did everything first? (none / 0) (#110)
    by MMW on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:50:59 AM EST
    Then as far as I can see we're agreed that she should be the nominee. Why take second, when you can have first?

    [ Parent ]
    wow (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:00:12 AM EST
    it would be awsum if she could pull Oregon out.
    hard to look at the pic of 70,000 Obama worshipers in the park last weekend and believe it would be possible but it would be great.

    how many were bused in? (5.00 / 4) (#7)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:05:40 AM EST
    how were the photos really shot? excuse me for being cynical, but this election cycle leaves no alternatives.

    [ Parent ]
    How many buses would that take? 75,000 people..n/t (1.00 / 1) (#112)
    by minordomo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:51:35 AM EST
    n/t

    [ Parent ]
    About 1500 school buses (none / 0) (#187)
    by samanthasmom on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:23:08 AM EST
    But presumably some people came on their own.

    [ Parent ]
    how many were bused in (none / 0) (#113)
    by delacarpa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:51:48 AM EST
    is an answer I hope surfaces. I saw a photo at a differnt angle yesterday and it didn't look like that many and who decides how many is there anyway

    [ Parent ]
    Gotta link (none / 0) (#117)
    by Edgar08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:53:25 AM EST
    To that photo?

    [ Parent ]
    why don't you go find it for us. (none / 0) (#141)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:03:01 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I wasn't the one (none / 0) (#146)
    by Edgar08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:04:52 AM EST
    Who brought it up.

    [ Parent ]
    and that's your reason for not (none / 0) (#165)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:12:26 AM EST
    getting the photo? ok!

    [ Parent ]
    any you? (none / 0) (#193)
    by ww on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:25:58 AM EST
    Anyway, go here.

    [ Parent ]
    that was never the point. (none / 0) (#197)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:27:41 AM EST
    i said how many were bused in.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama rally photo (none / 0) (#186)
    by waldenpond on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:22:49 AM EST
    is in the article I linked to above but here it is again.

    Good morning everyone... two new commentors onboard. evilurges, and minordomo.  I haven't looked to see where they fit on the pocket guide, bun evel has 7 comments and gotten a couple of 1s and a 2.  Minordomo has 14 comments and 4 1s.  

    Ha! Ha!  engage at your own risk.  :)

    [ Parent ]

    reminds me of the gay pride parades (none / 0) (#177)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:18:54 AM EST
    of my youth, where Piedmont Park was absolutely flooded, and the organizers would do a headcount and come up with around 100,000 people, and then you'd turn on the news and the official head count would be around 15,000.

    Though, the OR crowd was huge either way you look at it.  I've just seen too many of those Obama rallies where the participants did not turn into voters.  California is a prime example--his crowds were swelling.  We shall see what happens.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama had a huge crowd in Boston (none / 0) (#216)
    by Boston Boomer on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:39:47 AM EST
    shortly before the vote.  There were lines for block and traffic backed up for miles.  He lost the primary by 15%.


    [ Parent ]
    It's like Obama's rally (none / 0) (#218)
    by Benjamin3 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:44:07 AM EST
    that he held in the Philly suburbs.  Then, on election day, Hillary carried all those counties.

    [ Parent ]
    Smells Like (none / 0) (#181)
    by talex on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:20:55 AM EST
    the photo at Fardus Square as the statue of Saddam came tumbling down.

    A picture taken at certain ANGLES can be very deceiving. And we all know Obama can play all the ANGLES to his benefit even if they are deceiving.

    [ Parent ]

    It's the Northwest (5.00 / 4) (#14)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:08:34 AM EST
    when they get a day that is not in the 40's with sunshine, they will go see anything.  

    [ Parent ]
    Ha! (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:09:03 AM EST
    true

    [ Parent ]
    Excited (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:10:15 AM EST
    they also get excited when the country notices Oregon and Washington.  They love to be in the news.  

    [ Parent ]
    I know I am nitpicking (none / 0) (#123)
    by Serene1 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:56:34 AM EST
    but judging by the venue arrangements, looks to me that Obama Camp was prepared in advance for this large a turnout.

    [ Parent ]
    Funny, I said the same thing to (none / 0) (#128)
    by zfran on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:57:54 AM EST
    myself. What would they have done had this event been a say a gym or a smaller venue! Interesting.

    [ Parent ]
    The news was (none / 0) (#155)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:08:31 AM EST
    that they weren't drawing in huge crowds anymore, then suddenly they were!

    LOL, this is all just getting too funny.

    [ Parent ]

    Hey, I'm in the Northwest (none / 0) (#195)
    by waldenpond on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:26:22 AM EST
    and I resent (resemble) that remark.   It's true, the sun comes out and the malls fill up.  :)

    [ Parent ]
    So very true (none / 0) (#233)
    by americanincanada on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:57:55 AM EST
    As an american living on Vancouver Island I can tell you this is true. Yesterday was beautiful from Oregon to Vancouver, 70 degrees and sunny. We were out and so was everyoe else.

    I think we would have gone to the park to watch anything as long as it involved the sunshine and our boat. And there were boaters anchored off the shore near Obama;s event.

    Looking at the pics, to me it screamed a combination of beautiful day and curiosity. Nothing more. I do not expect those numbers to turn into votes.

    [ Parent ]

    Supporters, not worshippers (5.00 / 6) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:09:48 AM EST
    It is to Obama's credit that he can draw such a large crowd.

    The point you should be making is elections are decided by voting, not crowd rallies.

    I am pretty sure Kerry beat Bush in the crowd rally metric in 2004.

    [ Parent ]

    sorry, yes. supporters. (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:11:25 AM EST
    the article said that it was bigger than Kerrys crowd but it did say Kerry attracted similar crowds.


    [ Parent ]
    He's coming to Tampa Weds (none / 0) (#43)
    by independent voter on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:18:26 AM EST
    and online tickets are gone already. I will be curious to see what the turn out is like here. I have seen articles that declare he will not be able to draw big crowds in Florida.

    [ Parent ]
    Let me tell you something right now (5.00 / 3) (#66)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:32:57 AM EST
    Going to Florida and NOT declaring strongly and forcefully that he will fight to seat the Florida delegation will be a huge mistake.

    No matter how big a rally he has.

    [ Parent ]

    Why else would he go? (none / 0) (#68)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:34:00 AM EST
    If he is not gonna do that

    [ Parent ]
    Then there is no point going (none / 0) (#73)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:37:10 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    If he does not do that (none / 0) (#74)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:37:46 AM EST
    I think we are agreeing right Stellaa?

    [ Parent ]
    He Faked Them Out in Michigan Too (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by Athena on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:43:03 AM EST
    Yes - agreement - and didn't he just show up in Michigan last week and say that he felt bad he wasn't on the ballot?

    But he had a big ice cream cone for the audience - John Edwards!!

    That was supposed to paper over the fact that Obama never ran for President in that state.

    Of course, the MSM never noticed that fact that he openly dissed Michigan with a big smile on his face.  

    [ Parent ]

    Punk'd (none / 0) (#102)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:48:26 AM EST
    that is what the kids call it.  

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed (none / 0) (#89)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:43:10 AM EST
    really curious why he would go there if he is not ready to settle this issue.  

    [ Parent ]
    Don't Count on Edwards (none / 0) (#115)
    by Athena on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:52:27 AM EST
    If John Edward was a true leader, he would have gone to Michigan and called for a revote right in front of Obama at the rally.

    But he's not.  

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, (5.00 / 2) (#160)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:09:57 AM EST
    and by not doing so, IN MICHIGAN, he endorsed not only Obama, but the disenfranchisement of voters.

    At least Elizabeth has integrity.

    [ Parent ]

    If I were in Florida (none / 0) (#85)
    by Boston Boomer on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:42:18 AM EST
    I go to demand he count my vote.


    [ Parent ]
    Florida Residents Are Planning To Travel (4.00 / 1) (#145)
    by MO Blue on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:04:30 AM EST
    to D.C. to protest at the DNC on May 30 and 31. Detail on times and place can be obtained at Count Our Votes  If anyone lives in the vicinity, please join them in support. Also, pass the information along to friends and family and post on other sites.

    Information provided by MichaelGale.

    [ Parent ]

    I wish I were (none / 0) (#234)
    by americanincanada on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:00:53 AM EST
    back home in Tampa. I would follow him around the state...

    I wonder if there will be protests. Tampa has a large AA community but just as large a hispanic community. I really do wish I could be home tyo go to this out of curiosity.

    [ Parent ]

    Welcome back BTD (none / 0) (#47)
    by zfran on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:22:39 AM EST
    I wondered about the crowd, too. Obama's campaign is reminiscent of GWB's 2000 where only friendly crowds were allowed in. I had heard that the crowd in MI a couple of weeks ago was bused in, so not too far fetched to imagine this happened as well. Of course, it is impressive looking should they all be there because they all wanted to on their own.

    [ Parent ]
    People get a grip (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:25:26 AM EST
    it's the Northwest.  Nothing happens there.  There are thousands of young kids and when the weather is good, anything becomes a happening.  

    [ Parent ]
    Now Stellaaa (none / 0) (#58)
    by Steve M on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:27:14 AM EST
    Let us not be guilty of the same sort of regionalism that affects the Appalachia-haters!

    [ Parent ]
    No..it's true (none / 0) (#64)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:31:05 AM EST
    I lived up there, in Seattle.  They get so excited when the country notices how great they are they go collectively apesh*t.   It's quite a phenomenon.  I am sure this crowd will be the event of the decade.  
    They always feel forgotten, up there in that corner but superior.  

    [ Parent ]
    Sun is nice, but we'll even turn out (none / 0) (#175)
    by Lahdee on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:18:38 AM EST
    in the rain for Jim McDermott and the venerable RonK.

    [ Parent ]
    Stellaa is right about the weather effect. (none / 0) (#79)
    by befuddled on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:40:12 AM EST
    I used to live in Portland. After months of rain people go crazy on a lovely spring day and mob all over the place. That said, my sister-in-law in Eugene thought Obama had an edge, she's a Repub and can't vote in the primary, but she's ready for Hillary if she gets the nom.

    [ Parent ]
    Um (none / 0) (#82)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:42:02 AM EST
    so not true, Stellaaa.  We're quite a vibrant part of the country.  Lots happens here.

    (being from the Northwest).

    About the crowds, there are quite a number of universities around Portland, so it isn't at all wierd to have a huge audience for Obama.  I've heard he busses them in.

    [ Parent ]

    Reason for the crowd: (5.00 / 1) (#203)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:32:06 AM EST
    They were all promised latte coupons ;-).

    [ Parent ]
    Nope. Obama does not have people (none / 0) (#188)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:23:18 AM EST
    sign loyalty oaths before entering his rallies or town halls.  People wearing Hillary shirts are allowed in. Saw it here in Indiana.  He does not just allow "friendly" crowds in as you claim.  

    [ Parent ]
    I was there... (5.00 / 6) (#36)
    by JustJennifer on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:15:23 AM EST
    it was an usually nice day so I think that had something to do with it.  But yes, the crowd did contain a pretty good amount of young people, some clearly not old enough to vote.  It was hot.  And after listening to him, seeing Hillary when she came to Seattle, and seeing Bill and Chelsea on Saturday I have to say my mind hasn't changed.  LOL  I am not buying the Obama hype.

    [ Parent ]
    Color me (none / 0) (#72)
    by Emma on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:36:13 AM EST
    And after listening to him, seeing Hillary when she came to Seattle, and seeing Bill and Chelsea on Saturday

    very jealous.  I've been volunteering for the Clinton campaign since March and have yet to see one Clinton in person.  Lucky you!!

    [ Parent ]

    I've met both the Clintons (none / 0) (#194)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:26:20 AM EST
    and I have to say I was much more excited about HRC.  She just gives off this vibe that she totally has her sh*t together, and to hear her speak is just awe-inspiring.

    She looked absolutely radiant.

    [ Parent ]

    Hmm (5.00 / 5) (#39)
    by lilburro on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:17:12 AM EST
    maybe some people came in from Kentucky.  They don't get to see him much down there, I hear...

    [ Parent ]
    Not possible. (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by masslib on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:22:43 AM EST
    I was over at Blue Oregon and they were like OMG, look at how unracist we are, and she voted for the war, which are together the crux of her extreme disadvantage in an Oregon primary.

    [ Parent ]
    I guess it doesn't bother them (5.00 / 5) (#101)
    by Boston Boomer on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:48:19 AM EST
    that Obama voted for the Cheney energy bill.  I thought Oregon was big on the environment, but I must have heard wrong.


    [ Parent ]
    They are prolly not that familiar. (5.00 / 2) (#116)
    by masslib on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:52:35 AM EST
    But the other two variables are potent.  

    [ Parent ]
    They also don't care (5.00 / 1) (#151)
    by angie on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:06:32 AM EST
    that Obama thinks Lake Erie is in Oregon (according to the cut and paste job of the fliers he made out there).

    [ Parent ]
    I refuse to look at the video (none / 0) (#5)
    by ruffian on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:01:45 AM EST
    no sense bumming myself out

    [ Parent ]
    Besides, videos of excited kids (none / 0) (#6)
    by rooge04 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:03:46 AM EST
    doesn't mean an awful lot when older people are the most dependable voting bloc EVER.  No worries. Rock bands can command such crowds also.  

    [ Parent ]
    That seem difficult to believe (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:10:38 AM EST
    in that Oregon is not very diverse. It is almost all white.

    [ Parent ]
    Well (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:13:08 AM EST
    even that type of observation seems hard to take seriously. In a crowd of 75,000, judging ages seems like wishful thinking.

    I say we stick to the really impressive number that came to rally for Obama. and it IS impressive.

    [ Parent ]

    Heh (5.00 / 2) (#41)
    by Steve M on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:17:24 AM EST
    You must have missed this comment during your suspension.

    Just because it's a big crowd doesn't mean you can't pick out the Jews!  Look, I think I see one there.

    [ Parent ]

    HeHe (none / 0) (#45)
    by MO Blue on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:21:38 AM EST
    You are right Steve. I see that one to.

    [ Parent ]
    no question (none / 0) (#31)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:14:26 AM EST
    it IS impressive

    [ Parent ]
    doub it? (none / 0) (#37)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:16:20 AM EST
    take a look

    [ Parent ]
    They forgot one thing (none / 0) (#30)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:14:02 AM EST
    remember when they called Hillary Tonya Harding?  Well, guess where Tonya is from?  Oregon.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes. I'm sure the retirees numbered (none / 0) (#24)
    by rooge04 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:11:25 AM EST
    in the thousands.

    [ Parent ]
    I wish I had not looked (none / 0) (#15)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:08:40 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    WOW, when (none / 0) (#105)
    by delacarpa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:48:50 AM EST
    John Kerry in 2004 had a crowd of 50,000 at a rally there. I think that he could draw that many considering the time elaspe. Many of those had already voted and just wanted to come see him.

    [ Parent ]
    What Kind Of Track Record Does (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by MO Blue on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:06:31 AM EST
    Suffolk University have?

    Another poll of interest:

    [T]he public is sending a strong message to journalists and pundits: It is too early to declare, as some already have, that the race is over.

    "Fully 72% of the public - including comparable percentages of Democrats, Republicans and independents -say that journalists should not be anointing Obama as the Democratic nominee at this stage in the race. Just 20% say that journalists should be doing this." PEW Research Center
    As I recall (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:07:33 AM EST
    they were the only ones that got New Hampshire right.  

    [ Parent ]
    20%?Wow, we have that many working for (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by BarnBabe on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:29:53 AM EST
    MSNBC now? I would love to poll just the Democrats in the whole country in each state that voted already. Wonder if they would change their minds. It is interesting that 75% are now aware of the media's involvement in electing Obama. I bet the media did not realize that there were so many people out there not buying their BS.

    [ Parent ]
    MSM Pushing Obama Hard Today (4.00 / 1) (#77)
    by Athena on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:39:12 AM EST
    MSNBC in full push-Obama mode:

    Just saw an ad for "Super Tuesday" - Kentucky! Oregon!  - then -

    Only one picture shown - Barack Obama - full screen - and the words "Will he declare himself the probable nominee?"\

    Have you seen a primary coverage ad before with ONE candidate?

    We are now in a total blackout of Hillary coverage.  

    We have entered the kind of Obama saturation coverage we used to decry when it was Kim Jung-Il or Mao.

    [ Parent ]

    Can't say, but (none / 0) (#136)
    by Lahdee on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:01:26 AM EST
    I did notice that it was heavily weighted with individuals over 46 years of age:
    18-25 - 3%
    26-35 - 9%
    36-45 - 14%
    46-55 - 23%
    56-65 - 28%
    66-75 - 15%
    75+   - 9%

    I would have liked to seen a spread that included more 36-45.


    [ Parent ]

    What about this: Indie run for Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:06:44 AM EST
    Rasmussen

    The fact that Senator Clinton drew 22% to John McCain's 32% and Barack Obama's 31% demonstrates that the electorate remains volatile and unpredictable. It also


    So then she would become (none / 0) (#192)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:25:57 AM EST
    like Lieberman?  If my party doesn't nominate me I leave it and become its enemy?  Don't think so.  She is a Democrat and wouldn't do anything to hurt her party or her standing in the party.

    [ Parent ]
    I will wait for KUSA (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:09:07 AM EST


    You rang? (none / 0) (#206)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:32:38 AM EST
    KUSA totally disagrees with this poll and, based on past track records of being correctly incorrect, predicts:

    KY:  Obama by 60%
    OR:  Obama by 92%
    MOE: +/- 100%

    [ Parent ]

    Kathy, Obama by 60% in (none / 0) (#210)
    by zfran on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:35:04 AM EST
    Ky???

    [ Parent ]
    Well, shut my mouth and call me hushpuppy (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by goldberry on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:09:58 AM EST
    Of course, SUSA had NC by 5 for Obama as well so I suggest we take this with a grain of salt.  On the other hand, Oregon has a very low barrier for voting and that should mean a lot more rural, senior and blue collar workers won't have to schedule their time around a polling place.  It could be this close.  

    It is a surprising poolling result (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:11:47 AM EST
    to me, the Oregon result I mean.

    I doubt it is correct myself.

    [ Parent ]

    In an interview (5.00 / 1) (#138)
    by vigkat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:02:08 AM EST
    A guy who apparently had some inside info regarding Oregon politics said internal polling was showing a 65 to 35 win for Obama.  I wasn't paying close atttention (trying not to look at that huge crowd) and don't recall his name or title.  The interview was carried on MSNBO this morning.

    [ Parent ]
    Man oh man... (none / 0) (#27)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:11:56 AM EST
    I guess this nomination will have to earned the old fashioned way: votes and hard work.  

    [ Parent ]
    more like (none / 0) (#237)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:42:12 AM EST
    how many in Portland actually turn in their ballots.  
    I bet this hits over 70% returns which is more the turnout for a general.  At this point you need to work the phones and post in all of the Oregon media outlet comment sections.  Oregon is a real media blackout generally, including the blogs.  Finding out voting records in Oregon, esp. state voting records, well, often I have to plain call up candidates to find out it's so sad.  Open, honest public discourse, disclosure for such a liberal area is really lacking in my view.
    The Economic Populist
    [ Parent ]
    I made phone calls in Oregon (5.00 / 4) (#40)
    by JustJennifer on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:17:20 AM EST
    all weekend and I was surprised by the number of people who said they had aleady voted for her.  Got some Obama supporters but not that many.  Talked to a lot of people who said "sorry my mom and dad aren't home and I am only 16"  LOL

    Eh (5.00 / 2) (#92)
    by nell on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:43:22 AM EST
    Don't read too much into the phone calls. As it gets closer to the primary, the campaign ususally targets identified Hillary supporters to GOTV, along with people they identified as being undecided. You should be speaking mostly to Hillary supporters at this point.

    Not to reduce hope, I just think expectations got raised in NC due to phone call results and poll results, like the ones BTD highlighted, and they just ended up being flat wrong. Always better to expect to lost by 20, keep working hard to lose by single digits, and then be surprised by a WIN!

    [ Parent ]

    Or (5.00 / 4) (#51)
    by kenoshaMarge on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:24:28 AM EST
    could it be that some wiser heads might have pointed out that declaring victory in the 8th inning, no matter how far ahead you may be, would manage to just enrage a few more people you might need in the GE? And that it also would look like Dubya and his Mission Accomplished sign?

    Whatever the reason, it is a wise decision, IMO.

    I doubt this is accurate (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by ajain on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:26:03 AM EST
    But I guess this means we double down on our efforts and start making phone calls.
    Maybe we can earn Hillary some votes.

    Article in Tribune Sunday (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Jlvngstn on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:26:36 AM EST
    for those of you who wanted to see the brief media analyis relative to the sexism overtones in this election, here it is: http://www.chicagotribune.com/features/lifestyle/chi-fempower-0518may18,0,4333714.column

    Hmmm (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by stillife on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:26:51 AM EST
    Is this why he's backing off from tomorrow's "victory speech"?

    King Obama's Coronation is Prematureed (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by Missblu on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:35:45 AM EST
    I believe that another shock is coming tomorrow night. It will be closer that Obama's predictions.

    The thing that is still hurting many Clinton supporters the most is the strategy many believe his campaign had of suspending Florida and Michigan's delegates and votes for her so that the friendly pundits for him could proclaim over and over  the past months that she is behind and can never catch up. The final chapter to this refrain by the chorus is that he will proclaim himself king tomorrow night.

    If it can be fixed today or tomorrow or on the 31st, it could have been fixed long ago and that is one of the primary reasons many will never vote for him.  He didn't believe in the right of all votes to be counted not just for the involved states but for the candidate of many. If it had been South Carolina and Wisconsin in suspension who can doubt it would not have been corrected.

    Do Dems suffer from premature coronation? (5.00 / 2) (#124)
    by Exeter on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:57:19 AM EST
    Let's look at the symptoms:

    Persistent or recurrent coronation with minimal voter stimulation before, on, or shortly after primary elections and before the voters wishes it. The clinician must take into account factors that affect duration of the excitement phase, such as age, novelty of the candidate or situation, and recent frequency of voting activity.

    The disturbance causes marked distress or interpersonal difficulty.

    Spreading and Infectious (5.00 / 1) (#143)
    by Athena on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:04:04 AM EST
    I'm also seeing discussions of premature election and electoral dysfunction (ED).

    Whatever it's called, there's a new syndrome emerging.  We need the CDC.

    [ Parent ]

    That's very funny! (none / 0) (#167)
    by sander60tx on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:13:26 AM EST
    Thanks for the laugh. :-)

    [ Parent ]
    And... (none / 0) (#228)
    by Lou Grinzo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:48:42 AM EST
    If your excitement phase lasts more than four weeks, a condition known as Obamaism, consult with your physician immediately.

    (Sorry, I'm so sick of the ED drug ads that I couldn't resist.)
    What is The Cost of Energy?
    [ Parent ]

    i think the question here should be (5.00 / 2) (#150)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:06:22 AM EST
    why isn't obama out in the boonies with the "bitter voters" and the down trodden like he should be. if you watched the campaigns of both the kennedy brothers, they were out in those areas shaking hands and meeting people to get them to vote for them. sure obama does some of it but even his supporters in the media have noticed how he runs away from them.

    that doesn't bode well for the ge.

    Pew: public to media, don't declare Obama winner (5.00 / 1) (#170)
    by fctchekr on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:15:03 AM EST
    http://pewresearch.org/pubs/839/news-media-declare-obama-winner

    "Barack Obama may be building an insurmountable lead in the Democratic primary race, but the public is sending a strong message to journalists and pundits: It is too early to declare, as some already have, that the race is over.

    Fully 72% of the public -- including comparable percentages of Democrats, Republicans and independents -- say that journalists should not be anointing Obama as the Democratic nominee at this stage in the race. Just 20% say that journalists should be doing this."

    Obama goes meta on 5/20 coronation (5.00 / 1) (#212)
    by lambert on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:36:27 AM EST
    Pushback works.

    You know (none / 0) (#224)
    by Steve M on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:45:55 AM EST
    there is this recurring pattern where the campaign floats trial balloons of this type, and then when the public reaction is negative, all the Obama supporters swarm the blogs to proclaim that "Obama himself never said it, so it never happened!"  You can find a couple such commentors in this very thread.

    I'm trying to think of a couple past examples of this phenomenon.  It deserves a name!

    [ Parent ]

    Did you (5.00 / 1) (#225)
    by chrisvee on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:47:00 AM EST
    actually read the comments before slamming TL?  BTD commented several times about the impressive size of the crowd.  Delacarpa also reminded us that 50,000 appeared at a rally for John Kerry in 2004 and several other people commented that Obama's turnout exceeded it.

    We need a sign (5.00 / 1) (#235)
    by Florida Resident on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:09:36 AM EST
    Please don't feed the trolls.

    Latte drinking liberal in Portland here (5.00 / 1) (#240)
    by MisterPleasant on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:51:25 PM EST
    and although I find the numbers at the Obama rally to be impressive, it does not budge my support for Hillary.  After beginning my adult life during the Reagan years, I deeply appreciated the change in direction that the Clinton years provided.  The number of Hillary signs in my neighborhood here in NE Portland has blossomed in the last few days.  Mostly middle aged and retired folks here.  In the trendy neighborhoods it is all Obama.  I have no idea how the election will go here, but I felt some hope when my step son - who is a new age hippy college student - announced that he had changed his vote from Obama to Hillary after reading policy statements from both of them.

    For the record, real Cascadians live for the cool, rainy weather.  If I wanted year-round sunshine I'd move to Arizona.

    Is Suffolk a poll that does not push (none / 0) (#4)
    by ruffian on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:00:41 AM EST
    undecideds very hard? Seems like an awfully high number of them for a race that is supposed to be "over".

    It's fun to consider but... (none / 0) (#13)
    by kempis on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:08:23 AM EST
    Aren't blacks (1%--a total of 6 AA respondents) way underrepresented in that Oregon poll?

    I'd love to imagine Hillary winning--or even keeping Oregon close--but I find it really hard to get my hopes up. Oregon is Obama's demographics: majority white, true, but largely non-union, "creative class," liberal whites with a sprinkling of granola on their values--not that there's anything wrong with that; just trying to indicate a cultural difference between Oregonians and Kentuckians. :)

    Not really (5.00 / 2) (#33)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:14:32 AM EST
    Oregron has almost no A-As.

    [ Parent ]
    more like a cultural thing (5.00 / 1) (#133)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:00:01 AM EST
    Or should I say cult.  I'm in Oregon and Obama is like he's cool or fashionable or something.  It's astounding just how many don't know where the two stand on policy, but this is a cool thing going on in Oregon.

    That said, when I dropped off my ballot at the polling station, it was filled with all older people quietly filling out there ballots in the lobby.  

    I expect Obama to win due to this, they are just not waking up in time but I believe this mesmerized haze just cannot last.  
    The Economic Populist
    [ Parent ]

    and as i have read many of that (none / 0) (#28)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:12:50 AM EST
    demographic are starting to have buyer's remorse. you know it isn't just bitter blue collar workers that are saying "where's the beef?"

    [ Parent ]
    don't mean to be rude here, but please (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:47:39 AM EST
    do your own homework

    [ Parent ]
    Where is the link? (5.00 / 1) (#154)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:08:08 AM EST
    I tried to discuss this "buyer's remorse" myth on another thread here the other day.  I don't want HRC to drop out.  I think the contest is good for Democrats.  I voted for and worked for Obama here in Lake County Indiana and I don't have buyer's remorse at all.

    Just because people want the campaign to continue does not mean that they are unhappy with the way they voted.   It has been an exciting and energizing campgain and people in many ignored states (like mine) get to actual matter. It's almost over -- let's let it continue through the last few primaries.  

    Again, not "buyer's remorse."

    [ Parent ]

    you really don't want to see or hear (none / 0) (#190)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:24:16 AM EST
    there is buyer's remorse out there. all you have to do is google it.

    monical crowley fox
    neil macdonald cbc
    morning joe
    savage politics

    gee, i am so sorry your investigative skills are lacking.

    [ Parent ]

    Morning Joe? (1.00 / 2) (#199)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:29:38 AM EST
    Come on, I don't get my talking points from Republicans like you do.  And, regarding those links, they referenced discussions of IF there was buyer's remorse - not that there WAS.

    Of course we could also find evidence of HRC trying to knee-cap Obama's campaign so that she can run again in 4 years.  Is that true?  I don't believe so, but I can find discussion of it.

    [ Parent ]

    It is neither a fact nor a myth. There is (none / 0) (#226)
    by Joan in VA on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:48:18 AM EST
    no polling that I'm aware of gauging satisfaction with votes cast in previous primaries. Indiana was fairly recent compared to voting as far back as January. It's just conjecture whether there is buyer's remorse or there isn't.

    [ Parent ]
    And it sure looks like you (none / 0) (#157)
    by IndiDemGirl on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:08:59 AM EST
    meant to be rude.

    [ Parent ]
    really! in the mind of the beholder! (none / 0) (#169)
    by hellothere on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:14:59 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I think OR (none / 0) (#97)
    by frankly0 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:47:24 AM EST
    really is quite unusual in its culture and voting patterns.

    Eve