As I have stated repeatedly for a month now, it is my view that Barack Obama will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee. And it is time Barack Obama starts acting like he believes that. That means doing things that will help him win in November. I have talked about his need to unify the Democratic Party, address his problems with working class voters of all stripes (except African Americans of course) and, the issue of the upcoming week - show respect to the voters of Florida and Michigan. Today, John Dickerson writes:

The math is relentless, yet Obama hasn't won yet, and Hillary Clinton shows no sign of stopping. She will travel to Florida on Wednesday to argue that he wants to win the nomination by disenfranchising the state's Democratic primary voters, a visit that can only damage him in a swing state crucial to Obama's chances in November.

(Emphasis supplied.) [More . . .]

The LA Times sent out a "breaking news" e-mail saying "Clinton money shocker! Posts at 6 A.M. Eastern 3 AM Pacific."

It published its scoop here. Then it sent out another e-mail saying:

Due to a mathematical error, Hillary Clinton's loans to herself were counted twice in this morning's item on her campaign debt, which is $20 million not $31 million. We will be publishing a corrected item asap, but wanted to alert you as quickly as possible.

Never mind....

Here's the final thread tonight, and remember, TalkLeft may be down tomorrow from 9am ET for several hours -- there's a chance a backup will be in place which would mean only 10 minute outages per hour through the morning, but I'm not counting on it. This is a network wide issue, not a TL server issue.

Thanks to all for the congratulations on earlier threads to Nic, the TL kid who was sworn in today as a Colorado lawyer. The ceremony was led by all of the Justices of the Colorado Supreme Court, with a federal judge and others presenting remarks.

When it came time for the oath, they asked all the existing lawyers in the audience who were there with their kids being sworn in to stand with their kids and retake the oath. So the TL kid and I got to take the oath together.

Here's a photo of us right afterwards. [More...]

Who won bigger in today's primaries? 100% of the vote is in from Kentucky, 66% is in from Oregon:

• Hillary won 51 delegates so far, Obama 35.
• Hillary earned 650,000 votes, Obama has gotten 475,000.

Hillary won a lot more votes and more delegates tonight.

She's tonight's winner.

Kentucky: 100% of vote:

• Hillary: 459,145 votes * 65% * 37 delegates
• Obama: 209,771 votes * 30% * 14 delegates
• Counties: Hillary wins all but 2

Oregon: 66% of votes in

• Obama: 272,000 votes * 58% * 21 delegates
• Hillary: 196,000 votes * 42% * 14 delegates
• Counties: Obama wins 16; Hillary wins 13 (1 tied, 4 still out)

More....

Via John Cole, who loved it, Ron Reagan said:

If Appalachia was a country, Hillary Clinton could be President.”

It is funny how Appalachia keeps growing for some Obama supporters. It now encompasses not only West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and parts of Pennsylvania and Ohio, but also California, Arizona, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Texas, Oklahoma, New York, Rhode Island and Florida.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Just in from our network provider...Some kind of critical issue requires maintenance that will have TalkLeft (and not just us) down Wednesday morning starting around 9am ET and continuing for several hours.

Just got an e-mail from Mochila, where we get our news headlines. They are in New York and write:

Please be advised that our hosting provider will be performing critical maintenance on a power cable tomorrow morning EDT. In anticipation of that, we are required to temporarily shut down real-time content feeds into our marketplace as of 5AM EDT tomorrow, May 21st.

Undoubtedly, there will be a lot of sites down tomorrow.

So, get your comments in tonight. I'll keep the threads going for a while tonight.

This is an open thread. Updates below:

Update (TL) 9:12 pm MT: 17% in, CNN joins NBC in projecting Obama the winner.

******

(Big Tent Demorat): My understanding is that the telephone polling in Oregon shows a double digit (56-43) Obama win. I personally am not going to stay up following it too closely.

For some reason I feel it is going to be closer than expected, say 9? But I have no basis for that.

In any event, CNN results board for your perusal. Here are the CNN Oregon Exit Polls. BTW, Obama STILL has a working class voter problem in Oregon, despite the claims of the Obama News Network (NBC), Clinton win voters earning 30k or less by 54-43. Clinton wins non-college voters by 54-44.

Again, talk about Oregon or anything you like. J. is out celebrating a real life triumph, the TL Kid became a full fledged lawyer today, taking to oath.

Night all. My usual post mortems in the morning.

By Big Tent Democrat

Update (TL): I'm back. A big thanks to BTD for keeping the threads going tonight. I'll be here for the duration.

Comments now closed.

I am really interested in how Obama deals with this expectation that he will sort of declare victory but not declare it. ESPECIALLY if he will mention Florida and Michigan.

I also love watching the Obama News Network (NBC) acting as if this is the biggest bestest night ever for the Obama campaign. They are so funny because now they are being so defensive that everyone knows they are the Obama News Network.

Talk about what you like. I am not live blogging any speeches. Never have and never will.

Ok, one thought, it is just weird that he is in Iowa, not Oregon. I do not get it. He could have done the speech right at 11 pm EST and been on all the local news shows. It is sort of a dis of Oregon isn't it?

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments now closed.

CNN, along with NBC, at the behest of the Barack Obama campaign, will pretend Florida and Michigan do not exist. They will declare that Barack Obama has won a majority of the pledged delegates in the Dem race. They will declare that 2.3 million voters in Florida and Michigan do not exist. This is not only outrageous of these news organizations, it is monumentally stupid of the Obama campaign.

I have stated repeatedly that I believe that Barack Obama will almost certainly be the nominee. That he will capture a majority of the pledged delegates. But he is pissing away Florida and making trouble for himself in Michigan he simply does not need. All to avoid one bad night of news coverage?

He has handed Hillary Clinton the most appealing battle cry a politician could possibly have - count the votes. Donna Brazile and Keith Olbermann and the other Obama surrogates can scream about the RULZ. Hillary Clinton can fight for the votes!

Just a supremely stupid move by the Barack Obama campaign.

By Big Tent Democrat

Comments now closed.

100% reporting

Clinton 65%, 459,144 votes
Obama 30%, 209,771 votes

That's a whuppin.

BTW, what did the Obama Memo predict for Kentucky? A 10 point loss if I recall.

BTW, do any of you at all doubt me that NBC will be totally in the tank for Obama against McCain? they want to talk about Oregon soooooo baaaad right now. I think Olbermann, Tweety and Russert will work till 2 am tonight so they can sing Obama's praises.

Finally, Horace Greeley is Obama's chance to win in November. Go west young Obama. You can't win NC, VA, WV, FL or Ohio. You CAN and SHOULD win Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. You can win a squeaker that way.

One of the stories Obama supporters like to tell us is that Obama will put North Carolina in play and Hillary can not. I think neither can put North Carolina in play. SUSA says I am wrong:

Obama 43
McCain 51

Clinton 49
McCain 43

According to SUSA, Clinton wins in North Carolina. Obama loses. So if North Carolina is part of the map changing, that seems to be an argument for Hillary Clinton. Not Barack Obama.

By Big Tent Democrat

She's starting now. I'll live-blog.

She's grateful. I want to say a special word about Ted Kennedy. He is one of the greatest progressive leaders in our party's history. He's my friend and inspiration and he's a hero to millions whose lives he has bettered. I'm proud to have stood by him in the Senate to provide health care and prevent discrimination against the sick. But that's just a snippet of his five decades in public service. He's been with us for our fight and we are with him for his.

Tonight we've achieved an important victory. Some of have said the campaign is over, your vote doesn't count. That didn't stop you. You've never given up on me because you know I'll never give up on you.

This is one of the closest races in modern history. We're winning the popular vote and I'm more determined than ever to keep going.[ More...]