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SUSA Polls, OR: Obama By 13; KY: Clinton By 31

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:49:42 PM EST
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SUSA on Oregon and Kentucky. In Oregon:

In the Oregon Democratic Primary, which is conducted entirely by mail-in ballot, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points among the 77% of likely voters who have already returned a ballot, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. When all likely voters are included, including those who say they will return a ballot before the window of opportunity closes, Obama defeats Clinton 55% to 42%.

In Kentucky, the FINAL SUSA poll:

Hillary Clinton remains 2:1 atop Barack Obama. . . . Today, it's Clinton 62%, Obama 31%, effectively unchanged from results over the past six weeks. Among African Americans, Obama leads 9:2; Clinton takes a majority of the votes in every other demographic group and in each region of the state.

< On The Popular Vote | Byrd Endorses Obama >

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    SUSA Polls, OR: Obama By 13; KY: Clinton By 31 | 192 comments (192 topical)

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    Edwards closed the deal! (5.00 / 9) (#1)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:50:59 PM EST


    Hahaha! (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:52:21 PM EST
    I love you, Stellaaa.

    Boy, I think it's pretty telling that the poll has not moved an inch over the last few weeks.  Don't they watch TV?  Don't they know it's time to move on from Wright and embrace the Post-Post World?

    [ Parent ]

    Token (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:54:50 PM EST
    white male.  Does Edwards get how much he diminished his brand?  He could have been somebody.  

    By the way, Howler, Somerby is awesome today.  Take a read.  

    [ Parent ]

    HA! (second notice) (none / 0) (#13)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:01:05 PM EST
    Just read it.  Thanks.

    I dunno about these polls--I'm not saying which way I don't know--but the one thing we have learned about polls is that people lie about what they have done and what they plan to do.

    That is why the integrity os KUSA is unimpeachable.  We do no polling whatsoever.  

    [ Parent ]

    So "don't ask, don't tell" (none / 0) (#130)
    by Cream City on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:07:17 PM EST
    is adapted to polling by KUSA.  Brilliant and oh-so-PC, too!  Plus, it frees up the phone. :-)


    [ Parent ]
    What is KUSA? (none / 0) (#140)
    by NO2WONDERBOY on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:14:33 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Kathy's Own Personal Poll (none / 0) (#143)
    by MO Blue on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:18:29 PM EST
    Based on Kathy's select criteria, Hillary always wins.

    [ Parent ]
    Somerby (none / 0) (#180)
    by bridget on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:02:17 PM EST
    Just printing out while I type ;-)

    thanks goodness for the DailyHowler

    I learned to much from him re media, pols and pundits - his posts and archives are absolutely the best

    [ Parent ]

    Let's see... (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by NO2WONDERBOY on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:15:33 PM EST
    if the O camp comes up with some shenanigans to dismerit OUR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE. South-side Chicago tactics... you never know...
    Hopefully he is SOOOOOO distracted with his self-appointed coronation and with his BIG BOY fight with McCain, that he will forget about us.
    There could be a surprise in the making though.
    This thing is far, far from over.
    CONVENTION CITY HERE WE COME!!!

    [ Parent ]
    <snark> you mean going to the convention and (none / 0) (#173)
    by thereyougo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:29:00 PM EST
    allowing the democratic process in a tight race won't sunder the party?

    wow, the C-class  uses rovian tactics?

    say it aint so.

    [ Parent ]

    Heh (none / 0) (#20)
    by chrisvee on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:05:16 PM EST
    But Axelrove probably figures that there's plenty of time for Edwards to influence working class voters between now and the GE so KY doesn't matter.  And Obama will pick someone with perceived strength with either seniors or Hispanics as his VP.  All of this seems to be a strategy to get Clinton's core without having to have Clinton herself on the ticket. It's a very cynical ploy.  I wonder if it will work.  I myself don't tend to vote on anything other than the top of the ticket and likely Cabinet picks.  The VP or 'celebrity' endorsers (including other pols) are meaningless to me when push comes to shove.

    [ Parent ]
    I got the candidate (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:09:03 PM EST
    Charo...she is senior, woman and hispanic.  Go team.  Oh, and white men would love her.  

    [ Parent ]
    Dolly Parton (5.00 / 3) (#42)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:13:58 PM EST
    The only woman I can think of who manages to be incredibly successful without being painted as a screaming, hysterical harpy or a ball-breaking b*tch.

    She is old, but not in a gross, obvious way.  She's got a great sense of humor and a couple of more attributes that might appeal to male voters.

    And of course we all know that Obama's folks expect that any day now Geraldine Ferraro will see the light and throw her support to the good guys.

    I want to see the latest KY poll.  I just don't think Edwards can make a dent in Obama's working class problem.  These strawmen (and women, in the case of MO this morning) keep getting thrown out, as if, by virtue of their upbringing or sex, they can persuade others of their type to follow suit.  It's a bit insulting-and hilarious, because what simplistic thinking.

    [ Parent ]

    Kathy, I met Dolly Parton a couple of years ago (5.00 / 6) (#53)
    by Angel on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:19:12 PM EST
    while working on a non-profit thing.  Long story short is that her road manager (Hey Don!) invited me to her band's waiting area, Dolly arrived and did her thing for me, and then she gave me a backstage pass and invited me to eat dinner with the crew, stay for her show, etc., etc.  Anyway, she is absolutely stunning in person.  Tiny and beautiful and just sparkles from head to toe, and I would say absolutely down to earth.  What a lady!

    Gerraldine Ferraro will not be going over to the other side....I just saw something about her saying Obama is sexist!  No way will she ever vote for him.  

    [ Parent ]

    Some people have backbone (5.00 / 0) (#56)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:20:54 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I am not surprised. I would love to meet her. (5.00 / 0) (#59)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:21:50 PM EST
    And I would probably be one of those silly women who bursts into tears upon meeting her (and I seldom cry--seriously).  Such an amazing woman.

    I wonder if she's endorsed anyone.  She certainly loves her some bluegrass.  She'd do an awesome job in KY!

    [ Parent ]

    Not sure if you meant this (5.00 / 2) (#134)
    by Cream City on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:09:44 PM EST
    about Ferraro or Parton, but I agree entirely re both of them -- want to meet 'em, probably would fall apart in admiration at doing so.

    Actually, my dream might be to do a drink with Ferraro but do a song with Parton. :-)

    [ Parent ]

    Met Ferraro during 1984 campaign. (5.00 / 2) (#171)
    by caseyOR on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:17:56 PM EST
    During the 1984 campaign I was privileged to be part of a small group of volunteers here in Portland who got to spend a few minutes alone with her. Not surprisingly, she was very charming. She was also quite direct. She thanked us for our work on the campaign and we all shook her hand. I'll never forget it.

    [ Parent ]
    I think maybe (5.00 / 1) (#162)
    by Molly Pitcher on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:51:25 PM EST
    Dolly really grew up too poor to be compatible with the latte liberals.  I am sure there must be a country song about the city slicker and the country girl!

    I think I read once that the only thing my mountain ancestors ever bought ready made was shoes, but originally I'm sure they made moccasins.  And maybe they had to buy salt.  'Sugar' was cane syrup or honey, and there were 2 cash crops: 'sang and moonshine.  Now, you been edjycated 'nuff.

    [ Parent ]

    Hmm (none / 0) (#47)
    by Steve M on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:16:25 PM EST
    How about Betty White?  She is really funny.

    [ Parent ]
    Ferraro may not vote for Obama (none / 0) (#185)
    by AX10 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:20:39 PM EST
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/19/ferraro-suggests-she-may-not-vote-for-obama/

    [ Parent ]
    I Guess Calling Someone a Racist (none / 0) (#186)
    by BDB on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:36:11 PM EST
    individually or collectively is not a good way to win his or her vote.  Hmmm, who would've known?

    [ Parent ]
    My favorite Dolly Parton quote. (none / 0) (#188)
    by Iphie on Mon May 19, 2008 at 06:19:22 PM EST
    When asked if it bothered her when people made dumb blonde jokes about her. "I'm not offended by dumb blonde jokes because I know that I'm not dumb. I also know I'm not blonde."

    [ Parent ]
    Geena Davis (5.00 / 3) (#75)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:27:52 PM EST
    she at least has as much experience as Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Geena yes! (5.00 / 1) (#101)
    by felizarte on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:37:56 PM EST
    She's very intelligent.  She at least had experience acting as president.

    [ Parent ]
    Loved Geena As Commander-In-Chief!! (none / 0) (#105)
    by PssttCmere08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:40:05 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Very good choice! (none / 0) (#191)
    by splashy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:53:15 PM EST
    She's a winner, hands down.

    [ Parent ]
    Delores Huerta (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:11:38 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Naw (none / 0) (#44)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:14:35 PM EST
    too much of a bitter culture warrior.  


    [ Parent ]
    too aggressive (5.00 / 3) (#54)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:19:20 PM EST
    she needs to giggle more.  And smile--because she'd be so much prettier if she smiled.

    [ Parent ]
    Be nice. (none / 0) (#55)
    by oculus on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:20:43 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    it was snark, my friend! (none / 0) (#62)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:23:19 PM EST
    And since when have I ever been nice?

    [ Parent ]
    Mine was also snark. (none / 0) (#72)
    by oculus on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:25:40 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I know you are (5.00 / 2) (#83)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:30:25 PM EST
    but what am I?

    The new KY poll, just posted, is interesting.  She wins just about every single group, including the ones Obama is supposed to shine in.  

    I have never understood why they include polling based on Obama and McCain's age.  What a strange metric.

    [ Parent ]

    Then how about ... (none / 0) (#49)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:18:11 PM EST
    ... J-Lo? She's an hispanic woman, and she's been insured against damages - well, part of her, anyway.

    [ Parent ]
    Too Bad Carmen Miranda Isn't Still Alive :) (none / 0) (#87)
    by PssttCmere08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:32:32 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    So will the MSM (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by abfabdem on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:45:30 PM EST
    talk only of Oregon and pretend Kentucky did not happen?  Kind of how the NC results were trumpeted as a sign of his inevitability but WV was glossed over?

    [ Parent ]
    I Vote Top Of The Ticket And Endorsements Don't (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by MO Blue on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:51:51 PM EST
    mean squat to me. Since I already doubt that Obama is firmly committed to Choice, an anti-abortion VP would make me even more reluctant to vote for Obama. Other than that, it will be up to Obama himself to win me over and it will be an uphill climb. I doubt that Obama will chose Hillary for VP. I think he is expecting his surrogates (i.e. VP, Edwards etc.) to win over Clinton's supporters without doing the hard work himself. That strategy would not work with me and I'm not sure it will work with others. Might just be too late to repair the bridges he and his campaign has burned.

    [ Parent ]
    how many flag pins will it take? (none / 0) (#69)
    by Josey on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:25:09 PM EST
    for Obama to change the hearts and minds of the working class. I don't even think Obama sitting behind the wheel of a NASCAR would help.
    Wait until the GOP begins airing Obama's own bitter remarks about Dems being racists, clinging to their guns and religion. Ouch!
    And what was Obama clinging to while he sat in those pews for 20 years listening to Wright's racist rants?  It really causes me to wonder, considering all the race-baiting and false charges of racism from ObamaInc.


    [ Parent ]
    I Don't Think There Are Enuff Flag Pins In All (5.00 / 2) (#109)
    by PssttCmere08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:42:05 PM EST
    of China!!  O/T...hope we have all said a prayer for those poor people, and for the ones in burma.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm seeing a picture in my mind (5.00 / 2) (#127)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:04:01 PM EST
    of Obama entirely covered in flag pins.

    LOL.

    [ Parent ]

    A Flight Suit Made Of Flag Pins (5.00 / 1) (#147)
    by MO Blue on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:23:22 PM EST
    Got to get Tweety's leg tingle to go so on overload that it shorts out.

    [ Parent ]
    Josey, unfortunately don't expect.... (none / 0) (#159)
    by NO2WONDERBOY on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:43:32 PM EST
    anyone to chastize him for anything. An info strip on CNN (yes, I know!)at 12:30pm read "THE DELEGATES GO TO OBAMA,THE VOTERS CHOOSE CLINTON"(highlight mine).
    I think it sums up the whole charade in a nut shell.
    The DNC keeps talking about "punishing FL.& MI for 'disobeying the RULES; WE NEED TO START DOLING OUT SOME PUNISHMENT TO THE DNC FOR ITS MISERABLE FAILURE AND IT'S COVERT/OVERT PREFERENCE FOR ONE CANDIDATE OVER THE OTHER!
    SUGGESTIONS, ANY ONE?

    BANANA REPUBLIC POLITICS AT THEIR BEST!!! To coin a Howard Dean expression:yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
    I didn't think I would ever see the day!

    [ Parent ]

    Looks right to me (5.00 / 3) (#2)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:51:31 PM EST
    Except, the Already voted/Likely to vote crosstabs for OR seem strange. Or not--maybe that's why Hillary isn't going back.

    If the likely voters of OR (none / 0) (#14)
    by oculus on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:01:08 PM EST
    are really as tertiary-educated as the OR newspaper claims, I guess SUSA is correct.  But I surely do wish they are wrong.  Did Clinton say she isn't returnig to OR?  

    [ Parent ]
    Not sure what the point would be of returning (5.00 / 3) (#18)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:04:23 PM EST
    because votes are pretty much cast.  Where is she campaigning today--KY?  She did some pretty big events in OR and put herself out there big-time.  She's never been one to write off a state, and her peeps on the ground are out burning shoe leather. (Man, I'm hip!)

    But, again, let's keep in mind how wrong polls can be.  And I mean that as in, "holy crap, it can go either way," not as in "it's tightening down for a blow-out."

    In short...we have been lied to before.

    [ Parent ]

    Both HRC and Bill are (5.00 / 3) (#27)
    by liminal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:07:59 PM EST
    campaigning hard in Kentucky today.  It's a big state.  I hope the coalfields turn out for her!

    [ Parent ]
    I'd love to see another (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:35:39 PM EST
    40%+ win for her.

    I don't know how anyone yet to vote could possibly choose O with his effort to call it a "win" for himself without enough delegates to get the nomination, and at this stage where there's so little time left for the people to make their choice, and before MI and FL are resolved. There isn't anything more capable of saying, "this is about ME, not YOU".


    [ Parent ]

    Declaring a win for himself.... (none / 0) (#163)
    by NO2WONDERBOY on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:53:12 PM EST
    80,000 people to go see him; fighting with McCain, all electoral inevitability tactics.
    Campaigning in Montana this afternoon, he was promising UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE FOR EVERY MAN, WOMAN AND CHILD among other things that sounded VERY FAMILIAR, hmmm I wonder who I've heard them from before?

    [ Parent ]
    All demos! (5.00 / 4) (#103)
    by Fabian on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:39:24 PM EST
    While getting the working class makes her look good vs Obama, nailing a wide demo makes her look good vs McCain.

    [ Parent ]
    Good point. (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by liminal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:48:56 PM EST
    I'm going to Ashland for some campaign stuff tonight.  I have a few extra yard signs, too, to plant along the way.

    [ Parent ]
    We will! (5.00 / 1) (#187)
    by owenaprhys on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:39:05 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I'm wondering what the value of campaigning in KY (none / 0) (#166)
    by elixir on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:00:19 PM EST
    makes at this point.  She's clearly going to clean his clock, why more?  Is there value, at this time, to how much she cleans his clock?

    [ Parent ]
    Is Robert Byrd's endorsement (none / 0) (#23)
    by oculus on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:06:08 PM EST
    today aimed at KY voters formerly known as racists?  I wonder.

    [ Parent ]
    I have to restrain (none / 0) (#41)
    by magisterludi on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:13:30 PM EST
    myself from some good Robert Byrd jokes.

    [ Parent ]
    That just made my stomach turn (none / 0) (#50)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:18:16 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I'm thinking he gave his (none / 0) (#88)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:32:32 PM EST
    endorsement to Obama in exchange for his promise that he would put Hillary at the top of his short list for VP.

    Byrd doesn't need anything from Obama other than his promise to unite the party.

    [ Parent ]

    I love him for a lot, but he lied (none / 0) (#139)
    by Cream City on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:14:31 PM EST
    just like Edwards, as Byrd also recently said that he would not be endorsing anyone.

    Help me, Southern women here.  I thought the Southern code of chivalry and all that required that a man be reliable, be taken at his word.  What's with this saying one thing on Sunday and another thing on Monday with these guys?  Sounds like too many guys I dated, not like Southern men . . . at least, according to the mythology.

    [ Parent ]

    These guys are politicians. (5.00 / 1) (#142)
    by masslib on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:17:07 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Ever hear of (none / 0) (#158)
    by Molly Pitcher on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:43:05 PM EST
    Rhett Butler?  Not really the steadiest of fellows.  Then there was the weak-kneed one Scarlet thought she loved.

    [ Parent ]
    Aha, of course. (none / 0) (#165)
    by Cream City on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:58:08 PM EST
    Much makes more sense when seen through the lens of Gone With the Wind.  Got it.  No different from Northern guys, just maybe better at constructing mythologies. :-)

    [ Parent ]
    Ashely, oh Ashely . . . (none / 0) (#181)
    by nycstray on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:06:41 PM EST
    {puts back of hand on forehead and swoons}

    [ Parent ]
    EEP! Ashley that is! lol!~ (none / 0) (#182)
    by nycstray on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:07:24 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I Would Love For HIllary To Win OR In A (5.00 / 3) (#98)
    by PssttCmere08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:36:34 PM EST
    squeaker, even.  Or at least keep her loss to around 5 points.  I was hoping that OR voters would vote for the most qualified candidate, not the supposed rock star/messiah.

    [ Parent ]
    at the town hall Hillary held in Oregon (none / 0) (#176)
    by thereyougo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:48:49 PM EST
    people said they were going to attend the huge Obama rally, the one that 70,000 attended, to decided who to vote for.

    Hopefully many of those decided in Hillary's favor.
    as the undecideds have been.

    [ Parent ]

    oops in a hurry again (none / 0) (#177)
    by thereyougo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:50:32 PM EST
    meant to say:

    Hopefully many of those undecideds go in Hillary's favor,as the undecideds have been.

    [ Parent ]

    That's what I'm hoping for, too. (none / 0) (#189)
    by Iphie on Mon May 19, 2008 at 06:24:17 PM EST
    Keep it close in OR, and really run up her numbers in KY -- give her a boost in popular vote totals.

    [ Parent ]
    The stated numbers seem out of whack. (none / 0) (#25)
    by wurman on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:07:06 PM EST
    1700 respondents.
    1539 registered voters
     627 have already voted

    Oddly, 161 of the group can't even vote.

    Only 40.7 percent of the registered have actually voted, so how can SUSA claim that "Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points among the 77% of likely voters who have already returned a ballot."

    And yes, I looked at the tabs.

    [ Parent ]

    It's 627 who have either voted (none / 0) (#26)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:07:56 PM EST
    or are likely to vote.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama getting 75% since their last poll (none / 0) (#79)
    by ineedalife on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:29:23 PM EST
    Their last poll had the actual vote tied. The ARG poll had that number too. Since then Obama has to be getting 75% of the vote to get to these numbers. Of course, things could be floating within the margin of error.

    [ Parent ]
    627 is not 77 percent of any number on the page. (none / 0) (#106)
    by wurman on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:40:29 PM EST
    "Of them, 627 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already mailed their ballot or to be likely to return a ballot . . . ."  Some unknown number have returned a ballot & another unknown number have promised they will return a ballot & those 2 unknowns equal 627.

    My point is that 627 is neither 77 percent of the number interviewed or the number of registered voters.

    [ Parent ]

    Seems Right To Me Too (none / 0) (#77)
    by BDB on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:28:42 PM EST
    Oregon has never been Clinton country.  She's never topped 45% in polls and that's not a good sign.

    It will be interesting to see what comes out of the popular vote totals this evening.  That's the one metric Clinton is aiming for and Kentucky will help her, which is why I think she's spent so much time there - she needs to drive up turnout.  Most of Oregon has already voted.  How much KY will help her, of course, will depend on how many Obama gets back in Oregon.  Jay Cost has Kentucky with fewer voters than Oregon, but that may not be true.  He's basing it off Kerry's vote and Kerry got less than half of the registered democrats in KY to vote for him.  

    [ Parent ]

    I don't understand Obama's strength in OR (none / 0) (#190)
    by BostonIndependent on Mon May 19, 2008 at 07:07:54 PM EST
    What's the analysis here? (None of the stuff that I've read makes much sense to me yet. CA migrant creative class types, active door-to-door campaigning, lingering Hillary/Bill antipathy from the 90's.. I guess I just don't get it. I'd have thought his vote for the Bush-Cheney energy bill, LNG issues compared with soccer moms and women/working class identifying with Hillary would have made this closer. I thought IN would turn out different too - but understandably machine politics had a hand in that outcome. What's making this difference in OR?)

    [ Parent ]
    Shrinking working class (none / 0) (#194)
    by waldenpond on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:30:57 PM EST
    expanding business class.  Nike, Intel etc. corporate headquarters.  Universities, some excellent hospitals.  Small town main street in CA? think... appliance repair shops, fast food.  Small town main street in OR? think... boutique coffee shop and small art galleries, a lot of parks.

    [ Parent ]
    well, somebody is wrong (5.00 / 3) (#6)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:55:55 PM EST
    In OR but we'll see.  One thing is a lot of people use cell phones, on do not call lists too, although I suspect Obama will win by more than 13% in OR, mainly due to the GOTV effort by these people.  They are highly aggressive to the point where I live people have been outraged by their canvassing behavior.  

    Point of Info (none / 0) (#148)
    by Emma on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:23:47 PM EST
    Do not call lists do not apply to political campaigns.

    [ Parent ]
    do actually (none / 0) (#161)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:48:19 PM EST
    Both campaigns got into trouble in Oregon for doing robo calls.  It's state law.

    [ Parent ]
    wow, and I wonder how many people he buses (none / 0) (#178)
    by thereyougo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:53:01 PM EST
    to these states, tons probably.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah (5.00 / 6) (#7)
    by Steve M on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:56:17 PM EST
    This looks more like what I would expect.

    I await many more comments about how Kentucky voters are a bunch of racists and Oregon is the face of the New Democratic Majority.

    more (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:00:36 PM EST
    Oregon is a true objective analysis media blackout.  Finding out any candidates position is a real deep dig.  I'm serious, I've never seen so much fluff in my life and for a supposedly highly active political state.  

    The local papers pretty much across the state, except for the Salem statesman journal just do not go into any real position or policy detail for a decision to be made on actual positions, votes.

    [ Parent ]

    Was hoping for mid-single digits in OR (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by davnee on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:12:28 PM EST
    Oh well.  Maybe Suffolk will be right this time around.  Two ways to look at this result, if it holds:  One, he didn't build on his existing advantage despite the media inevitability meme and outspending her; or Two, she didn't erode his white base of latte sippers.

    My guess is that the media will do a happy dance on her grave no matter what the result is tomorrow.

    For me, I'm curious on turnout.  Will the Clinton romp in KY outpace the strong Obama victory in OR?  She needs some popular vote gravy tomorrow to keep her own momentum (such as it is) for PR.

    I'm also curious on exit poll results.  Which base is more hardened against the other Dem going into the fall?

    AAs won't be a chunk of those exit polls (none / 0) (#48)
    by Kathy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:17:53 PM EST
    OR aa population is less than 2% last time I checked (haha, it crosses the 2% threshold when the campaigns are in town!).  KY is around 7.5%  (national average is closer to 13%)

    And, again from memory, I think OR's aa pop was even lower before they accepted Katrina refugees.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm curious about white voters (none / 0) (#93)
    by davnee on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:34:23 PM EST
    What are the attitudes of working class whites versus the latte liberal class?  When thinking about electability in the Fall you have to take into consideration whether a primary preference is simply a preference or a veto statement.  That is very hard to gauge.  My gut tells me that white liberals are more likely expressing a preference and the white working class is more likely making a veto statement.  Like I said that is hard to gauge but terribly important to consider if getting a Dem elected POTUS is the actual goal here.

    What has been overlooked in places like PA and NC is that BO's white base in the suburbs and with indies is slipping.  Unfortunately, OR does not give us a good test of that particular subset of white voters.  And neither does KY for that matter.

    [ Parent ]

    Some of these latte drinkers are having to cut (none / 0) (#132)
    by PssttCmere08 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:08:33 PM EST
    down on their latte consumption brought on by the state of the economy and the high price of gas.
    Let's assume they are distressed over that; so for whom would you vote?  It seems the best person to begin solving these problems is Hillary.
    It is time for people to get past shallow reasons for voting a candidate and get to the heart of the matter.

    [ Parent ]
    Latte/espresso (none / 0) (#157)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:38:39 PM EST
    Honestly though, Portland does have the best coffee roasting company for espresso, Stump Town.  If you ever do go there, have an espresso there.  So, the Portland folks are espresso and cap drinkers.  Which is much better in the aesthetic and taste department.  

    [ Parent ]
    Florida (5.00 / 4) (#51)
    by glennmcgahee on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:18:33 PM EST
    I was listening to Cspan this morning as they took calls regarding the primaries, etc. One of the callers said that she was from Florida and that she was an Obama supporter but that she didn't go vote that day because the DNC said the elction wouldn't matter. If that is the case, I wonder why she felt like she didn't need to vote on ANY of the state of Florida issues and local elections that were on the ballot. As a matter of fact, we had 5 or 6 state referendums that were on that ballot. My town had our mayoral and commissioners all on the ballot and it was the same all over the state. But she didn't vote because she couldn't support Obama? I'm calling her a liar. If these voters care only about that one race, they are no good for the party anyway.

    That would be called lying (5.00 / 3) (#63)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:23:27 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Exactly (5.00 / 2) (#64)
    by Stellaaa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:23:29 PM EST
    This is one of the reasons the State Dems wanted to keep that date to get turnout.  Total lie.  No self respecting Dem would not have voted in that primary.  

    [ Parent ]
    Was her name Michelle or Donna? (5.00 / 2) (#121)
    by JavaCityPal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:52:50 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    the FL primary wasn't promoted (none / 0) (#144)
    by Josey on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:19:57 PM EST
    by local radio and TV in various areas. That's why a zillion Floridians went to their precincts on 2/5 Super Tuesday.
    Supposedly, before the primary, Obama sent a memo that Florida didn't matter, but I haven't found it. Remember - after the primary, Al Sharpton and other AA leaders came to FL to protest that voters didn't know the date of the primary (Jan. 29).

    Hillary press release about Obama violating DNC rules by airing TV ads in Florida:

    Jan. 21, 2008
    >>>>Just last week the Obama campaign snubbed the people of Florida in a memo that stated that Florida did not matter in the nominating process. After consecutive losses in New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada, they appear to be changing course.
    Senator Obama's flagrant disregard for the pledge that he signed is disturbing and calls the integrity of the pledge into question.

    [ Parent ]

    yeah and the democratic party could do without (none / 0) (#179)
    by thereyougo on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:58:15 PM EST
    reformed Republicans. I'm actually sick of them. them and the so called C-class Xers.

    [ Parent ]
    Now I understand the rules: (5.00 / 6) (#99)
    by OrangeFur on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:37:23 PM EST
    Clinton wins the white vote by 20+ points in some states: Voters in those states must be racists.

    Obama win the male vote by 28 points in Oregon and a similar percentage in Wisconsin: Oregon and Wisconsin voters are high-information, educated, sophisticated voters.

    Perfect comment. (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by masslib on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:41:10 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Obama never considers (5.00 / 1) (#110)
    by Josey on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:43:57 PM EST
    his white problem could be a result of his race-baiting and "bitter" remarks about white Dems being "racists."
    But when Hillary reports the exit polling data - she's a "racist."

    [ Parent ]
    Sigh. Not so in Wisconsin (none / 0) (#145)
    by Cream City on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:20:31 PM EST
    which is just at the median in all states in educational levels.  You're thinking of Madison.  It is not Wisconsin; we call Madison the 51st state.

    Your same "high-info" voters in Wisconsin went back to the polls only a couple of weeks after the primary and ran off the state supreme court our first AA justice, a fine man, owing to an entirely awful Willie Horton-like campaign here that put on the court an awful white guy.  And last year, your same "high-info" voters resoundingly elected to the high court here a lower-court judge censured for ethics code violations.  Etc., etc.

    I've gone into what happened in Wisconsin in the primary before here; search archives or jsonline.com.  But do not rely on it being an Obama state, and it might even be a red state this fall; polls now have Obama and Clinton tied but McCain ahead of both by several points in Wisconsin.

    [ Parent ]

    Does anybody know (none / 0) (#5)
    by bjorn on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:55:11 PM EST
    based on these stats, who will win the night in popular vote?

    I spent a wee bit of time (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by liminal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:05:18 PM EST
    looking up the numbers from 2004 Democratic primaries in both states.  Here are the vote totals:

    Oregon: 350,157
    Kentucky: 229,916

    I'm not sure whether Oregon was already voting by mail in 2004, or not, but I think that Oregon is likely to have a higher turnout of Democratic voters, though Clinton's Kentucky margin will probably cover the spread.

    Using those numbers above, a 13% margin should net Obama about 45,000 votes in Oregon, while a 30% margin in Kentucky should net Clinton about 70,000 votes in Kentucky. I'm sure that turnout will be greater in both primaries, but it's hard to tell by how much.  

    [ Parent ]

    The 2004 primary is not what to look at (none / 0) (#29)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:08:46 PM EST
    you need to look at the 2004 vote for Kerry.

    [ Parent ]
    2004 primary results - Kentucky (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by liminal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:19:00 PM EST
    TOTAL VOTES CAST:   229,916  
    14.5% of registered voters  

    John F. Kerry     138,175  60.1%  
    John  Edwards      33,403  14.5%  
    Uncommitted        21,199   9.2%  
    Joe  Lieberman     11,062   4.8%
    Howard  Dean        8,222   3.6%  
    Wesley K. Clark     6,519   2.8%  
    Al  Sharpton        5,022   2.2%
    Dennis J. Kucinich  4,508   2.0%  
    Lyndon H. La Rouche 1,806   0.8%  

    [ Parent ]

    The 2004 PRIMARY is irrelevant (none / 0) (#66)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:23:46 PM EST
    It was essentially uncontested.

    Look at either Kerry's 2004 vote or the Gubernatorial primary from last year. 348,238 for the 2007 primary and 712,733 votes for Kerry.

    You can bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow will be between the two.

    [ Parent ]

    Sorry, I misunderstood. (5.00 / 1) (#97)
    by liminal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:35:40 PM EST
    For whatever reason, I thought you were referring to Kerry's primary vote totals.  

    [ Parent ]
    940,000 votes for Kerry in Or (none / 0) (#80)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:29:26 PM EST
    712,000 votres for Kerry in Kentucky.

    If SUSA is right, 113k spread for Obama in Oregon.

    If Susa is right, 227k vote spread for clinton in Kentucky.

    [ Parent ]

    Yup. (none / 0) (#86)
    by andgarden on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:31:33 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    2004 election: (none / 0) (#118)
    by oculus on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:49:46 PM EST
    I assume Kerry won OR.  Who won KY?  How any electoral college votes for each?

    [ Parent ]
    Bush won Kentucky (5.00 / 1) (#125)
    by liminal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:00:13 PM EST
    By 20 points in 2004. Kerry won Oregon by 4%.

    Oregon has 7 electoral votes; Kentucky has 8 electoral votes.  

    [ Parent ]

    Margin of victory (none / 0) (#67)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:24:50 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    2004 primary results - Oregon (none / 0) (#61)
    by liminal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:22:50 PM EST
    John F. Kerry - 283,513  (78.63%)
    Dennis J. Kucinich - 58,282  (16.29%)
    Other - 10,150 (2.75%)
    Lyndon H. LaRouche Jr. - 8,362 (2.33%)

    [ Parent ]
    Oh my... (none / 0) (#85)
    by masslib on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:31:02 PM EST
    Kucinich took 16% of the vote?  This will be a very hard state for Hill.  BO should crack 20 points.

    [ Parent ]
    OR stats (none / 0) (#45)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:14:56 PM EST
    There are 871,922 registered Dems in OR.  Assuming a turnout like a general election of 70%, 620345 D ballots cast.  Assume 2% for "other" makes it 598139 total.

    So assume SUSA is right (13%):

    Obama   376827
    Clinton 221311
    Diff:  +155516 Obama

    [ Parent ]

    Well (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Steve M on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:21:40 PM EST
    Kentucky has a whopping 1.6 million registered Democrats.

    Kerry only won 71% of the Democratic votes in the 2004 general election though.  The open question is how many of the Democrats who did not vote for Kerry would be open to voting for Hillary in November.

    I'm pretty sure Kentucky is not on Obama's electoral map in any scenario.

    [ Parent ]

    turnout (none / 0) (#164)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:56:38 PM EST
    vote by mail has a very high turnout and we'll see but the oregon elections on Friday already hit 30% and they are expecting 70% turnout.  See my other comment on expected turnout.

    If anything this should convince people vote by mail is the way to go.  I'm in Oregon and I love it...any candidate I don't know, ballot initiative I have weeks to research it all out before I vote.  No voting booth surprises.

    [ Parent ]

    KY stats (none / 0) (#156)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:36:51 PM EST
    There are 1,629,845 registered Democrats

    turnout is expected at 25%

    407,461 expected to vote

    Edwards:  24448

    383013 left over

    Clinton:  252626

    Obama:  122238

    +130387 Clinton

    Probably is now a vote for Edwards is a vote for Obama in essence.

    Edwards:  32597

    So, Oregon will put Obama ahead in the popular vote it appears unless they can increase KY turnout extensively above 25%.

    [ Parent ]

    Hm (none / 0) (#167)
    by Steve M on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:04:45 PM EST
    Only 25% turnout?

    I think if you check the numbers, you will find that in most states, 25% is roughly the number of TOTAL registered voters who have voted in the Democratic primary.

    Turnout this year has generally been over 50% of registered Democrats, depending on the state of course.

    [ Parent ]

    25% turnout (none / 0) (#175)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:46:47 PM EST
    I was pretty surprised but that's what the SoS was reporting as if that was a huge and unusual turn out and that was D voters.

    I sure as hell hope it's higher than that for that sure explains why that state is always red with that low of turnout.

    Anyway, that's where I got it from, SoS.

    [ Parent ]

    SUSA survey (none / 0) (#183)
    by ineedalife on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:09:26 PM EST
    has 43.3% of registered voters as likely voters in primary. So the number is probably close to 70% turnout amongst Democrats. That is probably too high but it will be much higher than 25%.

    [ Parent ]
    way off (none / 0) (#170)
    by Robert Oak on Mon May 19, 2008 at 04:09:14 PM EST
    by Friday already 30% of the ballots were turned in.  
    It's turnout.  I did an analysis too and think it will hit 70% in Oregon and only 25% in KY.

    People, vote by mail is awesome because it makes it so much easier to vote but in this case, it's a real downside obviously.

    The oregon elections will probably update soon just how many ballots are turned in, but brace yourself for a very high turnout.  If anything people in KY should be reminded of this and get themselves to the polls to push it up past 25%.

    [ Parent ]

    Well (none / 0) (#9)
    by Steve M on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:59:32 PM EST
    Kentucky is bigger than Oregon and appears to have many more registered Democrats.  It seems like a given that Hillary will win the night in terms of popular vote, since it is very difficult to imagine that her margin in Kentucky won't be bigger than his margin in Oregon.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh clinton almost certainly (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:59:56 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Excellent, won't Obama look (none / 0) (#12)
    by bjorn on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:00:45 PM EST
    silly then declaring victory of any kind?

    [ Parent ]
    According to Huff Post headline (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by oculus on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:03:31 PM EST
    he won't be declaring victory.  (I didn't read the article and the headline is frequently no reflective of the content of the article.)

    [ Parent ]
    No, he's gone meta (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by