SUSA predicts Clinton 62-31, with other (Edwards is on the ballot) 5. The demos are Clinton winning whites (89% of the vote) 67-26-6 and Obama winning African Americans (10% of the vote) 82-18 (Edwards gets zero).

SUSA has in the past underestimated the African American vote and the margins by which Obama will win them. So I will adjust those numbers to 12% of the vote and a 90-10 win for Obama. But I think Edwards gets a lot less of the white vote than predicted too. I give Clinton half of his vote. so, doing my adjusted math, my Kentucky prediction is Clinton 63.4, Obama 33.4, Edwards 3.2.

Give us your Kentucky predictions and any other thoughts. We'll do an Oregon thread later. This is an Open Thread.

Oh this is funny as hell. You know what offended Publius and John Cole about Richard Cohen's column? An insult to Robert E. Lee. I kid you not.

By Big Tent Democrat

A NY Times editorial urges Congress to appropriate full funding to the Second Chance Act. Especially noteworthy is the reminder that some state governments are already making a serious effort to reduce recidivism with programs that help offenders build a new life after their release from prison.

In Illinois — where the inmate population has doubled since the late 1980s — Gov. Rod Blagojevich has begun a promising re-entry program that could become a national model. The comprehensive plan includes drug treatment, job training and placement and a variety of community-based initiatives designed to help newly released inmates forge successful postprison lives.

Illinois is also revamping its parole system by hiring more parole officers and changing regulations so that parolees who commit lesser violations are dealt with in their community — with counseling, drug treatment or more vigilant monitoring — rather than being reflexively sent back to prison.

It was once a common belief that offenders who "paid their debt to society" were entitled to a second chance. Those feelings have been overtaken by a "lock 'em up forever" mentality, but the reality is that prisoners are released every day even as prison populations continue to grow. If we don't help them build new lives, we increase the risk that they will commit new crimes. Funding the Second Chance Act is a no-brainer.

Richard Cohen is especially silly today. His entire column is ridiculous, but this is the best (as in worst) part:

I, too, have taken my shots at Clinton. I have done so not because of any sexism but for reasons having to do with character.

Yes we remember Dick. Bob Somerby told us about it:

Kentucky demographics favor Hillary Clinton.

Obama has a slight chance in Louisville, an urban area, but very little elsewhere in the state.

Trade with China is important to KY since its farmers grow tobacco for China and sell them a lot of Maker's Mark and Wild Turkey bourbon. About $300 million a year's worth.

Kentucky, like other states, will set a record for voting tomorrow, but new registratons are lower there than we've ssen in other states.

A record 2.8 million Kentuckians are registered to vote in the primary election. Of those, 1.6 million are Democrats. And, despite the close presidential primary, the number of new registered voters hasn't skyrocketed. In the past six months, 16,000 people have registered, 13,000 of them as Democrats.

A map of Kentucky is below the fold.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, in association with the Republican media firm Greener and Hook, recently completed a survey of rural voters in 13 battleground states, on behalf of the Center for Rural Strategies. The results:

• Hillary - McCain: tied (46% each)
• McCain - Obama: McCain by 9 (50 - 41%)

The message the Republican pollsters have for Republicans:

The competitiveness reflects the on-going national problems facing the Republican brand, as well as the deep economic anxiety that is particularly acute among rural families on one hand, balanced against doubts about Obama’s values.

Among the key findings:

The Supreme Court established a rule in 1950 that became known as the Feres Doctrine:

The United States is not liable under the Federal Tort Claims Act for injuries to members of the armed forces sustained while on active duty and not on furlough and resulting from the negligence of others in the armed forces.

Whatever merit the Feres Doctrine might have when applied to ordinary negligence claims, there is little reason to exempt military doctors from the same malpractice standards that permit civilian patients to recover compensation when a physician's careless acts or omissions cause harm or death.

Motivated by the death of Carmelo Rodriguez, whose skin cancer was misdiagnosed as a wart and left untreated, Rep. Maurice Hinchey will introduce a bill to permit those who serve to bring claims against the military for medical malpractice. (more ...)

Hillary Clinton isn't falling for the media meme that Obama will have the nomination sewn up tomorrow night.

"You can declare yourself anything, but if you don't have the votes, it doesn't matter," Clinton said Monday in a satellite interview. "This is nowhere near over."

Hillary's campaign is right behind her:

"Senator Obama's plan to declare himself the Democratic nominee tomorrow night in Iowa is a slap in the face to the millions of voters in the remaining primary states and to Senator Clinton's 17 million supporters," said Clinton communications chief Howard Wolfson. "Premature victory laps and false declarations of victory are unwarranted."

More...

I'm just getting in from work and haven't seen any news yet today. Thanks to Big Tent Democrat and TChris for their postings.

Here's another open thread until I get up to speed, which will could be a while.

Reminder: If you see a troublemaker or chatterer, don't fall for it. Respond with the words "site violator" and the posters name in the subject line. Leave the comment area blank. That way others will know not to respond and when I get to it I can delete the comments and ban the poster if I agree.

To new users: While all points of view are welcome here, we don't let new posters post more than 10 comments a day and chatterers are limited to 4 a day. URL's must be in html format or they skew the site and your comment will be deleted. Use the link button at the top of your comment box to paste in the url or got to tinyurl.com

Finally, no race-baiting and no calling anyone a racist. Read the comment rules.

I post this one to annoy. From Ras:

Obama 44
McCain 45

Clinton 50
McCain 43

Let the insults from Obama supporters begin. Oh, let's make this an Open Thread. I am out for a while. I think J and Chris will be around though.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments now closed

More rational minds than those prevailing at the U.S. Attorney's office in Los Angeles are speaking out against the ill-conceived prosecution of Lori Drew:

If the charges against Drew are upheld, it will be a serious blow to anyone who wants to remain anonymous on the Internet, said Brock Meeks, a CDT spokesman. "Everybody that is sympathetic to this case and saying finally we've got something to nail her on here, they're not looking hard enough at the fact that the Justice Department blundered by using this anti-hacker law," he said.

The charges suggest that anyone who uses a fake name to sign up for a Web service like Yahoo or Gmail could be charged with a federal crime, Meeks said. "If that's a federal crime, then I'm certainly guilty of a federal crime and there are probably a million other people out there who are probably also guilty."

The CDT, an advocacy group that promotes open Internet use, will hold a press conference on the issue Tuesday morning, Meeks said.

The law was intended to provide a vehicle for prosecution of cases like this, not for the federal prosecution of harassment of one neighbor by another.

I believe this is a political mistake by the Obama camp:

Barack Obama will reach a significant milestone Tuesday as he marches toward the Democratic nomination for president — a majority of pledged delegates at stake in all the primaries and caucuses. . . . "A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakable message — the people have spoken, and they are ready for change," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe wrote in a memo to supporters Monday.

The Obama campaign will ignore Florida and Michigan tomorrow night. There simply is no getting around that. and for what? To declare victory on May 20 as opposed to June 3? This is simply stupid. The Associate Press of course is on Obama's side on this, but actually harms him:

Her campaign is also trying to change the math by getting the delegates seated from the Michigan and Florida primaries. . . . The Democratic National Committee's rules panel is scheduled to address the issue May 31. If any of the delegates are reinstated, it would increase the number needed to clinch the nomination.

By implication, the AP is saying Barack Obama is fighting AGAINST Florida and Michigan. That simply is not the headline Barack Obama should want.

By Big Tent Democrat

I get this info via e-mail

Tomorrow, Murat Kurnaz, a former Guantanamo detainee, will testify via video link before Rep. Delahunt’s Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight. The hearing will focus on refugees that are wrongfully imprisoned at Guantanamo. Witnesses will also include Lt. Colonel Stephen Abraham, who sat on CSRT panels and has since come out to say that the proceedings are fixed, and attorneys for men held at Guantanamo.

Information on the hearing can be found on the committee’s website. If you are unable to attend, the hearing will be webcast on the Subcommittee’s website.