We now have ARG joining Quinnipiac in putting Obama ahead in Florida. To me this is the most stunning and welcome development of the general election campaign and I am wondering how it happened. I have seen no major campaigning by Obama in Florida, no ad blitz, no nothing really, to explain it.

So I want to drill down into the numbers a bit to consider what is going on. The Q-Poll has the following demographic breakdown for Florida:

Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent. Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55.

Now that I've wasted my morning watching the vapid View, I'm going to work. I feel like I need to do penance, like write a slew of motions or go to two jails instead of one.

Your turn.

I've never watched an entire episode of the View (or Oprah or Ellen or any day time talk show.) But, I'm going to give it a shot today to watch Michelle Obama. I'll post my reactions (not a live transcript) here.

If you're watching the show, feel free to live-blog in comments. Please keep your comments on topic, which is her guest-hosting of the show. (If you just want to express your general opinions of her for other reasons or discuss sexism or Hillary, please do it elsewhere.)

Noon ET: The show begins, updates below.

Quinnipiac has terrific news for Barack Obama today. In Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac University polls show:

* Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
* Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.

(Emphasis supplied.) If these numbers are real and hold up, Obama will win in a landslide.

By Big Tent Democrat

The New York Times presents the new Michelle Obama. The campaign, as I noted here, has been carefully re-working her image since the end of the primary.

The new Michelle is softer, less lawyer-like and the focus is on her past successful efforts at helping minorities, both African-American and Latino, and working to better race relations.

....her husband’s presidential campaign is giving her image a subtle makeover, with a new speech in the works to emphasize her humble roots and a tough new chief of staff. On Wednesday, Mrs. Obama will do a guest turn on “The View,” the daytime talk show on ABC, with an eye toward softening her reputation.

Details below the fold, but let me state here, this post is not intended as criticism of Michelle Obama and gratuitous insults to her in comments will be deleted. Feel free to discuss your opinions as to the impact of her makeover on voters or its factual details, but angry, personal hostility to her is not acceptable. [More..]

Writing about the Steny Hoyer-led Democratic capitulation on FISA, Glenn Greenwald makes an important point:

This is about whether the Democrats who control the Congress are even minimally accountable in how they exercise that control, whether they'll be permitted to trample upon the most basic principles in order cravenly to preserve their own power. Right now, [Democrats] perceive that the only political cost comes from opposing the Far Right on matters of constitutional protections and civil liberties. Thus, they're willing -- eager -- to trample on those protections and liberties in order to protect their own power. That dynamic needs to be reversed. They need to know that there is a bigger price to pay when they betray the promises they repeatedly make, the principles they continuously espouse, and the duties that they have to preserve basic precepts of equality under the law and core constitutional protections.

This is true about EVERY issue, especially on Iraq. But I will say what Glenn will not - it starts with holding BARACK OBAMA to account. His silence about this proposed capitulation is deafening. Want to be the leader of the Party? Of the Nation? Senator Obama, the time is now. And let's start with a denunciation of this cowardly capitulation by the House Democratic leadership on FISA.

Speaking for me only

John McCain must worry that he's not capable of inspiring fear as effectively as other Republicans. How else do you explain his enlistment of Rudy Giuliani to help him condemn the Supreme Court decision that restored the right of habeas corpus for Guantanamo detainees?

In response to comments Barack Obama has made in support of the Supreme Court's ruling, the McCain campaign

sent around a statement from Mayor Rudy Giuliani. “Throughout this campaign, I have been very concerned that the Democrats want to take a step back to the failed policies that treated terrorism solely as a law enforcement matter rather than a clear and present danger,” Giuliani writes. “Barack Obama appears to believe that terrorists should be treated like criminals - a belief that underscores his fundamental lack of judgment regarding our national security and judgment necessary to protect the American people."

Neither McCain nor Giuliani appear to understand that habeas corpus and due process are "necessary to protect the American people." Obama does. He corrected the McCain camp's misinformation about the role that habeas corpus plays in our judicial system. [more ...]

Private investigator Anthony Pellicano has asked the court to grant him a new trial.

The motion claims that at least four jurors talked about the case among themselves without other jurors present and that one juror knew about an upcoming witness because her husband read a blog tracking the trial.

Background collected here.

The Des Moines Register has an update in the case of David Flores (discussed here).

[A]t least three people ... have independently come forward since Flores' appeals were exhausted in 2003 to say another man was likely responsible for Davis' death as a result of a gang-related fight. ... [Rob] Warden said he's never heard of an alleged wrongful conviction case in which three separate people came forward independently to name another suspect.

"There's an extremely high probability that he's innocent," said Warden, whose [Center on Wrongful Convictions at Northwestern University School of Law] has helped exonerate dozens of people. "The fact that you now have three people who don't have any connection to each other and no discernible motive to do anything but tell the truth is just extremely persuasive."

[more ...]

Obama and McCain in dead heat in Minnesota? Obama by 11 in Ohio? McCain by 4 in North Carolina? Does any of this make sense? Not to me frankly. But let's start with the best "news" first - the PPP Ohio poll:

Obama leads by equal margins among men and women, and has a four point lead with white voters while also holding a dominant 75-21 advantage with African Americans.

A Democrat has not won white voters in Ohio in a Presidential election since Bill Clinton in 1996. Obama leads by 11 DESPITE "only" winning African American voters (13% of the Ohio electorate according to the poll) by 75-21? No gender gap? Puhleeeaze. That said, it means something - to wit, Obama should fight as hard for Ohio as any swing state because he can win it and stop McCain dead in his tracks right there. McCain can NOT lose Ohio and win the Presidency in my estimation. More.

SWAT (Security with Advanced Technology) has let the cat out of the bag on some of the weapons purchased by the Denver Police Department for the August Democratic Convention:

Security With Advanced Technology, Inc. (NasdaqCM:SWAT - News) reported that its Veritas Tactical business segment has received a purchase order from the City and County of Denver, for the Company's recently introduced rifle launcher and pistol launcher as well as projectiles and associated accessories.

More...

This just in from the DNCC: The media walkthough in Denver that was canceled last week has been rescheduled for Tuesday, July 8 (received by e-mail, no link yet):

The Democratic National Convention Committee will host a media walk-through for national, local and online media outlets, including bloggers, interested in covering the 2008 Democratic National Convention on Tuesday, July 8, 2008 at the Pepsi Center in Denver. Registration and a continental breakfast will be available beginning at 8:00 AM MST, and the program will begin at 9:00 AM. A more detailed itinerary will be distributed to registered outlets closer to the event. The event is scheduled to conclude around 2:00 PM MST.

Please note that the DNCC is not the same group as the Denver Host Committee which failed to fully meet its fundraising deadline yesterday. [More...]